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#Sam heading NW still a Major and Bermuda should watch. Elsewhere, fish spinning persists from a very active Main Development Region.
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL
      #32326 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:04 PM

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

Note this was the exact same landfall coordinates of Hurricane Frances.

Note this is based on the NHC official track and assumes a northward jog. Variations may be large. The stronger side of the storm is the northern side.


Original Update
Jeanne's eyewall is on the coast tonight and moving inland near the Martin / St. Lucie County line. After landfall the northwestward turn is still projected to slowly occur as it crosses central Florida. We'll see when or if this materialized later.



Several extreme storm cells associated with the eyewall have already passed through the area of landfall and affected north Palm Beach county as well. Tomrorow will be very telling there. Much of the area is without power now.

Jeanne is making landfall as a category 3 storm, borderline, but category 3. The lateat recon and radar estimates support it, as well as some of the other gust reports and pressure readings.


Event Related Links

StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)

Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop

Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Jeanne Radar Image

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Georgia Tech
the 11pm Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #32337 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:13 PM

is lacking...
grrr.

what's up with the models versus reality
grrr

Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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LAgetaway
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32340 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:19 PM

just going through Ivan here in lower alabama i hope all fair well in flordia God Bless You all

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32341 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:19 PM

Looks like I'm re-employed...

Thanks to any and all who sent well wishes...but for now..

We got one nasty beatch a knockin' on heaven's door...

Richie-if you still have power...scratch that PM...gimme a shout...

I've had no dinner and no food since 2:00 pm, dog literally peed on the floor...

What do you guys need?

(I can't tell you what your winds will be in 20 hours on the panhandle) but I can give you shelter info, maps & Anything else and If I can't I'll die trying...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32342 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:20 PM

Hey all, fairly new poster here, but I gotta say this site is like an addiction once you find it- and it has been a great help. Ditto on the Phil issue- he's the man! As far as my prediction goes, here in Tampa, by USF, we are getting some decent small gusts, still have power, etc. I have been thinking it all day but afraid to say it- but I think Tampa is in for more than we bargained for this time. The westward track just seems to fast and straight to make that extreme turn- like a car making a quick right into the Mickey D's at 100mph (bad analogy I know). Either way, I feel that people here are NOT prepared for what might come- maybe they need to advertise this site on the news so people can get some real information and realize what exactly is happening, cuz so far I haven't hardly seen ANYTHING in the way of of people preparing like I did with the past three- no gas, food, battery, or plywood problems at all. Go figure. Please everyone stay safe and good luck!

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32343 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:22 PM

No shelters opened in the Big Bend....yet.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32344 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:23 PM

"It seems that the NHC is sticking to the bitter end with the northeast turn once it gets inland. But with the speed of Jeanne, wouldn't that make it harder to make that northerly turn and track it further into the GOM? The way this storm has been acting in the last 12 hours I have a gut feeling that Jeanne may become Ivanesque and track into the GOM and then head into Alabama and track near Atlanta ..."
---------------------------

If I'm not mistaken, latest NHC track does take Jeanne across Florida, very briefly into the Gulf near Cedar Key, with a turn to the north, then NE thru GA. Quick weakening after moving inland also! It can't weaken fast enough!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32345 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:24 PM

Another thing- where is the 11pm NHC Map? Are they still pondering it? Also, we just got a gust here that was probably close to 35mph...it is coming.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Posts: 132
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: RevUp]
      #32346 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM

I should have stated a sudden Northward to Northeast turn....But it seems that everyone is following the NHC forecast, although TWC seems to keep thinking that Jeanne will follow the far western track of the...Sorry, Phil......"cone of uncertianty"...

Also, CNN just reported that a car went off of a bridge into the Intercoastal waterway near Port St. Lucie, going to the barrier islands

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:37 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32347 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM

Check Mike's original post for maps...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32348 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:27 PM

Hey Phil, take a break. You got 15 minutes. LOL
The rest of us will answer, post and hold the Fort down.
We may not be as Good and Fast as You, but we can limp along til you get back.


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Humanriff
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Loc: Davenport, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32349 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:29 PM

Davenport, FL...dead calm, humid...scary.

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #32350 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:29 PM

Yeah, I gotta P!

Heres the discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Humanriff]
      #32352 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:33 PM

Lakeland...pressures dropping and I know that because my ears are popping and my head feels like I have a vise around it.

Time for another aspirin.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #32353 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:33 PM

in Tampa, pressure keeps falling at about .02 in per hour. Occasional gusts only up to 33 mph, but sustained winds are increasing to near 20 mph from NNE.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32355 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:35 PM

Its coming allright! I tend to agree with your first post regarding tampa being in for a surprise, we shall see..

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Let's Try This Again [Re: RevUp]
      #32356 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:36 PM

Ok Gang, I was in the middle of writing the following when the new thread popped up...so my original post ended up in the old thread. I have cut and past in its entirety because I really want everyone [especially Phil :-)] to read:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>original post>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I will make one final statement regarding my earlier post about the football thread.
I never intended or meant any insult toward Phil (or anyone else for that matter) when I commented about the football posts. I greatly value this forum and the members that frequent here. I take a lot of what Phil and the others say and use the information in my daily life to plan for these unprecedented events that we have dealt with here in Florida. I was simply referring to repeated posts that were quotes upon quotes upon quotes of silly repetition regarding NFL teams.
I remember when one of this season's earlier storms (Charley or Frances??) was about to make landfall, all the moderators, even Mike C, were clamping down drastically on ANY off-topic post. They were very harsh and even resorted to locking out non-registered users to keep everyone controlled and on-topic. I just don't understand the difference tonight. I am now finding myself on the defensive for my comment which was apparently perceived as an attack on Phil. If that is how my comment was viewed, then I am truly sorry. While I have never met Phil in person, his great sense of humor and genuine concern for others comes through vividly in his posts. I would certainly never do or say anything to harm him.
Let's just forget I made the comment and get back to our discussions on Jeanne and her impact on Florida.

Hopefully there are no hard feelings by all....

--Lou


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32357 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:39 PM

Colleen, easy on the aspirin. If you can take non aspirin products and get the same relief, take them. Aspirin products reduce the normal clotting time for a cut or gash. In other words you might bleed a little longer. Under the circumstances, you might consider Non-aspirin products if you can take them. In case you get a cut or something. Just my 0.02

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32358 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:40 PM

Phil, just like you said earlier ... from the NHC discus .... "THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE."
-----------------
this just in from Tampa TV Ch. 8 ... Pinellas Co. EOC just announced a mandatory evac for mobile homes.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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AmoryBl
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: recmod]
      #32359 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:41 PM

It's very calm right now in Mulberry. I don't know what to expect. Our local MET says it should be south of the NHC forecast. Anyone else see this?

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Kristin
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32360 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:44 PM

How far from the eyewall do the 115mph winds go? My house is in Hobe Sound, between Stuart and Jupiter...
P.S. I'm NOT there right now!!! Actually, I'm in Tampa... looks like I can run, but I can't hide!


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LI Phil
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: recmod]
      #32361 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:44 PM

Lou,

As one of the founding fathers of CFHC, (sort of)= you not me, nothing I may have recently PMed others was a direct attack...believe me, it IS frustrating trying to sypher thru posts when a thread goes off topic...everyone in the entire state is so shell-shocked I made the executive decision to let everything thru (basically). I'd love to read a cliff notes in the morning, ya know

Lets dispense with the chit-chat...we're all in this together, or why the hell would we be here?

This IS and continues to be "THE SEASON FROM HELL" but I think it's almost over...one more hurdle that goes by the name of Jeanne.

For the next 24-48, I decree this is now "LOVE ONE ANOTHER" time and let's all pitch in to help answer/find/espouse info for the greater good.

If we face another, we'll deal with that too.

The only thing I'm disappointed in is the fact that the Rabbit never showed up to even try the voodoo hex...

Ah, the power of cheese...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:46 PM)


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Frank P
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Posts: 1299
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: recmod]
      #32362 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:45 PM

sure looks like the eye is trying to tighten up a tad as it makes landfall, at least that's the impression I get looking at the radar loops....

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BillD
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: recmod]
      #32363 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:47 PM

Lou, I am with you on this. I made a similar statement, thiis has nothing to do with Phil. However I dio think that the rules around here are not enforced equitably. But such is life.

Bill


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32364 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM

Thanks, Daniel...I took 2 Tylenol instead...but man are my ears popping. It sounds like Jiffy Popcorn going off in my head.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jshoo
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32365 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM

Amateur radio operator KA4WJA is on a sailboat anchored near Stuart, FL and is operating on 3.760mhz ssb giving running account of Jeanne's crossing. He is currently in the eye.
ARS N4KIM, Jim


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32366 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM

>>As one of the founding fathers of CFHC

Were you mostly lurker status back then? It seems you emerged out the last 2 years or so. Also, how did you get 1000 more posts than I have? Lol. I was the first to the 600 category, and that was earlier this summer or late last year. /punk

LMAO

Vicious storm #4 for Florida. Let's hope this one's a rap for the Floridians.

Steve


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: BillD]
      #32367 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:49 PM

COme on everyone. Can we please drop it an talk about the hurricane.

Doesn't it seem as if the edge of the eye hit the florida coast and then the eye started shrinking with the edge staying right on the coast.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32368 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:53 PM

Yes, let's drop it and stay on topic now. I mentioned to Frank P. that it did indeed look like the eye shrank, also. Don't know what the heck that means.

Pressure here is 29.56"
Winds At N 23 with Gusts to 35

Seems a lot higher than THAT. God what are we in for here????
Not to mention the rain hasn't even started.....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Tampa Area
11pm Forecast Map [Re: alan]
      #32369 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:53 PM

Did the NHC decide not to do an 11pm map? It's now nearly 12am and still no map on their site.

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Wxwatcher2
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Thoughs on Jeanne [Re: BillD]
      #32370 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:54 PM

Live in Fla but watching Jeanne from Geogia tonight.

Looking at the radar loops, I'm noting that Jean is a dryer storm than Frances was. Not raining much North of Cape Canaveral at this point.
Heavier wind in the eye wall. The immediate coast where the eye is landfalling is getting pounded. Reports of roofs being blown off and cars being blown off a bridge over the intercoastal. Let's hope the car report was false.

NOt sure what all the remarks were about earlier. LI Phil,
you are part of what makes this board rock..

Hang in there everyone. Jeanne is gonna be mean as she cuts across the state tonight.

Be kind to one another.


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32371 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:55 PM

Melbourne radar shows the eye moving on shore fairly consistently. Maybe a fifth of the way in by my reckoning.

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RONJON
Unregistered




Re: Storm slowing down? [Re: MikeC]
      #32372 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:55 PM

Is it my bleary eyes watching now seemingly infinite loops, or is Jeanne slowing down? The latest NHC track has slowed her down with about 20+ hours to go from Stuart to Crystal River. Great if it verifies - alot less wind on the left coast. Not so good for FW flooding though.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Weather In Seminole County [Re: alan]
      #32373 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:55 PM

The weather here in Seminole County (20 miles N of Orlando) is going downhill rapidly. Winds have gotten much stronger in the past 30 minutes. I just looked outside and a tree is already down on my nextdoor neighbor's yard. Looking at the Melbourne radar, I see what appears to be the first really severe rainband getting ready to enter our area. It is just nudging into Eastern Orange County (for those unfamiliar with Florida, that is the county Orlando is located). It is racing west very qucikly and will likely move through my area in the next half hour or so. Beyond that, is the solid bulk of the truly nasty stuff that Jeanne has to offer. This looks like a Loooooooong night.

--Lou


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LI Phil
User


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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Steve-unplugged]
      #32374 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:57 PM

Quote:

>>As one of the founding fathers of CFHC

Were you mostly lurker status back then? It seems you emerged out the last 2 years or so. Also, how did you get 1000 more posts than I have? Lol. I was the first to the 600 category, and that was earlier this summer or late last year. /punk

LMAO

Vicious storm #4 for Florida. Let's hope this one's a rap for the Floridians.

