Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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when watching the loops, and they do the "chow,chow chow" thing. Look at the time stamps, you can click on the little green boxes at the top to skip them, that go back in time. That makes it easier to watch
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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looks like a fig 8.
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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rare the word , i do not agree with common forecast , cold front from north west will put land fall near tampa as i see it , hope i'm wrong and dies , but i don't think so. Folkes don't realize if hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?
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HMY
Unregistered
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I had heard from some news that would be a storm to be studied for a long time, , too. It amazes me about the island dodging. Almost like he is waiting for the right "prey".
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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or a bully
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ivan is the bully
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
Folkes don't realize if hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?
I did not think there was one in Tampa anymore. I know it is not in Busch Gardens.
Back OT. I see nothing to cause a wild swing. I do get the feeling that shear might beat the heck out of . Would not be surprised to see him as low as a low cat 2 at landfall.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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200 mile errors out 5 days is actually very good. 20 years ago, errors were actually larger than that in only 3 days. I think if I did a plot of 48 hour projections, they haven't been that far off. The other day I looked at where they expected it when near Cuba, and they had it just inland. I think it passed about 50 miles west of that point today. Time-wise, I wasn't checking, I was just looking at location.
I made a reference in an earlier post that they used to put at the end of their 3 day forecasts back then "errors may exceed several hundred miles". I guess it is all relative, and perception.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Too strange how has side stepped land on his journey.
But unfortunately, has come close enough to spread death and destruction. You don't need a direct hit by the eye to be devistated by a storm.
In Daytona Beach, Fla, they were 150 miles from where the eye crossed the onto land and still experience a lot of torn off roofs and some beyond repair.
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html refresh it
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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More than likely going through another (eyewall replacement cycle) has been doing that fairly regularly. These big storms don't stay constant, they flucuate in intesity, and the eye does some strange things sometimes.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I never notice the with supertyphoons, they just seem to get stronger and stronger, though we will never know 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Not just in Daytona Beach............
My cousin's roof actually got lifted off and put back down at a wierd angle, my uncle's house had a tree fall on it, his cabinet store in the mall was ruined when the roof of dillards collapsed (letting in a torrential down pour then setting off the fire sprinklers), my mom had a 20yr old palm take out her fence and there is a hole the size of a basketball in her roof.
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Kelly
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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anyone notice the pressure increased a tad?
Maybe it is a replacment cycle...
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I'm sure I read somewhere that Cat 5 storms generally lose their Cat 5 status and don't maintain it for days on end. Is really that unique in this or have the s been rapid enough to keep the inensity high?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Well, has now entered the Gulf of Mexico.
I can't say that he's a welcomed guest.
Where will you go ?
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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look the forecaster get live info that tax payers paid for but they pay a small amount to get it first , not right way to go , cost lives and money, but easy to call the game after you know the end score.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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keith234...
glad mike was able to change your handle.
I'm pretty certain 's take place in ALL strong cyclones. We probably don't have access (or there isn't the technology) to give us great WV loops and the like where we can see it happen. There's no reason a super-t in the pac would behave any differently from a Major-c in the atl...
Please correct me if I'm wrong...
Also...I sure hope those calling for a CAT II at landfall are right, but I don't see ANYTHING out there to stop at least a strong III/weak IV...depending on the conditions, why not a V?
I sure hope not, but I don't think cares about whatever shear may be there...he's doing what he pleases and that's that.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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the more I think about it, I think they messed up when they decided what names to call the storms. should be a woman. He's b*&$hier than I am.
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Kelly
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spook
Unregistered
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Looks more wnw in the last few frames?
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