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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


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Re: Ivan the bear [Re: tikibar]
      #26702 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:00 PM

when watching the loops, and they do the "chow,chow chow" thing. Look at the time stamps, you can click on the little green boxes at the top to skip them, that go back in time. That makes it easier to watch

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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52255225
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26703 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:00 PM

looks like a fig 8.

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captgene
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #26704 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:01 PM

rare the word , i do not agree with common forecast , cold front from north west will put land fall near tampa as i see it , hope i'm wrong and Ivan dies , but i don't think so. Folkes don't realize if Ivan hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?

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HMY
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: 52255225]
      #26705 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:03 PM

I had heard from some news that Frances would be a storm to be studied for a long time, Ivan, too. It amazes me about the island dodging. Almost like he is waiting for the right "prey".

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BabyCat
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: HMY]
      #26706 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:04 PM

or a bully

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LI Phil
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: BabyCat]
      #26707 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:05 PM

Ivan is the bully

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!! [Re: captgene]
      #26708 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:06 PM

Quote:

Folkes don't realize if Ivan hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?




I did not think there was one in Tampa anymore. I know it is not in Busch Gardens.


Back OT. I see nothing to cause a wild swing. I do get the feeling that shear might beat the heck out of Ivan. Would not be surprised to see him as low as a low cat 2 at landfall.


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MrSpock
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Re: NHC 5 Day Forecast Error [Re: recmod]
      #26709 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:07 PM

200 mile errors out 5 days is actually very good. 20 years ago, errors were actually larger than that in only 3 days. I think if I did a plot of 48 hour projections, they haven't been that far off. The other day I looked at where they expected it when near Cuba, and they had it just inland. I think it passed about 50 miles west of that point today. Time-wise, I wasn't checking, I was just looking at location.
I made a reference in an earlier post that they used to put at the end of their 3 day forecasts back then "errors may exceed several hundred miles". I guess it is all relative, and perception.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: HMY]
      #26710 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:08 PM

Too strange how Ivan has side stepped land on his journey.
But unfortunately, Ivan has come close enough to spread death and destruction. You don't need a direct hit by the eye to be devistated by a storm.
In Daytona Beach, Fla, they were 150 miles from where the eye crossed the onto land and still experience a lot of torn off roofs and some beyond repair.


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captgene
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards [Re: recmod]
      #26712 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:11 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html refresh it

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BillD
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Re: Odd Eye(s)? [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #26713 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:12 PM

More than likely going through another ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) Ivan has been doing that fairly regularly. These big storms don't stay constant, they flucuate in intesity, and the eye does some strange things sometimes.

Bill

Edited by BillD (Mon Sep 13 2004 08:14 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: Odd Eye(s)? [Re: BillD]
      #26714 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:14 PM

I never notice the ERC with supertyphoons, they just seem to get stronger and stronger, though we will never know

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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kelcot
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26715 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:15 PM

Not just in Daytona Beach............
My cousin's roof actually got lifted off and put back down at a wierd angle, my uncle's house had a tree fall on it, his cabinet store in the mall was ruined when the roof of dillards collapsed (letting in a torrential down pour then setting off the fire sprinklers), my mom had a 20yr old palm take out her fence and there is a hole the size of a basketball in her roof.

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Kelly


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BabyCat
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Re: Odd Eye(s)? [Re: BillD]
      #26716 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:16 PM

anyone notice the pressure increased a tad?
Maybe it is a replacment cycle...


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tpratch
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Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: BillD]
      #26717 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:18 PM

I'm sure I read somewhere that Cat 5 storms generally lose their Cat 5 status and don't maintain it for days on end. Is Ivan really that unique in this or have the ERCs been rapid enough to keep the inensity high?

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: kelcot]
      #26719 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:19 PM

Well, Ivan has now entered the Gulf of Mexico.
I can't say that he's a welcomed guest.

Where will you go Ivan?


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captgene
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)? [Re: HMY]
      #26720 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:22 PM

look the forecaster get live info that tax payers paid for but they pay a small amount to get it first , not right way to go , cost lives and money, but easy to call the game after you know the end score.

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LI Phil
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: tpratch]
      #26721 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:22 PM

keith234...

glad mike was able to change your handle.

I'm pretty certain ERC's take place in ALL strong cyclones. We probably don't have access (or there isn't the technology) to give us great WV loops and the like where we can see it happen. There's no reason a super-t in the pac would behave any differently from a Major-c in the atl...

Please correct me if I'm wrong...

Also...I sure hope those calling for a CAT II at landfall are right, but I don't see ANYTHING out there to stop at least a strong III/weak IV...depending on the conditions, why not a V?

I sure hope not, but I don't think Ivan cares about whatever shear may be there...he's doing what he pleases and that's that.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: LI Phil]
      #26722 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:25 PM

the more I think about it, I think they messed up when they decided what names to call the storms. Ivan should be a woman. He's b*&$hier than I am.

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Kelly


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Sustaining Cat 5? [Re: kelcot]
      #26723 - Mon Sep 13 2004 08:26 PM

Looks more wnw in the last few frames?

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