Steve




Steve, I went back and corrected it about 30 seconds after I posted it...I meant LOU was one of the founding fathers, not me...I lurked for maybe 5 years...

How's the hurricane partay?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32375 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:58 PM

TWC has the new map up...and it still looks like that NW turn will occur, only later on. Which is not a good thing right now.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: Weather In Seminole County [Re: recmod]
      #32376 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:00 AM

Lou, that nasty band you're talking about just came through here in the last 15 minutes. It was a doozie! Hang on! A little lull now but the radar shows we'll be getting hit pretty steady now for the next hour.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: Weather In Seminole County [Re: recmod]
      #32377 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:00 AM

Yep that band looks real rough. I was watching it too. Hang on she's not through yet.
Would the warm water in the Gulf Stream have anything to do with the eye shrinking?


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Steve-up
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32378 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:01 AM

>>How's the hurricane partay?

Taking it easy tonight with some extra crispy tater tots to go along with my extra crispy brain. Word.

Steve


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AmoryBl
Unregistered




Re: Weather In Seminole County [Re: danielw]
      #32379 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:02 AM

They are showing winds of 100+ in Osceola County in a band right now...anyone over there able to let us know what to expect in Polk?

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 95
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32380 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:02 AM

I still get the 5 p.m. map.

It sure looks like the landfall point is about the same place as Frances.

I was thinking this was pretty extraordinary to have two hurricanes hitting the same place the same season. Well I got to 1996 and Fran and Bertha hit the same spot on the NC coast.


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: 52255225]
      #32381 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:04 AM

Yeah, it does seem like Tampa will be getting it pretty hard- did I just hear the met on ABC down here in Tampa GUARANTEE us that 35mph winds would be our worst? Is he smoking something? We already have gusts that high and we haven't even come close yet!! As for myself, I will be buckling down tight here soon if things stay the same.

IMPORTANT: I don't know whether or not this will become a necessity or not, but if things become too bad here in Tampa, I will be evacuating to USF. I have keys to the main building (SCA) and I have a lab there, which has no windows, awesome backup generators (for the research equip), is definitely flood-proof and strong, and even showers and fridges. So, if there is anyone local that needs EMERGENCY shelter and has no other place to go, please let me know and I will be happy to hunker down there or help you have access. There is plenty of room and it will get you through the storm, but I can only provide for a limited number in EMERGENCY.

Please be advised: I will be bringing my girlfriend, two adult and 5 puppy chihuahuas as well, so be prepared for the fun! Second, this is NOT an official shelter nor can it be used for anything more than just RIDING out the storm- no good for use after that. I just want to be able to help out anyone who is desperate or in emergency need, since all the warnings and evacs seem to be last minute as of now.
Please let a moderator know or pm me.

(If this is an okay post, I will give the mods my phone/email to give out on an as needed basis- will a mod please let me know?

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32382 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:04 AM

Steve Lyons on TWC is really determined to see that long awaited NW turn... he's been talking about it for 4 days now. I have this mental image of Jeanne continuing west, making landfall in Corpus, TX and Steve Lyons swooping his hand NW saying "We expect it to turn northwest any time now...."

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Kristin
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32383 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:05 AM

Can anyone tell me?

How far from the eyewall do the 115mph winds go? My house is in Hobe Sound, between Stuart and Jupiter...
P.S. I'm NOT there right now!!! Actually, I'm in Tampa... looks like I can run, but I can't hide!


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USFTampa
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32384 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:06 AM

NHC 11pm map now up.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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viking
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Kristin]
      #32385 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:08 AM

I believe Hobe Sound is in the eye right now.

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ShanaTX
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32386 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:09 AM

I have found more links to live feeds on the net- these are from WPB

live feeds on the net

WPB:

http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/index.html

http://www.wflxfox29.com/

http://wpecnews12.com/

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/

Here in Austin, the ABC News now (secondary digital channel) has had info on tonight.

I can post more live feeds as I find em if ya'll want but I don't want to bug ya'll. I found them originally cause friends on other boards keep askin me what's goin on.

And yes, in Austin TX and think we were popped with the blob that was Ivan earlier today. Hard to tell tho.

Anyway, if there's anything ya'll can think of that I can help with.. holler.

And please ya'll be safe, K?

'shana


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LI Phil
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Steve-up]
      #32387 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:10 AM

Steve,

If you're still there...

I'm not trying to rip new ones...aren't we all in this together in some weird way?

You had an excellent point...my post sounded like Mike C & I founded these boards...when you, me and about 1000 others know that's not true.

I'm trying to help some poor folks right now and I've missed sleep and meals to do so.

Sorry if You think that's "tater tots" or whatever....

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Weather In Seminole County [Re: AmoryBl]
      #32388 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:10 AM

I will try again, the cat just knocked me off the line. To answer your question. It may depend on your location in Polk because of the land mass in relation to storm angle. I would imagine that the area closest to the angles of bands coming from the storm would get the most storm intensity. If you have a band spinning off at high velocity, you will get the strongest part. If you are on the tail end of the slowing down part you will get less. Especially if you get caught between the bands, it may get deceptively quiet. This was true in my neighborhood in Frances. Depending which street you lived on your house did not suffer shingle loss. Two houses down in a swath, there are tarps on the roofs. It is truly interesting.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32389 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:11 AM

USFTampa- you rock! People here's a someone opening a door if you need it.

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alan
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32390 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:11 AM

Just went out side to walk the dog one last time before the storms start in NW Orange County. It was pretty calm, much like it has been all night.

All of a sudden, bam, I get hit by at least a 30-35 mph wind gust. The gusts are still going.


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AdvAutoBob
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Cape Coral reporting in [Re: USFTampa]
      #32391 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:12 AM

Back from grabbing my generator....

Winds WNW 20-25 sustained, gusting to 40MPH
Barometer now 29.45
While at my shop (a mile from home), the power started to flicker, and some of the businesses in our industrial park were without power, but snapped back on as I drove past. It's a matter of time before we're dark here, but I'll stay as long as I can....

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Colleen A.
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32392 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:13 AM

Actually, there's a reason for that turn to occur...if you look at the WV loop for the Gulf of Mexico, look the to the left of Florida...that's what will push Jeanne more NW and then North. Since it came in further south, it will have more of an impact on Tampa Bay area. But I don't believe it is going to exit the state and go into the GOM.
Then again.......

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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USFTampa
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32393 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:14 AM

Thanks! For anyone who missed it, please see Page 3 of the board for an offer of EMERGENCY assistance...still waiting on a moderator to okay it, but check it out anyway.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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Mike991
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32394 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:15 AM

For some reason I have a bad feeling this thing is going to make it into the GOM and take over where Ivan left off up here in NW FL. I just don't see it making the turn and breaking through the ridge to the north before it makes it back to the gulf, but one can always hope.

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Kristin
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: viking]
      #32395 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:15 AM

Thanks, I guess I'm just a little nervous about what I might come home to... Frances ripped off half of my shingles, and I don't think that the winds were as strong in Hobe Sound as Jeanne's appear to be.

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Ga Resident
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: alan]
      #32396 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:16 AM

I have a question that I'm hoping someone can help me answer. My husband is having surgery Monday in Gainesville Ga. I live near Toccoa, Ga. I am undecided on where to take my children. Is it better to be as far west as possible? I'm not sure where my children will be the safest.

I know this isnt Florida, and God Bless all who are going through this. But I'm very torn about where my children should be. I will be there at the hospital with him & dont know if they should be home in the basement, or at the medical center.

I'm sorry if this seems trivial, but I am very concerned about this. If one of you with experience could take a look at a Georgia map, can you please give me your educated opinion?

Thanks so much.


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viking
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27.2 80.2 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32397 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:17 AM

Norcross just brought up the official landfall coordinates for Frances and Jeanne were 27.2 and 80.2. Frances was a Sun at 1am, Jeanne a Sat at Midnight. Another strange thing to add to this season.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32398 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:17 AM

ShanaTX,
There are lots of people on here that don't have cable tv, but have internet. I personally don't think you are bothering anyone by giving out info that could save their life. If you find more links put 'em up. Ft Myers, Naples, Tampa, Orlando. I'm sure there are people here from those areas that don't have cable tv.


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tenavilla
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32399 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:17 AM

The met on ABC here in Tampa (Dennis, I think?) just said that he thinks the NHC track is off, since it forecasted an immediate NW turn that hasn't happened. He said that he thinks it will end up tracking through Polk, Hillsborough then Pasco counties. Which is not good for anyone in the Tampa Bay area.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32400 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:20 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
* UNTIL 100 AM EDT
* AT 1151 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FOR THE ONSET OF EXTREME HURRICANE WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE AS THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

* WINDS TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FLORIDANA BEACH...BAREFOOT BAY...
MALABAR...GRANT...VALKARIA...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MELBOURNE BEACH...INDIALANTIC...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...AND SATELLITE BEACH.

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM)


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Staggy
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32401 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:21 AM

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32402 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:21 AM

Was that ABC Met Dennis Phillips by chance? This wouldn't be the frst time

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32403 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:22 AM

That Dennis guy is just not my favorite dude- I mean, 45 minutes ago he said that Tampa wasn't even going to get much more than 35mph winds, now he is putting it over us- he is just too matter-of-fact for a met. Just my P.O. Again, Page 3 for anyone who missed it.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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Frank P
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Official Cat 3 at landfall [Re: danielw]
      #32404 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

In case anyone had any doubts..............

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN


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Colleen A.
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32405 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

Yes, that would be Denis Phillips. He's good. The mets here have been saying that even though the NHC kept insisting it was going WNW that it WAS NOT. And they were right.
If you want to see some really cool imagery, check out Steve Jerve and Jen Hill (I think that's her last name) on Channel 8. They have the VIPIR models, and it explains a whole lot more than the the OCM can at the Weather Channel. All they do is POINT at the STUPID CONE and say "this is the general direction........." Even AFTER it makes landfall. Sheesh.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: viking]
      #32406 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

Landfall is on the south end of Huch island. I cant remember the spelling and I use to live in Pt.St.Lucie.. Anyways my target for Jupiter was only 10 miles off ,, within the 25mile zone I give and well within the 100 miles for a 3 day forecast the NHC gives that I gave out. Still she will move across on a just north of west motion for the next 3-6hrs then bend more to the wnw by morning into the afternoon and then wobble NW to the west of Lakeland by noon. Winds will be down to Tropical storm strength by the time she gets north of I-4. Rains up to 10inches near the center and by the east and west coasts. Many spawned tornados.
On a side note, not many strong feeder bands came across the western half of the state today as dry air in the mid levels cut off any reaching ability of Jeanne. Over the keys currently there a very strong band where the mid levels are not as dry. Anyways the dry air will be push out into the gulf overnight as the rains squalls become more intense over the western half of the state from 2am on. The hurricane force winds on the east coast should go down to TS force on the treasure coast by mid morning. Mass power outages will cover the state. Flooding in many rivers and lakes during the next 3 days. Many spawned tornados .....As like I been saying over the last 3 days here that we must learn from the environment around us that the models dont put in. We saw how Ivan went wnw and nw into TX/LA we know Jeanne will stay wnw into Lakeland before a more west turn. It isnt out of the possibility that she even makes it to Clearwater then ridge up the west coast. Anyways on the west coast of florida they should recieve winds around 50-80 mph ,, the higher closer to the center passage and also just sw of her if your on the gulf. I suspect surge of 4-6 ft alittle more then forcasted. Sarasota south should recieve winds from 30-50mph with higher gusts. Orlando will get the same as the Tampa-Lakeland area. After Jeanne moves north of Ocala later Sunday night,, we will have at least a week of calm then our attention will switch to the western carribean and the sw gulf as Oct will bring 1-2 storms from that area.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Ga Resident]
      #32407 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

GA Resident... the latest path puts Jeanne heading into GA and turning to the northeast, passing southeast of Macon. Winds will be down to the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 40 or so by then .. the windfield will be quite large, but should not be threatening. Rain will be your biggest concern... but nothing that you need to evacuate from, unless you live in a low lying area or along a river or other major drainage. Good luck with the surgery...

