Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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seems to have a growing ball of convection around the center
but i dont think it will be upgraded, because the missed the last four
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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the has it at 45Kt's but... still an invest....
so no upgrade ... maybe at 5am... particularly if the convection keeps growing around the center... whatever it was before, I'm pretty much convinced it's at least a sub tropical storm at this point. 
Mark
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW...WHICH IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR . MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml
I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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93L is one of the most obvious cases of a subtropical storm in recent memory, however is still fiddling around and issuing outlooks mentioning its 50mph winds and continued acquisition of tropical characteristics.. of course they're still waiting for an eye to form before it can be otto. that won't happen... the environment generating this hybrid is breaking down faster than it is transitioning.
rabbit more or less described the situation.. forget whatever has to say, just read gary gray's post-analysis in a few months if you're curious, or have an interest in accurate climo records.
HF 0429z30november
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Hurricane6
Unregistered
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I agree hankfrank....I don't know what the doing?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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looks like we are going to have unnamed subtropical storm four instead of Otto; you cant get more tropical than this without a hurricane
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Agree with you all guys, certainly think that this system could at least have hbeen classified as a subtropical system 48 hours ago. Current satellite presentation shows a well developed and well organised tropical storm. I hate to use the same example as i have in the past, but compare this system to TD4 in 2000! Need we say more
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Lets do a little comparison here:
Tropical Storm #15, current
Olga, 2001
why is the stronger of the two not classified?
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml
I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.
The should use Skeeter's Maps for their graphics!
But if I had to choose, I'd go with #3 also.
nOTTO at 11...still 93L
NRL
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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ssd
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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correnction:
just looked at some earlier seasons, and advisories (if classified) will come in at 4 and 10
This system seems to have a partial eye, and if it is not classified at 4pm, this is a definite indication that the staff needs to be completely replaced
unnamed tropical storm
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Quote:
Sorry if this is the wrong place for this post, but needs customer input on one of its graphics. Take a look at this page
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphicsprototypes.shtml
I personally favor graphic 3, but let them know what you guys think. Once again, sorry if this is the wrong place for this message. Please move it if necessary.
The should use Skeeter's Maps for their graphics!
But if I had to choose, I'd go with #3 also.
nOTTO at 11...still 93L
NRL
What I do NOT like about #3 is that the circles represents an area of possible centers of the storm, not areas that the storm could affect with storm force winds or higher. Skeeters maps are much more informative, convey the LIKELY path, describe the probable areas affected by the storm force winds and are easy to interpret.
My second choice would be the graphics used by the take into the consideration of the variable size of the wind fields in the 4 quadrants. If could combine the two, his and the somehow, it would be perfect Neither the nor Skeeter show the area of uncertainty very well, but do they need to? Can they just put 'dotted cones of uncertainty' around the official 'probable' path just like the current graphical depiction?
Best of all scenereos: Use 's graphics, superimpose the wind fields and put the dotted 'cone of uncertainty' lightly around it all
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Otto
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nice job Bugs!!!
I'll be enjoying my crow with some fava beans and a nice chianti.
Nice way to end the season from hell.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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And to top it all, he formed on the very last day of the season. 2004 just doesn't wanna stop.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I am curious... hopefully will explain what prompted the decision to call it Otto now, as opposed to yesterday (or even the day before)
it's more so we can understand and better make our own armchair judgements.
*grins*
...and avoid inhaling any illegal substances.
Mark (go go Falcons go!)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I am curious... hopefully will explain what prompted the decision to call it Otto now, as opposed to yesterday (or even the day before)
"However microwave data and cyclone phase analyses from the /psu web Page suggest that the system has a warm core. Thus the cyclone has enough tropical characteristics to justify the issuance of tropical storm advisories at this time." From Otto TD#1
There's your answer...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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since they sent it straight to tropical storm... i can assure y'all that it will be post-analyzed as a subtropical storm back to the weekend at least.. possibly to friday the 26th.
be interesting if they bother to post-analyze any of the october hybrids as having been subtropical systems.. or possibly the may haiti system or the flash-in-the-pan system off the east coast a few days prior to alex. then of course there was that september system that crowded lisa, but it has already been dubbed a 'strong easterly wave' in the post-analysis of lisa (ignoring the fact that it spent much time at d2.0).
then again, they could just call it a day and wait for 2005's season to come around.
HF 2155z30november
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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just added a new thread to the storm forum.. a chance to get your 2005 forecast numbers out ahead of gray. those of you who have a pair when it comes to forecasting, by all means, see if you can hit the bullseye from this far out. after thursday you'll have whatever dr. gray's forecasting crew has to offer to play your ideas off of.. so bonus respect points for stuff put there in the next 48 hours.
a'ite, the has finally claimed otto, the worst season i've seen in my life is officially over, and we're taking initial bids on '05.. i guess all is right in the world of atlantic hurricanes for now.
HF 2230z30november
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