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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
The Arlene Situation
      #36685 - Thu Jun 09 2005 11:30 PM

5PM Update 10.Jun
Hurricane Watch extended eastward to Indian Pass, FL (Just west of Tallahassee) and winds upgraded to 65MPH.

See Clark's blog below for an updated discussion.

11:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene Strengthens some more, now Hurricane Watches are up along the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi to Panama City Beach, FL.

The windspeed is based off of aircraft recon reports, which reported around 50 knot winds near the disorganized center of Arlene. In fact they moved the center northward a bit because of relocation. So this may happen again. Vertical windshear weakened and has allowed Arlene to strengthen a bit as it entered the Gulf. And because of the close call, Arlene may squeeze itself to minimal hurricane strength, and at the very least force the Hurricane Watches along the coast. Folks in the watch area will want to be ready for a minimal hurricane.

Most of the energy is on the Northeastern side of the storm, including rainfall bands coming into Southwestern Florida now.



8:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene is now in the Gulf of Mexico, and the winds are up to 55MPH. Arlene has been spawning waterspouts near the Florida Keys, and may stir up the atmosphere enough to spawn more relatively weak waterspouts/tornadoes.

7:30 AM Update 10.Jun
Tropical Storm Arlene got slightly stronger overnight, and now Tropical Storm Watches are up from Morgan City, LA to Indian Pass Florida. The models have drifted a bit west, and this watch area is pretty solid I thnk. A good portion of the energy extends Northeastward on this system, which will bring rain to Central Florida as well.

The forecast maps below are probably too far east, but we'll wait and see today.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Arlene is still south of the west of Cuba, and not all that organized right now.

It may have a chance to strengthen just a little when it gets into the Gulf proper. However, if it gets closer to land the windshear as it approaches will likely pick up, which would keep the storm in check and stop it from growing too strong. Arlene still has a window to reach minimal hurricane strength, but I doubt it will reach that. A strong Tropical storm and rain event is most likely over the weekend.

The most recent trends have it going a little west of the prior forecast tracks, which is good news for us in Florida, as it may keep some of the rain away. However, the extent of the storm northward will still give us some of the outermost bands, as Arlene is a large storm, so it won't be rain free. Some of it is already in the Keys. The intensity is still in question, so we'll have to watch. As mentioned before the good news is that it might weaken before it gets to land a bit, from whatever it will be at the time. The 36 hour timeframe is liekly when Arlene will peak.

Skeetobite Forecast Maps: (Click Maps for larger image)


Movement likens it more from LA to the western Florida Panhandle. Centering along the Alabama and Mississippi Coastline. This could change, as I'm not all that confident in it. The trend has been to the west, after moving a bit to the east. Persistence is the key to watch here.



As this is an early June storm, they actually tend to be easier to predict, but even then, it's not all that great.

We'll be watching it closely. The area east of the Caribbean is still looking ragged and not at all likely to develop anytime soon.


Event Related Links

Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Edited by Clark (Fri Jun 10 2005 06:59 PM)


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Droop31
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Pensacola
Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: MikeC]
      #36687 - Thu Jun 09 2005 11:43 PM

The new 00Z Models are in and they have shifted somewhat more to the west it seems. Also the NHC track is in agreement with most of the models. I guess its now a wait and see whether or not she can get her act together in the gulf.

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Droop31
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Pensacola
Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: Droop31]
      #36688 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 AM

Is there a problem with the board or is nobody posting? I feel so alone

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jaybythebay
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Mobile,Al
Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: Droop31]
      #36689 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 AM

Everyone is in chatroom

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Morningstar
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Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: jaybythebay]
      #36690 - Fri Jun 10 2005 03:40 AM

With so much heat and humidity and that is creating so much scattered thunderstrom up and down the east coast, how much effect will this have on the Arlene situation? Does it have little or no effect, or does it have a greater effect on what will happen once those bands hit land and all this heat and humidity?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Arlene Update [Re: Morningstar]
      #36691 - Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM

I believe that some of the heat and humidity that you are experiencing on the Eastern Seaboard is due to an elongated trough of low pressure, feeding moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico.
Arlene is presently, 0837Z, in a small pinch of an area between the elongated trough and an encroaching ridge of higher pressure moving toward the west from the Atlantic Ocean.
Two scenarios come to mind. (disclaimer-I am not a meteorologist)
1-Arlene squeezes throught the 'pinch' area as forecast and contributes more moisture to your area.
2- Arlene absorbs, and cuts off the moisture being ejected toward the Eastern Seaboard.

That being said, the last frame of present satellite imagery ends at 08:15Z. 4:15EDT/ 3:15CDT.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Several of the channels on the SSD website are now showing a very easily seen low level circulation. Just S of the most western tip of Cuba. I believe this is the Cape San Antonio and Cape Corrientes region.
http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/cuba-map-1898.jpg

Recon has reported a 180 deg (South) wind at 45kts. 0742Z
and the last report was wind 170 deg ( SSE) at 44 kts. 0813Z

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Arlene ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/100840.shtml

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 10 2005 05:10 AM)


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Rabbit
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Reged: Sat
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Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: Morningstar]
      #36692 - Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM

winds are up and pressure is down a bit

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: Rabbit]
      #36693 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 AM

Well the first storm of the season and I am under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Watch issued from Morgan City to Indian Pass, FL.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z) [Re: danielw]
      #36694 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:30 AM

