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MikeCAdministrator
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Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms
      #27031 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:08 AM

2PM EDT Update
Hurricane Ivan is holding as a Category 4 storm, and the eye is roughly 40 miles wide now. Intensity is expected to fluctuate and go down a little bit more, the track remains the same.

Jeanne has strengthened a bit this morning, recon has found winds around 50MPH as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It has the chance to strengthen a bit more as time goes on. Good luck to those in Puerto Rico like CyclonEye (s2k) and others.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan has gone through weakening this morning, with pressures rising and windspeed falling. Ivan's windspeed at 11AM (EDT) was 140MPH, but according to the National Hurricane Center it actually may be slightly less as they were still waiting on a few more recon reports at the time of the advisory.

Errors may be large in this track, folks in the Hurricane Watch area must prepare.



The track remains very similar to the last one this morning so there are no changes there--maybe a little more west. It projects Landfall near the Alabama, Nississippi border, and it looks fairly solid. (Athough all the areas in the Hurricane watch need to prepare, storms are fickle)


(Track Map Thanks to Skeetobite)
Ivan is forecast to weaken some more, but before it arrives it land it will go over a warm eddy in the Gulf and have a chance to restrengthen a bit. Ivan will likely still be a major Hurricane when it makes landfall.

Jeanne is a minimal Tropical Storm over the leeward islands in the Caribbean, Tropical storm warnings are up for other islands in the area. a windy, rainy event for them. After that, models trend it northwest but East of the Bahamas. Not sure on it yet. Time to watch later.

More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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MO stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #27039 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:17 AM

Is it me or is Ivans track moving further west with every update? Will the NHC eventually put landfall on New Orleans?
I will admit I do not know much about 'canes. Twisters are more of my thing.


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #27040 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 AM

Morning all...thanks for the new thread Mike.

Mike's update says it all, so just a couple of quick thoughts. If the NHC track verifies...it's not going to be good news for Mobile...JB's been opining that a strong CAT III or IV (possible) making a strike just west of the Bay would have a similar effect to the 1938 storm that pushed 20' of water into downtown Providence...yeesh. Rick...MBFly...and anyone else in that area better get the hell out of there now! Be interesting to see if the USS Alabama is still there Thursday afternoon.

Another troubling aspect of this storm is the potential for inland flooding. Latest NHC 5 day shows VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT for days 4 & 5, essentially stalling out over the Tennessee Valley. Inland folks will be getting pummeled with heavy, drenching rains...maybe even ala Camille. This one is going into the record books for sure, and has the potential to affect millions upon millions of people.

JB also has opined that NO is by no means out of the woods, so the folks there had also better be sure to keep their eyes on this one...

Despite everyone's best efforts, there's still no way to nail down a landfall or an intensity...the endgame will be interesting for sure.

Everybody on the GOM you be safe and LEAVE EARLY if you're within the cone!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: LI Phil]
      #27041 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 AM

Just a question that has been nagging me for years. What happens if we have more storms that names assigned for the year? Has this ever happened and where do they get names after the alphabet is gone?

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: VandyBrad]
      #27044 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:37 AM

I just realized you could superimpose forecast points showing future track and category...pretty neat feature.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: LI Phil]
      #27047 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 AM

i'm finally off to work after missing almost 2 weeks. Still got a mess in my yard but I know it could have been much worse. Mike, Phil, Mr Spock, Jason, Clarke, and everyone else I didn't mention who contributes so much to this site...Just wanted to say THANKS!!! Now my bro up in the panhandle is hooked on reading it after I was there. Heres praying that TS Jeanne stays out in the Atlantic, hurts no one, and produces awesome surf. Thats what these storms are supposed to do...right?I'm praying for the entire region that might get affected by Ivan. Gotta go shape some surfboards now....finally!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Post From Colleen from the previous thread [Re: richisurfs]
      #27048 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM

Normally I don't do this, but Colleen put considerable time and energy into this post...

If anyone looked at the picture they just showed on the Weather Channel, it certainly looked to be going NORTH at THAT PRECISE MOMENT IN TIME.
People are allowed to say what they see, and I don't think that meto was "wishcasting" anything.
As far as the storm not turning, at this point, I think that the NHC is becoming more confident in it's track and I do not think that Ivan will make a hard right and turn into Tampa Bay. That being said, today is Tuesday, landfall is supposed to occur around Thursday. That's 2 days away. I believe with Frances 2 days out they were forecasting it to possibly move up the coast of the Carolinas, and even some people here were agreeing with that forecast. The bottom line is this: Frances turned, Charley turned. When did they turn? Charley turned about 4 hours before he was supposed to hit Tampa. Frances turned and kept everyone on their toes for about 12 hours. I don't think it was until she almost made landfall that they were able to nail the precise place. Two days out, a little shove to the north, maybe a little bit of of turn to the east and the forecast changes again for a whole lot of people. I'm not say this is going to happen, I'm saying it's POSSIBLE. Hopefully, the models have a good handle on this thing right now and we're only 2 days away so I don't see a huge track shift coming in the future.
Tarpon---this is kind of ironic, but you posted about Dennis Phillips and how irresponsible his comments were last night. I watched him and he said "IF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES, AND IT COULD BE JUST A JOG, THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT". He was correct about the models not getting the new info because it had just started that trend. At 5:15pm, only two of the models had the new info and they DID swing it to the right. However, if you listened to him during the following hours, he corrected himself many times, as he was doing updates every 1/2 hour. I was watching the game and I saw him. At 12:something, he said it WAS JUST A JOG. I don't think he was being irresponsible. The reason I say it is ironic is because when I was on him about Frances, you were defending him as being one of the best out there. Go figure. Just like us, he saw the northward movement, too. Then it moved again to the NW.

