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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
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Something new in the Bay of Campeche
      #33640 - Thu Oct 07 2004 03:42 AM

Not that anyone needs it.... we now have something new in the Bay of Campeche to keep an eye on. The TPC has shown some interest in this so all should be watching along the gulf coast...again.



There is a slow moving system there which is moving slowly northward and it has the potential to get organzied a bit maybe by Saturday (perhaps sooner). It would suggest a possible Tropical storm later, but we'll watch.

Development Potential Scale
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-------]



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Even more on the links page.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Oct 07 2004 06:11 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33642 - Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM

Flood Watches have been posted, most since Wednesday,
for all of the Texas coast from Brownsville to the Jefferson / Chambers county line. As of 3:30AM CDT-Thursday.

Clickable Map for warning and watches.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 07 2004 05:27 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SW Gulf Of Mexico [Re: danielw]
      #33643 - Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM

Satellite imagery from 0545Z to 0815Z indicates the convection in the SW GOM has increased in size and intensity. 0815Z IR imagery also indicates a marked increase in the lightning in the two convective areas.
Earlier mid-level circulation observed near 23.0N and 95.0W.
Latest imagery showing a circulation more to the SW of the 23.0/ 95.0 location.
Long awaited upper trough is moving into W Texas at this time,4AM CDT, and is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward.
See the above link for watches and warnings in your area.

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 07 2004 05:21 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook [Re: danielw]
      #33644 - Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 07 2004 05:26 AM)


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ShanaTX
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Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast [Re: danielw]
      #33645 - Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM

Thank you

Flood Watches have been also posted for counties in Central and South Central Texas. They've been up for a couple of days already...

Hazardous Weather statements are up for all of Texas except for the counties surrounding El Paso.

They keep telling us we're going to have a gullywasher here, but so far in N Austin we've just seen scattered showers. Well except for the cats and dogs and rabbits we saw Sat night

But today's the day they predicted the highest chance for heavy rain...

'shana


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LI Phil
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Scatt... [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33646 - Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM

Looks like we have the makings of a tropical system. Of course, the big debate is whether NHC will decide whether it is truly tropical, a hybrid, or extra-tropical. As long as NRL has it as 95L, there remains a chance it will be christened Matthew. In any event, heavy rains and flooding for Texas are likely, and the center should remain off the coast while being drawn northeast and east...eventually forecast to "landfall" near Pensacola, of all places

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ronn
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Re: Scatt... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33647 - Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM

This reminds me of TS Josephine in 1996. It will be a very lop-sided system, with most of the rain on the eastern side. It will probably start becoming extratropical as it moves across the NE Gulf, and will therefore have a large wind field. I doubt this will make it to hurricane strength, but it has the potential to be a strong TS. A typical October system.

On a side note, winds are 20-25mph here in Central Florida today. Pressure is high, and there is a strong gradient between the high pressure over us and the developing tropical system.

God Bless,
Ronn


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James88
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Re: Scatt... [Re: Ronn]
      #33648 - Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM

It also reminds me a little of TS Larry last year. As I remember that system hung around in the BOC for a few days getting itself together.

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Kal
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Five for Florida? [Re: LI Phil]
      #33650 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM

Landfall near Pensacola, eh? I'll refrain from uttering the obligatory cliche of "we don't need this" because the point is obvious.

I don't expect a major system, but I won't let my guard down either. That said, even a minor storm could wreak havoc on folks who are depending on simple blue tarps to keep rainwater out of their homes. With so much debris still piled up around us, as well as damaged structures and trees that could easily become debris, the danger is very real. I don't mean to sound alarmist, I just want to underscore just how fragile and tenuous the situation is for folks who have already endured mother nature's wrath. We've still got a lot of hurricane season left.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Kal]
      #33651 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM

NOUS42 KNHC 071600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 07 OCT 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCT 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 08/1800, 09/0000Z A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 03DDA CYCLONE
C. 08/1530Z C. 09/0330Z
D. 25.5N 95.5W D. 26.5N 93.5W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF THIS AREA
TODAY IS EXPECTED NEAR 07/1900Z.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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andy1tom
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33652 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM

ahhhhhh last weekend... no tropical worries. back to hurricane season now. do you really think it may get to trop. storm statis?? the longer it stays in the gulf i feel the better the chances are.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: andy1tom]
      #33653 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM

Not sure about TS status. We got some shear but also some good SST's. I don't think there is much question of the general track whatever it becomes

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33654 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM

Well I think the system down there is still a TD but I dont think it will really develop as westerly sheer will preclude anything.
If it does then a movement along with the NHC is forcasted.


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devin
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33655 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM

scott, can you please tell me the definition of extratropical?

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LI Phil
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: devin]
      #33656 - Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM

Quote:

scott, can you please tell me the definition of extratropical?




\Ex`tra*trop"ic*al\, a.
Beyond or outside of the tropics. --Whewell.


From Webster's 1913 dictionary...pretty lame definition if you ask me...

Extratropical is a term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical" characteristics. The term implies both poleward displacement of the cyclone and the conversion of the cyclone's primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM)


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grasshopper2
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: andy1tom]
      #33657 - Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM

So much for our trip to the middelgrounds. Good thing i got my fishing fix last Sun. Can't I just get 2 weekends to fish?

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: grasshopper2]
      #33659 - Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM

Part of tally AFD...

.SHORT TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING TO THE NE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ETA AND GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE GULF LOW ON THE 12 UTC RUNS. AFTER BEING VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN
E-NE MOVING SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED MUCH
MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN THE ETA...AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHWARD THROUGH
LOUISIANNA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE IN A VERY
BAROCLINIC MANNER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE WATCHING FOR VERY
CLOSELY. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE INLAND TO OUR WEST...WE WILL END UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
LESS OR A SHORTER PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...PLAN ON
NUDGING THE GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER
POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...CURRENT THINKING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED CONDITION MAY LAST
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AS THERE IS A STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
ETA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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andy1tom
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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: grasshopper2]
      #33660 - Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM

soon as snapper season ends the weather will clear..also usually after a storm the grouper fishing is great around here. in the paper it says it is but we sure haven't caught any and none of the structures moved that we have been to

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Five for Florida? [Re: andy1tom]
      #33661 - Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM

There is a 1009.5mb low now on the coast near Tampico Mx moving inland. There is a mid level reflection of this low just east of there by about 50-100miles offshore. This should be the end of the questionable TD. A baronclonic low should form off the Texas coast during the next day or so. This will move up over La over the weekend as it goes along the western end of a strong mid latitude ridge over the eastern U.S............................................

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grasshopper2
Unregistered




Re: Five for Florida? [Re: andy1tom]
      #33662 - Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM

Bagged a 23" annd 28" last Sunday. If i'm not mistaken we were just E of the Pasco County Artificial reef. The bite was very short however.

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