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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne Inland in the Southeast
      #32945 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:43 AM

Jeanne, now a weakening Tropical Storm, is now inland in Georgia after making the turn northward yesterday.

The center of Jeanne is located in Central Georgia currently, causing wind and rain.

Damage along the coast from storm surge was greater this time than in Frances, including our place in New Smyrna Beach which lost the beach walkway and about 8 feet of concrete walkway behind the seawall.

Jeanne will eventually move up and out to sea around the North Carolina/Virginia borders, weakening the entire time. It may hold its own again once its out to sea, but that should be the end of Jeanne.

Lisa is already destined to be a fish spinner... so that leaves us with...

NOTHING! Hold a party... no storms currently. The season isn't over yet, but there is no discernable storm threats in the forseeable future.

Skeetobite shows the paths of all three central Florida storms...



Event Related Links

You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)

Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Jeanne Radar Image

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32947 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:59 AM

Good Morning everyone. I am home now and we got power back last night about 7 pm, according to the neighbors. Remember, I was at work and my husband and kids were in Tampa. Well, I need a new roof. The east side of my roof is down to the plywood in spots and paper everywhere else. The yard is mess but thankfully nothing hit the house. Thank God we're all ok.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32948 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:03 AM

Gainesville here... I don't know about damage to the city yet, but locally things look good. As of about 10pm, only 15% of the city had lost power (compared to 70% during Frances). The wind gusts seemed stronger, but I guess Frances wiped out most of the weak brances and trees. All schools and offices are closed today as well. It's still breazy outside, but looking better by the minute. And, there's this big bright orange circle in the sky. No one really knows what it is and its got my wife freaking out because it feels life we haven't seen it in ages

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32949 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:04 AM

Congratulations to Jason Kelley, and I hope everyone here did ok in Jeanne.

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poetdi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: VandyBrad]
      #32950 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:15 AM

Here reporting from Maitland, FL (northern Orlando 'burb) - amazingly very little damage in our old oak lined neighborhood - most of it already came down with Charley and Frances. My company has clients in Brevard, Volusia, Osceola and Polk counties, though, where there is more and more damage for those folks to deal with. Also a sister company in Orange Park, south of Jax, has no power - so it's all around. Personally, our house kept power until the very end of the major winds, but power came back on and was out no more than an hour or so, unlike the first 2 times when we were out for many days. We are grateful for our good fortune - prayers go out to all those on the coast and closer to the eye than we were. Glad too that there are no other imminent threats - can we let our guard down for a few minutes now?

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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: poetdi]
      #32951 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:34 AM

BARTOW: I just got home from Special Needs Shelter duty, been othere since 4pm yesterday. Went in between bands on the back side of the storm. Lots of trees have thrown themselves out of the ground - wires down, no electricity in most of the town, dawn to dusk curfew. I hear chainsaws in the distance and hear big trucks moving. Signs of recovery. But no ice or comfort stations yet.

Darn - my freezer is thawed . . .AGAIN!


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Anon
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32952 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:40 AM

Quote:


NOTHING! Hold a party... no storms currently. The season isn't over yet, but there is no discernable storm threats in the forseeable future.





Sure wish we could get 2 weekends in a row. But it looks like something trying to spin up in the southern Caribbean. NOGAPS shows something off central america ~144 hrs out. Maybe the second half, looks like this weekend will be ok.


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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Anon]
      #32955 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:58 AM

Davenport, Polk County here. Sun is out, light breeze. Just got power back. It went out about 7AM yesterday. Man, what an experience. I stayed up on the back porch all Saturday night as it came throughj and just watched it unfold. We lost a few shingles off the roof but considering the strenght of this one, not bad. We didn't even lose our privacy fence that I thouoght was going to come down for sure. In this part of the county, Jeanne was definitely worse than any of the other ones. Hope everyone out there is OK.

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clueless
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Humanriff]
      #32958 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:08 AM

Did okay by OIA as well. Apt complex lost some trees, watched LOTS of transformers blow so there are probably lots of locals with no power but yet again - Somebody was watching out for us - lost power for 6.5 hours. That has been 3 storms in a row with 6.5 hour power outages - how weird. It is just long enough to make you miss it but not long enough to spoil the food in the fridge Hubby went to work today and said there are a lot of traffic lights out, so if you can stay home in Orlando, DO! I am not going to be able to heed my own advice - gotta get out and get to work.
See ya'll later! Thanks again for all that you have helped me learn about hurricanes and for the support duinrg a rather trying season

Oh and BTW Jason - congrats on the little one - can you post some pix here for us to see when you get a minute -(Yeah right he won't have spare minutes until she goes to college)


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Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Cathy]
      #32959 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:26 AM

To my neighbors in Florida, I'm so sorry you've been hit again. Help is on the way from your neighbors in GA, just as soon as Jeanne gets by us.

I can only speak for most of us that are right on the coast when I say that we've been spared any major destruction. Jeanne is a mere shell of herself now. It's pretty windy on my little island at the moment, but it's nothing compared to what you folks in Florida have gone through. Like I said in an earlier post somewhere on this board, I'm 20 minutes by boat to the ocean, and not much land separates me from the Atantic, mostly marsh . Gusts are probably up to 50-55 tops, and those are few and far between. However, the tide is coming in right now, and the Ogeechee is fast and WILD. My neighbor's floating dock is now taller than his stationary dock, and the ramp is up in the air. The tidal ditch that runs along side his house is filled with water, with more water to come because the tide is far from high. It's possible that the Ogeechee could spill into my back yard a little. Time will tell. I suspect that the little asphalt road (that is eye level with the marsh) that rides me onto my island will be covered by water when the tide reaches its peak. I'll probably be stranded here for a few hours until the tide goes out. This has happened before, especially with high spring tides and is nothing new. My major concern at the moment are tornadoes. We're under a tornado watch for most of the day. Hopefully, they will not materialize. I hate those things!!!! And it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a waterspout in the distance. Ugh!

I do know one thing, if more than a category 1 hurricane is forecasted to hit me, I'm outta here! Just looking at my river right now is enough to convince me that it would not be wise to stay home and ride out the storm. My island would be under water for sure.


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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: clueless]
      #32960 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:28 AM

Ocala here. Debris on the roads not as bad as Frances. Guess she cleaned out all the dead wood. We have power at our office in Downtown Ocala, but everyone I work with spread out around Marion County is without power. A lot of street lights out, so driving is difficult. Saw the back of one building completely demolished. The bricks are lying all over the street. One of my co-workders has a tree through his garage, major damage there. But haven't heard of any fatalies in the Marion County area, so thankful for that.

Hope everyone else did as well as we did here.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: clueless]
      #32961 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:28 AM

Center basically came within 2-3 miles of me where it got bright and the winds calmed then it moved on to the NNW.I was without power for 21 hrs and it came back on at 1030am today. Im alot better off then alot of others of course. Anyways Jeanne did what I expected,, landfall was just 10 miles to the north of projection but then merged with the path I had over the state then it should exit close to or just north of Norfolk VA. After being downgraded they might make her back up to a TS or keep her Extra tropical a day after she moves offshore. Dont matter really.
Anyways next threats to the U.S. will be from underneath in the carribean and the Gulf starting over the weekend. Right now its a wait and see and nothing will really threatn until next week if anything at all. So we all have 4-5days off.


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Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32962 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:39 AM

Quote:

Anyways next threats to the U.S. will be from underneath in the carribean and the Gulf starting over the weekend. Right now its a wait and see and nothing will really threatn until next week if anything at all. So we all have 4-5days off.



Scott, you did such an excellent job of forecasting Jeanne's track. On behalf of myself and countless others, thank you for a job well done.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32963 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:41 AM

Hey all,

Guess those who have already checked back in are the lucky ones...thanks for the updates...I'm sure more of you will check in when you can as more power is restored...sounds like it was bad but it could have been worse.

As Mike & Scott have already said, we should have a week (and hopefully a month) without any worries, but we'll remain vigilant nonetheless...

In case any one missed it, Jason Kelley is now the proud papa of a baby girl, details of her are on the previous thread.

Everybody stay safe...let's hope this is the LAST of it for the season...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #32964 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:42 AM

Ty Terri, I try my best. Its a challenge.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32965 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:46 AM

Yeah, Scottsvb (I think I thanked you already, but if I didn't then) Thanks! I didn't do too bad myself, but you absolutely nailed it...

Agree with you also that the homebrew threats are probably our most pressing concern in the future...CV season will be shutting down soon and there ain't nuthin' out there...save for the fishspinner Lisa...only thing of interest with her is can she reach hurricane status...that'll affect the numbers for the season.

Cheers & Thanks Scott!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #32966 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:58 AM

Power back on!! (Charley wait was 8 days - this just 36 hours)

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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #32967 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:05 PM

St Cloud reporting in. we lost power around 4 am sunday morning had powwer restored around 7 pm sunday night. I feel blessed that we got it back so quick. according to weather officals here we had gusts anywhere up to 110 here. Lost a few shingles on the house, neighbors house lost the entire layer of shingles, other neighbors lost sheds etc. Federal crews are going thru looking for people that need temp. roofs courtesy of FEMA. I had large braches from the oak tree in my front yard come down and bang the roof( no damage we can see) and hit the covering we had over the front door. i have a lake forming in my backyard. Cant clean it up yet cause of it being to soggy. And i am awaiting the city to come look at their oak tree in my front yard its leaning towards my house and i think the only think keeping it up is the 6 inches of cement that i call my driveway. If it decides to fall i can stand to lose 3 cars and my house due to the citys neglingence of the tree. SO i am hoping now they take the buggar out before it falls. Many streets and roads are flooded here too. Thats all i have to report from storm ravaged Osceola county at this time.

Edited by Liz L. (Mon Sep 27 2004 12:09 PM)


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32968 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:10 PM

Hi, to all. Winds here in Port St. Lucie probably gusted to around 120. It was definitely a stronger storm than Frances Three weeks earlier. Only minor damage to house and Yard. The usual fences, antennas, dishes, trees, screnrooms, roof shingles, soffit. No major structural damage but others in neighborhood not so fortunate.
St. Lucie county is really hurting and it will take a long time to cleanup and many months to get back to normal.
school was supposed to start back today from the Frances damage. I have heard alot of new damage has been done this round.
I had experienced numerous tropical storms and hurricanes over the years but had come to relize that probably had never seen more than CAt 1 conditions before this year.
Maybe gust to around 100mph with David in 79 and maybe with Cleo in 64. Frances was to a higher level , a solid cat 2 at least, and Jeanne took things to a new level.of Cat 3- of this I feel certain.
The whole aftermath routine is fresh in the minds of people and everyone from the press to local officials are acting with the knowledge so recently learned. It is hard to prioritize what to do next with the number of things needing attention now.
I wanted to check and see if anything else was brewing and to touch base with all here at CFHC. It is hard to see this smaller cheaper moniter. I down sized from my 19" to conserve battery power and ability to stay online and run 13" TV. Hope someone is taping some of what the press has put out on what has happened here. Someday I will want to watch it.
Later
Hurric


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32969 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:23 PM

Port Saint Lucie Here! Well it seems we have had a tough month and hopefully, since we know the drill, we can get power back to most places within 2 weeks and all places within 3.

The one thing that really troubles me is the fact that our schools have sustained much damage and would like to see our kids back as soon as possible as they have had no school SINCE Hurricane Frances (3 weeks now).

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #32970 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:34 PM

Spoke to mom in Vero yesterday morning. She does have some damage. However, I've been trying to call her since. I'm starting to get slightly concerned. The rest of my family evac. to Orlando and I haven't had any contact with them since yesterday morning either.

--------------------
Kelly


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: kelcot]
      #32971 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:39 PM

A reminder; phone lines may be down or there may be sporadic service disruptions to land lines and satelite connections. Give it a while before trying to call, I just got back my land line service after being down since the early morning hours and I haven't lost cell phone service. Good luck!

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #32972 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:41 PM

I know the phone lines are down. But I was able to reach her on her cell phone before. Sometimes it rings then goes to voicemail and other times it goes straight to voicemail.

--------------------
Kelly


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: kelcot]
      #32973 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:51 PM

Checking in from the Boynton Beach / Lantana area. We headed to the Keys but those who stayed said it sounded worse than Frances but it didn't last anywhere near as long. More trees down in my area but we never lost power. Gotta love those underground (house / neighborhood built in 1995+) power lines.

My mod & dad's (Lady Lake) and sister's places (Ocala) got it pretty hard too. Mainly downed trees and no power.

No more. We have filled our quota for the next 10-20 years.

Edited by Staggy (Mon Sep 27 2004 12:52 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: kelcot]
      #32974 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:54 PM

Well if she has no power,,then she cant recharge her phone,,that was my problem with my cell. So she probably cant charge it to get messages. Unless she thinks about going to somewhere or someone who does have power to charge it......... just a thought of what could be wrong.

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Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #32975 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:54 PM

Hi Joe! Perhaps you can answer a question for me. How can your fellow Americans help all of you in Florida? Everyone I know has given at their own churches. Is there a better way that we can help? Please post your recommendation, and I'll help spread the word. BTW, I'm married to an accountant .

Edited by Terri (Mon Sep 27 2004 12:56 PM)


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poetdi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: kelcot]
      #32976 - Mon Sep 27 2004 12:57 PM

During Charley we lost cell phone service - and then it was intermittent, so maybe that's what's happening with your mom. Our land line just came back late last night altho our cells were not affected this time. Good luck and hope all is well.

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poetdi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Staggy]
      #32978 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:00 PM

Unfortunately my in-laws, who live nearby and are elderly, had their utilities recently put underground - and they are without power this time, altho with Charley and Frances they had power. Guess undergrounding is not necessarily a panacea.... but I do wish they would do it any way as it seems they do better most of the time!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Terri]
      #32979 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:00 PM

Quote:

Hi Joe! Perhaps you can answer a question for me. How can your fellow Americans help all of you in Florida? Everyone I know has given at their own churches. Is there a better way that we can help? Please post your recommendation, and I'll help spread the word. BTW, I'm married to an accountant .




http://floridadisaster.org/

scroll down to the "How Can You Help" section.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Terri]
      #32980 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:02 PM

Thank you! I've always recommended to give to the Red Cross. They are heroes during times of crises.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: poetdi]
      #32981 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:02 PM

Looking over the carribean basin I see a vort max near 13N and 77.5W moving slowly to the west near 7mph. Sorry to say this folks but this could be the start of a better organzied area of low pressure that might form off Nicaragua during the next 2-3 days. If it does then a TD might form by Thurs or Fri if they send recon down there by then. For now its just a vortex and nothing to get too worried about for the next couple of days.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32982 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:21 PM

Quote:

For now its just a vortex and nothing to get too worried about for the next couple of days.




Yeah, right! I'll belive that when I see it.

As for the mom....she does have a car charger. I know she's fine, but I'm just concerned because she's down there all by herself. I don't know when the rest of my family is coming home from Orlando. I can't get intouch with them either.

--------------------
Kelly


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Grasshopper
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #32983 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:22 PM

I live right on the cost (1/2 mile from the Strongest Frances gust in Tampa Bay @74 mph) Fences are down and trees are down. Light signs were blown away and almost everyone is powerless. Hope we can get a few weeks to clean up the debris. Think it would be a good time to buy a house? I would be willing to bet property values will drop around here. I have had 5 tropical systems within 400 miles of my place this year. jeez....

thank god for laptops.....

matt


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Liz C
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32984 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:32 PM

Holly Hill checking in......(just north of Daytona and south of Ormond Beach) We faired pretty well, only lost power for 3 hours, compared to 6 days with both Charlie and Frances. A few more roof shingles came off. I feel very blessed...my throughts and prayers go to others down south that did not fair so well. Thanks to all for this site.....it has been helped me and I'm sure others through this crazy season.

