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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Redbird
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Re: OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #33966 - Thu Oct 14 2004 09:59 PM

I guess I don't see how talking to trees is any stranger than saying prayers to some old bearded man in the sky......at least the trees can be seen.

Bearded man planted the trees. Maybe she was talking to him too!

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 17 2004 06:53 AM)


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Rabbit
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Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33968 - Thu Oct 14 2004 11:12 PM

Otto later??

the old LLC has dissipated and made way for a new one very near the SE edge of the convection
we could see the 15th storm of the season by the weekend


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LI Phil
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Numbers... [Re: Rabbit]
      #33969 - Thu Oct 14 2004 11:52 PM

Bugsy,

You need to update your numbers...should be 15/14/8/6 for you... Matthew & Nicole= 13 & 14.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Matt033
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Re: Numbers... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33973 - Fri Oct 15 2004 01:17 AM

With that New LLC forming near the southeastern side of the covnection. It is pretty close to becoming Otto.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Matt033]
      #33975 - Fri Oct 15 2004 09:43 AM

NRL keeping 97L as an active area. Satellite branches are no longer giving it numbers, as of 09Z.

Area of thunderstorms has formed of the coast of Veracruz,MX. At 09Z area was centered near 20.5N and 96.0W. Drifting just S of due E over the Bay of Campeche. Convection increased as the system moved offshore, but has now decreased in coverage and intensity. Lightning, visible from satellite imagery, is now confined to a small area in the center. System is moving along the 20degree line toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

09Z buoy observations showing temperatures from 47.7 at Bay St Louis,MS to 81.9 at Sand Key, FL. Dewpoints from 34.7F at Sabine River,TX to a high of 71.4 at the East Gulf Buoy.
Cool temperatures, brisk northwesterly wind and clouds should keep the Gulf of Mexico quiet for a few days or more. Once the cold front pushes through the Southeast, sea water temperatures should begin to drop below levels needed for tropical system development.
Grab a windbreaker and have a nice weekend.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYSTEM TODAY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 15 2004 09:48 AM)


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: danielw]
      #33976 - Fri Oct 15 2004 03:28 PM

Agree, this cold front should drop SSTs a couple of degrees. One more cyclone out of the Caribbean this year, then it should be done. Cheers!!

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Keith234
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33977 - Fri Oct 15 2004 06:32 PM

Just want to make a suggestion, if you do make a comment, make sure information is viable, and true. Many people rely on this site. Not trying to bust your chops but please consider this. Thanks!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Keith234]
      #33978 - Fri Oct 15 2004 06:51 PM

Keith,

I'm not sure to what you are referring. Steveh. was making a couple of observations, both of which may very well turn out to be true (actually, I think he was more agreeing with Danny anyway). There was no attempt to mislead or otherwise put out non-facts. Cold front SHOULD reduce SSTs and hopefully there is ONLY one more storm (and hopefully NONE) from the Carribbean.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Oct 15 2004 06:52 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: LI Phil]
      #33980 - Fri Oct 15 2004 07:23 PM

Yes the cold front should reduce the SST's but not by more then 2 degree's. Water has a high specific heat and doesn't take in or give out heat fast enough for the water temp. to drop more then 2 degree's in a handfull of days. I know 79 is the magic number when it comes to tropical cycone development but tropical storms can still (and do) materlize under the 79 F mark. No worries, okay.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Keith234]
      #33981 - Fri Oct 15 2004 09:30 PM

it's time for the gulf SSTs to drop below support threshold anyway, as a function of season. keith, the upper pattern that develops around the gulf this late in the season acts to kill whatever leftover chances of development there are from marginal SSTs.. if you don't believe me go check the archive data and see how many tropical cyclones form in the gulf after october 15th.
97L still looking nearly subtropical, but progged to become less distinct over time as a complex of other lows develops nearby in the upper trough.
lower BOC activity very depressed.. atypical for a feature like that to spawn anything this late in the year.
globals still hinting at central atlantic cyclogenesis (tropical or non, who can say). late in the period GFS thinks a low should develop in the sw caribbean, due to pattern. all this makes me think one more storm this month if anything at all.
westpac activity still blasting away, eastpac disturbances still active.. there ought to be another shot or two this season, but the really bad things from earlier likely ended with jeanne's departure.
HF 2125z15october


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33984 - Sat Oct 16 2004 01:13 PM

Its cool this morning in sunny central Florida. Its hard to tell that we have had 3 major hurricanes bulls-eye this area, except for the loose shingles still in the streets and the never ending piles of dead debris, from lawns. I suppose that the city trash collecting service is still working on the big stuff like acres and acres of tree trunks. Talk about lower furniture prices!
I am going to miss summer. It was exciing and scary and my favorite time of year. I do not think we will see any more tropical storms or depressions. But, I wonder about winter storms. Will they be severe as well? Does anyone here have an opinion?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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summercyclone
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Re: N of Panama [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33998 - Sun Oct 17 2004 04:25 PM

