MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
7:00PM
Pressure down to 931 MB, windspeed being held at 135, but may respond to the pressure drop soon. 105miles south of mobile bay.
Near downtown Mobile along the bay storm surge may be as high as 16 feet.
6:30PM
Ongoing monitoring continues...
4:54PM
Tornado reported on the ground in Panama City, captured by video from wjhg's tower cam. (Yes Jason Kelly's station)
2 people reported killed by tornado..
5PM advisory out for , pressure to 933, winds remain same but probably will ramp up to follow the pressure drop. It has responded to the warm eddy it was over, winds may go up but it seems likely as a cat 4 landfall now.
Wave hights of 42-50 ft (Fourty-Two to Fifty feet) were recorded
at a buoy 75 miles south of Dauphin Island.
Good Luck All!
4:42PM
Hurricane Watches up for the southeastern Bahama islands for Jeanne.
4:30PM
Recon reports a pressure of 933mb, it has gotten stronger since 2pm.
Huge Version of this Pic
Looks to be stronger...
Original Update
Jeanne has made landfall in Puerto Rico as a strong Tropical Storm.
Meanwhile...
Hurricane is maintaining itself strength wise as it moves closer to the Gulf coast. We are watching the track extremely close.
Movement of appears to be almost due north right now... Aircraft recon reports pressure down 2mb to 937 from the 2pm advisory.
More to Come...
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Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
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Weather Underground Model Plots for
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
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Even more on the links page.
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I am afraid we may see a VERY strong Cat IV or possibly a V at land fall. is really intensifying.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I don't think it will be a cat 5 (less than 10% chance), conditions aren't good enough for it. It will hold around what it is now. Recon reports are key to figuring out what it's really doing in there.
Pressure has dropped down to 937 according to the latest vortex message.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Also, Jeanne had a remarkably well-defined eye on the radar in the hours leading to landfall, especially for a tropical storm. It's clustered now, but I have a feeling this thing will really strengthen as long as keeps his distance.
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[witty phrase here]
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
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Speaking of Recon, when should we expect another report. I agree that it will not make cat 5, but it does look to be strengthening.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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watching radar loops, he looks almost due north right now, I can't see much westernly component in the last 30 minutes....
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 74
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
steering looks like its gone. 
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B33R
Unregistered
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Frank, i would recommend you clear out of there right away!!
Why chance it?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Frank,
Radar's weird like that. Look at the big picture. I know you have this loop linked, but you can see the general trend. Smoothing the track, it's about 350. Looks like a star thingy in the eye at the last frame:
SSD Visible
Bust open that Crown baby.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This sat loop only goes until 1745z, but I don't see ANY northerly movement...
Frank..GO!
Edit...looks like Steve beat me to it, and his loop goes to 1815...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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my primary concern is storm surge, and winds out of the south.... as long as I'm assured it will be to the west of me I'm not going to get the worst of it... hopefully...
thanks
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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You would be in the worst possible spot Frank. Do you mean East?
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BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I know the view on radar is skewed this far out, but isn't this about where the track starts the NNE turn? It could be just a wobble, but in the last few radar frames it does seem to be leaning to the right. But it might be a couple more hours before we can see a real trend.
Bill
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Just had a tornado watch issued; looks like some very strong rainbands will be here shortly. Winds are now gusting to a good 30mph or so. Just now beginning to rain at my house. ALL Shelters in Mobile are now CLOSED officially per local TV reports. I'm not sure about electricity, but well before Frederic came on shore in '79 they turned the power off.
Right now my prayer, besides survival, is that does not get any stronger !!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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FlaReb, I sit corrected... you are exactly right EAST IS THE KEY for me...
Bil, I hope you are seening the same thing I'm seeing on radar, it more updated than the sat pixs by a good 20-30 minutes... I think this is kinda cutting in close on my part but I still have options available.. appreciate everyones concern greatly... would feel bad if I abandoned my neighbors...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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don't know if this will be of any help regarding the surge...worth a look-see.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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MB that is a tornado warning...must be one in those very Red cells coming ashore in your county.
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docjoe
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
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Sitting here in Santa Rosa county between milton and pace. moderate rain and gusts maybe up to 30 MPH. nothing big yet but obviously will change soon. channel 3 just reported that the navarre pier is collapsing. good luck to everyone and stay safe!!!
docjoe 
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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noticed that while I was typing the last post. looks to be just off shore south of gulf shores or so, headed nw toward foley.
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BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Recon is still out there, looks like they are in the SE quadrant now. The last vortex message was about an hour ago, might be a while before they send another one. .
Bill
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