Liz


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Bloodstar
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Made it through [Re: Grasshopper]
      #32985 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:32 PM

lots of tree limbs and branches down
power erratic, and cable out... but I'm ok

may your recovery efforts be swift and simple..
Mark
Falcons 3 - 0...
scary... isn't it?


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Kent
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #32986 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:35 PM

Yay! Powers back! Damn Ficus tree got us again!

and LI Phil....
Thank you so much for keeping us calm during some tense moments on Saturday, You really helped so much with the info...eveyone here did. Even the iguana answers. Whoever told me what to feed them Thank you! Looks like we have a new pet in the house.

My moms in Vero and its bad. I have been able to talk to her via two way radio. If anyone is looking for info from that area go to
http://www.ircgov.com and
http://www.tcpalm.com look on front page for "forums" lots of helpful info there.

thanks again to everyone.
Oh but I do have to say one more thing:

LI Phil you there? Uuuumm.....I hate to tell you this but......
You're officially fired from "sucking" duty!



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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Kent]
      #32987 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:41 PM

I'm ALWAYS here! Thanks Kent for your kind words...

And don't worry, I will continue to suck for the rest of the season!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Terri
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #32988 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:41 PM

Quote:

Thank you! I've always recommended to give to the Red Cross. They are heroes during times of crises.



Thank you Phil and Joe. I printed out a copy of the Florida Red Cross chapters and their addresses. I'd like to urge others to help our Florida neigbors. They definitely NEED our help.


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LI Phil
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New Skeetobite Maps on the front page [Re: Terri]
      #32989 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:52 PM

Skeeter has put up two new maps on the front page showing the paths of Charley, Frances & Jeanne...with detail on Polk County.

Skeet, great maps...are you planning to do one for street level?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Kent
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #32990 - Mon Sep 27 2004 01:55 PM

A vort max Scottsvb? What exactly does that mean? and west means west right? Not north right? I have gotten better at grasping the Cape Verde storms but the ones off Nicaragua? Where do they go? What type of storms are the "home brews" that LI Phil just mentioned?

In other words...isn't Florida done yet?

a vort max is just an area of turning in the atmosphere. the problem storms this year have originated in the atlantic, but later in the year the western caribbean becomes a staging ground for storms. the home brew phil refers to is just a storm that develops due to the pattern near north america, not so much a wave propagating across that atlantic. hope that helps.. if the caribbean feature starts taking shape i'm sure there will be more explanations from the folks here... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 27 2004 02:37 PM)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: New Skeetobite Maps on the front page [Re: LI Phil]
      #32991 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:08 PM

Would do street level, but the eye was as wide as the entire county for Frances and Jeanne so the county map pretty much covers it!

The cross roads are in a sparsely populated area half way between Bartow and Fort Meade at 27.81679N 81.80135W (to be exact) ;-)


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SteveieB
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Re: New Skeetobite Maps on the front page [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32993 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:28 PM

Where are the T-shirts????????

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HanKFranK
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less to the north [Re: scottsvb]
      #32994 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:30 PM

we had the main feeder band pass over last night, and have been mostly in a dry slot since mid morning with the occasional brief band sliding by. trees swaying gently, puddles on the ground.. nothing bad here. there is an active tornado warning in the county, but that's for the rural eastern part. several tornadic supercells have apparently caused some damage over in the eastern part of the state, but nothing serious has been reported thus far. it looks like we may get less rainfall than with Ivan here.. can't say the same right across the river in georgia, where it's been raining nonstop all day. jeanne's little jerk to the left overnight kept the rainshield over georgia, with the main feeder bypassing during the nighttime and the dry slot knocking down the development of isolated supercells by day.. all in all not bad. wish i could share my fortune with some of you.
for the coming days, summed basin forecast:
jeanne weakens and tracks off shore near nc/va border.. uncertainty to track thereafter as it may either decouple under shear or baroclinically deepen and become extratropical. wouldn't be surprised if it managed another loop (but seriously doubt it will come back this way).
lisa working its way nnw through the open atlantic, not going to bother anyone. may interact with departing jeanne. lisa has been a useful system.. explained below.
scott hinted at the sw caribbean.. models picking up on disturbed weather there.. pattern-induced stuff. just a bogie on the long range scan at this point, as the timing and amplitude of the shortwave in the east will dictate its potency.
lisa has been effectively blunting the westward progess of atlantic waves, absorbing their energy.. and the upper trough to the east is keeping anything from developing east of 40w. from here on in anything out there will form closer to the islands.
soi positive but tilting back to negative, watch for waves to bulk up when it does. MJO status flaky.. it hasn't been the driving influence this season, but may be a minor inhibiting factor for the next week or two.
HF 1825z27september


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Keith234
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Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #32995 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:46 PM

You better watch out for some tornadoic activity, especially with that tounge of dry air approaching.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Keith234
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Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #32997 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:52 PM

The SW Carribbean is starting to wake up, that area of low pressure over Central to South America is also acting up. Mainly because the water temps are decreasing in the Eastern Pacific ocean causing a ridge to build over the eastern pacific and a trough to build over central america. Almost like a mini-ITCZ, in terms of the convergence. Anyway, the water temps are mighty warm, the ULL is backing SW, the ridge is going to build back after Jeanne leaves the picture and create an area of excellent outflow. This could be a very strong storm, we'll have to see but the area is notorious for these things!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Tornadoic Activity [Re: Keith234]
      #32998 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:53 PM

Jeanne has actually produced very few tornadoes, much fewer than Ivan & Frances; while the threat is still very real and must be monitored, folks down there have been very lucky...so far as tornadoes are concerned...

Regarding the tongue of dry air approaching and now passing HF, I would think that would LESSEN the chance for severe weather, rather than enhance it...but I could be wrong there.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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kyop
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Skeetobytes track map [Re: MikeC]
      #32999 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:58 PM

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.


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Keith234
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Re: Tornadoic Activity [Re: LI Phil]
      #33000 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:59 PM

LI phil,

I believe that the mid-level dry air enhances the mixing in the troposphere. With the feeder bands and the abundant low level moisture, it creates mixing also lowers the cloud base altitude. If you have looked at a severe weather threat index they always metion the presence of low level moisure. Supercells spin up very fast in hurricanes because most of the parameters for severe weather are there.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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BobVee
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33001 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:00 PM

Greater Montverde area checking in. Had a wild ride for awhile. From about 1-5 PM had winds at least 70mph with gusts up to 85mph. Lost power about 4PM and came back on at 10AM today. I sat on my back porch most of the day with just a gentle breeze on occasion. Most of the wind was blocked by a nearby ridge line and heavy trees. Mostly tree damage here again. Neighbors lost two pole barns and I have seen some roof damage to a few homes. Lake County schools are closed today and tomorrow. Minneola Elem. and Mascotte Elem. had structural damage. Do not know about others. I hope everyone else was blessed as we were and do not have to go through this again.

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Grasshopper
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Re: less to the north [Re: Keith234]
      #33003 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:29 PM

I have been living in Tampa (Pinellas actually) for almost 7 years and this is amazing. Now I have heard that we are coming into a time where tampa is at its greatest threat. Is this true? I know very little about this "new" pattern. Do these storms form in the gulf? What kind of warning time am I looking at?

I am the MIS director of a local buisness and my employers look to me to keep them informed. They have a condo on the beach in Daytona so we have been pretty stressed around here. Everyone here has helped me so much in terms of "reading between the lines" and giving me insight to how these things work. Thank you so much and keep up the excellent work!

Matt

Edited by Grasshopper (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:31 PM)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33004 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:39 PM

Quote:

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.




Sorry man... not our data. Just our maps. The coordinates came from NHC advisories from the initial point for each new advisory. We have carefully plotted these to precisely the coordinates given. We have found our maps to be more precise that the "stick figure" maps provided by NHC.

I have seen all kinds of maps with the paths crossing well south and some completely out of Polk County as well.

Important to note that these are straight lines from point to point, and that is not how hurricanes move (except Charley apparently). Where these storms actually crossed was pretty darn close to the coordinates given by NHC. Given the size of the eye for each storm, being off a mile, or even 5 miles for that matter is irrelevant.

I'm sure you got hit, and deserve your purple hearts. I'm glad you are safe.

Edited to add:

Don't forget that these storms move in a curved path from coordinate to coordinate. For me to "guess" at the exact curve would in my mind be worse than using the straight line from point to point as shown in the maps. We all noticed that as Jeanne approached the coast, the curve in the path could account for approximately 10 to 20 miles difference in the point of landfal.l

Edited by SkeetoBite (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:53 PM)


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DMFischer
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Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33005 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:39 PM

Kyop,

Skeet's maps are based only on the maps put out by the NHC, not out of his own intuiting (is that a word?) where the storm will. As a graphic artist (still in school) I think Skeet's maps are awesome!

(opps Skeet said it first. Oh well, I still think they are awesome)

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


Edited by DMFischer (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:42 PM)


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LI Phil
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Tampa... [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33006 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:45 PM

Ah, grasshoppa, you have learn much...

The season from hell has given every resident of Florida pause and with good reason...it may not be over.

What I believe you are referring to is not that Tampa is under any additional "threats" per se, only that climatologically speaking...this time of the season poses a greater threat to the GOM than earlier in the season.

It has to do with the "home brew" storms that were alluded to earlier and which HanKFranK explained in nice detail. The Cape Verde (or CV) season is basically over, and that refers to the "long trackers" that begin their journey off the African coast (near the Cape Verde Islands) and eventually traverse the Atlantic, sometimes spinning the fish, sometimes threatening the Islands and Bermuda, and sometimes, like this year, making a US landfall. Well, that part of hurricane season is now over. That does not mean the hurricane season is over however.

Our threats now are primarily from storms which form or have their origins in the Caribbean of the GOM, the "home brew". Since any storm that forms in the GOM could make a "direct hit" on Tampa Bay (or anywhere in the basin), it might be considered to be under a higher threat than at the beginning of the season.

This has been one of the most extraordinary seasons ever, the first time in like 130 years a single state has been hit 4 times...it is possible that Florida could go 20 years without another direct hit...

Here's a link to Jim William's Hurricane City, with Tampa's tropical storm history...this should assuage your fears...

If I have not made myself clear or you still have questions, feel free, I'll try to get some real research, but I think I did OK for now.

Basically, the threat to Tampa now is the same as it would be in any given year...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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clyde w.
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33007 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:48 PM

Checking in from East Orlando. Never lost power (again) so spent much of my time sitting on the front porch watching the show, or sitting inside watching the games. Slept a lot too-don't know if lower pressures cause that, but man, I tend feel so tired when these things happen. Maybe cuz it always happens at night.

Anyway, damage was a little more extensive in my immediate neighborhood that with Frances. Lots of shingles gone, couple of windows and one front door blown in, but this neighborhood will get through. I'm thinking this has to be the end, right? Of course, we usually take a hit in October when the Carribean season starts--maybe we'll break that record of 4 in one season.. Hope not.


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Grasshopper
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Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33008 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:51 PM

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.


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Shortbus
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Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33009 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:53 PM

Quote:

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.




My parents actually have a house on the north side of Lake Buffum. We lost a roof, dock and most of the trees in Charley, paid an ungodly amount to put up a temporary "band-aid" on the roof for Frances and just said the heck with it for Jeanne. Apparently we made it through with just a downed tree this time around. I live in Valrico and we came through with just one small tree down and a few holes in the screen enclosure from neighbors shingles. Lots of high winds though. This is the first time I've posted but I've been lurking around for awhile, great site; I know there are a lot of us out there who really appreciate the info people post on here.


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LI Phil
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Re: Tampa... [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33010 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:57 PM

Quote:

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.




How much warning...that's hard to say...but if you stay on these boards, more time than the NHC gives you that's for sure...these guys can sniff trouble long before the public is given any notice...we got your back!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mozart
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Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33011 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:04 PM

HF:

Are you receiving much wind down there? We're just starting to really get some heavy rains up here, and there is virtually no wind with it. Forecast tonight differs from that, though.

Tornadoes in Sumter...again. Something about that inland town that hurricanes just love. (I think Hugo left his mark there and these guys are just coming by to pay their respects to him.)

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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DMFischer
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Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33012 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:12 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.




How much warning...that's hard to say...but if you stay on these boards, more time than the NHC gives you that's for sure...these guys can sniff trouble long before the public is given any notice...we got your back!




Phil is quite right! Had it not been for this board, I would not have had the supplies and such I needed for Charley BEFORE the stores around here went nuts. The night before Charely hit they were talking about it here and I listened well. They were right on! I became a believer in these guys and their noses to sniff out the trouble that brews with a storm track.
To all you guys around here, my kids thank you! I kept my sanity and the kids actually read the forums with me and we all felt like we knew more what to expect. We all thank you.

Dawn

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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Wingman51
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Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33013 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:20 PM

Hey LI
Thanks for all of the good work on the board - - The westerly trend discussed on this board proved out to be right and actually won me some respect. I really thought all of this stuff (CV Season) was over - but EGAD - Channel 9 is leading it's internet board with the headline - - New Tropical Wave coming off of Africa merits watching???? WHAT IS UP WITH THIS???? Any feedback?? Please tell me I won't have to paint my holiday decorations on my plywood??


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Keith234
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Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33014 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:21 PM

LI Phil/Grasshopper

Thankyou LI phil for anwsering, I have had a lot to do lately from sports, school, music, after school activities, etc and parties (I think you get the picture).

I think the threat for any landfalling hurricanes has remained the same, if not decreased a little. The water temp has been knocked down by Frances, Ivan, Charley, Jeanne and Bonnie there's not that much warm water around period. Except for the very eastern Gulf, and the SW Carribbean. Also the storm would most likely have to cross over Cuba to have an hit on Tampa which would most likely weaken it, unless there was some weird upper level air patterns going on. And to top it off, there's a shot of very cool air going to be coming down from Canada, might even bring some coldness to Florida. That would create a relatively weak jet stream but just enough that it would hinder any tropical storms that came to close to the USA. So in conclusion, you should still be watching the tropics but I wouldn't except another storm like Frances or Ivan to be barreling toward a part of Florida again, but you never know!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Tornado threat almost over... [Re: DMFischer]
      #33015 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:22 PM

From Henry Margusity, accuwx severe weather dude:

"We have had 3 reports of tornadoes so far today which increases the total number of tornadoes produce by Jeanne to 5. Frances and Ivan had produced well over a dozen tornadoes by the second day of landfall. Tropical systems are always tricky when it comes to tornadoes. What I have noticed this afternoon is the lack of strong winds on the VAD wind profiles. Both Ivan and Frances had very strong low and mid-level winds over 60 kts. Jeanne has winds less then 60 kts on the VAD wind and in most cases, winds are less then 30s kts through the depth of the atmosphere. Since the storm is weakening, we may see only a few tornadoes between the rest of this afternoon and tomorrow.

Again the place under the highest threat for tornadoes this afternoon will be across northeast South Carolina."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33017 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:33 PM

Quote:

Hey LI
Thanks for all of the good work on the board - - The westerly trend discussed on this board proved out to be right and actually won me some respect. I really thought all of this stuff (CV Season) was over - but EGAD - Channel 9 is leading it's internet board with the headline - - New Tropical Wave coming off of Africa merits watching???? WHAT IS UP WITH THIS???? Any feedback?? Please tell me I won't have to paint my holiday decorations on my plywood??




The way the season from hell is progressing EVERY wave merits watching...

Here's the wave Wingman pointed out from the Channel 9 discussion...you can also see Little Lisa spinning her way up north and out of our hair...as I said earlier, the only thing that bears watching with her is whether she can make it to hurricane strength...affecting the numbers for the season only.

