Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Plenty of Fish in the Sea for Peter and Rose to date. Elsewhere, the remnants of Odette has a 30% redevelopment chance. 98L 70%.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Nicholas) , Major: 23 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1077 (Michael) Major: 1077 (Michael)
19.9N 64.7W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Wnw at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
21.6N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 98LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Keith234]
      #37814 - Sun Jul 03 2005 11:21 AM

Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Unregistered User]
      #37815 - Sun Jul 03 2005 11:29 AM

11:30am TWO would seem to contradict the previous anon's post

(TWO Edited)
Full Product

"Tropical depression could
form later today before the system moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula...and an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maybe maybe not
Unregistered




Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #37816 - Sun Jul 03 2005 11:47 AM

To close to land, not enough time to form. Once in the Gulf then yes

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Jamiewx]
      #37817 - Sun Jul 03 2005 11:47 AM

Would anyone like to post their thoughts on coords for the system if it does attain TD status today?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Hurric]
      #37818 - Sun Jul 03 2005 12:10 PM

That would be quite hard on account of the storm doesn't have a center.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Hurric]
      #37819 - Sun Jul 03 2005 12:12 PM

I am pretty sure it will make TD by the end of the day. Most of the global models yesterday had the system turning back to the east after crossing the central GOM, today so far the globals have shifted back to the west with all the others with a pretty tight group on TX/LA. As always I am sure they will shift again and again but I'm sticking with a LA/MS hit.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
invests and lamentations [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #37820 - Sun Jul 03 2005 01:11 PM

i'm just gonna say louisiana for now. coop probably has the right idea.. eastern part of louisiana. all of the models taking it further west have a weak, near non-entity.. the sort of thing that would get pushed around by the low-level flow and not feel the 500mb level shortwaves to the north. i do reckon it'll be deeper than.. say, 1010 or 1012 mb. my reckoning it gets 48-60hrs over the gulf, with a moderately moist atmospheric layer and the setup for a radial outflow... yes, 1010 mb is a tad high. i think recon will find a depression, and it may reach t.s. this evening before moving onshore. the yucatan is a little hilly, but with plenty of warm water on all sides the system shouldn't lose much organization. pretty sure it will be hurricane cindy when it gets to louisiana later on wednesday.
as for the playa.. weak low jetting along with a strong low level flow, low latitude.. not going to develop like i was thinking. i didn't reckon on the strongest vorticity taking a path towards/along the south american coast. sometimes the drag and differential flow around features like that can help a low close off, but in this case i think it's going to diminish the development threat for some time and delay this thing from developing over the weekend. the globals are showing a weak low or just tracking the upper part of this disturbance across the caribbean to near jamaica. i'm not sure what to make of it.. at it's current breakneck pace, even with a supportive upper pattern, it's hard to see it organizing much until it slows. the progress of the wave should start to slow tue/wed as it nears the central caribbean, with the upstream effects of the upper ridge over florida (upper weakness on it's east flank) and possibly the effects of what i think will be cindy at the time. if this one develops, it would probably be a threat to florida... so those of you who like to lament that florida is ever-threatened (you who live on a flat peninsula that sticks out into hurricane-infested waters!), keep a sideways glance on it. i'd give it 1/4 right now for development over the next 4 days.
other 'n all that, things are peachy.
HF 1803z03july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: invests and lamentations [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37821 - Sun Jul 03 2005 01:23 PM

I was not going to speak of the possiblity of "cindy" just yet but I agree with you. I saw several indications of that this morning. I have my "good" eye on it

What I really meant to say was "dennis"

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 03 2005 02:02 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: invests and lamentations [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37822 - Sun Jul 03 2005 01:34 PM Attachment (383 downloads)

Here is the latest model run's 12Z, to better show Hank's reasoning.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: maybe maybe not]
      #37823 - Sun Jul 03 2005 01:46 PM

are you forgetting Bret a few days ago? that became a storm near land
and there was a depression in 1994 (#2) that developed 15 minutes before landfall in South Carolina

also, to whoever can answer: what is the possibility of the Antilles system developing? i see what appears to be a low centered near 11N/55W that seems to be closed off, though not well organized

Edited by Rabbit (Sun Jul 03 2005 01:49 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Rabbit]
      #37824 - Sun Jul 03 2005 01:59 PM

The donut shaped cloud system is not closed, just convection equally distributed around it. If it was closed then it would be a depression, right?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Keith234]
      #37825 - Sun Jul 03 2005 02:02 PM

it lacks the organization at the moment, but i see the low-level clouds circling in all directions--even with a closed low, it may not be organized enough to be classified
my question is, does it have a chance at developing given the location and organization?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #37826 - Sun Jul 03 2005 02:36 PM

Quote:

Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?




