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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear
      #33819 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:08 PM

Saturday 5PM Update:
From the NHC: AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

I sense a little gamesmanship at NHC (differing opinions) but at any rate, Matthew is a minimal Tropical Storm again with sustained winds of 35 knots. Matthew still moving just east of north toward the central Louisiana coast. The center is once again exposed and the weather remains to the east of the center.

Saturday 11AM Update:
Matthew is now a Tropical Depression moving to the NNE at 10mph - caught up in the low-level southerly flow ahead of a strong front - so much for the earlier analysis (see below). He is heading for the central Louisiana coast within 24 hours with most of the rain expected to the east of the landfall area. One for the global models - they nailed this one.

Original Post:
Matthew is barely surviving this morning and the TS rating is certainly generous. The cyclone is currently under about 30 knots of west to southwest wind shear and the convection is to the northeast of the center. The shear is expected to decrease to about 20 knots on Monday, however I doubt that Matthew can regain tropical storm strength again. The official forecast moves the storm to the northeast and north northeast around a cutoff upper level low - but the low is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado and the Texas panhandle - and that is a long way from the storm. Upper level winds along the northern Gulf coast are still expected to remain southwesterly - even westerly - so I'm still having my doubts about the anticipated eventual turn to the north. Matthew will likely remain a TD for the remainder of its existence and move northeast toward the north Florida coast.

Invest 96L south of Bermuda is also encountering strong southerly shear with convection removed well to the north of the well defined low level circulation center - looking very subtropical at the moment. Still some chance for additional development when the shear weakens in about two days.

The remainder of the basin remains quiet with nothing on the immediate horizon.
ED

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33821 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:19 PM

Thanks for the new thread Ed! Looks like this may turn out only to be a wet weekend.

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LI Phil
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33822 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:52 PM

Echoing Coop, thanks for the new thread, Ed.

Haven't had time to check any models or other sites, have to work (no computer access) again today, then I'm outta here till Monday.

Sounds like Matthew es jist guoing tew kause sum reign. (those who know get it).

Everybody stay safe, I hope all Matthew provides is some rain, no winds...and I hope the thing south of Bermuda doesn't spin up...although if its (Noelle???) target is the EC, anywhere north of FL can probably handle it, unlike our comrades in the GOM who were pummelled by Ivan, and FL EC by Jeanne.

Enjoy the long weekend, all you Colombians

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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andy1tom(me)
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: LI Phil]
      #33824 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:53 PM

you are too funny phil..just what i want is a rainy weekend with good football on. life is good with no canes in the picture for a seminole fan. thought i was logged in??

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Steve
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Matthew and rain... [Re: andy1tom(me)]
      #33826 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:54 PM

I think the city's up to about 4.5". It's still too tough to say whether or not we're going to get in on tonight's rainshield or not. Until then, it's drizzly mid 70's and not a bad day at all (if you like tropical weather).

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 01:04 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Matthew making a last run [Re: Steve]
      #33827 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:08 PM

based on recon...and sats....i think matthew may make TS by 5 tonight... there is strong shear, but appears a little weaker in last few hrs. pressure from recon that is out there now, is around 1000mb...lowest i've seen is 999mb...the CDO looks to have moved back over center...winds still around 35mph
thinking around 45mph at landfall

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FireAng
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33828 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:29 PM

What's your thoughts on the thing near Bermuda? We are getting away free from Mathew...whew..... but should we be concerned about that one near Bermuda here in Central Florida?
Thanks!!
Angie


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anony
Unregistered




Re: Matthew making a last run [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33831 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:44 PM

997 latest and 40 kt FL, 35 kt surface, CDO and center colocated= TS at 5pm unless NHC is out to lunch...seems to have slowed down and moving more east a tad.