Way to early to make any kind of a call...but you can be assured we'll keep on top of it. It would be two weeks away from any US mischief anyway.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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AngB
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33018 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:36 PM

South Merritt Island checking in....We had a few shingles missing and a water leak that will be a bear to track down...will be caulking and sealing everything in sight. Only lost power for a day. Didn't notice too many trees down...Frances must have taken care of the weak ones. There does seem to be more houses with roof damage this time. A lot more snapped power poles also.

We were going to stay but bailed when the weather guys were suggesting possible CAT IV. We stayed in a hotel by Disney and ended up bailing water for several hours that was coming in the ac vents.
We've been pretty fortunate. Really feel for the guys further south that took a beating twice.


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Keith234
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Re: African Wave... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33019 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:38 PM

I don't think much of that wave, it's convection was confined to the ITCZ and has to face some serious shear. Just a note, you can see the ULL to the north of it spining counter-clockwise. It looks as though it's taking the north part of the wave and wrapping it up in it's circulation.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: AngB]
      #33020 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:41 PM

>>> We had a few shingles missing and a water leak that will be a bear to track down

A bear watch has been issued.

(Sorry, that's gonna be no fun...)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Housekeeping item [Re: LI Phil]
      #33021 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:42 PM

Couple things that will likely help when posting activity increases.

Try to include a link to the outside source (sat pic, maps, etc.) that you have a question or comment on so others don't have to dig for it after you make your post. The old timers know where to get this data, but newer weather watchers may not and they want to learn too!

When you notice a new advisory is out, try including a link to the source you are referencing. Different sources seem to update faster than others. Also, cutting and pasting the entire advisory really adds to the (physical) length of the thread.

Have fun and don't take yourself or the comments of others too seriously. Tensions run high when a monster is at your door.

Hope this helps.


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Keith234
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Re: Tornado threat almost over... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33022 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:43 PM

I think that this system will become very elongated as the high pushes on it from the West as shown by some of the models. I mean it could happen but sometimes the models just associate a weaker system with an elongated body this time I think they're right. If this thing stays compact and has a well defined structure, the storm could become very strong off the coast of Delmarva peninsula as it makes the transition to extra-tropical. We'll see.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Wingman51
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Re: African Wave... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33023 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:49 PM

Thanks for the update - and the follow-up comments - pray that the shear cut that puppy to shreads - - A really STUPID question - - why does the season shift from a CV focus to a Carribean, GOM focus?? is it purely water Tems or is there something else involved???

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AngB
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33025 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:58 PM

Quote:

A bear watch has been issued.




Very funny. LOL

I sure hope and pray that this will end the landfalling hurricane season.
It was evident from the lack of traffic on the evacuation routes that many people stayed. I think people stayed for various reasons:.... it was a combination of weariness....or
thinking that since their homes survived the last one without too much damage this one would be ok too....or that their houses could be damaged more if they aren't there to fix damage as it happens. Who knows?


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LI Phil
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33026 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:02 PM

Quote:

Thanks for the update - and the follow-up comments - pray that the shear cut that puppy to shreads - - A really STUPID question - - why does the season shift from a CV focus to a Carribean, GOM focus?? is it purely water Tems or is there something else involved???




Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before or upon reaching the Caribbean. Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October.

Gulf storms are much different than Cape Verde storms. For one thing, they have a lot less distance to travel before they make landfall. Another is that they mainly threaten only the Gulf coast.

Gulf storms are also notable for their maddening unpredictability in terms of where they're headed. Often they meander around aimlessly, wreaking havoc with everyone's work schedules. Though late season storms tend to be weaker, that is not always the case. Let's not forget Opal in 1995 which reached Cat 4 strength before going ashore as a Cat 3 and causing great damage in the Florida panhandle.

Here is an excellent, if old, short article on the subject...actually it addresses hurricane season as a whole, but it is certainly apt for this discussion.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Keith234
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33027 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:03 PM

It's mainly because the African Wave Train dies off because the ITCZ starts to move at an area with not enough coriolis effect to spin the storms ( the equator). That's why storms don't form in the winter, at least one of the reasons. If you have any other questions ask me!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Wingman51
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Keith234]
      #33028 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:11 PM

Thanks LI and Keith
The posting on this board do ot replace the NOAA postings, but the information, theory and discussion do augment what we see on the NOAA posts and on TV. I feel like a neophyte in the weathe department, but a vetern at surviving hurricanes - we got hammered 3 times this year - By watching this board, and printing Skeets maps, I feel more prepared and less reactionary than I have during any other season in the past. thanks to all of the mods and the great minds who post here. We will survive!!!


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MrSpock
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33029 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:22 PM

The reasons I believe the CV season starts later and ends quicker are due to 2 main reasons:
1. Water temps are at their peak then start to decrease after now. Remember, the eastern side of an ocean basin has cooler water temps farther south than the western side due to the upper level ridge of high pressure over the cooler waters that creates a wind flow conducive to upwelling. That's why the waters off of California are colder in August than NJ usually.
2. Upper level patterns start to change, with the jet stream making its return, and either systems get turned NW quickly, or get sheared apart. Later on, the ITCZ does move farther south.

There may be others, but I think those are the 2 biggies.


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Keith234
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Re: African Wave... [Re: MrSpock]
      #33030 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:39 PM

The jet stream has some effect to, Wingman. It creates wind shear which avidly affects the growth and development of the storms. The jet stream forms as a result of increased temp differential over the tropics and the mid-latitudes. The jet stream is more noticeable in the winter because the temp differential is greater then in the summer. That's why storms that reach high-level's of the troposphere (aka Hurricanes) favor the summer time in the Atlantic basin.

Also to explain what Mr.Spock said about the water currents. The pacific high spins clockwise since the oreintation of the high, the high's winds drive cool sout pacific ocean water up to the Califoria Coast, that's why there water temp is so cold. It's the exact opposite in the atlantic basin as deep warm tropical water is brought forth from the tropics.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Mon Sep 27 2004 05:41 PM)


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Staggy
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Re: African Wave... [Re: MrSpock]
      #33031 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:41 PM

Quote:

... and either systems get turned NW quickly




Shouldn't that be NE?


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LI Phil
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Ocean currents [Re: Keith234]
      #33032 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:46 PM

Just to further add to what Mr. Spock & Keith said about the currents, this link both explains it and includes a graphic showing the world's currents and what direction they flow...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Keith234
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Staggy]
      #33033 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:49 PM

It's generally first NW then N, then NNE as it steers the edge of the Azores high.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Staggy
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Keith234]
      #33034 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:54 PM

Quote:

It's generally first NW then N, then NNE as it steers the edge of the Azores high.




Ah, I see. Thx.


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Keith234
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Re: Ocean currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #33035 - Mon Sep 27 2004 05:54 PM

That's a really good link, generally the ocean currents follow the prevailing wind currents. As the link shows, El nino changes the overall direction of these wind currents by changing the normal pressure gradients.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Ocala
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Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33037 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:26 PM

Just catching up on the posts. Know this discussion has passed, but also wanted to lend my thank you to all on the site. By reading the discussions on Friday, while the NHC still had her tracking up the east coast, everyone here was saying it was probably going further west. After reading all you had to say, I called my sister in Tampa and told her to start paying attention. As of Friday afternoon, Tampa in general was not too concerned about Jeanne. Thanks for all the work. The heads up gave my sister time to prepare.

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Staggy
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Re: Gainesville Pics [Re: Keith234]
      #33038 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:28 PM

How would you like to be watching football and hear a loud bang and end up with this? Everyone was OK although my buddy has a new respect for tropical storms.

pic #1
pic #2


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KC
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Re: Tampa... [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33039 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:30 PM

Quote:

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.




Regarding real estate dropping and irratonal selling - just sending as an FYI that Punta Gorda real estate has gone UP, not down, according to the local news. Florida is a very strange market!


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Shalafi
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33040 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:31 PM

Thank you God! I had an absolutely miserable last few days, however the storm wasn't so bad
Lost power 2am Sunday. Prior to power going out we setup the generator, ran the cords, had the ice in the coolers, flashlights in various locations as well as candles and battiers easily accessible. Power went out, we got the generator running and we began the fun. I didn't want my sister to have to get up and lift the heavy gas can and stuff every hour (small generator) so I said I'd do it. I had to fiddle with my dads machines everytime it ran out of gas anyway so why not me?
Once house got too hot we opened the windows and the "breeze" from the cane felt great! I'm a hot (read "boiling") blooded guy so I'm sweating in anything above 75ish. I didn't get to wash my clothes beforehand..blah blah..long story short, little sleep, lots of dealing with my dad (which drives me to drinkin...which I did a bit of as well) and 24/7 sweaty/smelly clothes leads to a VERY not happy me.
Power at my sisters house came on for 30 seconds Sunday afternoon then off....on for another minute a few hours later, then off...finally on for good today at maybe 10 something...
We had power even in Deltona which is a HUGE shocker considering the fierce bands that went over us and we're usually last. I was expecting the worst cane yet, it was in fact the best for us. I could babble on for awhile but I'll spare y'all...
I can't thank you guys enough for being you. Tomorrow I go to work and donate blood, then I think I'll donate to the Red Cross...I've been getting impressed to do so....

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Ocala
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Ocala Pics [Re: Staggy]
      #33041 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:32 PM Attachment (1119 downloads)

The boss's garage. He saw the tree start to go and managed to get his two cars about before it hit.

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Wingman51
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Re: Ocean currents [Re: Keith234]
      #33042 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:32 PM

OK, so let's see if I understand - - As the angle of the earth changes in relation to the tilt of it's axis, the prevailing winds and SSTs change, and the storms stop being generated by waves from Africa, and begin to be spawned in the GOM and the CArribean. I thank all of you for being understanding with those of us (old Farts) who still believe if the dogs hair is hot, it's sunny and if the dogs hair is wet, its raining. Thank God we in Florida don't have to deal with the dogs hair if its frozen. Have a Blessed day and Week.
Chuck


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Keith234
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Re: Ocean currents [Re: Wingman51]
      #33043 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:40 PM

The angle of the Earth, which is 23.5 degree's always does not change, it simply moves in it's orbit and becomes orientated differentely. Also, the Earth is at perigee during winter and the relation or the distance from the sun has nothing to do with the season, it has to do with the angle of insolation (incoming solar radiation). The way the earth is orientated effects how sunlight is recieved at the earth's surface, generally the greater the angle the more insolation recieved, this indirectly effects the placement of the ITCZ which is the convergence zone that spawns tropical waves, SST's and many more things.
well, that's not exactly right. the milkanovitch cycle and a more or less elliptical path around the sun affect the global heat budget to a large degree over their thousands of years worth of phase. the degree of dynamism and systemic redundancy, built in stability regimes.. make the world a good bit more robust and able to withstand change than a lot of global warming pundits would make mention of. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 28 2004 11:48 PM)


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Staggy
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Re: Cartoon [Re: Staggy]
      #33044 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:53 PM Attachment (1108 downloads)

Anyone else feel like this? (see attached)

Edited by Staggy (Mon Sep 27 2004 06:54 PM)


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Ocala
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Re: Cartoon [Re: Staggy]
      #33045 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:55 PM

Quote:

Anyone else feel like this? (see attached)




Might be blind, but don't see attachment!


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Wingman51
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Re: Ocean currents [Re: Keith234]
      #33046 - Mon Sep 27 2004 06:56 PM

Keith
You said what I meant - but much more eloquently - thanks, and I'm sure I'll come back with many other perplexing questions. Do you have any additional thoughts about the wave currently exiting the African coast? I haven't seen it since earlier this afternoon and I think at that point you felt that shear would cut it to ribbons?
Chuck


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Staggy
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Re: Cartoon [Re: Ocala]
      #33047 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Anyone else feel like this? (see attached)




Might be blind, but don't see attachment!




doh! look again, I promise, its there now.


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FreakedInFlorida
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Reporting from St. Lucie County [Re: Keith234]
      #33048 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:03 PM

Well we made it back in one piece and surprisingly the power was restored 1 day after the storm. It pays I guess to live in a commercial area. We didn't get any damage to our house. In fact, nothing really looked changed at all, except a couple small branches from the same tree that dropped several large ones during Frances. We did decide to ride this out in a shelter though, because at Cat 3 or a possible 4 that they were reporting Saturday morning was enough to convince us to go. Luckily it seems it was a Cat 3 and even though we got the eye, didn't hit us as hard as it could have. The beach though from what the news is saying is a mess, many damaged homes, beyond just roof repair. North Hutchinson Island is still not letting residents on the island because of many downed concrete power poles that just smashed in half and are laying across A1A. Damage on the mainland seem to be less intense, and seemed to hit places that were already damaged from Frances. There did seem to be a lot more flooding this time. 2 blocks down from us, the flood waters were at 1-2 feet. Fortunately we are a bit west of the flood zone, so our yard had a couple puddles, but nothing like that.

Anyway, that's about all there is to say. Again I thank you for this forum. Helped a lot in determining the storm and to keep my thoughts on other things. The only thing was I wish I had it in the shelter. The news media really blows this stuff up.


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FreakedInFlorida
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Re: Cartoon [Re: Staggy]
      #33049 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:11 PM

LOL, that is a hilarious cartoon and definitely one that can relate.

A couple shelter things:
One guy bought his whole house to the shelter and carried it in by the cartload. I was shocked they let him bring all that stuff, but they did.

During the storm, someone looked out and saw that we'd left our car door open enough for the light to be on inside. Afraid it will drain the battery, my dad convinced one of the police to let him go out during the eye and close it. Was kinda brave, but somewhat stupid too. I would have just got a jump in the morning, but that's my father.

35 cars got damaged from gravel pebbles that were on the roof of the shelter. Windows were busted out or shattered. 27 cars in that same shelter got damaged during Frances, including ours. We didn't get hit the second time around though.

Two hours after the official end to the storm, we were told we'd have to go home or move to a new shelter, so we packed up and went home. The streets were messy, no traffic lights and lots of flooding and blocked roads. Kinda wish they'd let us stay like they did last time, but made it home alright. We didn't move to a new shelter because we had a car and we'd brought 3 lawn chairs and supplies. Not worth loading the car and unloading it at that point.

Doing the happy dance that there is nothing in the tropics to get us for now. Can take all the break we can get.


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Ricreig
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33050 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:19 PM

Ok, thanks to a generator, and by the grace of God, we're back, sort of. Unfortunately, for others of my neighbors, Jeanne apparantly changed track and went unexpectedly much further south and West than the NHC forecast had predicted (as of when I had to pulll the plug and evacuate). This meant that I, in East Orlando got a maximum of 78mph and my trailer, having already withstood both Frances and Charley (eye of Charley), stood up to the test again. More of my screen porch is missing, but no broken windows and only a few new dents in the trailer extermal metal.

I was so sleepy and tired after moving all but my furnature and major appliances to my boss's garage that both me and Tigger, my cat, felll asleep and missed al but the very worst of the wind and rain. My boss's home lost power about 3:20 am with a rather brilliant and loud flash of exploding transformers down the street a bit. Thus, the generator I brought over from the trailer has served us well once we fighred out that it has TWO oil sumps, both of which have a ignition cut-off switch. We filled one, the one we could see, but the other one, hidden on the reverse side eluded us during the wind and rain for about an hour. Discovering our error got the generator up, the refrig and a light and my UPS's alive so we could follow the storm until DSL went down and the phone dead a bit after power was lost.

They and I are among the 110,000 Frogress Energy customers in Orange county without power but they are making headway. No telling when trailer parks will get power and during Frances, my boss was among 4 homes in the entire subdivision apparantly on a little used circuit feeding a church and a few houses....low priority, 8 days later last time, they got around to it.