If you use Channel 2 IR, you can clearly see the low level circulation of Arlene separated from her convection. The upper level situation this morning indicates upper level trough remains to the west and north of Arlene, subtropical ridge to her northeast and building towards the SE-Carolina coast, upper level closed low underneath the ridge. My memory serves me correct; this placement of the lows & highs, will continue to build the ridge in the short term. I had a hard time finding the upper level low on satellite, so this might bear some watching later in the forecast period if it reflects down to the surface. There is a window of opportunity looking at the GOES 12 Shear analysis, but shear is expected to increase just prior to landfall according to the models. Arlene's appearance is that of a hybrid system. She continues to have a large circualtion envelope as evident on the water vapor imagery this morning. I'm not about to guess whether she'll obtain CAT1 Hurricane status; hybrid systems can often achieve that status; but no higher. Track position looks good, though I expect the center will continue to be nudged westward, a north moving system has all her weather on it's north and east flanks and Arlene is true to form.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 287
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Re: Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z) [Re: berrywr]
      #36695 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:56 AM

Landfall has also be pushed back anouther day untill Sunday meaning that this thing is really going to slow down and drop even more rain on the central gulf coat

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Key West [Re: HCW]
      #36696 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:13 AM

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html

Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 32 MPH (28 KT)
Visibility 9 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Precipitation last hour 0.05 inches
Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Relative Humidity 84%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Habana [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #36697 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:42 AM

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHA.html

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 KT) gusting to 49 MPH (43 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 83%


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Habana [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #36698 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:53 AM

NHC site says the final advisory has been issued on Arlene. I'm assuming that's a whoopsie.

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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Droop31
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Pensacola
Re: Habana [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #36699 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:57 AM

Me too. I just woke up after my 5 hour sleep to see the final advisory written on her? Am I still asleep or did I miss something.

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HanKFranK
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Re: Habana [Re: Droop31]
      #36700 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:31 AM

had me guessing for a minute too... last advisory, satelite presentation, vortex message... the evidence didn't add up.
arlene has its winds bumped up to 55mph... recon evidence is there.. but i wouldn't call that characteristic of how strong the storm is. the shear has been forecast to relax gradually as Arlene moves into the gulf, so that numbers should seem authentic as can be later today. official track is over in ms again this morning. still leaning a tad east, but it's close enough (ms gets hit, and al/fl panhandle get just as much weather). think Arlene will get stronger than officially forecast, but not by much. it's getting around the unhelpful side of the upper trough to it's west right now, and the subsidence entrainment should be slowly slacking off. enough for limited further strengthening, anyhow.
out-of-the-blue.. NHC is mentioning disturbed weather near the islands, but they could also give a shoutout to the low southeast of bermuda.. yesterday's 91L. this morning it's popping a couple of thunderstorms near the center. it's a regular TD 4 (2000) out there. i have a feeling that it won't go away until it makes the TWO highlights.
HF 1330z10june

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 10 2005 08:32 AM)


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bamffl
Unregistered




Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: MikeC]
      #36701 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:48 AM

A bit OT, but I'll ask anyway... ;-)

Last year I thought the coolest feature on this site was the chart that combined the projected path, the cone of death, and the pridicted wind speeds, all on a map that showed the roads, towns, etc. I hope that explanation is enough to jog memories. Will this type of map be back for this year? I hope so!!!


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bamffl
Unregistered




Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: bamffl]
      #36702 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:49 AM

"predicted," sorry...

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Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
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Re:Arlene Update [Re: danielw]
      #36703 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:56 AM

I just got finished watching the "path" of Arlene on our local station and I noticed this: the "brick" wall looks like it went down from 3 "^^^" to 1 "^" between us on the Florida Gulf Coast and Arlene. I can tell by the radar that we're gonna be pounded here in Lakeland in a little while, but I am wondering if it will eventually turn more NW or stay on a more NNW track keeping it closer to the Not-So-Much Sunshine State today. Any thoughts?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: bamffl]
      #36704 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:04 AM

Last year I thought the coolest feature on this site was the chart that combined the projected path, the cone of death, and the pridicted wind speeds, all on a map that showed the roads, towns, etc. Will this type of map be back for this year? I hope so!!!




Good morning all, here is the link for those maps, let me know if these were what you were referring to.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re:Arlene Update [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36705 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:07 AM

arlene is becoming interesting again...she has bumped up her winds to 55 mph with reports of gusts to 70...she has also begun to accelerate slightly and is expected to continue to speed up her trek towards the gulf states...landfall and intensity are still anyone's guess, but ima say just west of mobile bay, saturday night (late), 65 mph or so...every one from mobile east is prolly due for a decent soaking, though if she continues increasing her forward speed, it may spare most from 10+" deluges...winds shouldn't be much of a problem, but if one still does not have a roof, tarps better be secured as frimly as possible

i had a little side bet with jason that this would at some point achieve cane status, but right now this is a bet ima prepared to lose (not quite crow...but close...i'm starting early this year) too much sheer left over from an upper level trof in the GOM will prevent intensification to cane status (not that that is a bad thing)

watching TWC as i type this and it is amazing how Pensacola in many areas still looks like a war zone from Ivan...

that's about all for now...will wait and see what the 11:00 says...

everybody BUCKLE UP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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