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Ga Resident]
      #32408 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

As a resident of Atlanta, I would say the best bet is to wait it out until at least noon today(Sunday). By that time we should have a good indication where Jeanne will be heading into Georgia.

But as a rule of thumb, if it heads out into the GOM(Gulf of...) and tracks more northerly through Alabama, then you may want to stay in Gainesville since Toccoa may be subject to flooding. but IF it takes the predicted path by the NHC, the nearest it will get will be Athens. basically watch Channel 2 news at noon and David Chandley will have a pretty good handle on it.

The most important thing is to get as much information as possible and don't go into flood prone areas.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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LI Phil
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32409 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

Quote:

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.




Sorry to anyone to whom I have not responded...I'm taking them one by one...

I tried to call him about 20 minutes ago and it was busy...as soon as I get done with this PM/post I will try again...

Thanks everyone for your concern...hopefully my next post will be a report of Richie...that damn red flashing envelope now reads 8.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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RevUp
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Ga Resident]
      #32410 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

Quote:

I have a question that I'm hoping someone can help me answer. My husband is having surgery Monday in Gainesville Ga. I live near Toccoa, Ga. I am undecided on where to take my children. Is it better to be as far west as possible? I'm not sure where my children will be the safest.
I will be there at the hospital with him & dont know if they should be home in the basement, or at the medical center.
Thanks so much.


At this point, I would plan on doing what you were going to do in the first place, unless local emergency officials advise otherwise. You should be left of Jeanne's path - probably just a lot of rain (again). Our prayers go out to you, your husband and family.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32411 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:29 AM

Jervey and Hill are the only folks next to the WC that I watch, they show everything including the time when your gonna get it.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32412 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

The last 4 position updates from the NHC have all been on Lat 27.2. Jeanne has traveled some 45 miles straight west... no turn yet.

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cindylou
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Re: Thoughs on Jeanne *DELETED* [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #32413 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

Post deleted by cindylou

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: RevUp]
      #32414 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

TWC-Stephanie is broadcasting while the eye of the storm passes over.

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52255225
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32415 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:36 AM

Thanks Scott! Dennis Phillips is saying he wouldnt be surprised if it exits right over man/sarasota county. Atleast it will only be a 1 or less.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32416 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:38 AM

In 6 hours Jeanne moved from 27.1 to 27.2

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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RevUp
Weather Guru


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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32417 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:38 AM

Why does everyone want to compare TV mets against NHC, and trash NHC? They complement each other. TV mets are doing a lot of now-casting and time filling; their story is sometimes about as fickle as the wind. NHC only issues once every 2-6 hours. Their roles are supposed to complement each other. Any TV met that trashes NHC on air doesn't deserve to be there.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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LI Phil
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32418 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:39 AM

Quote:

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.




JUST SPOKE WITH WXMAN RICHIE!

Yes, he lost power and he's in the dark...but other than that HE'S FINE! We didn't even talk about the yankees.

Thought this was "not as bad" as Frances...but I let him know all y'all were concerned...

He never did get to to talk to Jim W because Jim W lost power before HE did.

I just hope everyone else may be having a better time than in the past...

I'm here...sorry if not recently as I've had to answer 17 PMs and there are still six more...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #32419 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:39 AM

Stay safe everyone.
Will check in later in the moring.


Warren Sapp.....still a force to recon with....


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alan
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Re: Thoughs on Jeanne [Re: cindylou]
      #32420 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:40 AM

Quote:

I'm little nervous, but here goes my first post:

I found this site during Ivan and quickly became hooked ... many thanks to all of you for sharing your knowledge and time!

I'm in Dixie County, on the West Coast near the mouth of the Suwannee River. Our county is very small (population and budget wise) and although everyone here works very hard and does their best, it sometimes seems harder to get local information here than in the bigger cities. (media, website, etc.)

It looks like the storm is projected to pass close to here. Can someone give an opinion about what we can expect? I promise not to hold you to it ...




It's too early to say for sure, because there are several of us who wonder if it won't be further south than what the NHC is calling for.
But, you should always go by their judgement first and they say it will be right near Cedar Key with winds of 50 mph. Some trees will be blown down and there will be some power outages.

Anyone still up from Melbourne. My son lives on Dairy Road with the ex-wife. Would really like to know what's going on. I'm watching the news and it's not pretty.


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MBolton
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Ga Resident]
      #32421 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:41 AM

I think you will be safe in either location. I'm in Savannah, GA but don't expect must here that we haven't seen before during a thunderstorm. I don't know how old your kids are -- but perhaps having the entire family together at the hospital at Gainesville (actually I spent the night there once myself with a snakebite) would be a good choice. The winds will be minimal there.

Best Wished.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32422 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:42 AM

Here's what's going on in East Orange County right now:
Advanced Observations For:

Discovery MS
Orlando, FL
Elevation: 106ft

Data as of: 12:34 AM 9/26/2004
Current Conditions
Temperature: 76.2F Pressure: 29.48"
Average Wind: 19mph NE
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 71F
Heat Index: 81F Monthly Rain: 4.65"

So Far Today
High: 79F Rain: 0.12" Rain Rate: 0.00"/h
Low: 76 F Gusts: 47mph NNE

The metal roof on this building is making a hell of a noise. Our generator still hasn't cranked up, but it is loud out there! I hate these storms. It's going to get alot worse than this, I know. I hate the noises these storms make.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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AmoryBl
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MBolton]
      #32423 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:43 AM

Does anyone in Polk Co. think that this might be worse than Frances due to the speed of the storm?

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: FireAng85]
      #32424 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:44 AM

spoke to mom in Vero about an hour ago. Her and the dog are camped out in the bathroom. She lost power a while ago. She said it gets pretty scarry sounding outside, but she's okay.

--------------------
Kelly


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #32425 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:44 AM

Quote:

In 6 hours Jeanne moved from 27.1 to 27.2




And Dr. Lyons will still be forecasting "the northward turn" when Jeanne makes landfall in TX

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32426 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:45 AM

Latest path and graphical wind field

New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path forecast as large errors may occur. All areas under warning must prepare.

If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source or official weather outlet. Your local news is the best source for updates and alerts as these storms move on shore.

The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.



Note to dial up users: This is a 124k file - (about +/- 30 second DL @ 56k)

Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/jeanne_windfld50.jpg


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RevUp]
      #32427 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:45 AM

Quote:

Why does everyone want to compare TV mets against NHC, and trash NHC? They complement each other. TV mets are doing a lot of now-casting and time filling; their story is sometimes about as fickle as the wind. NHC only issues once every 2-6 hours. Their roles are supposed to complement each other. Any TV met that trashes NHC on air doesn't deserve to be there.


None of the mets I've seen have trashed the NHC. Just because they say they're not entirely sure that the NHC track will verify doesn't mean they're trashing them. Disagreeing is not the same as trashing. And...before anyone says anything, all the mets I've seen have also said to listen to officials/NHC and evacuate/prepare when asked. Because the NHC only adjusts their track every 6 hours, that does leave a lot of room for error, especially after landfall when you're dealing with moment to moment changes that make a huge difference in how areas are affected. The fact that it's staying west longer than the NHC expected makes an enormous difference in where it ultimately goes. The local mets are able to react to those things much more quickly than the NHC. For instance, the NHC won't adjust their track until 5am, when it will already be more than halfway across the state.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32428 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:45 AM

Quote:

Lakeland...pressures dropping and I know that because my ears are popping and my head feels like I have a vise around it.

Time for another aspirin.




Hey, Col! If your ears are still popping, try chewing on some gum or sucking on a sucker.

--------------------
Kelly


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RevUp]
      #32429 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:46 AM

This local met supposed trash talkin is like dejavu! I think it was Francis that the local met comparisons took place. Imo they have to do 24hr coverage with the radar right in front of them and the viewers and if it aint goin right yet then they cant say see the north turn, something like that im sure you get my drift.

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1994plj
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: AmoryBl]
      #32430 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:46 AM

Friend in Tampa reports as of 11:30 pm, authorities are going to mobile home parks in Pinellas County with bullhorns and evacuating residents onto school busses.

Edited by 1994plj (Sun Sep 26 2004 12:50 AM)


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rugrats
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32431 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:47 AM

Scott I must compliment you on your posts they are very informative, however I am sometimes dense with what I am reading!! My question is...do you think this will make it out into the GOM? From what I read in your post and my limited knowledge of what town is where, I assuming that it will make it close to the west coast and then start its turn never entering the GOM, is that correct?
Sorry for the stupid question but I just wanted to make sure I understood what you were getting at!
To all who are going through this "nightmare" God bless you and thoughts and prayers are extended to you and yours.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: 52255225]
      #32432 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:48 AM

Quote:

Thanks Scott! Dennis Phillips is saying he wouldnt be surprised if it exits right over man/sarasota county. Atleast it will only be a 1 or less.


Well, it's after midnight, and the guy has resorted to saying anything that pops into his head. How irresponsible! Sarasota Co.? C'mon!

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carol_melbourne
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32433 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:49 AM

We're on the edge of cat 1 winds now in Melbourne. So far very Frances-like but it could get worse if landfall does make her turn further north. The good news is, my power isn't even flickering this time. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Vero Beach and south must be getting it bad about now.


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: 52255225]
      #32434 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:50 AM

see tenavillas post thats what I really had in mind! boy my mind is going, its getting late but im afraid to go to bed. The wind is starting to howl every once in awhile.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32435 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:53 AM

Quote:

None of the mets I've seen have trashed the NHC. Just because they say they're not entirely sure that the NHC track will verify doesn't mean they're trashing them. Disagreeing is not the same as trashing. And...before anyone says anything, all the mets I've seen have also said to listen to officials/NHC and evacuate/prepare when asked. Because the NHC only adjusts their track every 6 hours, that does leave a lot of room for error, especially after landfall when you're dealing with moment to moment changes that make a huge difference in how areas are affected. The fact that it's staying west longer than the NHC expected makes an enormous difference in where it ultimately goes. The local mets are able to react to those things much more quickly than the NHC. For instance, the NHC won't adjust their track until 5am, when it will already be more than halfway across the state.


Good point. Yes, you're right, they don't trash NHC, but I've seen one or two come close -- they don't dare bite the hand that feeds them.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #32436 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM

The beginning of the effects on Polk County are about to hit us in about 30-45 minutes. Max Mayfield just said that we are going to see the beginnings of the worst between 3-6am.
Denis Phillips is expecting the track to shift further south...which is even worse for us.
So if you're not prepared right now, get ready. I just heard a large "BOOM" and I don't know what the heck it was, but ABC News reporter in Bartow just talked about a large explosion---more than likely a transformer. If that's what I heard, ...well, I'm ten miles from Bartow.
Hang on to your hats, folks. Get your flashlights ready, and you may want to put fresh batteries in a radio because if the power goes off there are many radio stations that broadcasting simultaneously with the various stations---and you're not going to want to go through this without a reassuring voice from somewhere.
Other things: IF you lose power, unplug your appliances that you aren't using (if you don't have a generator) such as your stereo system, washers and dryers, stove, computers, etc. If you have the old-fashioned cord phones, find them and plug them in because even if we lose power, we may not lose phone service.
Just trying to pass on information as they give it out on the news stations.
Ok, a tree branch just hit the side window of my house. Oh yeah, if you have a fireplace, close the flue. Don't want torrential rains coming in from the chimney.
I am running on pure adrenaline right now and when this is all said and done I think I'll be sleeping for a week.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
good live video coverage [Re: RevUp]
      #32437 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM

http://www.tcpalm.com/


been watching live coverage....pretty good station ....nbc 5

jeanne needs to begin turn or she'll be in GOM in morning near tampa!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Anyone? Anyone? [Re: RevUp]
      #32438 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:56 AM

Got this message in a PM, any help would be appreciated:

My husband is scheduled to go to West Palm on Monday. Are the airports closed as of now?