My camping gear (camp stove, etc) has come in handy and his fience cooked up all of the meat that had thawed before we figured out the generator and we had a feast. Now, with the fridge empty, and stomach full, at least we could make ice....that is until we got a 'don't use the toilets or drink water because the '[lift station' is without power for the area.....

Oh, well, we are unhurt, the cat has stopped shreiking in fear from the strange noises and scents, I've rested the old bod, and an IHOP was open today and I again have a full stomach.

To all of you that PM'ed me or wished me luck here in the forum, THANK YOU. To those we were able to help and sent me a thank you, you're welcome. To this forum, Ed, Mike and the rest of the gang, thanks for being here when we all needed you. Skeeter, thanks for the maps but I told you to NOT move the line so far West that it would endanger you. You just don't listen apparantly

Please, pray for those caught at ground zero, twice within 5 miles of each other and almost to the hour, 3 weeks apart. If it wasn't lost the first time, the second time got much of what was left. To Polk county, you got all 3 storms eye tracks. Thankfully, it was "Only" a CAT-I-II storm when it got to you that far inland, but it still beat up on you repeatedly. Thankfully, I don't think the panhandle got much, if anything from Jeanne? TLH I guess got it as a TS. Ocala and Gaiinsville apparantly were pretty surprised by the storm and JAX was spared all but a breeze as far as I know. I think this year, all, and I mean all of the Florida coast line communities from Key west to Jax, from the Keys to the Ala/Fla line and all points between had some kind of storm affect, some catatstrophic, some with minimal damage but all affected in some way. Almost all inland counties saw TS or hurricane force winds or flooding rains this past 6 weeks and the St Johns river has flooded so bad that major highways will be closed for many months because nearly half of the highway is now part of the river bank, eaten away and washed down stream. Only 1 lane is passable and they closed that until they can stabilize the shore and bring in (several thousand estimated) dump trucks worth of fill dirt to rebuild the missisng lanes and right of way. It's been a trip for all of us in Florida, and many of our neighbors to the north have had major impact because of the rain, some of which is still falling.

At least it is quiet now!!!

More later but I've got to go sit in a gas line and get a couple lof cans of gas for the generator....NEED THOSE FANS to work tonight

Richard (BTFM) Creighton
East Orlando

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
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Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #33051 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:20 PM

I don't have the time or energy to go back through all of Saturday's posts, but I am wondering who hasn't yet checked back in.

I see richard (ricreig) is now making a new reply, but I know that at a minimum, Colleen, Ed & WXMAN RICHIE have yet to check back in.

I need you guys to figure out who still hasn't posted since the storm hit so we can begin to worry about them.

Thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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COgal
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33055 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:45 PM

I posted yesterday but under a different name. Lost power early am and was unable to locate a radio station signal. Cell phone was not working. No generator. I was unaware the track had shifted. I suppose I had an idea when the winds didn't let up around the time I thought they were supposed to. No damage to house only minimal tree branches down and power out for 30 hours. Down the street the Citgo gas station was totaled. Haven't ventured further in Lake County to see what happened yet.
Stayed in Eustis today and delivered water/supplies to folks out here that I knew were alone during the storm and without power.
Tomorrow am going to Lady Lake to help a few elderly folks get their yards cleaned up.
Spending the rest of the week with the "Hands On Orlando" crew helping hand out water and cleaning up debris.


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kelcot
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33056 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:46 PM

Phil, I PMed Colleen yesterday, but I still haven't heard from her.

I finally spoke to my mom in Vero. There were 2 tornados by her house that pulled up 4 palm trees unfortunately 2 of the 4 landed on her house. The good news is that palm trees usuially aren't that heavy so they were blown back off. She has numerous leaks in her ceiling. The entire roof is going to need replacing. She has to replace ALL of her carpeting and paneling. And they won't know about structural damage until they take the roof off.

My aunt and uncle's house is non-salvagable. (A pine tree fell on it during Frances) He can't find the swimming pool that was once in his yard. (They also have a lake in their yard, so the water from the lake and all of the debris covered it entirely.)

My cousin's roof was lifted off and set back down during Frances. Jeanne kind of pushed it off the side a bit so it sort of looks like how a pimp wears his hat. (Sorry, it's the only analigy I could think of.) Needless to say, their home is more than likely unsalvagable.

My grandparents (they live next door to my aunt & uncle) escaped with only a few shingles missing.

But, all in all, everyone is safe.

--------------------
Kelly


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LI Phil
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: kelcot]
      #33057 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:51 PM

Yeah, Kelly, I PMed her too...no response...

Skeeter drove through her area and reports that all power is out, so I can only hope that is what is keeping her from posting. I spoke with WXMAN RICHIE via telephone and he is OK. Highest recorded gust at that time was 87 mph, and a lowest pressure of 28.93.

Ed's been through his fair share of these bad boys, and being a met for 50+ years, you had to know he and Bettye were more than prepared...he'll probably be back when his power is restored.

Just glad you are unharmed...possessions can be replaced but lives cannot...that's the most important thing!

When I heard the latest reports that Jeanne "only" killed six in Florida my heart sank but it was in a way comforting because it could have been much worse.

Thanks for checking back in!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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CatInOrlando
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33058 - Mon Sep 27 2004 07:52 PM

I know that I am nowhere near a "regular" yet, still wanted to check in and say thanks to all of you though. I am in Orlando about 1 mile from SeaWorld...we heard winds almost all day Sunday, the worst was in the early morning 7-8ish...the wind shoook the house and rattled the windows for long periods of time. But even with all the sound and fury, we escaped with no damage, and no power outage from Jeanne. Cable is down (since 10something am Sunday), so no internet at home....and work has been crazy mad today, just getting to a point now where I could catch up on posts and send a shout out.

My heart goes out to all of those dealing with much worse experiences than ours.

And people really REALLY dont know how to 4way stop at light out intersections! Almost got ran over, and I am an exceptionally careful driver.

The friends from the mobile home that stayed here with us are heading home today to check how they did. And the student is staying with us until tomorrow morning. So all our little ducks are safe and sound. Wishing the best to everyone else, I will check back in periodically as I get a chance at work. Last time the cable at home was out for almost a week.

Thanks for being here, thanks for listening. I am constantly learning so much here!


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #33059 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:09 PM

Hi everyone. I was in the Georgia Mountains while Jeanne was hitting home in Altamonte Springs, Fl.
I drove down I-75 in Torpical Storm/depression Jeanne today.
Rained pretty hard and blowing in Macon, Ga and rained all thw way down until Valdosta.
Once in Florida, the skies got progresssively brighter the nearer I got to Central Florida.
The only real damage I noticed were to billboards and street signs, a few trees knocked over.
Other than that, my area looks great. Nice and clean. Kind of like Jeanne cleaned up the place.
IPower is on, cable is on. Living inland sure is lots safer than on the coast.

Lets all hope and pray that this is it for Florida this hurricane season.
We are all definately over it.

By the way, gas stations are empty.


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MrSpock
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Re: African Wave... [Re: Staggy]
      #33060 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:24 PM

yes, eventually NE, but they turn NW quickly instead of moving W or WNW for days like some of the big CV systems.
That also happens earlier in the season when a CV system develops farther north than usual.

duh, as I read further, I noticed Keith answered-sorry, was reading them in order.

Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 27 2004 08:26 PM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33061 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:25 PM

I haven't heard from richisurf, and we PM'd right before the storm hit.

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FreakedInFlorida
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33062 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:26 PM

Phil,
According to the latest estimates, there are 2.6 million now without power, with estimates now of more than 3 weeks for Jeanne's recovery, mainly due to workers still trying to restore power for Ivan's victims. Could be why you haven't heard from them. I do hope all are safe though.


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Keith234
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: FreakedInFlorida]
      #33063 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:28 PM

Last night, when watching the weather channel they said 8 million people were without power.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Who is still without power? [Re: Keith234]
      #33064 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:38 PM

Keith,

I think that's way high...2 million maybe...the state has a skosh over 17 million residents, I doubt that almost half are without power.

BTW, while trying to get info on who is still without power, I came across this website

http://www.palmbayflorida.org/

This may assist anyone in that affected area who DOES have power and needs quick info...Mike, feel free to add this to the links on the front page...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: Ocean currents [Re: Wingman51]
      #33065 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:38 PM

Well, not much it seems as though the CV season is ending rather rapidly. I would be more concerned per se about the troughiness by Colombia, south and central america. These short-wave trough's propogate northward into the SW Caribbean and can become very strong; Mitch is a good example.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998H/index.html

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Mon Sep 27 2004 08:39 PM)


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dolphinscry
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: CatInOrlando]
      #33066 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:43 PM

...And although I am also nowhere near a regular poster, I have certainly been a regular reader here, and would never had been as prepared if I werent!
So, I am gonna check in anyway,
I posted under dolphinscry2 (was it Sun.am?) anyway, should have kept my big mouth shut, cuz no sooner did I submit my post than *POP*!!!
Electric went out.
I was in Leesburg, and Jeanne was definatley worse in that area than Frances was.
So many more oaks came down, 2 on the neighbors house, who is disabled, so we took turns running over food, and checking for leaks.
The street was completley blocked by oaks, no way out, untill people braved the danger and started cutting some branches out of the way
(crazy, really)
It took 6 days after Frances to get power back over there...and this time the poles snapped, so who knows?...
I was lucky once again in Sumter co., alot of tree damage around, and some structure damage to local farms.
I am surrounded by a farm on 3 sides, and so there isnt much debris to fly our way.
Our power is on now too)
Hats off to all the crews who stayed through Jeanne (who were here already cuz of Frances) because they are still out there right now.
God Bless to all
Lori
Oxford, Fl

--------------------
"If you can't be a good example,
then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." -Catherine Aird


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Keith234
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33067 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:49 PM

Maybe it is high, the only reason I watch it is to see the people in bright blue fall type jackets get blown around and tell you how bad it is and where people shouldn't be, but yet they are right there watching the storm surge, wind and rain come in. I find that of the least importance, to see people get blown around. It does nothing for the viewer and to some it actually might make hurricanes look like fun (not me), personally I feel reproting weather is becoming more of a job that you have to look good, speak well and be an anchorman, I don't like it and as Clark would say "Science is a way of informing the public" not looking like a model.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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recmod
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Seminole County [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #33068 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:52 PM

Hi Everyone,
Went back to work today in Sanford. I had one harrowing moment on the drive where a large pine tree had fallen over the road....into the powerlines, which were the only thing holding the tree above the roadway (wish I had my camera with me then!) I stopped the car, and, after seeing a couple other cars driving under the tree, took the plunge myself.
Driving through major intersections with no traffic lights is real fun too. No one seems to respect the 4-way stop rule.

All in all, the area doesn't look too bad. It really seems that, by the third hurricane, most of the old, sick or shaky trees have been taken out. There IS a recurring story I heard all day from co-workers and customers. This storm caused MUCH more roof damage to homes than either of the previous hurricanes. I think that might be attributed to a snow-balling effect of previously unseen damage manifesting itself this time around. Already weakened roof structures are giving out.

On the subject of the remainder of this season: We need to remain vigilent during this lull in tropical activity the next week or so. I do not, in any way, feel that Jeanne is the last USA threat in 2004. Many recent years have had significant late-season storms: Lili- Oct. 2002 (Cat 4), Michelle- Nov. 2001 (Cat 4), Keith- Oct. 2000 (Cat 4), Irene- Oct. 1999 (Cat 2), Mitch- Oct. 1998 (Cat 5), Roxanne- Oct. 1995 (Cat 3) & Opal- Oct. 1995 (Cat 4)....not all these storms affected the USA, but I chose these because, at some point during their life, the NHC DID forecast a more threatening track that did not materialize.

--Lou


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LI Phil
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: Keith234]
      #33069 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:55 PM

>>> only reason I watch it is to see the people in bright blue fall type jackets get blown around and tell you how bad it is

Well, that's half the fun...as Mr. Spock reminds us, it's only a matter of time before someone take a 2x4 to the head on live TV...

Plus, I do enjoy Jim Cantore in the swimming goggles and Stephanie Abrams in her smurf suit [tm danielw] about to go airborne just so we can get a story!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: Seminole County [Re: recmod]
      #33070 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:03 PM

I think the track of the next storm, will be similar to that of Lili's. Well JB has time and time again preached to us, saying that the water temp. profile is almost exactly the same to that of 2002. These storms are controlled (indirectly) by that water temp. so if the water temp. profile is very similar to that of 2002 then the hurricane would take the same simliar path (that's my logic). These storms are always seem to impress me in some way.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Redbird
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33072 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:11 PM

Areas of Palm Bay,FL lost power as early as 5ish in the afternoon Saturday............NE section.

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Spike
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: Redbird]
      #33073 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:16 PM

I was north of the storm i lost it sunday morning at 6 00 and got it back around 7 00 pm

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52255225
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33075 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:19 PM

, it's only a matter of time before someone take a 2x4 to the head on live TV... funny you said that it happened! local station broadcasted it during the storm on the east coast. the guy took quite a whack from something very large and heavy. he went up in the air sideways and onto the ground. he was pretty shook up but o.k. disregard last post I accidentally submitted it to quick.

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rule
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: Keith234]
      #33077 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:30 PM

I'm back. Lost power at 4pm yesterday, went on generator power. Just got cable and power back 30 minutes ago.

Our worst winds came after the rain passed. It quit raining about 6pm here and then the winds increased from 8 to 10 pm. I think we had many 60 mph gusts. The cable went out at 11pm. Just as well, because I was watching the Bucs game and they stunk.

Overall, the damage is much less than from Frances, dispite stronger winds. Much less limbs and leaves down as well. Lots of trees down though. A big oak tree is blocking our road in front of the house. Funny, we had some maybe 30mph winds this afternoon and that's when it fell.

Here's to a tropical breather.


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MrSpock
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: 52255225]
      #33078 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:31 PM

sadly, I am afraid, it is going to take a serious injury before anything changes. I mean, really, I have not seen a "report from the eye" that ever enlightened me. The only thing that might be interesting is seeing the actual eye of the storm, but that would probably be done best with a time-lapsed camera if it could survive it.
I wonder if that guy that got hit will be in the middle of the next one......
Oh, and another thing.....don't you suppose they must carry some sort of insurance to cover the whole deal, and that it must be REALLY expensive?

Edited by MrSpock (Mon Sep 27 2004 09:31 PM)


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Mozart
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Update from the Upstate [Re: MrSpock]
      #33081 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:59 PM

3.5 inches of rain in my backyard in the last 3 hours. About 4.5 total. We're in a little gap in the storm now so I just let the dogs outside. The pond in my backyard has spilled over its bank. First time I've ever seen that done, although it may have happened with Ivan a few weeks ago. I couldn't get outside to check until after it had time to drain. My house is at least 6 feet above the water level, and the spillway sounds like it's running water away at full speed, so we don't anticipate any problems.

Problems are already starting up in the mountains from what I understand. French Broad River is already at flood stage, and they're still getting dumped on. That area is just north of the state line where SC/NC/GA all meet for anyone interested. The Saluda River has a flood stage of 9 feet, and it's expected to crease at 10 feet tomorrow morning. It's still pretty low at 4.5 feet as of 8 PM. If they're expecting that, I can't imagine how high the French Broad will end up. Keep those folks in mind as that area is very prone to not just flooding, but flash flooding.

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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LI Phil
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Re: Update from the Upstate [Re: Mozart]
      #33082 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:02 PM

Hey all,

I'm gonna call it a night...You guys have been great! We're all somehow in this togeher...

Y'all be safe!

