MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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4:40pm Update
5PM Advisories are coming in and the forecast track has shifted a little westward. More to come soon.
3:30pm Update
The Northwestern Bahamas are now under a hurricane watch.
Original Update:
Hurricane Jeanne and Tropical Storm are the areas of most concern right now.
With Jeanne there is both good and bad news. The bad news is that the steering currents are still weak, and the forecast still makes Florida a target... and we should definitely watch it here in Florida. The slow movement, however, puts a lot of question marks on where exactly it may go.
I know many will be watching its wobbles wondering if it is a trend or not, persistance is the key doing that. Don't read too much into it until a definite movement overal a few hours has occured.
(Thanks Skeetobite)
The National Hurricane Center has moved the forecast track a bit left again and I don't see any reason to doubt it other than the general slow movement of the storm. Since it is moving so slowly things can change, so we all must watch it.
The current timeline is on Sunday if the track verifies.
The good news is that Jeanne probably won't be more than a category 2 storm at landfall, which is enough to cause problems similar to . However, with all the uncertainty with the slow movement it would be prudent to heed warning and advisories that may come up. Prepare a bit and plan actions if Hurricane Watches or Warnings are set up on advice of local agencies.
Ivan has strengthened this morning to a 60MPH Tropical storm, but winds won't be Part ]['s claim to fame this time. More on later. Steering currents are weak for as well, so we may still not be done with even after it landfalls on the TX/LA coastline.
Lisa and Karl still are Fish Spinners, but the system behind Lisa will need to be watched later on.
More to come.
Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
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LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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lois
Unregistered
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waiting to see
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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This could be worse than if it stays just off the coast and batters the beaches all the way up through Fl,Ga,SC and NC.
I think the attitude with most Floridians is simply one of
resigned readiness.
I have a feeling Jeanne may turn before the coast but it's just my gut feeling.
So far this season, the halo of protection that seemed to be over the peninsula of Florida for so many years has seemed to evaporate.
Hope for the Best.
I'll be away from the computer for awhile...my best to everyone on the board. See you on the other side of Jeanne
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just emailed a friend of mine who does work at Mayport Naval Station. They'll know more than we do (and faster) and if he emails me back saying that they're moving ships out to sea, I think that might give you an idea. If they DON'T move the ships out to sea......it might make you sick to your stomach. 
Might not hear back from him immediately, but when I do, I'll let you know.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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lt sure looks to me after watching both the IR and WV loops over the last couple of hours that the eye is heading NW, not west... is it eye wobble from this ..? Perhaps but I don't think so.
Will the approaching wave push it back south onto the latest track?... who knows. But it does seem to already be a little more north of the predicted path...
AdmittedHacker
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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True. The surf has been huge the last few days, with the storm mostly north and east of us the Bahamas weren't there to block the swells. It's only going to get worse the closer this thing gets, and frankly we aren't going to have much beach left no matter when it curves north.
There's still debris all over the place in Palm Beach, as numb as I've become to hurricanes this season I still have a pretty sick feeling about Jeanne.
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[witty phrase here]
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Tally
Unregistered
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Has anyone seen the Super Ensemble track for Jeanne today?
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The insanity continues...get this...JB has thrown the idea out that , after he landfalls a second time, will be forced back out into the GOM, possibly near the AL/FL border, where he originally went in...THEN could redevelop again in the GOM... Since he nailed the return of before, I would give credence to this possibility...good lord.
There is no good news for FL east coast residents, unfortunately. My crow munching forecast will be given this afternoon...but I will throw out the possibility that Jeanne will become a MAJOR cane and landfall as such...in Florida.
I urge, make that STRONGLY urge, all you guys (and you know who you are) to bring your preps to fruition now! Get the shutters BACK up, supplies handy, cash on hand, and the car gassed up. By now you know the drill so I don't have to remind you.
Anxiously awaiting Skeeter's next map...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Isn't it the other way around? Sea ports are generally emptied out ahead of the storm, the damage a freighter (or destroyer) could cause being washed onshore would be absurd. I'm failry sure Mayport isn't sheltered enough, and protocol is to put out to sea if they expect a hit.