Any news about the WPB power outages?

Thanks

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32439 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:56 AM

Thanks Phil! Great news on Richie! Keep up the good work!

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RevUp]
      #32440 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:56 AM

Can any one tell me where to find airport closing info? My husband is flying to WPB on Mon. Will it be open?

Will WBP have power?


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #32441 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:57 AM

Looks to me like the eye is starting to lift a bit more toward the NNW as it has moved more than 1/2 on shore. Anyone else seeing that? I'm watching the Melbourne Radar loop via Wunderground.com.

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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Several Questions/Comments [Re: 1994plj]
      #32442 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:57 AM

First off... I've been lurking for the last 2 months or so and finally decided to register this morning. Thanks for all the hard work you guys do! My first comment is in regards to how UF has handled this storm (and the others for that matter). With each storm, they are waiting until the last possible minute to decide what to do about class schedules and offices. My wife has been begging me to take a weekend trip to Jacksonville to get away from Jeanne (she's scared after all the damage we took from Frances). However, I feel like I can't leave until I can be sure I won't HAVE to work on Monday. Unfortunately, that information won't come until it's too late to leave!

2nd comment concerns my weather observations for the day. I remember during Frances that it was noticeably windy/gusty for at least 36 hours before the eye even made landfall. However, today, the winds didn't pick up until a little after noon. I don't know that this means anything... just thought it was interesting.

Next, I was curious as to weather anyone could generate a map sometime tomorrow evening showing the paths of Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. I think it would interesting to see how each of these storms tracked over the state on one map.

Finally, I was watching FOX News earlier tonight with JB and he mentioned something I thought was interesting. He said that he thinks what we're seeing with all these FL hits has something to do with his theory of "Coinciding Tracks" or something like that. Does anyone know anything about this? Is it a real theory (and what is it's real name?) JB went on to say that he didn't think FL was done yet this year. He also said that he expects this track theory to be seen again in the next 5 - 10 years near the New England states. Any thoughts on this?

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32443 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM

I heard a boom up here in Apopka. It was accompanied by the blue flash.
In the past storms, we didn't hear the boom because the wind was harder.


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Kristin
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: mud1967]
      #32444 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:01 AM

I'd say he might be able to fly in, but don't bet on power... he might as well reschedule.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: LI Phil]
      #32445 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:01 AM

Quote:

Got this message in a PM, any help would be appreciated:

My husband is scheduled to go to West Palm on Monday. Are the airports closed as of now?

Any news about the WPB power outages?

Thanks


They need to contact the airline, and any local contacts in WPB. Some places (esp. south and west county) are planning business as usual by Monday.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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carol_melbourne
Unregistered




Re: Several Questions/Comments [Re: VandyBrad]
      #32446 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:02 AM

Could be Florida has become a "strange attractor" as they call it in chaos theory, I believe.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: LI Phil]
      #32447 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:03 AM

Quote:

Got this message in a PM, any help would be appreciated:

My husband is scheduled to go to West Palm on Monday. Are the airports closed as of now?

Any news about the WPB power outages?

Thanks




Posted this one page ago...trying to help...but maybe I'll just call it a night...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32448 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:04 AM

Im feeling the same way here, I was getting a lil tired until I start hearing that howling wind! its really scary because ive got all these huge oaks around me, enough distance between our home and them that if one or 2 fall it shouldnt land on the house never the less its still scary. I dont know if i should stay up all night or just try and go to sleep.Im leaning towards pulling an all nighter.

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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32449 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:05 AM

Davenport, Polk County, I4 and 27 this may be my last post. Power and cable just went down for about 15 sec. Transformers blowing. Winds were about 35-40 but now almost dead calm again. Why can't this s#!t happen in daylight??? I have my house cooled down like a meat locker, 20 gal of water in the fridge, 40 # of ice in the freezer, about 40 batteries, full coleman lantern, full hurricane lamp. Let's get it on.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: RevUp]
      #32450 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:05 AM

I hope your right..

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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32451 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:06 AM

Quote:

Looks to me like the eye is starting to lift a bit more toward the NNW as it has moved more than 1/2 on shore. Anyone else seeing that? I'm watching the Melbourne Radar loop via Wunderground.com.




I've been seeing the same thing - thought at first my eyes were playing tricks. But it's persisted - the eye seems to be running up the coast.


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nppam
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: North Port, Florida
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RevUp]
      #32452 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:06 AM

For what it's worth, here in North Port, FL (extreme southern Sarasota Co.), it's not too bad yet. Steady winds of maybe 25 mph with higher gusts, scant rain bands. I am concerned about Jeanne's painfully slow increase in latitude--since I sit at around 27.1 N and Jeanne has taken almost 38 hours to move up one full degree of latitude. I hate to go to bed only to find Jeanne passing overhead in 4-6 hours. Has the high in the Atlantic retreated so Jeanne can turn more northward, or not? Boy, these nighttime hurricanes really bite. Good luck to all Floridians--what a price we pay to live in paradise.

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davet
Unregistered




Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: alan]
      #32453 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:06 AM

the boom was a transformer in my back yard @ SPRINT parking lot on 436. I was out there taking a smoke break. WOW pretty impressive. I work with 460v industrial electrics every day... have seen some pretty cool BOOMS, but that one REALLY WAS BIG

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: davet]
      #32454 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:07 AM

Quote:

the boom was a transformer in my back yard @ SPRINT parking lot on 436. I was out there taking a smoke break. WOW pretty impressive. I work with 460v industrial electrics every day... have seen some pretty cool BOOMS, but that one REALLY WAS BIG




I was doing the same thing. Smoke break. It kind of freaked me out.


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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32455 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:08 AM

I agree. the eye looks like it's starting to ride up the coast ....

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RevUp]
      #32456 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:09 AM

Ease up! The mets in Tampa are reporting what they are seeing RIGHT NOW and RIGHT NOW it is not taking that NW turn. They are doing more than filling time, my friend. The NHC stuck with GFS and GFDL until yesterday, when we all saw that high digging deeper to the south. The mets weren't buying it. WHO WAS RIGHT?
I don't have the time or the patience right now to deal with these issues. Your eyes are the best source of information. Use yours as you like. It may begin to turn to the NW soon, but it hasn't done so yet, and I believe that Denis Phillips predicted a further south landfall area at 9 and that's exactly what we got at 11pm. Just because you don't work for the NHC doesn't make you any less qualified to deliver the weather AS IT IS OCCURING.
The timing right now is crucial, and it makes a lot of difference when and where the turn to the NW takes place.
Don't take this as a personal attack, because it's not. I'm just stating the facts as they are unfolding. This is very important to a lot of people in the TB area, and I think all they are trying to do is keep us all safe.
We're all tense, but we need to try and keep our heads clear --- even though our eyes want to close.
Stay safe, my friend.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Several Questions/Comments [Re: VandyBrad]
      #32457 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:09 AM

Quote:


Next, I was curious as to weather anyone could generate a map sometime tomorrow evening showing the paths of Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. I think it would interesting to see how each of these storms tracked over the state on one map.





Yes. Charley and Frances have already been plotted. Waiting for Jeanne to finish her journey.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: adv 50A [Re: davet]
      #32458 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:09 AM

landfall with winds of 120mph near southern end of hutchinson island...movement a little north of due west at 13mph... center 10 miles west of stuart florida..... 27.2n and 80.4w..... no changes in watches/warnings.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:10 AM)


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Ga Resident
Unregistered




Re: Heads UP, Polk County! [Re: alan]
      #32459 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:09 AM

Thank you all so much for your answers. It makes me feel a bit better. You all have helped a lot of people..how many, you may never know.

God Bless you. Stay safe.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: 52255225]
      #32460 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:11 AM

Sorry was afk,.....1st question is on will it go out by Sarasota? I doubt that highly but its not a gurantee it wont. I would say the farthest south would be southern hillsborough thru pinellas out by clearwater. Do I think it will go out into the gulf though north of there? Well there is a 1/3 chance. Its better then say it going east of Orlando. Finally, with mets to other mets we will always agree to disagree. On tv will we acknowledge our own team of mets even if we feel they have a wrong thought on something. On the NHC we will say to follow their guidance. SO WE ARNT TO BLAME...heheh but in general if you look at the Melbourne-Tampa-Miami - where ever we coordinate with other NWS areas to help give out tweaks in our forcasts wtih their ideas. We always team up to get on Best same page.

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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32461 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:12 AM

WINK TV in Ft. Myers just said that it's still moving west at (on?) 27.2 N at 13 mph. They also said the wind was 120 mph.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32462 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

I just heard 120mph on NBC as well. How on earth did it increase 5mph as it was making landfall???

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32463 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

wink just got 1am adv.... yes it made landfall with 120mph and is moving slightly north of due west.... here's recon!

URNT12 KNHC 260426
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/0426Z
B. 27 DEG 11 MIN N
80 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2753 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 027 DEG 95 KT
G. 304 DEG 44 NM
H. EXTRAP 947 MB
I. 11 C/ 3081 M
J. 15 C/ 3080 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF980 2311A JEANNE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 95 KT NW QUAD 0418Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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alan
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32464 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

That information was from the 1 p.m. advisory, which was written shortly before then. It's now 1;13
The movement more north is shown on radar. Stuart is now on the Southern edge of the eye.

Edited by alan (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32465 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM

think 1 AM advisory!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32466 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:17 AM

yeah Colleen, I don't see any nw movement either.. if anything, more of a westerly movement with some wnw thrown in.. looks like it is headed towards Spring Hill area up north of us. Gary Vickers, Pinellas County EOC just said on tv that they expect high tropical storm force winds here in Pinellas and that hurricane force winds were going to be just north and east of us and that it could change. Looks like our area will start getting the wrath about 5 am till about noon or 1

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Colleen A.
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32467 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:17 AM

WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RickInRockledge
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32468 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:18 AM

check for NW movement http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan

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scottsvb
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32469 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:18 AM

yeah she has strengthn thanks to the St Lucie river,,,LOL JK....anyways for real she did though with the center interacting with land and tightning up the gradient from the water to landmass....although it has gone up to 120, it will start going down 10mph from now on every 2-3 hrs. Well I was going to say my landfall of 948mb was off thinking it was 953mb but now since its 947.2 I was right now. Beer anyone?

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alan
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32470 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:20 AM

Quote:

think 1 AM advisory!




Yes it is...

My body tells me to go to bed, but I just can't!


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32471 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM

well, I don't see it.. I still see west with a touch of wnw.. but, maybe I'm blind.

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52255225
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32472 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM

Your the best Scott!