Catch you tomorrow at work...!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
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Re: Update from the Upstate [Re: LI Phil]
      #33083 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:04 PM

you deserve a good night's sleep. Let's hope it stays slow for a while

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52255225
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Re: Who is still without power? [Re: MrSpock]
      #33086 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:41 PM

Yeah im sure its pretty costly. Last time during Francis also on the east coast, the t.v reporter storm chasers had an suv all painted up with their station info plus read "storm tracker" all over it that was destroyed by a tree fallling on it. it was trashed! they had to catch a ride with another affiliate back to Tampa. Crazy!

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Staggy
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Re: Interesting [Re: 52255225]
      #33087 - Mon Sep 27 2004 10:47 PM

From the 8:05P Tropical Weather Discussion:

FINALLY A QUIET NIGHT AT WORK WITH LISA FAR OUT TO SEA AND JEANNE NOW HPC'S RESPONSIBILITY. TO REFLECT ON HOW BUSY IT HAS BEEN SO FAR... THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE SEASON TO DATE UP UNTIL SEPT 27 EVER SEEN IN TERMS OF NOAA'S ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX. IN FACT...IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY...2004 WOULD BE THE 5TH MOST ACTIVE ACE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851...WITH 1950-1893-1995-1926 BEING THE TOP 4.


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MrSpock
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Re: Interesting [Re: Staggy]
      #33088 - Mon Sep 27 2004 11:32 PM

That is fascinating.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: rule]
      #33089 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:24 AM

I got an email from SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL. She and her cat are home in Deerfield Beach. No damage and doing fine. I see Ricreig has posted his update.
Colleen, Ed and who else? Have to send a CFHC SEAL team out if we have to.


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Clark
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: danielw]
      #33090 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:48 AM

Just to show you what these storms can do well away from the main landfall point...

I lost power for 26 hours here in Tallahassee.

We didn't have *that* much going on here, but it was still more than any of the other storms. Not much rain, mostly a bit of wind resulting in power outages, branches down, and the whole nine yards.

And FSU made the decision to open today. This morning was bad -- intersections out, people without power, debris in the roads, and a wind-driven rain. They could've opened in the afternoon and been just fine...but they're stubborn. A nice wait in the midst of it all for football tickets this morning, but alas -- what can you do?

With the power outage and Jeanne canceling a concert in Jacksonville I was to attend, which summarily messed up my entire weekend...this storm is going down on my crap list.

But, congrats are in order to JK & co. on the new youngun'.

And now....time for some rest.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Mozart
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: Clark]
      #33091 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:11 AM

Quote:

A nice wait in the midst of it all for football tickets this morning, but alas -- what can you do?




Schedule us again? Noone would bother to buy tickets since we all know how bad you'd kick our butts.

OT I know. But I need to vent about our pathetic team. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming....

It's raining again, the spillway is still overflowing, and the dogs still refuse to go outside.

Life is beautiful....

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: Clark]
      #33092 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:33 AM

Hi Guys just checking in. I came on line when I got home from work just to see who was around and what was going on, but was too tired to talk. We got hit pretty bad here in Polk County again, Lakeland specifically lost a lot of power. We were lucky at my house to be near a school and we have had power and cable restored early on. Our neighborhood was probably hit by a tornado in that the swath of damage appeared to have a tornado signature about it, We personally lost a lot of roof shingles, a major sized tree limb came down out of a fairly young tree. It fortunately did not hit anything except the ground. I spent 12 solid hours at work today and merely had time to call the insurance agency regarding the roof and will have to call them back this morning because the computer was backed up on taking claims reports. I have not heard anything from Colleen but they may either still be without power or internet service, or she may be just hurricaned out,. It is very stressful around here. Yesterday was difficult getting around town because of stop lights being out and everyone was stressed and angry and hungry with a lot of restaurants taking hits. I saw those maps and they are wild showing those hurricane paths., I wonder if anyone here can predict what our winter is going to be like in Florida? Is there any speculations as to how cold or warm, wet or dry this winter will be due to the hurricane activity?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Hurricanelover!
Unregistered




My tropical cyclone Report! [Re: Staggy]
      #33093 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:02 AM

Hurricane Frances just as it was going to make landfall...
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2004/al06.2004/0905/0130/col08deg.png
This shows that the max winds around hurricane Frances. Where right around the eyewall of the tropical cyclone. A area of 80 knot winds covered the better part of the eastern quad... With a max winds of 90 knots...The winds on the beach where around 70 knots at this time...Frances at landfall as below cat3 with winds of around 105 mph to 110 mph...Pressure 951 millibars...I'm going to say that by this data that Frances was a 90 to 95 knot tropical cyclone...


Hurricane Charley...A small cyclone with hurricane force winds. Outwards maybe 25 miles or less...On this chart shows that the max winds of Charley where 123 knots=125 knots...Charley was around 145 mph winds(Which was the offical Advisory)...This hurricane also had a extreamly tight pressure grad. With a eye of only 6 miles wide at one point...This hurricane was more packed, in with a tighter eye then hurricane Andrew(1992) or Iris(2001)...One hurricane to note is cyclone tracy, which was a very small tropical cyclone...Smaller then Charley...One fact about cyclones this small is that when Andrew hit Dade, county in 1992...The city of Miami, just 40 or so miles to the north was like Tampa, with Charley...That is pretty Amazing...Charley had a pressure of 941 millibars...While hurricane Andrew had 921 millibars...So I'm going to say for this cyclone that 145 mphs with upwards to 160 gust...
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2004/al03.2004/0813/1930/col08deg.png


Hurricane Ivan...This tropical cyclone was once one of the six most powerful cyclone to ever form any where around the Atlatnic basin...It had pressures as low as 910 milibars...As for landfall in the United states for Ivan...The tropical cyclone was moving around 10 to 14 mph through the Northern Gulf of Mexico...Which had "Tcp" levels that where very low because of Frances,Bonnie,Charley...My thinking is that when the tropical cyclone hit the eddy(Very warm deep fuel!) it got its act together very fast. That eddy had much deeper layer of warm water(Hurricane Gas!)...But once it hit the cool waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane got its feet kicked from under it...Remember that the northern Gulf of Mexico is still around 78 to 82 degrees. But when a slow moving tropical cyclone hits this there is no depth of the warm water. Which causes upwelling. If it was not for the other hurricanes Ivan "might" of made it to the coast as a upper end cat4? Of course this is all histroy now...A report of gust of 133 mph was found around a airforce base...Which is the strongest gust so far reported...The tropical cyclone lost its western eyewall as it was nearing the coast...So most of the winds where on the eastern quad...The surge was mostly caused from the hurricane being a cat5 for days...I'm going to say that this hurricane was around 105 knots...
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2004/al09.2004/0916/0730/col04deg.png

This report is unoffical!


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Megamike
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Riverview Fl (Tampa Bay Area)
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33094 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:06 AM

Been a reader of CFHC at the start of the season and have found this site more than informational.
Thanks to those that forecasted where Jeanne would go, we would not have been as ready if just relying on NHC and local news (except for Fox 13 (Tampa Bay).
Minor damage and power was out for 36 hours, lost all food in fridge. Small price to pay based on what I saw on the news for those on the east coast and in Polk County.

All the best all and thank you CFHC

Mike

--------------------
I know nothing and can prove it....Just ask me!


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: Mozart]
      #33095 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:23 AM

Lost power in north volusia county for around 30 hours. Lets hope it stays quiet for the rest of the year. I think Florida has had enough.

MaryAnn


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #33096 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:04 AM

We're just a couple of blocks north of LadyStorm (MaryAnn) on the mainland side of Ormond Beach in Volsuia County, but this time around we didn't lose power or cable. With all the flickering and brownouts, we were expecting it to go at any time. Very surprising.

Family in various parts of the state (including our college kid in Sarasota who finally checked in with us last night) came through with no major problems.

Our hearts go out to all the people who really saw the bad side of Jeanne. May this be Florida's last storm of the season.


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #33097 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:05 AM

Still out of power in DeBary (Deltona) area. Tree damage was a lot less (Not much left to fall). Glad school is back in today so the kiddies can have a break from this 3rd irritation. We were out 3 1/2 out of power with Charley, 5 with Francis and hopefully soon the power will come on. We had some additional shingle loss and part of our ceiling came down but we can handle that. It small in comparison to other areas.

Thanks to all of you for your support and information during all three of these hurricanes. Your input was/remains a tremendous asset to our family.

Edited by MadDog (Tue Sep 28 2004 08:07 AM)


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: MadDog]
      #33098 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:54 AM

*breathes deeply*

I'm back mostly. My wife and I gave the kids lots of benedryl (well, the 8 year-old and the 5 year-old) so they slept through the worst. Our 8 month-old slept well with my wife while I stood vigil. Since Frances had taken down our two tall trees, our basketball hoop and damaged one of my cars, I didn't think there was much left for Jeanne to do.

Fortunately, I was mostly right. The tarp on the car held and so even damaged, it stayed water-tight. Our other vehicles were fine as well. Our fence took a beating and water leaked in through our sliding glass door, but other than that, we're perfectly okay.

Hell, Frances had us without power for 12 days - Jeanne? only 40 hours. No cable (so I'm posting this from work) but all things being equal, in spite of the large amount of damage throughout Brevard county, my house again proved its mettle. Most surprising is the fact that again, we didn't lose even a single shingle (say that 5 times fast for maximum effect).

I'll only be lurking 8-4 until my cable is restored at home, but all is well.

I had some changes for the HD drinking game but at this point, I'm hoping that I can save those for the 2005 season. I realize this is a completely bizzare season unseen since 1886, but I swear, one more major storm hitting Florida this season might just have me considering relocating.

I just don't want to go through this again. I'm tired, and drained both physically and emotionally.

Hope those who haven't checked in are simply without power.


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Terri
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: tpratch]
      #33099 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:10 AM

Quote:

but I swear, one more major storm hitting Florida this season might just have me considering relocating. I just don't want to go through this again. I'm tired, and drained both physically and emotionally.

Hope those who haven't checked in are simply without power.



I don't know how some of you are handling all of this hurricane stress, not to mention the financial drain. My thoughts and prayers are with you all.

I'm worried about those that haven't checked in. I hope they're all okay. I'm not familiar with everyone's name, just those that post frequently. As best as I can see, we're missing Colleen and Ed. Has anyone heard from them?


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: tpratch]
      #33100 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:17 AM

Guess I'll check in too... The family rode it out west of Jupiter, and aside from missing shingles and a blown-down gate there was no damage to anybody's home. The marina I work at was damaged even further, and I must say it's downright depressing to see everything you've spent the last three weeks cleaning and repairing ruined overnight.

*shrug*

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: tpratch]
      #33101 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:27 AM

Quote:

I had some changes for the HD drinking game




tpratch. we added "complacent" to the game here. though my hubby said he thought he'd snap if he heard hunker down one more time.

We lost some branches and had some leaks from damage from previous storms but came through fine. I only got in one squirrel this storm so far. This was an adult in real bad shape.
A far cry from the thirty babies I got in from Charley when nesting season was in full swing.
Helen


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


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Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33102 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:56 AM

How did we do in the jacksonville dot com poll? I can't find the link on their website.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: mojorox]
      #33103 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:02 AM

Quote:



tpratch. we added "complacent" to the game here. though my hubby said he thought he'd snap if he heard hunker down one more time.




Yup, complacent and fatigue were the two last-minute additions here.

A few other modifications will make it in for the next storm


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Shalafi]
      #33107 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:02 AM

>>>How'd we do in the Poll...

I'm still trying to find that info, but here's a link to a story where CFHC was mentioned...

http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/092504/met_16736078.shtml

I too have been unable to track down the poll results...tried every conceivable search as well...last I looked it was NHC 38%, CFHC 31%, everyone else 10% or less.

If anyone can find the final poll results, please post them here...THANKS

Everyone be safe

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33109 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:22 AM

Not too happy about Rogers review of CFHC..I think he was full of his last name (Bull)..but at least it got it's own section. I'd love to see how we did in the poll tho. I'd be thrilled if we beat the NHC.
FYI, I'm more thrilled that that's all I have to worry about now

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Tampa Review [Re: Shalafi]
      #33110 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:31 AM

From someone who just started following hurricanes on the internet this season, I have found this site far more helpful than any of the others mentioned. And I have been to them all. While I occassionally check in with the others, this is the one that stays on my screen constantly. You guys do an EXCELLENT JOB.

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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33111 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:32 AM

I sent him an email asking for the results. Will see if he replies....
Helen


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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33112 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:42 AM

Quote:

>>>How'd we do in the Poll...

If anyone can find the final poll results, please post them here...THANKS




I sent them an e-mail requesting the results. Don't know if they'll respond. If they do I'll post results.


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33113 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:44 AM

Quote:

>>>How'd we do in the Poll...

I'm still trying to find that info, but here's a link to a story where CFHC was mentioned...

http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/092504/met_16736078.shtml

I too have been unable to track down the poll results...tried every conceivable search as well...last I looked it was NHC 38%, CFHC 31%, everyone else 10% or less.

If anyone can find the final poll results, please post them here...THANKS

Everyone be safe




After reading the article, I did a search thru the newspaper's online archives for results of the poll, to no avail. So I've emailed Roger Bull asking him for the results. I'll let you know if I hear from him.

It's interesting that Roger Bull completely missed out on what really addicts us to this website: the online community fostered by the excellently moderated and well organized discussion board.


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cmdebbie
Unregistered




Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: mojorox]
      #33114 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:46 AM

Our hubbies must be related. Mine also said that he could not take hearing "hunkered down" one more time, and quite personally I don't really blame them. However, what I can't take one more time is the actual act of "hunkering down."

We faired well here in Oviedo (Seminole County). Never lost power. Only lost it for 15 hours during Charley, and haven't lost it since. Charley was by far the worst for us!


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #33115 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:50 AM

Quote:

[It's interesting that Roger Bull completely missed out on what really addicts us to this website: the online community fostered by the excellently moderated and well organized discussion board.




You have absolutely nailed it. I have lived throught these hurricanes with you guys (albeit as a lurker) and there is a genuine community feeling here. It's nice in a touchy-feely kind of way.


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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: cmdebbie]
      #33116 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:00 PM

Well....we survived here in Citrus county as well...I was near Ocala with my parents for the storm..it sure got windy.
It was just a blessing that it didn't last as long as Frances did!
My mobile was fine..The pool cage wanted to blow away as did the front screen porch but my SO stayed behind and was there to secure it.
I only have one thing to say ....PLEASE, NO MORE!!!!!

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Who is still unaccounted for? [Re: Kruz]
      #33117 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:14 PM

Well, came back to Palm Bay yesterday to find my power ON!! Lost all my fencing (expected that) and had roof damage. The 4X4X8 fence posts were snapped off at ground level. All and all not too bad, with just some minor water stains in 2 bedrooms. ANybody have access to the GFS and NOGAPS??? I can't get in for some reason. I heard that some models are developing a system in the wetern Caribbean and heading it towards the Yucatan channel. Any truth to this? I can't get into the models. ANy help would be appreciated. Thanks.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
For Mr. Spock [Re: Kruz]
      #33118 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:19 PM

We knew it was only a matter of time...

Reporter Blown Away By Jeanne

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: mojorox]
      #33119 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:19 PM

Darn good idea..good job!

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #33120 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:27 PM

I searched too with the same results..I hope one of us gets an answer..