System s of Bermuda getting close...and another spin in BOC to watch and e if Leewards...interesting!

sc


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anony
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: FireAng]
      #33832 - Sat Oct 09 2004 07:45 PM

No worries, Ang.

sc


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Steve Hirschb.
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33833 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:01 PM

Yeah, matthew is trying to get organized again. Where he exactly is hard to say, especially with the latest rumor of slowing down, eastward move. Let's see at 5. Thing to watch for the US might be down the road in a week to ten days. GFS has been showing a tropical cyclone down in the western Caribbean for days now in the long range. Other models have been hinting at this as well. Since the western Carib really hasn't been heard from this year, warm waters and lower pressures may cause something to develop down there before the month is out. Disturbance + UL conditions will be required. But as I posted last week, I think another major cane will develop down there the third week of October. So I have kept my plywood up on everything but the front door jst in case. Happy tracking! Cheers!!

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anony
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #33834 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:55 PM

TD Mattew is TS Matthew again, and TS warnings are posted from Al/Fl border to Intracoastal City, La. 40 mph, 997mb

sc


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Matt033
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33836 - Sun Oct 10 2004 12:04 AM

The system near 30 north/62 west is a subtroical storm...Deep convection is forming right over the LLC. The system is becoming more enline with the upper/mid/low levels. Who cares if there is a weak front on it. Many storms have them. The NHC needs to make the upgrade at 11pm or not name Subtropical cyclones at all. Case closed. start Riping me apart for my options.

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mbfly
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33837 - Sun Oct 10 2004 12:49 AM

Meek Matthew isn't enough to worry me much after Ivan last month, but it does make for a pretty lousy weekend !! I wonder if they are going to change the projected path back toward the east some since he seems to be going almost due east at the moment

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: mbfly]
      #33838 - Sun Oct 10 2004 01:05 AM

Excellent point. We will have to wait until the 10pm Advisory to find out which side won- re:ED's earlier post.

Matthew is very close to the Canadian model from last night. The whole 4pm track is with that model. Some of the others may have come around to the current track, but the Canadian was the first.
Word of caution. Some areas have received very heavy rainfall amounts in the last 48 hours. Should the winds increase in your area. Trees will blow over with a lot less wind than you would normally see.
Rapid runoff will cause flash flooding, and the coastal flooding will not allow the creeks, bayous and streams to compensate.


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mbfly
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: danielw]
      #33839 - Sun Oct 10 2004 01:15 AM

Some areas have received very heavy rainfall amounts in the last 48 hours. Should the winds increase in your area. Trees will blow over with a lot less wind than you would normally see.




Yeah........ no kidding -- especially since a LOT of them are still leaning and half out of the ground after Ivan. Fortunately my yard is ok from a tree standpoint, but it wouldn't take much for part of my roof to go !

(off-topic material removed. Post could not be moved because of too many connected follow-on posts)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 01:11 PM)


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Matt033
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: mbfly]
      #33840 - Sun Oct 10 2004 01:30 AM

It is now a sub-tropical storm

St2.5/2.5

The front is breaking off from the system.


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Terra
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Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Matt033]
      #33841 - Sun Oct 10 2004 01:41 AM

Whatever it is now, I wish it would just hurry along and go away. Weather looks nice once it passes!

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: Terra]
      #33842 - Sun Oct 10 2004 02:33 AM

May be jumping the gun a little but Matt is cooked. All the convection is far east and north. It does look like the LLC is following the NHC track pretty close so far, just no weather to speak of with it.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33843 - Sun Oct 10 2004 02:42 AM

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING....

....NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD.
AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...
AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.



Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 10 2004 02:45 AM)


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Steve
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Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: danielw]
      #33844 - Sun Oct 10 2004 02:54 AM

Caught some heavy weather driving to a birthday party around 6ish tonight. It's been breezy with intermittant rain, but it's mostly been a fun storm. I'm hoping that some convection can rebuild when the storm approaches the coast, and I hope that's a bit west of me, though I don't know for sure where landfall will be. If I can get another 3-5" out of Matthew, he'll be one to remember not for the flooding but just for something to trip on during an otherwise boring October weekend.

Steve

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