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ShanaTX
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32473 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM

Hoping to help:

TV stations that are livecasting on the web:

West Palm Beach:

http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/index.html

http://www.wflxfox29.com/

http://wpecnews12.com/

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/

Fort Myers

http://www.abc-7.com/ -live feed
http://www2.winktv.com/ - info, no live feed
http://www.nbc-2.com/ -live feed

Naples

http://www.wzvntv.com/ - -live feed

Miami

http://www.wfor.com/ -live feed
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html live feed

Tampa

http://www.wfla.com/ info, no live feed
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2004/9/26/56414.html list of radio stations simulcasting Bay News 9
http://www.wfla.com/ list of radio stations simulcasting

Jacksonville

http://www.wawsfox30.com/ -live feed
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/ info, no live feed, webcams
http://www.news4jax.com/index.html no live feed, has County By County Storm Status

Orlando
http://www.wesh.com/index.html
http://www.wftv.com/index.html -live feed
http://www.local6.com/index.html live feed

'shana


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32474 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM

i think winds picked up right before landfall, because of water temps close to beach and the eyewall closed off to about 40 miles wide, compared to the 50 miles wide 3 hrs earlier.... had a eyewall replacement just before landfall...also the 120mph i heard was from a ground level observation on that island where eyewall came ashore....sustained wind too... i am thinking now she may exit near tampa into GOM, she is much faster than Frances!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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alan
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Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32475 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:23 AM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html

At landfall, the top of the eye is half way across St. Lucie County to the north and across all of Martin County to the south. Now, the eye is the entire distance of St. Lucie County and only slightly in Martin County.


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BinCA
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Ga Resident]
      #32476 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:24 AM

Ga Resident: May I point out that by the time it gets to GA the wind shouldn't be the problem. As others have stated, flooding will be. Unless you are quite sure your house will remain high and dry, I would be concerned about the kids in the BASEMENT. They'd probably be safer upstairs (an interior room just in case there might be local tornados). But why not keep them with you? The hospital would certainly be a safe spot and you wouldn't have to worry.

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Staggy
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32477 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:25 AM

Quote:

WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...




Max Mayfield said on a local station here (Miami station) that a plane found the 120mph winds around the time of landfall. It said they were in an area that they hadn't been able to measure or something to that effect.


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scottsvb
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32478 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

The overall movement is about 280dg. the eye has been oval shaped and lopsided and as it wobbles it looks like it going more N or W but in general there is a just north then west course. To see a more N turn you would have to see the southern part of the eye move north for 3 hrs along with the northern part. When you right now see the northern part move nw,, you also see the southern part more wsw. Overall its just the eye is contracting in and out 1-2 miles per frame.

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Humanriff
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32479 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

Quote:

Beer anyone?




Yes. Mass quantities (or whatever Dan Akroyd used to do on the coneheads).

FWIW, some guy told me today at the liquor store when I was stocking up that they had suspended sale of alchohol in Brevard county at 6PM. Talk about adding insult to injury.....


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RevUp
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Re: Official Cat 3 at landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #32480 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

Ease up everyone! Here's an earlier post ....
Quote:

In case anyone had any doubts..............

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN




--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32481 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

great stuff Shana - thanks

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Bloodstar
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Need Advice [Re: danielw]
      #32482 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

Ok, In Pinellas County FL, Very close to Tampa Bay, I am seriously debating with a few friends going and getting some sand in trash bags and doing a basic sandbagging of the house, During Frances, the watere made it to the back porch, I'm thinking this will be worse, particularly the furtehr south it treks...

what's the best way to sandbag the place, and yes
if it looks like it's going south of me, I'm going to evac... though i just drove by the shelters near me, they're all closed....

links or thoughts would be MOST appriecated
thanks!

Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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VandyBrad
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Re: Several Questions/Comments [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32483 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

Thanks Skeet!

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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Colleen A.
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32484 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:28 AM

That's pretty much what happened with Charley, too. All right, I gotta take a break, the dog's mad at me.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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alan
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32485 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:28 AM

Nicely put Scott, as always.

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: LI Phil]
      #32486 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Got this message in a PM, any help would be appreciated:

My husband is scheduled to go to West Palm on Monday. Are the airports closed as of now?

Any news about the WPB power outages?

Thanks




Posted this one page ago...trying to help...but maybe I'll just call it a night...




WPB Airport website is offline, but check http://www.pbia.org/ tomorrow.

edited to add: Also, check the tv station list for live feeds, they may answer ???s

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32487 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

>>> Beer anyone?

Heh...somehow I pictured scott as the rob lowe character from "St. Elmo's Fire".....

Folks, sorry for the see saw ride today and tonight...You're in more than capable hands...I've been on these boards since 10am and I'm mopped...to anyone I've offended sorry, it probably has to do with lack of food & sleep...to anyone I may have helped, I try...to anyone who's just found this board...we really do rock...not my finest hour but MIKE C is the bomb, JOHN C is too & Ed Dunham will forget more about weather than you will ever know....HanKFranK and Coop still rock!

Colleen, Frank P, Skeet, Luis, Danny, A bunch of guys named Rich or derivations thereof, Kevin, Scott (and some derivations thereof), mbfly, and countless HUNDREDS I'm forgetting make these boards what they are....

In the immortal words of Homer J. Simpson...mmmmmmhhh......sleeep

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32488 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

Thanks for the clarification, Scott. I know it's not always the best way to spot a trend.. staring at the radar loops.. Selfishly, my area gets less impact the more due west she continues. Less impact meaning, 80 mph instead of 95.

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VandyBrad
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32489 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:30 AM

As the eye interacts with the land, you'd expect it to ride up the coast a little. I'd assume there is some sort of diffraction effect going on. I guess the best analogy to use would be to think about driving on a paved road onto a dirt road. When you first change road types, you turn a little.

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32490 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM

Okay folks. For those of you that don't have cable tv. ShanaTX just put up about 2 dozen links for info.

If you watch the Weather Channel loop, with the grid overlay, you can see a slight move toward the North.
I'm thinking the 120mph may have come from a mesovortex located just south of the center at landfall. But I can't find data to support that yet.
The eye did manage to contract prior to landfall, and may be the reason the northward move is apparent. The eye contraction could also increase the windspeed temporarily.
Recon had reported an extrapolated pressure of 947mb, but the report was quiclky corrected and the pressure removed from the 0426Z report.


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Second Shift
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Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32491 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM

This is probably a bad time for a met question. Do the embedded tornadoes in these hurricanes resemble the dynamic which produces suction vortices that spin out from the main vortex in F3-F4 tornadoes (there is a great video of this showing the F4 that struck Edmonton Alberta in 1987)?
You guys are all great!

------------------------------------------------------------
Eat a corndog today!
"It is sometimes better to keep your mouth shut and be thought
a fool than open it and remove all doubt"-Abraham Lincoln :?:


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Clark
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32492 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:33 AM

I haven't been around much the past few days, getting actual work done (a nice change, I guess, from following these beasts), but the second of the two options I presented a few days ago -- the more westward track into the state -- has come to fruition. But, where does it go from here?

If we've learned anythnig from this season, it's that storms are going further west than predicted before turning. The ridge to its north is gradually weakening, but it still extends a good bit to the west without a whole lot pushing it back east right now.

Best prediction would be for it to exit the state into the Gulf again a bit further south than what Frances did -- and probably a tad bit stronger at that point. Somewhere between north of Tampa and Crystal River looks to be my bet, with a gradual turn again to the NW with time. Overnight early Monday morning -- probably between 2 & 8 am -- a second landfall somewhere near or just east of Apalachicola is likely as a minmal hurricane. From there, the storm should being to turn N & NE. Thus, this track is a bit stronger than the NHC's track, a bit faster to begin with, and about 75 miles further west.

Everyone in the Panhandle needs to watch this one closely Sunday, as we may see some extension of the hurricane advisories up the coast. I've heard from a few NWS forecasters around the SE that they expect the storm to hit the Gulf again...it's just a matter of where and for how long.

Stairstep tracks like Frances took across the state will be pivotal, so this is one instance where minor wobbles are something that need to be closely followed.

Best of wishes to everyone in this thing's path..and here's hoping Gulf season is a downer.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32493 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:33 AM

dude - Seminole middle school shelter is open.. go to Park Blvd to 131st, go north to 86th and should be on the right.

As for sandbagging, I am in Redington on the Intracoastal and my home sits at five and one-half feet above sea level and I have placed 2 sets of bags (high) across my sliding doors toward the bay. My dock faces directly north so I might not be too bad because the surge element will come from the west and sw winds about 10 am they said. Considering high tide in Madeira is at 11:53 (2.53 above seal level), it will be close considering 75 mph gusts throwing water at me. I just throw them down with one corner angeled in, the next bag angeled to it and so on.. it has always worked.


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Staggy
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Re: the HIRT team [Re: VandyBrad]
      #32494 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:34 AM

check this from the HIRT team at http://hurricanetrack.com

News & Comments Updated: 11:20 PM EDT, September 25, 2004...

RAGING WIND HERE IN VERO- HIRT TAHOE HAS BACK WINDOW BLASTED OUT! WE ARE ALL SAFE- BUT IT IS A MESS OUT THERE!
The wind will have to go un-measured by us now- we just lost the back hatch window on the Tahoe from a branch smashing in to it at over 60 mph! We are safe- but the the Tahoe is damaged. We were about to go live on MSNBC when BAM! something hit the Tahoe from behind. Glass is all in the back- but that is fixable.

We are now under a concrete bay at the local hospital where MSNBC has been reporting all evening. The pressure is down to 976 millibars and the wind seems to be letting up a little. We will venture out during the eye only in a small area to see what damage we can see. Even I know that it is dangerous to go outside during the eye- so I will not go far from the grounds of the hospital here in Vero Beach. I will try to post more video updates here once the eye passes over.


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AdmittedHacker
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Re: adv 50A [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32495 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:35 AM

Anybody else see a pattern here...(?):

NHC Update 11:00 p.m. Friday: THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN

Update at 11:00 am Saturday: THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

1:00 am this moring: ...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

If I were on the Gulf Coast I don't think I think I would count on the NW turn happening on schedule... eventually, yes... but when... definitely later than they thought. That much is known...


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mud1967
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Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32496 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:36 AM

Thanks!!

Any news on power outage numbers? I'd like to know the state wide number.


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Bloodstar
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Re: Need Advice [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32497 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:36 AM

Quote:

dude - Seminole middle school shelter is open.. go to Park Blvd to 131st, go north to 86th and should be on the right.

As for sandbagging, I am in Redington on the Intracoastal and my home sits at five and one-half feet above sea level and I have placed 2 sets of bags (high) across my sliding doors toward the bay. My dock faces directly north so I might not be too bad because the surge element will come from the west and sw winds about 10 am they said. Considering high tide in Madeira is at 11:53 (2.53 above seal level), it will be close considering 75 mph gusts throwing water at me. I just throw them down with one corner angeled in, the next bag angeled to it and so on.. it has always worked.




Thanks for the heads up on the sandbagging, the big problem, I just moved into this house... 6 weeks ago...
LOL

this was a really really really bad time to pick this house...

Ok, I also found a website on sandbagging ... here is the link for anyone else who might need it in the future:

http://www.valleywater.org/Emergency_Info_and_Preparation/Sandbag_program/index.shtm

Be back in a bit, time to go to the causeway and grab some sand...

Mark


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32498 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:41 AM

looked like there was an eye replacement cycle occuring right at landfall. Is that possibly why the eye deteriorated so fast?

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davet
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Re: the HIRT team [Re: Staggy]
      #32499 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:42 AM

"we just lost the back hatch window on the Tahoe from a branch smashing in to it at over 60 mph! "

Perfect example of WHY to board up. Car windows are VERY tough.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: adv 50A [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32500 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:43 AM

Well, at least we know for sure Jeanne Will turn. When is the Big Question.

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Humanriff
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32501 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:44 AM

OK. Wierd question. I just went to take a p and the water in the toilet was almost in whitecaps, bobbing up and down. Since I've never seen it before in my life, I know it means something....

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ShanaTX
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Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: mud1967]
      #32502 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:47 AM

Quote:

Thanks!!

Any news on power outage numbers? I'd like to know the state wide number.




I haven't run across that yet ... it seems to change on every broadcast. I figure we'll need to wait till after Jeanee goes by to get that true info...

Power Info:

http://www.fpl.com/
http://www.progress-energy.com/
http://www.tampaelectric.com/
http://www.ouc.com/

'shana


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: adv 50A [Re: danielw]
      #32503 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:47 AM

Oh yeah... it will turn eventually. The farther west it goes the more liklihood of a GOM entry, which opens up the possibility for more strengthening, another landfall, etc. The last five NHC updates now have all been at Lat 27.2. No deviation north yet...