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[witty phrase here]
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cmdebbie
Unregistered
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Quote:
As for firsts, here's another one. I have a better chance of determining the outcome of Scott Peterson's trial than I do of determining where Jeanne will make landfall. 
So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Quote:
As for firsts, here's another one. I have a better chance of determining the outcome of Scott Peterson's trial than I do of determining where Jeanne will make landfall.
So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?
I'll take a stab at this...he's to die for!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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At the end of the last thread, Ed in VA posted that climatology shows that in September, cat 1 and 2 storms never hit FL from this position. True, but what if she is a cat 3 ?
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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its 11:40 am here in st cloud (45 some miles from melbourne) waiting for the 12 o'clock news to find some info out. very very calm weather here today. I just finished putting my boards back up and checking the rest of my supplies. I am set the kids are set and my house is set. All i can say is head the warnings that you are given cause you never know what can happen. Yes i am scared but what can i do? Prepare prepare prepare. No notices of Emergency management places opening as of yet but i predict they will this evening into the morning. Thank god the City of St cloud came and removed all the dead branches garbage and etc fromt he past storms. drainage ditches are finally clear and well hopefully we wont get 2 ft of rain on my street this time. It was a terrible thing to walk downthe street in so much water. Thanks again for all your wonderful insights here. all of your ino has helped out n the past and i know will continue in the future. Keep it up guys!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Been struggling over Jeanne like most and I'm having a hard time determining where she might go... However, the season's trend for Florida have been on the left solution, and because of that, and the underselling of the Bermuda ridge all season by most of the models, I really think (at the moment) this WILL BE another FLORIDA event... space coast looks as good a spot as any right now... this has been a really tough one to call... but that's where I'm leaning at the moment, however, unlike , I think if anything it could be more north of the Space Coast as opposed to south like was... still to early.. need to see some data on the ridge and what's expected of it during the next 3-5 days..
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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havent you noticed??
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
high built in strong from nne of jeanne
new part of high building in on nnw side if u ask me
u judge
where does bastardi think it will hit i wonder
didnt know he was big in intensity forecasting
notice as colleen said.. no one is talking where as much as intensity suddenly
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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leo
Unregistered
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Hey,
We are on the Georgia coast between Savannah and Jax. Do any of you think Jeanne will have an impact on our area? We're in a sort of sort of tucked in area of the coastline and usually get missed by the hurricanes.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hey Phil,
I forgot to tell you a while back, was also mentioned in an article in Newsweek, I believe the second one after . I will look it up and let you know the issue.
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Maybe I didn't phrase it right, here's what I meant to say:
If Mayport sends it ships out to sea, then yes, they would be expecting a hit. I believe (and with all the storms we've had, I could be wrong) that he said the ships were about to go out to sea when was approaching and at the last minute they cancelled it. That was because turned and hit the central East coast of Florida and was forecast to go across the state, not UP the state as previously believed. I don't think they ever did anything with because was never expected to be a east coast storm, so I'm pretty sure it was .
If they believe the same scenario that happened with will occur with Jeanne, then they more than likely would NOT move them out to sea, as she would pose no catastrophic threat to the ships. They made it through and I'm sure they've seen worse out at sea on a regular trip. Of course, they will have information sooner than we will, so I would *guess* that they are preparing the ships to go out and they have 4 days until it even hits Central/South Florida, so I don't know exactly how soon they would make the decision to go out to sea. It's a lot of manpower and a 24 hour job, so they don't just do it to do it.
So, what I mean when I said if they "don't" move the ships out to sea it will make you sick to your stomach was that they don't expect it to have a large effect on Mayport Naval Station.
Hope I cleared that up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Jeanne's long weekend get away (up close & personal):
Includes true scale wind fields (maritime)
Full size available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Are you saying he thinks it could make another landfall in the North central Gulf????
I posed this scenario on the previous thread, but did not see a response. Will go down on record with the most landfalls???
Edited by jth (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM)
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