He clearly was looking at each site as a source for hurricane info only. However he said that CFHC just listed info from other sites. To me that means CFHC is a more concise and concentrated source for pertinant info. But that also shows me he didn't read anything posted. If he had he would have seen people that understand the weather and climatology explaining info to all of us who do not. He would have seen some of our members forecasting better than the NHC, he would have seen members needing info not readily available on the site and other members finding that info for them.
It stinks that he missed out on what CRHC really is, a community and if you wanna REALLY get touchy-feely, a family. With more info that you get on the news (especially if you follow the VIPIRcast system...yikes) and more personal care. He missed it, that's his problem.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: For Mr. Spock [Re: LI Phil]
      #33121 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:31 PM

I realize that ratings always play a part with the media and that sensationalism is one of the most popular means to obtain them but really...do we need to see someone getting blown all over the place to know it's windy?
Even a weather dolt like me knows that a hurricane = winds. I don't need to see it...I think they need to stop putting their reporters in danger and give us more pertinent info like Scott's forecasts

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



Edited by Shalafi (Tue Sep 28 2004 12:42 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Ed's OK! [Re: Shalafi]
      #33122 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:40 PM

I received this in my e-mail a few minutes ago:

"Bettye and I are fine. Lost about 3 dozen shingles and the wind peeled back the roof vent again but my son fixed it Sunday afternoon. Power was out 13 hours (it never went out until 0210) and telephone came back up yesterday afternoon. At 0216 I had wind out of the northeast at 50G72 and at 0414 it was east at 52G72mph. I have some trees NW through NE, so they may have blocked the true intensity, but during Hurricane Erin I had southeast at 75G104mph and this storm was not as bad as Erin. I did a damage assessment for Satellite Beach since their anemometer suffered a broken cable at 2AM. Here is a summary:
South Patrick Shores (including south PAFB): 70G90mph
Satellite Beach: probably hurricane force 75G100mph
Exceptions: Grant Avenue to Harwood Avenue: 80G105mph
Sandy Pointe to Lansing Island: 70G90mph
Melbourne Beach: 80G105mph, except for a small stretch evident along Riverside Drive: 85G110mph (could have been a mini-tornado)

North PAFB and Cocoa Beach probably had 65mph gusting to 80mph.

Damage in Satellite Beach was not as bad as Erin in 1995, however, I hate to say this, but I believe that the many new condos (which did rather well) probably lifted most of the stronger winds over the barrier island in Satellite Beach, thus reducing the extent of damage. OIA had a gust to 78mph and Melbourne recorded at gust to 105mph. Sebastian had a gust to 102mph and Vero 122mph.

I recorded tropical storm force winds from 0116 to 0700. Lowest pressure at the house was 28.98 at 0414. Storm total precipitation was 5.79 inches (0.67 on the 25th and 5.12 on the 26th). Both the lowest pressure and precip totals were very close to what was recorded at MLB. St. Elmo's Fire was observed starting at 0100 and almost continuous until 0700 - probably went longer, but at 0800 it was too light to detect - a rare event. Probably caused by the rapid ionization of the atmosphere when raindrops were split by the high wind. No thunder - just a glow, sometimes quite bright - that lasted up to three seconds and usually preceded the arrival of a high wind gust by about 15 to 20 seconds (downdraft forcing?? - I'll let some atmospheric scientist figure that one out).

Was Jeanne a hurricane in our immediate area? There are some tree damage indicators that say that she was - especially on Jon Rodes Blvd and on Harlock Road. I do not know what the highest sustained windspeed was at MLB, but with a gust to 105mph, I would suspect that the sustained was at least 75mph. I'm rather certain that Jeanne was a Cat I hurricane from Satellite Beach to Sebastian; Cat II in Vero, and Cat III at landfall in Stuart. If you know of any other recorded windspeeds, I'd be very much interested in hearing about them.
Cheers,
ED"

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kentucky Lurker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MadDog]
      #33123 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:49 PM

Quote:

Quote:

[It's interesting that Roger Bull completely missed out on what really addicts us to this website: the online community fostered by the excellently moderated and well organized discussion board.




You have absolutely nailed it. I have lived throught these hurricanes with you guys (albeit as a lurker) and there is a genuine community feeling here. It's nice in a touchy-feely kind of way.




I totally agree with this statement. This website is about information and has loads of it. However, though I wouldn't know a single one of you if you walked into my office, I have found myself praying specifically for some of you during these past weeks and for all of you at other times. This from my safe haven of Southern Kentucky. Messageboards can bring about a strange but neat kinship for one another. The social aspect or value of a website can't be ignored.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Ed's OK! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33124 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:53 PM

Phil, have you heard from Colleen yet?

--------------------
Kelly


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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Favorite Hurricane Website Poll Results [Re: Kentucky Lurker]
      #33126 - Tue Sep 28 2004 12:55 PM

Link to Poll Results

http://cgi.jacksonville.com/cgi-bin/polling.cgi?action=view&poll=1693

Ocala, THANK YOU so much for getting those results! WE ROCK!!!

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 28 2004 01:01 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ed's OK! [Re: kelcot]
      #33128 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:00 PM

>>> Phil, have you heard from Colleen yet?

Still have not heard from her or Richie, although I did call Richie after the height of the storm. Skeeter drove through Lakeland and they are all without power, so I imagine she'll be checking in when power is restored...however, until such time as she does check in, I am praying everything is OK. In a PM I gave her all my phone #s (but that PM was sent AFTER Jeanne had passed) so maybe I'll be getting a call in addition to a response...thanks for all you guys who expressed your concern for her.

EDIT & UPDATE: I see Colleen is online and replying to a private message as I type this, so one can assume she is OK!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 28 2004 01:06 PM)


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Favorite Hurricane Website Poll Results [Re: Ocala]
      #33130 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:07 PM

Good work! Thanx for posting this!

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Ed's OK! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33132 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:20 PM

I just got her PM too!!!!!

--------------------
Kelly


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
St. Elmo's Fire [Re: LI Phil]
      #33133 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:27 PM

St. Elmo's Fire was observed starting at 0100 and almost continuous until 0700 - probably went longer, but at 0800 it was too light to detect - a rare event.

When I read this I was fascinated with what St. Elmo's Fire could be, other than a movie, so I went hunting. I know I am not the only newbie here learning so I thought I would share what I found. It is really very fascinating reading.

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/stelmo.htm

http://www.physics.northwestern.edu/classes/2001Fall/Phyx135-2/17/whatisstelmosfire.html

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Ed's OK! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33135 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:54 PM

Whats that stuff coming off Cape Verde?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html


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Ronn
User


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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33138 - Tue Sep 28 2004 01:56 PM

I just heard from my aunt who lives in Ft. Pierce. After Frances blew out her windows and destroyed the screen porch, she boarded up for Jeanne. This saved the house from further damage and possibly from roof failure. Anyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area should at the very least have 3/4" plywood shutters.

I learned one very interesting piece of information. The other side of the street in my aunt's neighborhood fared much worse. One house is destroyed...the roof failed and one of the walls caved in. This is a concrete block house! Although I am sure they did not use shutters.

While I have not seen any of the damage firsthand, this seems to suggest a common pattern in major hurricanes--that the worst damage occurs from meso-vortices or "mini-swirls" (originally theorized by Ted Fujita) in the eye wall of hurricanes. This is the only explanation for the narrow "streaks" of considerably worse damage that we see in major hurricanes.

Just thought I'd share that information! I am praying that everyone will come out of this ok.

God Bless,
Ronn

Edited by Ronn (Tue Sep 28 2004 03:22 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Hey, All! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33139 - Tue Sep 28 2004 02:04 PM

We are all okay. A very scary 14 hours -- let me tell you, a storm moving at 12-14mph might seem like a freight train coming at you while still at sea, but when it hits, it's like being stuck on a major highway in a traffic jam as you wait for it to come to your area!
We were extremely lucky --- lost a few shingles off the roof, our street flooded, we lost our power for only 6 hours and our cable for 3 days, but that is nothing compared to what others around us suffered.
Pool screens in our neighborhood were ruined, water leaked through people's homes, trees (especially old oaks) snapped and went either on or through people's roofs. My husband took a lot of pictures and I am going to make an album so that all of you can see what a hurricane does "inland". God was surely watching over all of us because as much damage as we had in our area, I have not heard of a lot of deaths or injuries.
Now, I have an announcement to make: I have gotten over my fear of frogs. There was a baby frog on my lanai the other night who just sat there as the rain was pouring down, and although I attempted to use my voice to move him by yelling things like "JUMP, STUPID!" "DON'T JUST SIT THERE, USE YOUR HOPPERS!" I made no headway. I think that maybe he just had one too many raindrops hit him on the head. So, I went over and picked him up, wiped him off with a towel, and he kept me company for a while. He got his VERY LOUD VOICE back and at one point looked right at me and RIBBETED a thank you. I told him to keep it down, the neighbors were sleeping. My husband came out at one point and said, "Are you aware that there is a frog next to you on the table?" I told him that I had saved his life. He just shook his head and walked back inside.
Here's one thing: I will NEVER give mouth-to-frog recuscitation; don't care if he turns into a prince, with my luck it would be Prince Charles, not Prince William.
I am just hearing (and this is weather related, although not hurricane) but a 5.9 earthquake just hit near Parkfield, CA with at least 25 aftershocks. Parkfield is in between San Fransisco and Los Angeles. It was 11 miles deep, that is a good thing. The deeper it is, the better.
Now this is something that even Mark Geragross could dream up in his wildest dreams: court has been delayed in the Scott Peterson case because this earthquake was felt in Redwood City.
They cancelled football practice last night --- don't know if the coach did or the school did --- but unless we hear different, we are supposed to go tonight. They have a guard at the highschool who is not letting ANYONE in except for the ACTUAL high school football players who practice from maybe 3:30 to 5:30? I hope we don't have it tonight; maybe we won't since we will probably not have school the rest of the week. I think it is up to the school, and not the coaches.
Okay, I've yakked enough. Talk to ya soon!
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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WXMAN RICHIE
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I am back [Re: Colleen A.]
      #33144 - Tue Sep 28 2004 02:37 PM

Hi Everyone,

I am back and all is well considering a second storm here. I did receive more damage than from Frances. I lost a bunch of shingles from the roof, a few screens from the pool enclosure, many branches and shrubery, my satellite dish was knocked out of whack, and a leak in the roof. I also lost power for the last 2 1/2 days. But, all in all it could have been much worse considering it looked to me that Jeanne was on a direct hit at 26.5 N right up until a few hours before landfall. School is still out for a 9th day and a curfew is in effect at night. My stats. from Jeanne were a peak gust of 87 mph, lowest pressure of 28.93" and total rainfall of 4.69". I will add more later. I have even received a few emails from the NWS and NHC thanking me for my info. during the storm. My friend Thomas has sent me some interesting emails that I will share later too. He also is watching for the possibility for Mathew in the SW Caribbean to move toward the northern or eastern gulf states from New Orleans to Key West. I thought there was nothing else out there????

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Keith234
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Shalafi]
      #33145 - Tue Sep 28 2004 02:55 PM

The tropics are quiet for the time being. The wave exiting the CV area could become something if it surives the shear. The water temp. by the leeward islands is very warm in fact well above normal. It might be to early to say the CV season is over, there is usually a decline now and then an secondary peak in the beginning of October. The only problem is that season was driven by MJO and since that is at it's last string we might not see development.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Shalafi
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Keith234]
      #33147 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:03 PM

Quote:

The only problem is that season was driven by MJO and since that is at it's last string we might not see development.




Wow! I learn something new every day here...who knew seasons were effected by mojo..

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Shalafi]
      #33148 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:16 PM

>>> Wow! I learn something new every day here...who knew seasons were effected by mojo..

Yep, by Jim Morrison

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cane Watcher
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Re: St. Elmo's Fire [Re: DMFischer]
      #33149 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:16 PM

Thanks for answering my question. I was also wondering what St. Elmo's fire was? Although pretty dangerous, it would be pretty neat to actually see. I am glad to hear that all have made it through. Thanks to you all for your information, expertise, and patience with us who are not quite there as meterologists yet. Although I am a scientist, it is quite difficult to understand some of the terms and abbreviations without asking a stupid question... Thanks.
One last thing, a special thanks to Skeetobite for his maps, they are great. I sent them to my mom, who is not to internet savvy, and they helped her greatly..
Thanks..


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VandyBrad
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33150 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:20 PM

I thought this was interesting from www.orlandosentinel.com:

Frances/Jeanne Comparison

--------------------
Brad Shumbera

Edited by VandyBrad (Tue Sep 28 2004 03:23 PM)


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Ocala
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Keith234]
      #33152 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:32 PM

Quote:

It might be to early to say the CV season is over, there is usually a decline now and then an secondary peak in the beginning of October. The only problem is that season was driven by MJO and since that is at it's last string we might not see development.




I have figured out what CV is. Can you tell me what MJO is? Thanks for helping us learn.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Keith234]
      #33153 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:32 PM

Our local met from TB's ABC Action News said this last night:

"I'm only going to leave this 7 day forecast up for 20 seconds...so look quickly."

I thought that was extremely funny. Of course, I'm 3-punch drunk right now, so everything is funny.

--------------------
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Shalafi
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: VandyBrad]
      #33154 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:29 PM

What a crazy season. Landfall within 5 miles of each other. Thanx for the link...I hope mother nature was taken her midol because a bit tired of her at the moment..

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Shalafi
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Ocala]
      #33155 - Tue Sep 28 2004 03:32 PM

MJO info

I don't understand it, I just found the link for us to learn together.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Mr. (un)Happy
Unregistered




Re: Ed's OK! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33156 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:06 PM

Just got the phone back after the cable was cut the day BEFORE the storm.

Formerly Mr. UnHappy -now couldn't be happier. 3 Storms - no insurance no real damage (trees from Charlie fell onto neighbors house). Still have the debris from Charlie.

Jeanne caused 60-65 MPH winds all day until about 5 PM Sunday. Local weather was acting like the storm was over about 1 pm. Only the state forecaster mentioned that Sanford was still getting 65 MPH winds.

Live on the St. Johns - record high water but no flooding here - and doesn't look likely.

We kept power - AMAZING. Only thing I could figure was a new and better transformer because before - 3 blinks and you are out. This one blinked no less than 350 times, but hung in there - thankfully I have several UPS's. Anyone know anything about good vs. bad transformers?

Really missed this board, hated to rely on TV for info.

ALL IS WELL !!

Mr. (un)Happy


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Keith234
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Ocala]
      #33157 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:15 PM

The MJO is known as Madden-Juilian-ocsillation, it is simliar to that of the ENSO el nino or la nina. The MJO's are waves that form near the international datline and propogate eastward. These waves trigger very strong convectie thunderstorms, and because of this we can best identify them by looking at outgoing radiation maps (OLR). This whole cycle generally lasts from 30-60 days to 40-50 days it depends on many things. This effects hurricanes in-directly by changing wind patterns, SST's, amount of water vapor in certain areas and much much more. It appears to me from my study that are simliar to Kelvin waves which also forrm by the dateline but propogate poleward at faster speeds. It is very complicated in layman's terms. Here is a link on it!
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Shalafi
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Re: Ed's OK! [Re: Mr. (un)Happy]
      #33158 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:13 PM

Hey man! Glad to hear you're ok!

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Keith234
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Re: St. Elmo's Fire [Re: Cane Watcher]
      #33159 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:46 PM

I have witnessed many types of lighting, but not St. Elmo's. I would also like to find out information on it too!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Grasshopper
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Keith234]
      #33160 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:46 PM

How would this apply to us currently? Are we at the end of a cycle?

