Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Yes GOMe Puerto Rico is out on the clear from this but anyway some rain still may fall and some gusty winds also but the bulk of the bad weather will be south of PR.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
then again 10l could do a Gordon-
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif
which would be be a W carribean E Gulf storm and a SE US storm all in one trip.
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
Yeah Gordon would be something, but if that happend i think this one would be stronger then gordon.
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
the 12Z runs that are out still show a more northerly movement than a straight W for the to be a TD at 5pm storm.
I know the is a hype machine sometimes but its 12Z run looks scary for S florida. Especially those little pieces of Paradise way down South on US 1
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
this could be the one all these toy storms this year now time for the real deal the gulf has been stormy the last 4 weeks high off the east coast end of the week the gulf will get the big one were it hits only time will tell in 2 days when it gets in west caib it will take off they dont like to do much in the east caib
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
great job this past week guys thanks it has been fun
|
weather1
Unregistered
|
|
Does anyone know where I can find a graphical representation of the different forecast tracks associated with newly formed TD#10? Thank you for the help!
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
Is it me or does it look like that there could be two different systems out by the islands. If this is the case than maybe BOTH the east coast and the gulf will have systems to worry about.Comments?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Well I think we will have to see what evolves out of this system. The closed circulation is definitely hitting Venezuela now...the question is, will it get a northerly component to take it away from the SA coast?? Or, will that die and the wave develop one further north? Odds are that the one hitting Venezuela right now will come further NW with time and build as it moves into the central Carib, then tkae a track that is further west (eventually towards the Keys). But if it does not survive will it spawn a new low futher north. I'm way too impatient, so I better chill and watch. But this TD could have significant impacts down the road IF it stays together. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A
LARGE ENVELOPE...CURVED BANDS AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND IS MOVING TOO FAST. THEREAFTER...IF IT
SURVIVES THE EFFECTS OF LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND DECREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED. BOTH SHIPS AND
INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY...MIGHT AS WELL NOT MENTION
HOW STRONG...BUT THE UNBEATABLE GLOBAL MODEL ONLY SHOWS A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OR MORE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS. GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO BRANCHES. THE
STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN...AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA. THE IS IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CUBA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTING FEW DAYS AHEAD.
AT THIS TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SQUALLS
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.1N 61.5W 25 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 10.5N 64.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KTS
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 70.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 73.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 76.0W 60 KTS
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Models vary on future track of this system. brings this to CAT 3 into SW FL. AVN/NOGAPS/UKMET turn this NW then N. Although AVN brings it closer to FL than the other two. Haven't seen other models, but looks like an intresting week ahead!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Here we go again as a maybe storm for someone becomes everyones storm even though it might not make it past Venezuela. The models which in my opinion are wortheless and have been proven of no value more than 72 hours out are being touted and soon the tv weathermen will be talking about preperations for the week ahead. If I've learned anything over the last 5 years it is to ignore all predictions more than 3 days out and take anything less with a great deal of doubt. The only certainties are that were I live in Stuart we are well protected by troughs that will steer all storms away yet my homeowners insurance for hurricane protection will continue to skyrocket.
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
is that a trough that stays there year round??
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.hurricanealley.net/
http://www.net-waves.net/weather/tropics.php
Those are pretty good too. There's another one at Hurricane City, but I don't have it bookmarked.
L8R,
Steve
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
As expected, we have TD#10. What can I say? Well, nothing much. I'm trying not to speculate with this one and I'm just not going to. Here are my thoughts:
1. It is getting away from Venezuela, but barely. If the storm's convection is still strong and safely away from SA in the morning I'll be content to say TD10 will have passed it's first major test. It's 75% there right now.
2. Eastern Caribbean: I don't expect this storm to due a whole lot here. It might strengthen to a 35-45 knot storm in this area. The intensification should really speed up in the Central Caribbean.
3. Forward speed: I believe it's reasonable to think that as TD10 gains latitude it will slow down, giving oppurtunity for intensification. Still hauling butt for the next 24 hours though. Of course, this will just get it away from SA and get it out of the Eastern Caribbean quicker. A double-edged sword I suppose.
4. Track should become more west-northwest anytime in next 12-36 hours.
That's basically all I have to say at this point. I'm zipping my mouth beyond 72 hours. This situation may end up being like Debby. She seemed like a sure-fire threat, right? I guess that wasn't the case in the end. Of course, every storm has a different timeline. I'd suggest we take this one day by day. If a threat arises to Florida, will mention it. Anything before this is just speculation.
Kevin 
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
How about we send you some cheese to go along with all that whining you're doing... hehe
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
Thats bull Stuart , fl gets hit all the time
1871 Aug 25th a 105mph hurricane comes ashore just north while moving NW
1896 bd October cat one
1898 aug 2nd 80mph
1928 august a cat one
1928 1 month later a cat 3
1933 a hurricane from East sept 3rd winds over 125mph heavy damage 75% of roofs blown off population only 5,100 at the time 2 killed citrus loss nearly complete.
1933 in September a Cat 3 almost in the same area
1939 a cat one in august from the Southeast
1949a cat 4 just south on August 26th unofficial gust to 160mph many homes destroyed,52 million in damage here 2 killed,Jenson bch causeway completely wiped out.
1947 broward hit by a cat 4 but this area got heavy winds too by large hurricane
1950 oct 18th hurricane King hits 25 miles to the west with 80mph winds causing heavy bch erosion here
1964 aug 27th hurricane cleo passed as a cat 1 with 85mph winds to the west
1964 Hurricane Isabell hits from the SW with 115mph winds Oct 15 after hitting the west coast
1979 sept 3rd hurricane david hits with 85mph gusts here press 28.71 5 ft tides,minor damage
1999 oct 16th hurricane irene 75mph press 29.12 moving NNE @ 10mph dumps very heavy rain & many trees knocked down.
and thats just a handfull there are a lot more that are not mentiond
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
guys its a week away go take a brake we will need it i do think it will get to the gulf but this thing is a 1000 miles away we cant get one corect 100 miles away this year these things have been crazy see ya
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
I've really had enough of whoever is making these stupidity-filled posts. No, we won't take a brake. All of the people that come to post here post for a reason: interest and passion in hurricane tracking and predictions. I think we need to switch to a system where everyone must register to post. No B.S. then, you do dumb things and you're gone.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
new model runs show more west move new takes it threw y/p right into mid gulf as a cat 3 mobile look out here comes dad
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
