jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
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They like the name so much I thought they may keep it around. And keep using it on every other storm. 
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cmdebbie
Unregistered
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I can definitely relate to that! I have always needed an alarm clock to wake up at 7 AM until Hurricane . Now I am up at 5 AM every morning without the clock and don't go to sleep until well after the 11 PM update. Gotta read this board until atleast midnight every evening.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Count me in on the up late up early checking on the storm disease.
My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
I'm in FLorida ... DAH......??
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
RED FLAG!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Must be the season of the witch...(bonus points)
Which witch? Hmmm, OZ...no, that was a tornado, Windy...no, that's Wendy, the teenaged.... Sea Witch...nope that's a boat, too early for Halloween.... Ok, I give up!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WELL I think so. But the shear is above 40,000ft, and most of the storm is below 40,000ft.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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You know you've been tracking storms too much when you see "OZ" and can only think of model runs.
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[witty phrase here]
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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11PM Out... Track shifted a little to left.. Waiting for discussion.. Still offshore..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html
Now we can await the most excellent Skeeter's dreaded Cone/Circle of destruction
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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He is starting to look like he might be getting a tad angry. Starting to really fire up close to the center. I hope this isn't a trend.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Also looks like they will keep Lisa, only as a result of the wave behind it overtaking the storm and merging. Guess they really aren't trying to go hogwild with the names after all...
(This is all per the 10:30p Trop. Wx. Outlook. You all will have to pardon Avila if the discussions are a bit lacking...looks like he's got duty on at least , Jeanne, and Karl, in addition to the ...)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
11PM Out... Track shifted a little to left.. Waiting for discussion.. Still offshore..
Yes, about 40 miles West South West....not the correct trend we were hoping for, I'm sure. They say "the trend is your friend' I say Rubbish...that trend is definitely NOT my, or any Floridian's friend....Still time....gotta believe...still time....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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They are being very conservative on the slight track to the west,,they will wait to see the OZ model runs to make a more w track into florida. Thats how i see it and they will come into agreement with my thinking of this. at 3pm wasnt a depression but it continued to get better organized and they waited for recon,, thats why it wasnt upgraded at 5pm. Should be a weak tropical storm as most of us predicted nearing Texas coast in 36 hours,.,,,,still not 100% sure it will come inland or jog to the south. Ill post more on Jeanne later tonight and on Thursday on my landfall area.
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hi folks...don't post much, but please read.
I just have a little comment on all of the wishcasting that goes on here, and all of the wishcasting-bashing, for that matter. What amuses me the most is that people get upset with others who may be hoping that a tropical system heads their way. Let's face it. We all love storms, and we all love weather. Otherwise, why would we be checking these sites religiously? I for one will fully admit that I love to be out at the beach and see the surf and feel the wind from an oncoming tropical system. It is exciting! Plus, the thought of no work for a few days and a bathtub full of beer sounds fun, too. That said, I think we all agree that none of us want to see anyone homeless, anyone injured, anyone suffering, or anyone dead. The tragedy that was in the south and Jeanne in Haiti is not a matter to be taken lightly. However, I do think we need a bit of a reality check, and an admission that we all love the storms, and hope to feel the (minimal) effects of mother nature in all her glory. So lets embrace the wishcasters and everyone else, pay attention to all of the wonderful information from the mets and enthusiasts on this site, and keep a sense of humor along the way.
/rant off
As for Jeanne, though I haven't seen the 11:00, I agree that the ridge in the east has been undercast all season. Recall that was predicted to go right up through the state of Florida, and it hit well west of here. So I do think she will come further west than the has been predicting. However, I don't think she is a Florida storm, yet. She has shown too much tendency to want to head north since she got off of the Dominican. I say landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach as a Cat I hurricane.
More later when I check all my sat loops, models, and other posts. Cheers Steve!
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South Florida
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I certainly can't blame them for being conservative. No real reason to push it right now. I agree with them waiting to see what happens with the next runs. As soon as that path starts to cross the Florida coastline, I am afraid all hell will start to break loose with people going into panic mode.
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Jim
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davet
Unregistered
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Mike, Phil, Frank, Rabbit, etc etc
All you knuckleheads have a great way of easing the PAIN. Thanks for your insight AND easy humor...... Many of us need that right now. KNUCKLEHEADS is really a term of endearment,
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This won't engender too many responses...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at this from the 11pm Discussion on Jeanne:
Most of the global models...as well as
the consensus and the superensemble are now bringing Jeanne
near or over the Florida East Coast in about 3 days. Even the
GFS...which previoulsy turned Jeanne northward before reaching
Florida...is now bringing the hurricane over the peninsula. I was
tempted to shift the official forecast farther westward...but
because it is important to keep continuity...only a little westward
shift is indicated at this time.
Looking ominous for Florida... 
--Lou
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Quote:
Most of the global models...as well as the consensus and the superensemble are now bringing Jeanne near or over the Florida East Coast in about 3 days. Even the ...which previoulsy turned Jeanne northward before reaching Florida...is now bringing the hurricane over the peninsula. I was tempted to shift the official forecast farther westward...but because it is important to keep continuity...only a little westward shift is indicated at this time.
Here's hoping they don't have to eat their words on this one :-/
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[witty phrase here]
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Phil, can you post a site link for me on the models...one that is updated earlier than the Penn State site? Thanks.
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South Florida
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