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Heather
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Re: Ed's OK! [Re: Mr. (un)Happy]
      #33161 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:51 PM

Hey everyone. Checking in from Highlands County. Got power back on last night-one of the lucky ones, most of the county doesn't. There is no rhyme or reason to the outages or the damage for that matter. Some places are with minimal damage and some places look like a bomb went off. My house is standing, still with damage from Charley, Frances and now Jeanne. I have several coworkers who are now homeless-mobile homes or concrete block, Jeanne didn't discriminate. Areas are just leveled. We all had a wild ride for well over 12 hours, about 6 of which were the most amazing power I've ever witnessed. As far as I can tell everyone survived. Progress Energy who has done an awesome job with all three storms has asked for patience as workers and supplies are in short supply with the whole state in a mess. Teams were being flown in from as far away California. We have one fully operational grocery store that never lost power, the rest are on generator and selling dry goods only. Gas is available-atleast for today, but takes a long time of waiting in line. That's about it right now. Glad you all are fine. Thank you so much for all of your education and experience-myself and family as well as friends are all better off because of what I learned here.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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Keith234
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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33162 - Tue Sep 28 2004 04:57 PM

Very good question. The whole cycle began in early August and is now coming to an end, as it is only a 40-50 day cycle inter-annual. It triggers certain features in the atmosphere to form, like gyres, pockets of moist or dry air and certain noticeable wind patterns. Sometimes a very strong MJO can trigger an ENSO or another oscillation. Everything is linked in some way in the atmosphere, we just have to find what that link is.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MrSpock
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Jeanne won't quit [Re: Keith234]
      #33163 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:10 PM

This is nothing like Fla, but the poor people in Northern Del. have seen Doppler estimates of >6" of rain today, with a Doppler-indicated tornado. That is one part of the area that certainly didn't need to see anymore rain.

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Keith234
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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: MrSpock]
      #33164 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:12 PM

The rain is just entering my area, and the winds are starting to pick up. Looks like were in for a nasty night.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: Keith234]
      #33165 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:14 PM

Yep...I was just outside taking a smoke break and it really started comin' down with some decent gusts...further south of me is really taking it on the chin with severe weather and heavy rains. Jeanne, jeanne, just go away!

Bastardi has even opined she may have to be UPGRADED!

2004 - The Season from hell just keeps giving and giving.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: LI Phil]
      #33166 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:20 PM

Gaston strengthened while it was OVER Va. this year, and there was another that did the same thing within the last few years, but the name escapes me. I don't know what it is, but it's like tropical entities don't know Va. is a land mass.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kdox.shtml
This shows a good band wrapping around, and I believe the rotation seen is the mid-level low which the NWS said moved farther north than progged, and messed up the forecast.
Apparently, there was a tornado reported 10 miles (about) east of Philly today, which is about 20 miles from me.
The dew point here in S. Jersey reached 76 today.

Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 28 2004 05:22 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: LI Phil]
      #33167 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:28 PM

Probably should have posted this in between Ivan and Jeanne, but didn't want to make light (then) of serious situations. But, in retorspect, got this e today and thought it humorous.................

Lessons learned through Hurricane Ivan




1. An oak tree on the ground looks four times bigger than it did
standing up.

2. When house hunting look for closets with lots of leg room.

3. Shower water is much colder than kitchen sink water--and tastes just
as bad.

4. AA, C and D are the only alphabet we need.

5. The four-way stop is still an ingenious reflection of civility.

6. Radio can be the best way to watch television.

7. Chain-saw wielding men are nothing to be afraid of.

8. SUV's are the best makeshift tents on the market.

9. You can use your washing machine as a cooler.

10. It's your God-given right to sit on your back porch and eat Chinese
takeout by candlelight in your underwear.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Thomas says..... [Re: mbfly]
      #33169 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:33 PM

No one's talking about it, but Thomas is as of noon today.

Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we have a disturbed area of weather in the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and Panama.

In any event a couple of days or so ago I began mentioning the probability of a Western Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone threat. October-November is basically our local tropical cyclone season. Basically we get splitting and SW backing into the GOM of mid level cold core longwave troughs and associated surface cold fronts and subtropical jet stream mid level shortwave troughs. These temperate mid latitude non tropical weather systems sit out over the still very warm North America ocean waters and transform and grow into warm core tropical systems.

Bottom line we need to watch this disturbance because it will "possibly" grow into a future Tropical Cyclone Matthew and threaten all of the Gulf Coast, but particularly the mid and eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West. To jog our memories, remember CAT 5 Opal in 1995? She was a local home grown tropical cyclone.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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LI Phil
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33171 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:35 PM

Well, since Richie opened the can o' worms...a couple models are developing the system, quote from JB:

"I am very nervous about an Opal-esque ending to the hurricane season, and of course that would mean Opalanoia. I remarked last week how this week looked like the set up that led to Opal's development, but Opal came from the Caribbean. Well, I am concerned that we may see something like that evolving over the next 6-10 days. The southwest Caribbean is getting dirty, and I think this area will drift northwestward and gradually get better organized. The modelling is overwhelming on a westward move into the Yucatan this weekend (yes, it's starting to see it). And while there has to be some concern about it simply trying to come between the two subtropical ridges for a quicker move to the Gulf, I again am relying on the history of what I consider an analog. Let's remember that Florida was hit by four storms in 1995, three of them hurricanes. There are some similarities here to the amount of traffic we have seen. The western and central Gulf remain very warm relative to averages as well as the southwest Caribbean. Suffice to say, I am nervous about the pattern.

Also very warm is the area east of Islands, which may mean the Caribbean islands may have to look out for some renegade African wave, though it would appear that part of the season is shutting down. Lisa has two chances of making it back here, one is slim, the other none."

Right now here it's almost pitch black...not hearing any thunder, but radar is indicating some nasty stuff...pouring and windy.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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meto
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: Keith234]
      #33172 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:36 PM

there are still some strong disturbances in east atlantic....

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Keith234
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33173 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:40 PM

My street is filling up, I think I might have a flash flood on my hands. Very windy just had a gust up to 35mph. How warm are our water temps off NJ and LI?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Tue Sep 28 2004 05:46 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: Keith234]
      #33174 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:46 PM

Probably low 70s

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ShanaTX
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: Keith234]
      #33175 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:53 PM

Are you in a flood plain?
Does your house flood?

Be careful!

'shana


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AmoryBL
Unregistered




Re: Thomas says..... [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33176 - Tue Sep 28 2004 05:58 PM

some people in Polk County have been told they will be without power for up to 21 days!!!!

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Chesapeake Phil
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Lurker Here [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33177 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:04 PM

I discovered this site last year when Isabel was headed my way; came back to follow Charley and this unusual season has had me glued. I've been meaning to post for a while - it just feels like spying if I never post - but didn't want to but in on the flow of pertinent information during the storms.

Anyway, in Kent County, MD (northern Delmarva), we've been feeling Jeanne's remnants this afternoon. Raining hard for hours now and my DirecTV signal is currently having a rough go, so that may mean we have worse on the way. I live right near the mouth of the Sassafrass River and the Chesapeake Bay, but up on a bluff (and in the third story of my building), so flooding's not much of an issue for me.

Oddly, the northern Delmarva has been relatively spared each time the hurricane remnants have gone northeast this year. Got some rain from Charley, but nothing unmanageable. Frances drenched Maryland on the other side of the Bay, but we got a couple showers if that. Ivan brought plenty of rain, but again not as much as across the Chesapeake and we didn't experience the tornadoes that parts of northern Virginia and central Maryland did. Even today, it started raining hard later here than in may areas west and north of us.


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33178 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:07 PM

What am I missing? What's developing?

I'm thinking about getting a weather station for my house. Nothing fancy (or expensive) but I'd like the basics, temp, humidity, pressure etc... and I of course want accuracy too
What brands to y'all recommend? I'm thinking under $200 I've seen a lot of LaCrosse brand is that a good one?
Thanx for the advice!

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Keith234
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33179 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:16 PM

The water just fills up very quickly, I just got hammered with a rainfall rate over 3 inches. Crazy

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Lurker Here [Re: Chesapeake Phil]
      #33180 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:18 PM

Welcome aboard Chesapeake Phil!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: LI Phil]
      #33181 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:23 PM

pretty soon, this board will be Phil'd up!

that was so bad (and off topic), that there should be a rush to delete it.


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LI Phil
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: MrSpock]
      #33182 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:28 PM

Vulcan's aren't supposed to possess a sense of humor...must get it from your mother's side. And the more Phil's the better, I say!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Chesapeake Phil
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: LI Phil]
      #33183 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:34 PM

Quote:

And the more Phil's the better, I say!




Unsurprisingly, I second that motion. It's Philtastic!


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Ocala
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: Chesapeake Phil]
      #33184 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:47 PM

Quote:

Quote:

And the more Phil's the better, I say!




Unsurprisingly, I second that motion. It's Philtastic!




Big belly laugh. But I think you guys are losing it!


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Chesapeake Phil
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: Ocala]
      #33185 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:50 PM

I think the low pressure is tampering with my brain. I actually feel a little buzzed, like you'd feel after a couple of beers. If my head is this sensitive to Jeanne now, I'd hate to imagine what it would have been like at full strength.

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lilyv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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hurricane ivan photos [Re: mbfly]
      #33186 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:54 PM

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/
Click on the front photo, titled Ivan Photos. The slideshow tells the story. Just unbelievable devastation.
As I watched, I of course remembered that other areas of Florida experienced similar destruction with Charley and Jeanne.
Florida has experienced natural disasters of almost unimaginable proportions.

Edited by lilyv (Tue Sep 28 2004 06:58 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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local storm reports [Re: Chesapeake Phil]
      #33187 - Tue Sep 28 2004 06:58 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/LSRPHI

I am not far from the Cherry Hill area, but the weather was night and day.


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Ocala
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Re: Lurker Here [Re: Chesapeake Phil]
      #33188 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:12 PM

Quote:

I think the low pressure is tampering with my brain. I actually feel a little buzzed, like you'd feel after a couple of beers. If my head is this sensitive to Jeanne now, I'd hate to imagine what it would have been like at full strength.




It's called a migraine headache!


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KC
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Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Thomas says..... [Re: Shalafi]
      #33189 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:22 PM

Quote:

What am I missing? What's developing?

I'm thinking about getting a weather station for my house. Nothing fancy (or expensive) but I'd like the basics, temp, humidity, pressure etc... and I of course want accuracy too
What brands to y'all recommend? I'm thinking under $200 I've seen a lot of LaCrosse brand is that a good one?
Thanx for the advice!




Bryan - I would also be interested in a recommendation. All we have is a temperature guage right now.


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33190 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:25 PM

Quote:

No one's talking about it, but Thomas is as of noon today.

Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we have a disturbed area of weather in the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and Panama.

In any event a couple of days or so ago I began mentioning the probability of a Western Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone threat. October-November is basically our local tropical cyclone season. Basically we get splitting and SW backing into the GOM of mid level cold core longwave troughs and associated surface cold fronts and subtropical jet stream mid level shortwave troughs. These temperate mid latitude non tropical weather systems sit out over the still very warm North America ocean waters and transform and grow into warm core tropical systems.

Bottom line we need to watch this disturbance because it will "possibly" grow into a future Tropical Cyclone Matthew and threaten all of the Gulf Coast, but particularly the mid and eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West. To jog our memories, remember CAT 5 Opal in 1995? She was a local home grown tropical cyclone.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL




Collier County Emergency Management sent this message out today:
Lisa's behaving herself, as you see from the models. I do want you to be aware that we are now in that part of the Hurricane Season that tropical cyclones now "magically appear" in the Gulf. The problem with the Gulf is that the storm WILL hit somewhere. So, be aware. No longer will you have days and days to consider your options. Keep your plans current, understanding that you'll have a compressed timeframe for making decisions and acting on them.

Not exactly what we want to hear.....


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MrSpock
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Re: Thomas says..... [Re: KC]
      #33191 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:39 PM

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.80stp/si.kdix.shtml
This is an amazing dop. est. precip shot. There is a frontal boundary in the vicinity of the heaviest amounts. Rain was the last thing anyone in those areas wanted to see, and the reported tornadoes didn't help.


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


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Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Thomas says..... [Re: KC]
      #33192 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:46 PM

I got a recommendation via PM:
Quote:

I recommend that you avoid the lower-end La Crosse and Oregon Scientific weather stations. You will get much better reliability and accuracy by investing in a Davis Instruments weather station. You can buy a Davis Weather Wizard III for $175.00 at http://www.ambientweather.com . The WWIII gives temperature, wind chill, wind direction, and wind speed, with an optional add-on rain guage. The station with rain guage is available for $225. I have had a Weather Wizard III that has lasted me 9 years without trouble. I also have one of the low-end stations, and it has given me trouble to no end. Another option is the Davis Weather Monitor II, which has some more features than the Weather Wizard III. For $355.00, you get the same functions as the WWIII, but with barometric pressure and humidity.

Just thought I'd give you some recommendations based on the experience I have had with weather stations.




Thanx for the info! I'll definately look into it.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Keith234
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Re: local storm reports [Re: MrSpock]
      #33193 - Tue Sep 28 2004 07:45 PM

Is it just me or is Jeanne getting more organized. How long is this rain band going to last.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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SteveieB
Weather Watcher


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Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33194 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:02 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/jeanne/maps/3WAY.png

Here is the Melbourne weather office plot of the 3 storms.


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: SteveieB]
      #33195 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:34 PM Attachment (578 downloads)

I know many people have their doubts about Joe Bastardi and his forecasting of tropical systems, but...you have to admit that he nailed the forecast on Jeanne. Look at the attached Accuweather forecast map they put out on September 15. That's an amazingly accurate forecast placed TEN days out! Joe was off by 4 days on the timing because of Jeanne's little loop-de-loop.
I remember when this forecast came out on Accuweather and it strongly contradicted the NHC forecast of heading North and out to sea. A lot of people thought Joe had lost his marbles. Well, well....he who laughs last....

--Lou


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33196 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:35 PM Attachment (656 downloads)

hmmm.,..I don't see my attachemnt of Joe's forecast map...let's try again.....

--Lou


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33197 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:40 PM

Link looks broken to me...

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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recmod
Weather Guru


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33198 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:37 PM Attachment (612 downloads)

One more try...I guess I have the file format worng...????

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Shalafi
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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33199 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:42 PM

Same problem

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Shalafi
Weather Guru


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33200 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:44 PM

If you look at the list of files there is no file that even has that file number in it.
File list

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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recmod
Weather Guru


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: Shalafi]
      #33201 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:42 PM

This is weird...I have never had a problem with file attachments
How about this:...click on this link: Accuweather Forecast for Jeanne


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: recmod]
      #33202 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:47 PM Attachment (596 downloads)

That worked...

I included the attachment here...it works for me how about for you?

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



Edited by Shalafi (Tue Sep 28 2004 08:48 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: Shalafi]
      #33203 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:57 PM

JB is a good forecaster because he always (well not always) sticks to his orginal forecast. If your going to make a forecast, make one not 40.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: Shalafi]
      #33204 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:02 PM

Holy 5h!+! It raining harder now than it has at any time today...we've already gotten like 4-5" and driving back from an (indoor) tennis match, some of the roads have close to 6" of standing water on them in the low and poor drainage areas. Good thing I have a high profile (although 1 wheel drive) vehicle (Kia sportage). Just heard a bunch of thunder and the flash flood warning which was scheduled to expire at 7:45 has been extended through 11:00.

I cannot imagine what you all went through if this is what I'm getting, 3 days later...

Maybe Bastardi's earlier call for NHC to reclassify the system isn't off the mark...this rivals any nor'easter I ever had the displeasure to go through! If you check out this radar loop, you can see how her center has left the coast and is forming what would appear to be an "eye". It's not of course, but I wonder if she'll really bomb out now that she's out to sea...

Jeanne is still kicking ass...definitely a retired storm after this year. Charley, Frances, Ivan & Jeanne...that's quite enough for me.