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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OT: gouging [Re: danielw]
      #32504 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:48 AM

did someone mention gouging? Neighbors were saying earlier they found 5 gallon gas containers at a neighborhood home fix it up store priced at $25! I went and bought 25 3/16" tapcons with washers and was charged $31 at a local beach hardware store. The store owner proudly told me he sold over 10,000 the last 2 weeks. I went home and called 1-800-646-0444 -- the price gouging hotline and then wondered if he'll be as happy a few weeks from now.

What a shame.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Humanriff]
      #32505 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:48 AM

Quote:

OK. Wierd question. I just went to take a p and the water in the toilet was almost in whitecaps, bobbing up and down. Since I've never seen it before in my life, I know it means something....




There is a vent above your roof line that is sometimes referred to as a "stink stack" for ventilation aiding the flow of you sewer system. High winds flowing across this pipe can create a vaccum, causing white caps and tidal surges in your toilet. This is common in strong thunderstorms as well.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Humanriff]
      #32506 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:50 AM

If you have a septic system and you've had a lot of rain, you're septic tank may be overflowing. I've never seen whitecaps in a toilet, could you take a picture?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RickInRockledge
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Re: Need Advice [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32507 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:50 AM

Now THAT was worth staying up late/early to hear! Learning new things all the time!

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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Humanriff]
      #32508 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:51 AM

Humanriff... that wasn't your toilet, it was your pool. They get pretty frothy in a hurricane. NO MORE BEER FOR YOU!

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52255225
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Re: Need Advice [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32509 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:52 AM

We learn something new everyday!

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32510 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:53 AM

power outage around Vero: http://web.tcpalm.com/tcp/blogs/hurricanejeanne/000313.html

subscription but free..


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Need Advice [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32511 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:54 AM

You all aren't right. Skeetobite gets the prize!!

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ShanaTX
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Re: Need Advice [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32512 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:00 AM

Wowie. I'll need to remember that.

Altho, honestly, if the wind is blowin that hard here, I'd be hiding under something, not checkin the toilet water...

TY!


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Need Advice [Re: danielw]
      #32513 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:02 AM

On a more serious note... if Jeanne stays west she will pass over the north end of Lake Okeechobee. I know it's a very shallow lake, but it's very warm I believe (83 deg?). Will Jeanne draw any substantial energy from the lake?

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Seele
Unregistered




Jeanne Windfield Map [Re: MikeC]
      #32514 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:04 AM

This link has the windfield map at landfall and for the history of Jeanne so far.

http://cat5.nhc.noaa.gov/Hwind/Output1/Operational2004al110926.html

Also, you can go to the link below and click on the Operational folder for access to many storms over the last 2 years.

http://cat5.nhc.noaa.gov/Hwind/AnalysisOutput.html


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Humanriff
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Re: Need Advice [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32515 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:07 AM

Quote:


There is a vent above your roof line that is sometimes referred to as a "stink stack" for ventilation aiding the flow of you sewer system. High winds flowing across this pipe can create a vaccum, causing white caps and tidal surges in your toilet. This is common in strong thunderstorms as well.




Which just goes to show that there isn't anything about the weather that someone on this board doesn't know. Also gives me a chance to thank 'Skeet for his/her awsome graphics.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Need Advice [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32516 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:07 AM

Jeanne's north of Lake Okeechobee. Thank God.

This is worse than Charley and Frances, at least from my part of Polk County.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne Windfield Map [Re: Seele]
      #32517 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:11 AM

Seele, according to the maps you linked to. Jeanne was intensifying prior to landfall. Somewhat like Andrew.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Need Advice [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32518 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:19 AM

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004
...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE OVERNIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH POLK AND SUMTER COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LEE COUNTY NORTH TO TAMPA OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY BY LATE MORNING.
WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.


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scottsvb
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Clark]
      #32519 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:20 AM

Clark I thought if I rememberd right you said she would skirt the coast and ride up it or staying offshore? I must of missed your updated post yesterday or today.

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Liz L.
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: scottsvb]
      #32520 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:25 AM

the wind is horrible here in st cloud, rain and i have the tv turned up so i dont hear the wind. any news of the turn yet?

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Seele
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Windfield Map [Re: danielw]
      #32521 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:28 AM

Yeah, I noticed that. It supprised me and makes me worry even more for those in it's path. If you take a look at their landfall map of Ivan, it shows that Jeanne was more powerful at landfall. I'm not sure of how they are calculating this, but if you look sequence over the last 2 days, it seems to match the vortex messages.

I don't have a timeline of the votex messages, but I believe Jeanne was upgraded to Cat 3 before or around 1630Z to 1930Z on the 25th. If you look at that map the Cat 3 winds were localized in pockets of the NW and NE quads. Since that point, the pressure significantly dropped, but we were not seeing a corresponding increase in wind speed.

I'm not even close to educated enough to guess why they show such a rapid intesifiication between 130Z and 300Z(landfall) today. My speculation would be that the wind speeds finally caught up with the pressure drop, possibly some influence from the gulf stream. The eyewall did look like it became much better organized right before landfall and it also seemed to contract which would also cause a windspeed increase.

If you notice in the 300Z map, there are concentric eyewalls. Would the winds increase this dramatically outside the outter eyewall before the inner eyewall collapsed?


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Ormond Suzie
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How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: scottsvb]
      #32522 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:28 AM

Having a college kid in Sarasota, I'm concerned about this due west movement. Will Jeanne wait till the Gulf to make that northward turn?

I should have gone to bed hours ago (tomorrow's going to be the busiest time for those of us in Volusia, if Jeanne stays on track), but I've stayed up, watching for any hint of the turn.

Mom's tend to freak if there's any potential threat to their kids and I NEED to know, to get some kind of a grip on this question, before I can sleep.

Any thoughts?


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32523 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:29 AM

Quote:

WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.




Ouch - just what we needed to hear.. ughh..


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


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no [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32524 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:34 AM

still no rain here in seminole county

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32525 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:37 AM

I hate to be the first one to post this, and I might be way off base, but it looks to me like Jeanne has matured back to a fully west movement: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radmlb.html

Even possible she might be moving somewhat south of due west. Or, am I looking at eye wall shrinkage that seems to be indicating a west movement?

I also noticed the latest UKMet run has Jeanne exiting into the GOM around Bradenton.


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Humanriff
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Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32526 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

Quote:

Mom's tend to freak if there's any potential threat to their kids and I NEED to know, to get some kind of a grip on this question, before I can sleep.

Any thoughts?




Yeah, I feel like a real dumbass right now. My kids live in Daytona and I INSISTED that my daughter come over and ride it out with us. My son is worried about a retention pond that is about 2 vertical feet from their apartment. Now that the wind is starting to scream here I think he may be better off.... I don't have any answer to your question, but I know where you're coming from.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32527 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

No, I wouldn't think the wind would increase un til the cycle was complete and the eye had contracted. Some of the mets on the board could probably answer that better.
Susie and others. I have been looping the Miami radar, and at this time I can't see Anything but West. The eye is still elliptical, and that add some difficulty to identifying a move.
Here's a link for you. Use the range circle and county lines for judgement. The 0.5 loop at the top is the best.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 26 2004 02:44 AM)


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Liz L.
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Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32528 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

looks on a strong westward track to me too

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cmdebbie
Unregistered




Re: no [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #32529 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:41 AM

We are just beginning to get some heavy rain here in Oviedo (Seminole County) & very strong gusts! So watch out in Winter Springs, it is headed your way. The rain has already began to enter my home through the glass in the front door.

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scottsvb
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Re: Ouch [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32530 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:41 AM

Its over about the turn. I mean nothing to really talk about on that except for the Tampa people or maybe Orlando. She will bend to the north but like I said,, BEND. If she does continue on her current path for the next 3-4 hrs then she might make it into the gulf thru Tampa- just north of Clearwater. Thing is,,will she be 70mph or still a hurricane by the time she would enter the gulf????? Well if she does, she will gain some strength, although not much but enough to change TS warnings to Hurricane warnings up to Apolachiacola. As off 11pm I would of had the Hurricane watches changed to warnings from Tampabay N to Cedar key cause they could get winds of hurricane force sustained for 2-6hrs. The warnings for places like Broward county we KNEW wont get sustained 74mph or more but they were issued anyways. So why not the west coast where also the upper air data, water vapor loop and model trends with the GFDL and Ships showing winds along the west coast of florida in the mentioned area of 65kts or more........................

Edited by scottsvb (Sun Sep 26 2004 02:58 AM)


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vvvteddybearvvv
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Re: no [Re: cmdebbie]
      #32531 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:43 AM

alllright thanks

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Liz L.
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Re: no [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #32532 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:45 AM

really really horrible here in st cloud

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32533 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:46 AM

yeah - I am starting to put some stock in you Scott.. latest radar loops show west movement, if not a tad south of west. Like you, I think Tampa will be issuing hurricane watch/warnings at 4 am for the west coast (Sarasota & north) and then watch all heck break loose because they didn't do it earlier. Pinellas County only has 3 shelters open in the county right now and by 4 am, we might already have 45 mph winds when they shut down some bridges. What a mess.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32534 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:46 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ROTATION WITH WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF
HURRICANE JEANNE ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
INCLUDE ...VERO BEACH...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...GIFFORD...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...AND VERO LAKE ESTATES.


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AdvAutoBob
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Latest from Cape Coral [Re: danielw]
      #32535 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:51 AM

Latest barometric pressure is 29.33, winds 30-35 MPH, gusting to 47...
Track still looks due west to me..

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Bocajeff
Unregistered




Re: Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32536 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:54 AM

Quote:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ROTATION WITH WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF
HURRICANE JEANNE ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
INCLUDE ...VERO BEACH...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...GIFFORD...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...AND VERO LAKE ESTATES.




Port Charlotte is getting hammered again. Don't know the exact wind strength, but guess gusts to 50. My stove vent starts to scream with the gusts. What sucks is the wind is coming in from the North, Like Charley Did. So the half of my roof that is tar papered and FEMA tarped is getting hammered! If we get a direct hit with this West Movement, there will be Blue tarps all over the damn place!


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mud1967
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Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32537 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:57 AM

Scott,

Do you live in the Big Bend area?
I've had a bad feeling about this storm going unto the GOM and coming up to St Marks or around there. Any othre ideas?


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32538 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:59 AM

you can see that the wildest winds are still in the NE quadrant of the storm in this looping radar with vortexes can be fully believed: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan


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scottsvb
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Re: Ouch [Re: mud1967]
      #32539 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:59 AM

No, just NE of Tampa by 20 miles or less.

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mud1967
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Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32540 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:01 AM

Any where near San Antonio or Wesley Chapel?

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32541 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:03 AM

coming right at you Scott:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Time and Track [Re: danielw]
      #32542 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:05 AM

I mapped out 2 possible tracks.
1. from the North end of Lake Okechobee, to Sarasota.
around 106miles. At 12mph thats 9 hours.

2. from the North end of Lake Okeechobee, to Tampa Bay.
around 122miles. At 12mph thats 10 hours.

These Are NOT forecast tracks, they are merely to give you an Idea of how long before it arrives at 2 possible areas.
I hope it helps you.


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d0sitmatr
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Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: mud1967]
      #32543 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:14 AM

first off, hello all, my g/f showed me this site during Ivans dreadful track, so Ive only been lurking for s short time now, but I wanted you all to know how much I appreciate all the great up2date information you provide.

now, to reply about the power issues, while I do not have any #'s, I do have 1 thing to add.
FPL had a $250 million emergancy fund for repairs.
they tapped that last week with Ivan, they are now having to pull on credit lines (they have $1 bilion in available credit lines)
with Govorner Bush also promising to do everything he cna to help.

