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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26827 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:21 PM

Coll,

Screw the off-topic restriction for the moment...just don't attack and just don't curse...with what you folks are facing in the next 48-72 hours...I don't even want to think about it.

Panthers will win...

Lon Giland edumacation aren't all dat bad...

I don't do fantasy football.

If Coop Ed or HF were around to help moderate I might feel differently.

Thank god Mike leaves everything up.

AND MIKE HAS BEEN DOING WHATEVER VOODOO HE DO TO KEEP US UP! THANKS MIKE!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dani
Weather Watcher


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26828 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:21 PM

The latest recon has lightening in the north wall of Ivan, what does this say, if anything? Is it strengthening again or just one of it's day/night cycles?

Thanks

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26829 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:23 PM

Quote:

Oh colleen you could be right,,,,,,,Tampa area ( where I live) could be back in the edge of the swath if the right things happen,,but if they do it has to be tonight into tomorrow. I dont think much will change at 11pm, maybe slightly east from what Im seeing and info I'm recieving but the 5am will really be the update to watch. OZ models and also how much the trough digs down into the n central gulf.
Ok now this is what I see going on, Im getting alittle worried about a small chance of it turning more N then NNE tomorrow afternoon instead of later tuesday night into Weds. Im not saying this will happen, but its there. Thing is this, 1st off there is a very strong trough in the rockies moving into the plains tonight and will start digging into the Ohio valley Tuesday night into Weds. There are 3 ridges right now, 1 near the Bahamas, 2nd over the ohio valley and 3rd over texas into the western gulf. Now the strong trough is pushing the ridge over texas alittle more to the se into the western gulf causing the weak trough over the norhern and ne gulf to dig alittle bit more. The main vortex is over n GA and is forcasted to be pushed NE ahead of the main trough. Thing is though it might be blocked by the ridge over the Ohio valley which is also pusing east due to the stronger trough to the west so it might not move out as fast and head more east and slowly to the carolinas digging down into the NE Gulf on Tuesday. Since it will be there, Ivan will then turn more N- NNE-NE sooner. So what do we have here then? Watch and see pretty much. If the trough moves to the NE then the ridge in the ohio valley will move behind it briefly between the troughs and keep this more NW into LA-AL area just beginning to feel the main trough. If the ridge moves east and blocks the weak trough while the ridge over the gulf pushes more east (which its doing now) this would cause more troughiness over the Ne gulf and steer Ivan sooner to the NE.




traditionally, when one puts up a quote, one replies to that quote...LOL!

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:24 PM)


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Elaine H
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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26830 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:25 PM

Scott, I guess it is worth repeating

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unknown
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26831 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:25 PM

Wishcasting to Tampa

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: dani]
      #26832 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:26 PM

Still has lightening??
Intense


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TampaDon
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason *DELETED* [Re: scottsvb]
      #26833 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:27 PM

Why did you delete your post ?.. it was pretty insightful I thought, and laid out many of the reasons I haven't taken built shelves out of the plywood in my garage yet!

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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: unknown]
      #26834 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:27 PM

Quote:

Wishcasting to Tampa




Dude.... you're just going to make it where you have to register to post... Chill!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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jth off
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: scottsvb]
      #26835 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:30 PM

Did I miss something...Why does everyone think there will be an east shift? From everything I see, he is right on target for what the NHC was saying. Also, all models show it between NO and Ft Walton. Do we have some thrill seekers on here tonight. It's like you guys are looking for any excuse you can for it to come back to central FL. If it is are slight bit right, you guys are calling it a full north shift. It is obviously moving NW. At the very most NNW.

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BabyCat
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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26836 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:36 PM

That recon on NWS site is 3 hours old...
thought they were going in more often or did I look in the wrong place?


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ShaggyDude
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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: BabyCat]
      #26837 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:36 PM

New Discussion/Advisory Out

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST, AGAIN

Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:38 PM)


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26838 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:37 PM

the sad part is someone will be right.

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26839 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:37 PM

jth,
it's not that they're wishing it to cent fla. For me, I'vee seen enough storms turn and move in ways that were not expected to know that it "could" happen.
Usually these storms curve East and not West.

At least no one is saying Texas......


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26840 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:38 PM

Its Called Post Charley distress syndrome. There is not a model invented that we in the Tampa Bay area trust.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26841 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:39 PM

LOL you can always tell when there is someone whos a vet on here who trys to challenge someone on what they think and then calls them wishcasting but they are just UPSET if we tell them it MIGHT not come their way. Sorry Unknown I guess you think its going or hoping to you and it might. Right now I have it forcasted to LA-Mobile near Biloxi. I just giving a insight on maybe if this all comes together then Cedar Key and the Big Bend area might come into play. But Tampa? Highly doubt it but if Big Bend area does happen , Tampa will get TS winds on Weds. Right now staying with my 3 day landfall. Also if anyone does think it might go 1 way or another, instead of guessing a spot, I would like to see reasons behind their thinking, you dont have to be a met todo that. There are always options open.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Here's the Beef [Re: BabyCat]
      #26842 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:39 PM

From the 11pm discussion
THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA


Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 13 2004 10:40 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26843 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:39 PM

Hey jth,

Thomas and myself have been saying Tampa, Big Bend, extreme eastern panhandle for days now. Just check the old posts. No thrill casting by us, been saying it for days.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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rule
Weather Guru


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Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: jth off]
      #26844 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:40 PM

Having just experienced the Joy of Frances, I really don't want to do that again soon.

If Ivan has any chance of heading my way, I want to take prudent measures at the earliest possible time. Sorry if you feel like that's an "excuse" for being concerned.


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Rule & Jason [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26845 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:40 PM

Damn...

Unless I'm reading this wrong, that's a CAT IV in Mobile bay...

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

Rick, MBfly and all with friends/family/interests there...be safe!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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TWC [Re: jth off]
      #26846 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:40 PM

It seems to me that TWC is changing it's forecast? I may be wrong, but last time I saw (the older guy met... what's his name again) talk, he was saying West coast of Florida and ignoring points west. This time, he used his hand to show the potential track and it was much closer to Louisiana..... Did anyone see what I saw and maybe paid more attention?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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