EDIT: I stand corrected, TWC just showed that she has not quite exited the coast, but close...just amazing how much of a punch she has...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 28 2004 09:08 PM)


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
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You think Jeanne was done [Re: Shalafi]
      #33205 - Tue Sep 28 2004 08:59 PM

IT took a copule of days for Janne to get fired up and do what Ivan and Frances did down south. Tornados and flooding all around the Philadelphia area:

http://www.nbc10.com/index.html


Flooding Closes Schuylkill Expressway

BREAKING NEWS: Major flooding has closed the Schuylkill Expressway in both directions from Conshohocken to Belmont Avenue as police pull cars from the highway. Flooding also has closed the Kelly Drive and the Lincoln Drive in East Falls.

Jeanne's Remnants Trigger Tornadoes, Flooding In Region

The remnants of Hurricane Jeanne triggered two tornadoes in Cherry Hill Tuesday, along with flooded roads and traffic accidents. Left: a tornado hits at the New Castle County Airport


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
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Re: Comment on Joe Bastardi [Re: LI Phil]
      #33206 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:13 PM

Yeah, there's a really strong rain band going to come on very soon. My rain guage is at 5.27" it only goes to 8" it might overflow. The wind is a weak 35 mph but that's strong for up here, we rarely get over 50 so this is pretty strong.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Rain Guage [Re: Keith234]
      #33207 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:16 PM

When it gets to 6", you might think about dumping it...we're supposed to get at least 2-3" more before all is said and done!

The rain has now breached my triple pane windows and is dripping onto my sills...this happens maybe once or twice a year!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
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Re: Rain Guage [Re: LI Phil]
      #33208 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:19 PM

I think I should do that. If you look at the radar, it's just a blob of rain for about 200-300 miles out moving to our direction.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Rain Guage [Re: LI Phil]
      #33209 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:32 PM

Welcome to FL! Oh wait you're not here..well I'm glad all you have to worry about is flooding.

We have a septic tank and now it's overflowing. As far as we know it's not turning our yard into a toilet just yet because we noticed it soon. Guy coming out tomorrow morning to pump it. First time it's needed maintenance since '87 so we're doing something right. I'm just glad we don't have a basement for it to backup into...
Stay safe up there! I'm sure you've had your phil of rain already..(sorry, had to get in on the phil puns)

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Rain Guage [Re: Shalafi]
      #33210 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:43 PM

I must say here in St CLoud we have some minor flloding issues, but overall we are surviving. I think our power company OUC cut the power to save transformers etc. Whatever they did we had power restored fairly quicky. Thank God. Many power polls are serverly bent and in need of replacing but they say very few are without power in Osceola county. Kids return to school tommorrow! yay. things slowly getting to a state of narmalcy here. I also have a huge oak tree in my from yard that is serverly leaning towards my house. the darn thing is its the citys tree and i have called to complain and i think whats keeping it up is the cement pad of my driveway. I kinda hope the tree dies and then the threat of it falling on my home will go away.

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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Rain Guage [Re: Liz L.]
      #33211 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:45 PM

http://www.local6.com/news/3767114/detail.html
one thing we are now dealing with here


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Chesapeake Phil
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Betterton, MD
Jeanne Drags On [Re: LI Phil]
      #33212 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:42 PM

After I last posted it rained harder here than it had all day and the wind picked up. Hadn't realized I left the bathroom window fully open - discovered I ended up with a little swimming pool in there. Even up on this bluff, our road looked about as water-covered as I'd ever seen it. I imagine the low-lying areas in my county and Cecil County to the north aren't pretty right now. Lots of farms around here, but most of the main crops have been harvested by now, so luckily they won't be swimming in standing water.

Things seemed to have slowed a bit - still a steady rain, but not downpouring at the rate it was before. Wind has changed direction for the most part and calmed quite a bit as well.

My heart goes out to all those further south who dealt with this when it was much, much stronger.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: LI Phil]
      #33214 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:51 PM

Quote:

Yep...I was just outside taking a smoke break and it really started comin' down with some decent gusts...further south of me is really taking it on the chin with severe weather and heavy rains. Jeanne, jeanne, just go away!

Bastardi has even opined she may have to be UPGRADED!

2004 - The Season from hell just keeps giving and giving.


Upgraded to what?

I kinda thought you'd see a bit of rain, but just 'blustery' winds. It isn't a TS is it?

Anyhow, got power back today, moving my stuff back from my evac location. This will take a half dozen more trips but my boss needs his garage back <grin>.

One side effect of the moving....I tossed the one and only belt that fits me into *something* just before I tossed the last load into the car for the move to my shelter. Damm if I could find my belt today as I got ready to dress so I could go teach my students. I found a piece of extension cord and was going to wear that to class, when I finally found the location....somehow, the belt ended up in the CAT LITTER container...the fresh stuff, but I use the empty cat litter pails for storing things I want to be protected, leakproof, etc., and they are plentiful around my house. I figure that I must have opened the lid of the *real* cat litter container without looking, thinking it the one I was using for my 'need-em-a-hurry' personal effects and dropped iin my belt. Can you see me standing in front of my computer class trying to teach a class of computer wanna-be geeks, trying to explain why I was using an extension cord to hold my pants up???

My students see me as a non-conformist already, They'd probably believe me no matter what I told them, EXCEPT that I lost my belt in a cat-litter box.

Phil, I hope you are more organized than I am and that you will not be inconveniencec too badly by Jeanne. Good luck!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Chesapeake Phil
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: Ricreig]
      #33215 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:55 PM

Quote:

Upgraded to what?

I kinda thought you'd see a bit of rain, but just 'blustery' winds. It isn't a TS is it?




I doubt we had TS force winds here, but when our final strong band went through, the winds here were stronger than the 20 mph winds that were forecasted for us this morning. That only lasted about 30 minutes max I'd say, though. Other than that, it has just been a pretty good breeze with some stronger gusts.


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: Ricreig]
      #33216 - Tue Sep 28 2004 09:58 PM

Richard, glad to see you are up and teaching again. At least it wasn't the other litter box. Just logged in and reading up on Jeanne.
She won't go away!
I saw a football field?, on TWC, with water 18 inches from the bottom of the goalposts! Wow!

The last TD Advisory on Jeanne , has winds at 30mph. Now HPC has issued an Advisory with extratropical Jeanne and 35mph winds. What gives? They downgrade her and she spins up.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 28 2004 10:02 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: danielw]
      #33217 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:04 PM

Obviously, if you read the above (or at least it was when I started this message) post, danielw, AKA Danny is our new overnight moderator...

He will be most excellent, I can guarantee that.

He's faster than I am with scoring info, quick witted, and knows a helluva lot about the weather...you got questions...we got answers!

Welcome aboard Danny!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33218 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:08 PM

Hey Phil, that's Radio shack's slogan!
I'll do what I can for you folks. Info, info and info.
I'm not a met., but I did stay at Holiday Inn last night.


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
TS force winds at the Jersey Shore tomorrow. [Re: danielw]
      #33219 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:14 PM

There expecting 20-30 mph winds gust to 40 in south Jersey, so Jeanne is doin something..

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: danielw]
      #33220 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:28 PM

Hi Danny!

Welcome to overnite mod-dom !



Congratulations!!!!!!
Thanks, Shana. "Mod-dom"??

YW. Yeah, what do you *you* call it? snicker

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Sep 28 2004 10:44 PM)


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ShanaTX
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Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: Ricreig]
      #33221 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:32 PM

Quote:

I found a piece of extension cord and was going to wear that to class




If they're anything like the people I know they'll either

never notice the belt

or

want one for themselves...

My sister's husband once helped install a new fan in my car. The cord was too short so he used a lamp cord... that was 10 years ago and it's still there. Good thing he's an Electrical Engineer.

edited to add: I just changed titles so I went to check the titile list at the FAQ. Here's what I want to be when I grow up...

2500 Is the weather


'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Sep 28 2004 10:42 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne won't quit [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33222 - Tue Sep 28 2004 10:53 PM

2,500 posts...I'll be there in a week or two the way this season is going!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 2500 [Re: LI Phil]
      #33223 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:03 PM

Phil you have 604 to go!

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
up here [Re: LI Phil]
      #33224 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:08 PM

The PHL discussion just mentioned that there are 60 kt. winds just above the surface that are mixing down in heavier rain showers, and without warning, since there is little lightning activity. Due to the ground truth of 6-8" rains, downed trees are an issue, and they are warning people it is a life-threatening situation. Many areas along the Del. river have sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to over 40, and this was not really forecast. Phil, in a PM the other day I said I thought you'd get 2-5" of rain which was more than the models forecast, and that might not have been enough. Here we have near 2" with it still raining, but cooler air has drained in as it is now 66 deg.
This may have come through as a weakened system, and the threats were less, but the models did a woeful job of forecasting what happened up here today. In their defense, the range is from less than 1" along the coast, to over half a foot inland. They did mention the GFS nailed the early rains over N.E. Pa though, so I may be overstating my case a little.

There are also numerous reports of water rescues.

Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 28 2004 11:23 PM)


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: LI Phil]
      #33225 - Tue Sep 28 2004 11:56 PM

Welcome Danny! Just got our power back and I must say I really missed this site. Frances was bad for us but Jeanne was worse. But, we are safe and hopefully on our way back to some normal life again. I have only lived here in Port Saint Lucie for 2 years and what I have learned about hurricanes here on this site has helped tremendously. Thank you all from the bottom of my heart.

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #33226 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:02 AM

ok now this scares me a little....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html

also does anyone have the link to the disturbance WXMANRICHIE was talking about? The one off of Nicaragua?


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Accuweather [Re: LI Phil]
      #33227 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:05 AM

Phirst of all (had to get the PH in there ), to all of you up north who are feeling the remnants of Jeanne...stay safe. Remember this saying:

"TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN"

You never know just how deep the water is and it rises fast (take my word for it) so if you can't see the road, don't drive through it.

Accuweather: someone mentioned that Accuweather nailed Jeanne, and they indeed did. I think they nailed Charley, Frances and Ivan, too. So, when Denis Phillips from ABC 28 in Tampa started talking about Jeanne, he had on JB. He explained WHY Jeanne would not make that forecasted "skirt up the Florida coast because of the High being lower than the 2 models wanted it to be. Denis is one of those forecasters who usually comes forward with his own thoughts and depending on what he SEES, he will either go with the NHC or maybe just defer slightly from it. With Jeanne, he really emphasized that the Accuweather forecast was not out of the question, but also told us to stay focused on the NHC. Basically, to make a long story short ---which I have a hard time doing if you haven't noticed---he told us to keep an eye on Jeanne, and what I read between the lines was that even though he wouldn't go as far as disagreeing with the models forecast, he wasn't all that convinced. Being that I am almost on first name basis with almost every local met in TB, I emailed him asking him who's forecasts had been more accurate this year: NHC or Accuweather. He emailed me back the next day and told me that Accuweather had been more accurate this year, but that it varied year to year. In other words,what I inferred from that email was this: he was saying "Accuweather's better this year than ever before but I am in CYA mode so I had to add in the "but it varies from year to year bit."
Polk Schools are off until next Monday, and the only reason we were allowed to have football practice with the dusk-til-dawn curfew was because we had lights on the practice field.
Plus, 10 billion mosquitos just waiting to suck our blood.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
User


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quieter days...? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #33228 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:13 AM

short late post. jeanne's extratropical successor is bending eastward.. it's rainshield soon to depart new jersey, while clinging to southern new england overnight as the system moves away. lisa persists as a tropical storm, though it appears likely to reach hurricane strength before getting too far north and undergoing extratropical conversion. my earlier bid that lisa would be held by the ridge failed, so shame on me for botching that idea.
eastern part of the basin essentially done as september closes and an upper trough hangs off the west african coast. development closer to the caribbean, remains possible, though modeling is losing it's urge to develop every other emerging wave... not too much more going to happen out there. globals showing various versions of a slow evolution in the western caribbean.. of one of those october hurricanes that makes florida nervous. since Opal these types of system have summarily turned east over cuba, save irene in '99.. based on recent events i'd be a tad more concerned. still too far out to pick out specifics of development, or whether any system would track over central america and remain weak or not threaten areas to the north. suffice to say the area between colombia and the bay of campeche is the biggest concern in the basin from here. still a shot at potential action in the western atlantic, those homebrews that happen from cutoffs or amplified troughs that block the advance of wave energy.. nothing on the scope at this point.
basin looks to go quiet over the next few save a persistent but sputtering lisa, and a slow threat materializing in the western caribbean...
HF 0412z29september


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
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Question for Kent [Re: Kent]
      #33230 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:22 AM

Kent...what part of that loop scares you? I might not be looking at the right area. Are you concerned about the wave coming off of Africa? or the little blob just west of the Cape Verde Islands?
You don't have to answer me right now....I just checked some of the models, they aren't (as of 12:12pm) showing anything developing, but who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Turn East and blow as hard as you can towards that area.
I've had my phil of hurricanes this year...when it seems to become a normal weather event, you know it's been a bad season.
I'm off to get some sleep so I have the strength to deal with Thing 1 and Thing 2 tomorrow....and possibly Thing 2's friend Thing 3.
Nite all...and to all of our friends up north, stay safe and well.
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #33231 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:30 AM

Thanks DebbiePSL.
Glad you are safe and back on the board. I missed the board during the server problems a few weeks ago. I then decided that CFHC was addicting.
Kent: Although the WV loop off the African Coast does have a midlevel swirl in it. I would think there is a 50/50 chance that Lisa's outflow would influence it. We'll know better tomorrow.
I have checked the discussions, sat loops and 2 of the models. So far-nothing in the GOM but a tropical wave. That's out to Sunday morning-1200Z.
Hank covered this so much better than I could!
Colleen: glad you made it back also. Several of the Lakeland members had posted about your neighborhood.
Is there anyone left that hasn't been back on the board. I don't think ED has been up yet, but I haven't checked today.

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 29 2004 12:36 AM)


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: danielw]
      #33232 - Wed Sep 29 2004 02:02 AM

This has been interesting, but I get the feeling that if you are not one of the "in" people, people are just not interested in you. Thought I might get at least a welcome or something, but, no dice. I guess you guys down there have more important stuff to do. See you later

Second Shift, Welcome Aboard...You registered on 9/11, a very crazy time...I apologize we didn't welcome you formally...now we have!

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 29 2004 11:17 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: Second Shift]
      #33233 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:42 AM

Quote:

This has been interesting, but I get the feeling that if you are not one of the "in" people, people are just not interested in you. Thought I might get at least a welcome or something, but, no dice. I guess you guys down there have more important stuff to do. See you later




nah, not more important stuff to do, just trying to relax and catch our breath after a rather hectic 2 months. Come on back, while a few people know each other on here, I'm personally not coming in expecting to make friends with anyone on here. I'm here to read on hurricanes, learn about the storms, and otherwise put my occasional 1.5 cents in the mix. This group is a fairly friendly lot actually. And I know I try to read every post on here, even when it's 500 of them. (they start to blur together if you're not careful....)

Chin up and hang around, we're just exhausted, not mean
Mark

Falcons 3 - 0.... woo woo


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Off Topic suggestion for the Mods? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33234 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:46 AM

hey guys, would it be viable to move a lot of the information for relatively new people into a manual, call it RTFM if you want. then conspicuously post it at the top of each thread. I don't mind the questions, But some of the more basic ones would be best served in their own FAQ page.

Trust me, I'm not complaining about this site at all... but it's just an idea that may or may not be useful. (if you do have a place like this on here... I've never seen it

Mark

Good suggestion...I'll bring it up with Mike.
Falcons 3 - 0 winner of the sominex game of the week award

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 29 2004 11:19 AM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Off Topic suggestion for the Mods? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33235 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:59 AM

It is an idea..... Have to see what John, Mike and the gang think...I just got in...new system...bugs...etc. It will be passed along.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: Second Shift]
      #33236 - Wed Sep 29 2004 04:09 AM

You are welcome.... things have been...well, making history lately! Sent you a PM... we will get there... let me know what we need to do.

Coop

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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