Outflow, twist??

sc


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Storm Cooper
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Re: N of Panama [Re: summercyclone]
      #33999 - Sun Oct 17 2004 04:32 PM

It looks cool but I would not get too excited about it. It does however have some model support.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Oct 17 2004 04:36 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: N of Panama [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34000 - Sun Oct 17 2004 07:20 PM

The model's have something developing from the strong jet streak in the mid-west and propogating eastward and then developing once in the Atlantic. With all this excessive jet stream energy, and the wind shear I think this will be a strong ULL that get's pulled out to sea, with all this Canadian maritime blocking going on. The reason why I metion this is because there's really nothing else to talk about.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Hurric
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Re: N of Panama [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34002 - Mon Oct 18 2004 12:30 PM

The area of convection that moved off Colombia and is now north of Panama is moving NW and has a certain look to it this morning on IR4. It probably won't look like much by tonite but who knows; after all it is in the right area at the right time. I just feel that we will see one more named storm before the season is finished. The quiet cool time sure is nice.
Hurric


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Ed in Va
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Re: N of Panama [Re: Hurric]
      #34003 - Mon Oct 18 2004 05:59 PM

What's the action off eastern Cuba at the end of the GFS loop? Tropical...but would be quite unusual for that location this late in season?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed in Va
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Forgot link [Re: Ed in Va]
      #34004 - Mon Oct 18 2004 06:12 PM

Forgot link:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Keith234
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Recapitulate of Weather [Re: Ed in Va]
      #34006 - Mon Oct 18 2004 09:41 PM

I see that as probably the last named storm of the season, which there are two ways for it to get there.
1.The troughs seem to "breaking off" at the bottom and being left behind, as a general trend indicated by the GFS ensembles. If there is a strong enough ridge in place, then they're will be sufficient change in amplitude of the trough, which will therefore allow it to "break off" at the bottom at mingle and possibly develop.
2. A area of low-pressure breaks off from the monsoon-type trough over northern South America and develops, slowly but surely; pretty much the same way Matt formed.
Those are the two ways that I think the next named storm will form if any does, I don't think we will have anymore CV systems, they won't be able to get past the TUTT's out there in there in the open Atlantic.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Clark
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October activity [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34007 - Mon Oct 18 2004 10:40 PM

The basin isn't terribly active, but there are a couple of things to watch. Nothing out near Africa, however, so for those of you with the METEOSAT-7 bookmarks in plain view...I think it's safe to say you can put those away for this season.

First feature of note is a small mid/upper low just east of the islands at about 12 N and 55 W. It's nothing much right now, but it cut off from the main flow and, if it were to work its way down to the surface (effectively cutting off the self-inflicted shear going on right now), something could develop. Not terribly likely, but not unlikely either. Several days away from development at the least, if at all.

Convection in the SW Caribbean has subsided for now. There is very little organization to the activity and it is nearing a region of higher shear just to its north, so further development is not likely. However, any time something perks up down there this time of year, it must be watched. The boundary just to its north is stalling and could provide something to watch, but that's just storm mongering at this point. None of the above scenarios has a great shot at developing, though the one in the previous paragraph probably has the greatest shot.

We've also got a weak boundary that should enter the Gulf in the next couple of days. It's not projected to stick around very long -- and with the current pattern, it will be weak and won't have any sort of impetus to move it south -- but bears watching nonetheless.

With time, the odds are dropping off like a rock of another storm -- at least insofar as climatology would suggest. We probably won't see another storm of truly tropical origins this season; instead, anything that develops is likely to be the result of an upper low working its way to the surface or an old frontal boundary stalling out and spinning up a warm-core low. Another storm this year is probably likely; it just won't be for a few days. Let's just hope the overall pattern has changed by then from what it is likely to be in the short-term, lest the Florida coast be in danger once again. Anything that gets past the trough over Cuba right now would be left in a region of weak steering currents...and/or accelerated towards Florida.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Keith234
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Re: October activity [Re: Clark]
      #34008 - Mon Oct 18 2004 10:56 PM

I'm not seeing anything, developing for now at least...most of the energy seem's to be confined to the jet stream as angular momentum. I feel the system before the leeward islands has a chance for developing but again there's not just not enough latent heat materilizing. The GOM is pretty much closed off for development as strong level winds have surfaced.
On a different note, the overall amplitude in the Rosby waves is apparently decreasing, leading up to some strong trough come in the picture about 10 days from now; that's my rule at least...with the teleconnection pattern and the high latitude blocking, look for something to pop up off the Florida coast. Could there be a Halloween storm?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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