Bastardi's column stated that the only thing that would keep 96L from reaching cat 3 status is a track over the Yucatan as opposed to a track through the Yucatan Channel.

Nevertheless, I think we'll find out rather soon just how good of a chance 96L has at reacing hurricane status.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: Kevin]
      #37828 - Sun Jul 03 2005 02:49 PM

I have observed the radar over cuba that is from the key west long range and the rain is moving southeast to west northwest (sort of), the rain over Central Florida is coming in from the southwest in an almost training effect. My understanding is that high pressure falls into low pressure, so going against dry air would be like attacking a brick wall assuming pressure gradients are far enough apart. That might have the center, if there is one, crawling up the east coast of the Yucatan as opposed to crossing it. I am not going to try to guess whether there is a closed low or open low or whatever. This is just some faint memories of flight ground school back in the early 70's and I may have all the meterology I learned backwards or not at all at this point.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: TD? and the Yucatan [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #37829 - Sun Jul 03 2005 02:57 PM

Part of the Tally AFD...

.SHORT TERM...THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY BECAUSE THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PICKED UP THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN VERY WELL. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS JUST SHOW A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING WEST INTO MEXICO, WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR A
WEAK SYSTEM STEERED BY LOW LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL BE STEERED BY A DEEPER LAYER
FLOW, WHICH WOULD TEND TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MaoMaster
Unregistered




Amazing!! [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #37830 - Sun Jul 03 2005 03:30 PM

What is really amazing is, here we are on the 4th of JULY weekend, and the tropics look more like August...even late August.

Here's the line-up:

Anyone notice the flare up east of GA/Fl...it was there yesterday and has come back, drifting north

Then there is our almost depression, which I think may become a major hurricane in the Gulf (already has 31kt plus winds in the NE semicircle...may skip TD??)...the stronger it gets, the better TLH's reasoning will pan out.

Then...system east of the Lesser Antilles, giving it a go

and...has anyone looked off Africa right now!! (and just behind and to the NE,also).

The one anomaly is the 1033 mb high...a bit unseasonally strong, if we see that in August, then forget much development east of the islands...but, it'll weaken and shift a little by then, most likely.

Anyway..who'd a thunk July 4, 2005 aould look like THIS in the tropics!! Looks like we WILL have some atmospheric fireworks this 4th.

Here we go....

MM

MM


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: errata [Re: Rabbit]
      #37831 - Sun Jul 03 2005 03:34 PM

Hey Rabbit...don't you need to fix yourumbers for August???You have TS written twice I believe....it's been that way for awhile, do I misunderstand??

About to get blasted here, will be 3rd time it has rained today...winds to 50 mph and hail expected....later!

MM


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Active [Re: MapMaster]
      #37832 - Sun Jul 03 2005 04:06 PM

Just an interesting bit from the MLB discussion here

"EXTENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WILL BE DOUBLY IMPORTANT
SINCE THE TWAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE FLOW
WILL BE BACKING TO SE...THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN WINDS/MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECM) IS IN LARGE PART
DUE TO THEIR SOLNS SHOWING A T.C. PASSING (JUST) SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BEING IN THE D5+ TIME FRAME...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING
OTHER THAN MAKE MENTION OF THIS...AS GUIDANCE WILL NO DOUBT SHOW
CHGS FROM RUN TO RUN. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH SCENARIO EVOLVE."

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! [Re: Jamiewx]
      #37833 - Sun Jul 03 2005 04:31 PM

430
WONT41 KNHC 032018
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 4 PM CDT...OR 2100Z. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

and it looks like the system east of the islands is not far behind!

--Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! [Re: recmod]
      #37834 - Sun Jul 03 2005 04:54 PM

Just saw the first NHC track forecast for TD 3...shows a track into the central/upper TX coast in 3-4 days (and a mod TS landfall). The intensity forecast looks good, although there have been occasions where storms have deepened rapidly in the Gulf. But there's not much model support for rapid strengthening at this time. Folks living in the western and central GOMex need to carefully watch this one.

More later, I'm short on time now.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 24 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 33165

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center