I also wished to add that in Naples the winds are currently 35mph gusting to 50 with a steady rainfall for the past hour.

[edit] my typing skills... are in sore need of a refresher...

Edited by d0sitmatr (Sun Sep 26 2004 03:15 AM)


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mud1967
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Re: Time and Track [Re: danielw]
      #32544 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:14 AM

Didn't NHC say that there would be a 3am advisory

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BocaJeff
Unregistered




Move North Finally?! [Re: mud1967]
      #32545 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:18 AM

Last Image in loop shows jump to the North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Humanriff
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Re: Time and Track [Re: mud1967]
      #32546 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:25 AM

Davenport, Polk County. This is the last post out of me. Power has gone off 3 times in the last 10 minutes. We are in a lull right now but I think the next blow is going to knock us on our butts. Hopefully have power tomorrow. See you on the backside. Godspeed to Jeanne, get the he11 out of my neighborhood....

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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


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Re: Time and Track [Re: mud1967]
      #32547 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:26 AM

Looks like it's finally starting to move a bit to the north. Here's something from the 3 a.m. advisory:

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERO
BEACH FLORIDA.

JEANNE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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scottsvb
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Re: Time and Track [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32548 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:29 AM

near NEW TAMPA. Bruce.B DOWNS area. Im off for the night....be safe all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Move North Finally?! [Re: BocaJeff]
      #32549 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:30 AM

That loop does show a jump, and a little bit of a northward move.
The jump in positions is due to satellite's eclipse with the sun, and the satellites being turned off for 3 hours. If you will check the times on the frames you should see roughly 3 hours difference between the last 2 frames.
A few posts above, there is a link to the SFWMD, with an outstanding radar picture. Allow it to load and loop. You can see that almost all of the movement is due West.


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Ormond Suzie
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Re: Time and Track [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32550 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:30 AM

Thank you to everyone who posted links for me and otherwise provided both information and support to a freaking-out mom. I think I'll take this northward movement as a sign that Sarasota (and my college kid) won't take a direct hit. Now maybe I can get some sleep before it starts getting bad here in Volusia. Goodnight. Stay safe everyone.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32551 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:39 AM

I'm probably going to try to take a 2 - 3 hour nap... and keep an eye on things... I'm not buying the northern movement at this point. if anything it might be doing a stairstep... but will it be enough to push it north of clearwater?

Keeping my fingers crossed...
so far we've had wind ... gusting to 30 or so... but nothing too severe yet, a few small branches down... I have sandbagged the back door to the house, and have sandbags for the garage if things start to ge leaky... but... I'm still a bit... worried...

I'm checking to see if any of my left coast friends are on and can give me a call to wake me up...

good luck all!
Mark


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Clark
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Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: scottsvb]
      #32552 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:49 AM

That was one of two scenarios I put out; the other being the move inland then turn. I originally thought the former was more likely, then changed to the latter. Just not *this* much to the west....so it's still a no go on the forecast verification.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Sadie
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Reged: Fri
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From Arcadia [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32553 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:49 AM

Can't believe I still have power. Lot's of howling and thudding. Eye is heading straight for us (again). Next 2 hours should be the worst. If Jeanne could start that turn it would be greatly appreciated. Know Highlands and Glades are getting slammed. My prayers go up for all.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Bev
Weather Guru


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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32554 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:51 AM

Is anybody up? I'm getting spooked. Wind is starting to gust pretty good here. Little one asleep peacefully upstairs. Me peeking through plywood and worrying.

Question: I'm directly on Palma Sola Bay in Bradenton, 2 feet above sea level. We are just south of Tampa/St. Pete. Our high tide is at noon tomorrow. Does anyone know or have an educated guess on how much storm surge we can expect here? Should I be moving things upstairs?

Thanks to all and thanks for the kind words from all of you who have been so supportive.

Hugging my chair to keep from being blown into the Den.

-Bev

>> Hurricane Magnet <<


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Bev
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Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32555 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:54 AM

Quote:

Can't believe I still have power. Lot's of howling and thudding. Eye is heading straight for us (again).

God Bless you Sadie. I was at my parents home at 1002 N. Lee Ave. in Arcadia for Charley and I know exactly how horribly Arcadia has been affected by the 'canes this year.

I sure hope you fare better during this one.

Best Regards,
Bev

>> Hurricane Magnet <<

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Sadie
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Re: Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Bev]
      #32556 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:54 AM

WINK TV just reported a bouy in Lake OK recorded wind speed 100mph.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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tones321
Unregistered




In Clearwater... [Re: Sadie]
      #32557 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:00 AM

Well, I'd say winds are gusting 40-50 mph here now. No rain yet... I keep watching radar loops over and over and using photoshop to overlay them on the NHC track. It definitely looks like Jeanne is going to make the turn a lot further west than anticipated. I'm wondering what we're actually going to get here in Clearwater....

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tones321
Unregistered




Re: In Clearwater... [Re: tones321]
      #32558 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:04 AM

oh, and is it just me or is there not much for outer rain bands with this hurricane? Seems like its large but very compact rain-wise. We've had maybe one squall line all day in Clearwater.

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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
From East Orange County [Re: Sadie]
      #32559 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:04 AM

Well, I was able to get about a 3 hour nap. The stuff is hitting the fan here now. The rain is sideways and it's really just getting started for us. This metal roof sounds like it's going to blow off. I don't know how accurate the WeatherBug thing is, but here it is:

Discovery MS
Orlando, FL
Elevation: 106ft
Click here to visit the website for this station
Data as of: 3:57 AM 9/26/2004
Current Conditions
Temperature: 72.5F Pressure: 29.34"
Average Wind: 21mph ENE
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 70F Heat Index: 77F Monthly Rain: 5.12"

So Far Today
High: 79F Rain: 0.59" Rain Rate: 0.64"/h
Low: 72 F Gusts: 55mph ENE

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Bev]
      #32560 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:07 AM

WINK reporter here in town says she has been out trying to acess damage, but can't tell what's from Charley and what's from Jeanne. Bev, are you surprised? This poor little town. Also WINK just had a phone call from a family here riding it out in a mobile home. They asked why he didn't seek shelter and he said he couldn't afford the gas to get to Manatee County. I think that's why so many people didn't evacuate around the state. We've all spent our vacation money long ago!!

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: From East Orange County [Re: FireAng85]
      #32561 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:08 AM

Oh yeah, and my husband took my children from Northern Lake County to my dad's in Tampa. Please don't let them get hit over there. For those of you that are kind of expecting it to go more that way, what do you think the winds will be like in Lutz? It's like Jeanne saw them go there and is aiming at them.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


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Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32562 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:16 AM

Gained some latitude I see. Too late to help us much. Hope it helps somebody.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Duncan
Unregistered




Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32563 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:27 AM

After taking a jog north, it appears to be going due west again, if it is going to miss the GOM, it better start taking a NW or even a NNW turn very soon.

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Cathy
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Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32564 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:43 AM

Here in Bartow - out my window there are bright blue-green flashes in the sky. My Guess quite a fewfolks without power now. Constant wind with tremendous gusts.

Anybody know the time of sunrise??


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
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Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32565 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:46 AM

From the NWS

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM HURRICANE JEANNE ARE AFFECTING HIGHLANDS EASTERN POLK EASTERN DESOTO AND EASTERN HARDEE COUNTIES. DURING THE PAST HOUR WIND GUSTS HAVE RANGED FROM 94 MPH IN SEBRING TO 50 MPH AT THE SKYWAY BRIDGE. OTHER GUSTS AT MOST OBSERVATION SITES OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE BEEN ABOVE 40 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING IN CENTRAL POLK AND HARDEE COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT HOUR UNTIL 5:20AM EDT

The Center Of Jeanne... Just North Of Lake Okeechobee... Continues Moving West Northwest. As The Large Eye Of Jeanne Passes Through Highlands And Southern Polk Counties...The Winds Will Lighten Considerably But Then The Winds Will Rapidly Increase From The South On The Eastern Eyewall. It Is Important To Remain Inside During Passage Of The Eye As Winds Can Increase Rapidly And Darkness May Conceal Hidden Dangers Such As Downed Power Lines And Debris.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: From Arcadia [Re: Cathy]
      #32566 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:51 AM

Sunrise is around 7:30am.

TS Warnings have been extended all the way to Destin; the warning and track regime are very similar to Frances through 72hr with the 5am advisory. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the west coast from the Suwanee River south to Englewood. They expect the center to pass very near the Tampa Bay area later on in the day.

Good luck through the night, everyone, and here's to a long stretch of benign days ahead after this storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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tones321
Unregistered




Tampa area under hurricane warning - expected Cat 1 @ 2pm today [Re: Cathy]
      #32567 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:53 AM

Tampa 10 News just posted that the entire Tampa Bay area is under a hurricane warning. Center is expected in the area at 2pm today

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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32569 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:58 AM

Outer bands starting to break up a little. Eye is having less definition. Every little bit helps at this point. But, for some reason known only to God, THE POWER IS STILL ON. According to WINK, it's off in town. I'm about 13 miles south. Have turned up the TV so I don't hear as much outside. So looking forward to dawn.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: From Arcadia [Re: Clark]
      #32570 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:03 AM


Good luck through the night, everyone, and here's to a long stretch of benign days ahead after this storm.




I hope you are right about benign days ahead. Florida can't take anymore


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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: From Arcadia [Re: SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL]
      #32571 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:08 AM

Just heard a large "crack" outside. One of my oaks' limbs? Wind and rain like crazy. Migraine headache that won't quit!

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southflhappygal
Unregistered




Re: From Arcadia [Re: Cathy]
      #32572 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:13 AM

as long as you are inside....you will be ok...it came through here pretty strong earlier.....

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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Cathy]
      #32573 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:17 AM

I am sleepless in Citrus county. It is VERY hard to get any information for my county...please can someone post for us?
What can I expect now that the path will be overhead????
I have come to Ocala to my parents but my husband stayed in the mobile home..I am so scared...thanks for all your great info...this web site is my life line.

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: From Arcadia [Re: Kruz]
      #32574 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:22 AM

I'm not sure what I can find out for you...but I will try

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Interstate4Jamming
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Lakeland, Florida
From North Lakeland [Re: Cathy]
      #32575 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:26 AM

Heavy rain and gusts my guess about 60 MPH. Fortunately still with electricity (my apartment complex grid is underground). Things have gotten stronger in the past hour.

--------------------
Visit my blog, Interstate4Jamming, a personal commentary on Polk County/Tampa Bay/Central Florida politics, life, and other issues of interest. Polk County is truly The Center Of It All, and there's never really a dull moment!


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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Re: From Arcadia [Re: SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL]
      #32576 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:31 AM

Thanks SouthFLhappygal!

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Kruz]
      #32577 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:31 AM

Where is citrus county?

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: From Arcadia [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32578 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:36 AM

Okay, I'm back.
Here's a county map of FL. I had to look too.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/florida_map.html


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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Re: From Arcadia [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32579 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:36 AM

Nice.....no one seems to know! Actually the nature coast. We are about 60 miles north of Tampa...the sort of pie wedge looking county.

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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LongTimeLurker
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Crystal RIver, FL
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Kruz]
      #32580 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:39 AM

Just sent you a PT, I am in Citrus County if you want to check up on the weather just send me a PT

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Kruz]
      #32581 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:39 AM

ok...i see it now...Thanks Daniel the link is a good one...do you have any info for Kruz?

