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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
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Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34554 - Tue Nov 30 2004 01:53 AM

seems to have a growing ball of convection around the center
but i dont think it will be upgraded, because the NHC missed the last four


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Bloodstar
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Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Rabbit]
      #34555 - Tue Nov 30 2004 02:52 AM

the NRL has it at 45Kt's but... still an invest....
so no upgrade ... maybe at 5am... particularly if the convection keeps growing around the center... whatever it was before, I'm pretty much convinced it's at least a sub tropical storm at this point.

Mark


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34556 - Tue Nov 30 2004 03:56 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW...WHICH IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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New Graphics [Re: danielw]
      #34557 - Tue Nov 30 2004 04:28 AM

Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but NHC needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml

I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.


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HanKFranK
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93L rolls on [Re: Jamiewx]
      #34558 - Tue Nov 30 2004 05:38 AM

93L is one of the most obvious cases of a subtropical storm in recent memory, however NHC is still fiddling around and issuing outlooks mentioning its 50mph winds and continued acquisition of tropical characteristics.. of course they're still waiting for an eye to form before it can be otto. that won't happen... the environment generating this hybrid is breaking down faster than it is transitioning.
rabbit more or less described the situation.. forget whatever NHC has to say, just read gary gray's post-analysis in a few months if you're curious, or have an interest in accurate climo records.
HF 0429z30november


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Hurricane6
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Re: 93L rolls on [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34559 - Tue Nov 30 2004 06:15 AM

I agree hankfrank....I don't know what the NHC doing?

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: 93L rolls on [Re: Hurricane6]
      #34560 - Tue Nov 30 2004 02:39 PM

looks like we are going to have unnamed subtropical storm four instead of Otto; you cant get more tropical than this without a hurricane

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Rich B
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Re: 93L rolls on [Re: Rabbit]
      #34561 - Tue Nov 30 2004 02:42 PM

Agree with you all guys, certainly think that this system could at least have hbeen classified as a subtropical system 48 hours ago. Current satellite presentation shows a well developed and well organised tropical storm. I hate to use the same example as i have in the past, but compare this system to TD4 in 2000! Need we say more

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Rabbit
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Re: 93L rolls on [Re: Rich B]
      #34562 - Tue Nov 30 2004 02:58 PM

Lets do a little comparison here:
Tropical Storm #15, current
Olga, 2001

why is the stronger of the two not classified?


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LI Phil
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Re: New Graphics [Re: Jamiewx]
      #34563 - Tue Nov 30 2004 03:36 PM

Quote:

Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but NHC needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml

I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.




The NHC should use Skeeter's Maps for their graphics!

But if I had to choose, I'd go with #3 also.

nOTTO at 11...still 93L

NRL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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Why nOTTO? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34564 - Tue Nov 30 2004 03:43 PM

ssd

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Why nOTTO? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34565 - Tue Nov 30 2004 03:54 PM

correnction:
just looked at some earlier seasons, and advisories (if classified) will come in at 4 and 10
This system seems to have a partial eye, and if it is not classified at 4pm, this is a definite indication that the NHC staff needs to be completely replaced

unnamed tropical storm


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Ricreig
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Re: New Graphics [Re: LI Phil]
      #34566 - Tue Nov 30 2004 04:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but NHC needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml

I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.




The NHC should use Skeeter's Maps for their graphics!

But if I had to choose, I'd go with #3 also.

nOTTO at 11...still 93L

NRL


What I do NOT like about #3 is that the circles represents an area of possible centers of the storm, not areas that the storm could affect with storm force winds or higher. Skeeters maps are much more informative, convey the LIKELY path, describe the probable areas affected by the storm force winds and are easy to interpret.

My second choice would be the graphics used by the NRL take into the consideration of the variable size of the wind fields in the 4 quadrants. If Skeetobite could combine the two, his and the NRL somehow, it would be perfect Neither the NRL nor Skeeter show the area of uncertainty very well, but do they need to? Can they just put 'dotted cones of uncertainty' around the official 'probable' path just like the current NHC graphical depiction?

Best of all scenereos: Use Skeetobite's graphics, superimpose the NRL wind fields and put the dotted 'cone of uncertainty' lightly around it all

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rabbit
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Re: New Graphics [Re: Ricreig]
      #34568 - Tue Nov 30 2004 07:34 PM

Otto

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LI Phil
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Pulling a Rabbit Out of the Hat! [Re: Rabbit]
      #34569 - Tue Nov 30 2004 07:47 PM

Nice job Bugs!!!

I'll be enjoying my crow with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

Nice way to end the season from hell.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Pulling a Rabbit Out of the Hat! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34570 - Tue Nov 30 2004 08:18 PM

And to top it all, he formed on the very last day of the season. 2004 just doesn't wanna stop.

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Bloodstar
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Otto was a special boy.... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34571 - Tue Nov 30 2004 08:42 PM

I am curious... hopefully NHC will explain what prompted the decision to call it Otto now, as opposed to yesterday (or even the day before)

it's more so we can understand and better make our own armchair judgements.

*grins*

...and avoid inhaling any illegal substances.


Mark (go go Falcons go!)


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LI Phil
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Re: Otto was a special boy.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34572 - Tue Nov 30 2004 09:23 PM

Quote:

I am curious... hopefully NHC will explain what prompted the decision to call it Otto now, as opposed to yesterday (or even the day before)




"However microwave data and cyclone phase analyses from the FSU/psu web Page suggest that the system has a warm core. Thus the cyclone has enough tropical characteristics to justify the issuance of tropical storm advisories at this time." From Otto TD#1

There's your answer...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
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Re: Otto was a special boy.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #34574 - Tue Nov 30 2004 10:56 PM

since they sent it straight to tropical storm... i can assure y'all that it will be post-analyzed as a subtropical storm back to the weekend at least.. possibly to friday the 26th.
be interesting if they bother to post-analyze any of the october hybrids as having been subtropical systems.. or possibly the may haiti system or the flash-in-the-pan system off the east coast a few days prior to alex. then of course there was that september system that crowded lisa, but it has already been dubbed a 'strong easterly wave' in the post-analysis of lisa (ignoring the fact that it spent much time at d2.0).
then again, they could just call it a day and wait for 2005's season to come around.
HF 2155z30november


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HanKFranK
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STORM FORUM [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34576 - Tue Nov 30 2004 11:31 PM

just added a new thread to the storm forum.. a chance to get your 2005 forecast numbers out ahead of gray. those of you who have a pair when it comes to forecasting, by all means, see if you can hit the bullseye from this far out. after thursday you'll have whatever dr. gray's forecasting crew has to offer to play your ideas off of.. so bonus respect points for stuff put there in the next 48 hours.
a'ite, the NHC has finally claimed otto, the worst season i've seen in my life is officially over, and we're taking initial bids on '05.. i guess all is right in the world of atlantic hurricanes for now.
HF 2230z30november


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