I think all Floridians are a little uncomfortable and testy right now. We've been on STORM ALERT mode for over a month. Nerves are frayed, tempers are flaring and these things bring out the best and worst of us. We need to try and remember that when posting to one another. We're all in the same boat. I know I said a lot of prayers last night asking that this storm comes in well below a Cat 5 because after seeing two come directly over me, a Cat 1 isn't any fun either.

--------------------
Colleen A.

GO LIGHTNING!!!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: LI Phil]
      #27049 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 AM

Phil, you must be tired. I've been trying to tell you that for 3 days, ROFLOL!
Of course, as luck would have it, I just wrote a longgggg post and now we have a new thread. I'll back and copy and paste it here. Colleen ---------> smacks self upside head.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
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Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread [Re: LI Phil]
      #27050 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 AM

Thanks, Phil. You just saved me a double post. You rock!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: richisurfs]
      #27051 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM

Thank you for the kind words. I just wish this weren't going to have such a bad impact on so many.
That's a wishcast I think we all would like to make.

Edited for bad sentence structure! LOL


Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM)


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: LI Phil]
      #27053 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM

That flooding is going to be the problem for me because I live in the western part of NC. With Frances we got some rain, but this looks like a stall and the ground is already wet. Some of the models have had the slow movement or stall for the last couple of days. I do hope that is off also!!!!

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
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Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27054 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM

Colleen...just wanted to say that I left your name off my little list of who I was thanking. Your contirbutions are awesome and I should have included you. I feel you're alot like me. we are lay persons and we don't always contribute on a technical level but still have a good grasp of whats going on. By the way...I think you know alot more than me. Anyhow, just wanted to put that out there.

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Tampa Joe
Unregistered




Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27057 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM

(Off topic post removed by moderator).

Looks like it's time for lockdown, Mike.

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 PM)


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tpratch
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: LI Phil]
      #27058 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 PM

Quote:

Be interesting to see if the USS Alabama is still there Thursday afternoon.




Sorry, but my money's on the Alabama.

At least one of the South Dakota/Iowa class battleships survived through a typhoon that sank several destroyers. Granted, the Alabama is moored, sunk 20 feet into the sea bed and therefore not quite as likely to be pointing in the best direction, but it's ~35,000 tons unladen. Add a few million gallons of water to her and she'll sit and laugh (although the rigging and superstructure might be in jeopardy).

So Jeanne is finally named - she going to scare the fishes, or should Florida really be worried?

Thoughts?

Edited by tpratch (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
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Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook [Re: richisurfs]
      #27059 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 PM

This is from 5:27am this morning:

Quote:

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141900-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
527 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

HURRICANE Ivan WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ITS OUTER FRINGES WILL INFLUENCE THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS LATEST TRACK IS PPROXIMATELY 350 MILES WEST OF THE AREAS COAST LINE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH Ivan WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS MAY PRODUCE ROTATION IN SOME STRONGER CELLS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. WITH A LARGE SLOW MOVING HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AREA TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. Ivan IS ALSO GENERATING LARGE SWELLS OF OVER 12 FEET THAT
WILL BRING HIGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO AREA BEACHES CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.




As you can see, the Tampa Bay area does not have to be in the cone to get bad weather. I remember when George was off of our coast by 100 miles, Lakeland saw more tornadoes and rain than I've seen with Charley OR Frances.

Make sure you pay attention not to just where the hurricane will make landfall, but points to the NE of it, as that is where the worst weather is right now. Most of us have seen torrential rains for the last month, and flooding is a huge concern for the little creeks and rivers all around us. As I type this, it's beginning to rain. It also feels like someone just threw a wet blanket over my head it's so tropical. A nice breeze coming in, too.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: tpratch]
      #27060 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:09 PM

On TWC last night, Dr. Lyons mentioned gravity waves coming from the storm? Can anyone explain??

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms [Re: richisurfs]
      #27061 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 PM

i dont wishcast storms, we are allowed to state our views here. i went thru major hurricanes in miami area in 60's. some people need to calm down. and talk about the hurricanes and not others. thanx

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Gravity Waves [Re: Cane Watcher]
      #27063 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:13 PM

gravity waves

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ROB IN PA
Unregistered




Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread [Re: Tampa Joe]
      #27064 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 PM

So your itching to get some action tampa joe. Let me tell you that you want no action. I was 8 in 1964 when cleo blew thru miami and road 2 canes out at sea while in navy in pacific and you no part of this storm. I have been watching this site for weeks and its people like Colleen that make it work. She might not be a met but she knows her stuff and doesnt need people like you making comments like that. This site is about hurricanes please keep it that way.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4433
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread [Re: ROB IN PA]
      #27065 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 PM


2nd time I've had to do that this week. (Re tampajoe)

Feel free to Disagree with folks, but please don't post personal attacks on anyone. We removed it once and he posted another message.


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