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Arcadia [Re: LongTimeLurker]
      #32582 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:47 AM

Thank you LTL...the media is all about here!!! LOL....they are focused on down here and not even showing the forcasted track of Jeanne. I am glad someone can help Kruz

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Kruz [Re: Kruz]
      #32583 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:49 AM

I'm still looking for info. The Citrus county link is not working.
Here's what I found so far
HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

....WIND IMPACTS...
RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS WERE 94 MPH IN SEBRING AND 79 MPH IN
LAKE PLACID. A PRELIMINARY SURVEY IN EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY
INDICATES EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 170 MILES. HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO JUST
NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE OVERNIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH POLK
AND SUMTER COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LEE COUNTY NORTH
TO TAMPA OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY BY LATE MORNING.
WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY
NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH.


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: From Arcadia [Re: LongTimeLurker]
      #32584 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:50 AM

I just woke up and cant believe this! Im in manatee county. looked at the radar lop STILL no turn north! its coming right over us! s--t! how fast? what strengh? please tell me?

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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 16
Re: Kruz [Re: danielw]
      #32585 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:55 AM

Thanks Daniel....like I said..almost impossible to get any local info. I think that was what scared me most during Frances..no info.

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Arcadia [Re: 52255225]
      #32586 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:55 AM

Just heard on TV headed toward Gainsville.....possible tropical storm by then

Dolphinns still playing tonight


--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


Edited by SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL (Sun Sep 26 2004 05:57 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: From Arcadia [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32587 - Sun Sep 26 2004 05:59 AM

Quote:

Just heard on TV headed toward Gainsville.....possible tropical storm by then




I have no idea how they could say that on TV... the storm still hasnt turned, there are jogs to the north, but they're followed by quite a bt of west movement

Everything I see still says coming out on or just a hair north of tampa bay... and I really really want it north of tampa bay

Mark


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Kruz [Re: Kruz]
      #32588 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:00 AM

This link goes straight to the Hurricane Center.
It carries the latest statements from the local NWS offices.
They are being updated about every 3 hours tonight.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index_hls.shtml

If you have a way of contacting your husband. I would recommend that he leave the mobile home while he can. Tell him to take important papers, etc and double wrap them in plastic, and take them with him. There are a couple of shelters near Dunnelton.
http://hurricane.weathercenter.com/shelter/citrus.htm

This is a shelter list from TampaBayOnline. I hope it helps,and I hope you use the shelters. Please.

http://hurricane.weathercenter.com/shelter/


Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 26 2004 06:08 AM)


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32589 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:11 AM

Jusy heard it is making a slooooowwww turn to the NW....Tampa bay area needs to take heed!!! Find shelter other than mobile homes!
Tampa Bay area then Gainsville
PS...Hallandale and south have lifted all watches and warnings

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


Edited by SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL (Sun Sep 26 2004 06:12 AM)


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
From Pinellas County [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32590 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:12 AM

We are starting to feel tropical storm force winds here in Pinellas County. My location is now experiencing winds in excess of 40mph. The pressure is 29.35in and falling. We have not had significant rainbands yet, but the main core of storm is approaching from the east, and I expect hurricane force gusts in one or two hours. The lowest pressure from Frances I recorded was 29.03in, so we might get lower than that this time.

On another note. I awoke at 5:30am this morning to discover that Pinellas County emergency management just finally issued a mandatory evac for mobile home residents. Why did they not issue this yesterday? This is a serious lapse by emergency management and indicates how most people have downplayed Jeanne's impact on this area.

Ronn

Edited by Ronn (Sun Sep 26 2004 06:13 AM)


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BobVee
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Florida
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Kruz]
      #32591 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:15 AM

From beautiful surburban Montverde area. Wind gusts are exceeding 70 mph with heavy rain and Orlando Channel 9 doppler showing the eye of the storm just north of Lake Okeechobee. We are under every storm watch/warning that there can be except for snow. Anyone in a mobile home should be out, period.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Pinellas County [Re: Ronn]
      #32592 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:18 AM


On another note. I awoke at 5:30am this morning to discover that Pinellas County emergency management just finally issued a mandatory evac for mobile home residents. Why did they not issue this yesterday? This is a serious lapse by emergency management and indicates how most people have downplayed Jeanne's impact on this area.

Ronn





It seems that some county Mayors are NOT pro active....they sit around waiting to see what the surrounding counties are doing. Here( in Broward county Mayor) is one of them.....she is the last to be heard from......she is follower not a leader! Sorry to be off topic...but we all need to realize how much this impacts our lives

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


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Posts: 153
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evacuating [Re: Ronn]
      #32593 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:21 AM

Here in volusia county many coastal residents did not evacutate. Reasons being, no funds due to loses from Charley and Frances. The southern end of the county had no gas, hence no gas to even get to free shelters. Some evacuated to other areas last time that were hit harder than this area. The most common reason I have heard, is that they weren't allowed back home for extended periods of time last time and are just plain old sick of being stranded. Our shelters had 5600 persons in them with Frances, with Jeanne we currently only have 2200 in them.

With the exception of the southern most portions of this county we aren't getting hit as bad as they had predicted. I hope all those people are safe.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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tom spring hill
Unregistered




Re: From Pinellas County [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32594 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:22 AM

how fast are the winds going to be here in spring hill? on the hurricane alley websites they have spots on there for 95 mph winds. the winds here are 28 with gusts of 44. if the track holds out i would be on the northern side of the storm.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: From Arcadia [Re: BobVee]
      #32595 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:26 AM

I Can NOT predict where Jeanne will go. I can only map out where she's been and where she MIGHT be headed.
That being said, the Northward jog she has taken. Has lined her up where the eye will come really close to passing over Pinellas County. If I mapped the Possible track out right. Should Jeanne continue on this course the center will pass through Southwestern Polk County, the Southern half of Hillsborough County, and Over Most of Pinellas County.

I am not a met, and this is not a forecast. Merely extrapolating the track over the last few hours, and carrying it forward.
If You are in a Mandatory Evacuation area, and especially if you have Children with you. Please evacuate, NOW!


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: From Lakeland [Re: danielw]
      #32596 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:38 AM

Wow. Things are really pickiing up. Hearing sounds I never heard before!

What we are experiencing in North Lakeland (Close to I-4 & HWY98) is far more severe than anything we had with Charley or Frances. From what I see on radar, the bad stuff isn'ty here yet, but is on the way.

I'll post as long as possible. Have a system that should last a few hours after the power goes out.

Hope Colleen is doing ok. She's in South Lakeland - in the "Highands" as they call it, near the highest point in Polk County.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: From Pinellas County [Re: tom spring hill]
      #32597 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:39 AM

I wish we could tell you how fast they would be in your area.
The maximum sustained wind at this time is 110 mph, or 100 knots. Whichever you prefer. That will do a great deal of damage to houses and mobile homes.
73-112 mph
The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32598 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:46 AM

I'm in Ocala. I think the winds are stronger at this time than they were from Frances. We're getting maybe 35mph gusts. Reading the NOAA local advisory for winds I don't think we'll have higher winds than we did from Frances, but it sure looks like we'll be getting them for a longer time.

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: From Pinellas County [Re: danielw]
      #32599 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:51 AM

Why the attached garages? My current bedroom is a converted attached garage?

MaryAnn



Quote:

I wish we could tell you how fast they would be in your area.
The maximum sustained wind at this time is 110 mph, or 100 knots. Whichever you prefer. That will do a great deal of damage to houses and mobile homes.
73-112 mph
The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed.




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Re: From Pinellas County [Re: LadyStorm]
      #32600 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:53 AM

Quote:

Why the attached garages? My current bedroom is a converted attached garage?

MaryAnn



Garages tend to go because it's easier for the wind to get in there. Garage doors aren't as sturdy as a wall, and once that wind gets a way in, it tends to lift the roof off. If your garage has been closed in, you should be okay.

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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32601 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:54 AM

For anyone in need of live news, NBC-2 and ABC-7 are still on air live with their joint broadcast. Here is the link: http://www.nbc-2.com/.

Stay safe and my prayers are with you!

Karen


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scarycat
Unregistered




Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32602 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:56 AM

skeetobite, I just wanted you to know how much I and my co-workers enjoy your site. ThANKS FOR ThE WEBSITE!

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32603 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:58 AM

Quote:

Wow. Things are really pickiing up. Hearing sounds I never heard before!

I heard the same thing Skeetobite.....noises that were very different! The wind seems to be very strong from this storm....Please post till ya can't anymore

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: From Lakeland [Re: KC]
      #32604 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:59 AM

Huge arc with blue and green light. Power flickering. Won't be long now. I can see arcing of electric equipment in all directions, as far as the eye can see.

Lake Wales, which was hit very hard by Charley is now completely without power.


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: From Pinellas County [Re: tenavilla]
      #32605 - Sun Sep 26 2004 06:59 AM

If you think your garage door may cave in, a good tip is to park a car against it from the inside. If the door begins to buckle it is greatly strengthened by pressing against the automobile. Just roll the car back until it's touching the door. It doesn't have to be tight against it, just within a inch.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Pinellas County [Re: rule]
      #32606 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:02 AM

Great idea rule! That should work

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc:
Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32607 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:02 AM

Stay safe Tampa Bay Area.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: From Lakeland [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32608 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:03 AM

Oh no! have g/f in indian lake estates...just east of there

--------------------
Kathy
26.2N
80.1W


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: From Pinellas County [Re: tenavilla]
      #32609 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:03 AM

Thanks for the reassurance.

In Volusia County we are currently getting 35 sustained with gusts of 50.


Garages tend to go because it's easier for the wind to get in there. Garage doors aren't as sturdy as a wall, and once that wind gets a way in, it tends to lift the roof off. If you're garage has been closed in, you should be okay.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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RONJON
Unregistered




Re: Spring Hill Winds [Re: tom spring hill]
      #32610 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:08 AM

Looks like, on the current path, the storm will move over north Tampa and New Port Richey area out into the GOM - best estimate now - around 4 - 6 PM. That leaves roughly another 12 hours over land to weaken. By that time, maybe expect tropical storm force winds sustained of 50-60 mpg with gusts perhaps as high as 75 mph.

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Dolphinscry2
Unregistered




How about Lake Co? [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #32611 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:11 AM

Hope this will post ok, I am not at home, and on a friends computer in Leesburg-Lake Co. (and forgot password...)
I live in Sumter, and so far all I can gather is trees being down the majority of damage so far there? Does any one know?
Man., Im so excited we still have electric, my sis in law is baking a cake! Mmm German Choc. Cheesecake, now a hurricane tradition w/ us!
We are gusting around 40? I havent looked out much, as Ive been watching the news.
(Anyone else see that reporter topple?)
gads.
Anyway, if anyone has any info on northern lake and sumter so.'s Id sure appreciate it.
Stay safe all, (and dont forget, washing machines and hot water heaters hold water...)


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
exit path [Re: RONJON]
      #32612 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:21 AM

Hmmm.. I'm beginning to think Jeanne will exit a bit more north of Frances. Like Cedar Key, or maybe even start to curve back into North Florida. I'm looking forward to the NHC 11am track.

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Renee
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: exit path [Re: rule]
      #32613 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:35 AM

Yes, we too will be anxious to see the 11:00 am discussion (or just watching radar could be telling enough). We've missed the brunt of all these storms, however, we've had to be on guard each time....looks like it could be another overnight vigil.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: exit path [Re: rule]
      #32614 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:40 AM

Hello Everyone,

I am reporting from the Wekiva sub-division of Southwest Seminole county. The winds are howling. I cannot believe we still have power, but we never lost power through Charley or Frances either. All of the power cables are buried in this division. We are on the more outer of the bands and when the cells come, they rip through the area. I al completely boarded up and I feel a lot more comfortable with that.

I am concerned with the numerous mobile home parks along the I4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa. My mother is one of them in Plant City, FL. She is in a shelter but I am afraid there will be no house for her to go back to after this is all over. I can only imagine the wind and rain closer to the eye. It's bad here, it must be worse south of here.

God Bless and everyone do not get brave and venture out to early.


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: exit path [Re: Renee]
      #32615 - Sun Sep 26 2004 07:41 AM