rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Jamiewx
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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11:30am would seem to contradict the previous anon's post
(TWO Edited)
Full Product
"Tropical depression could
form later today before the system moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula...and an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon."
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maybe maybe not
Unregistered
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To close to land, not enough time to form. Once in the Gulf then yes
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Would anyone like to post their thoughts on coords for the system if it does attain TD status today?
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Keith234
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That would be quite hard on account of the storm doesn't have a center.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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I am pretty sure it will make TD by the end of the day. Most of the global models yesterday had the system turning back to the east after crossing the central GOM, today so far the globals have shifted back to the west with all the others with a pretty tight group on TX/LA. As always I am sure they will shift again and again but I'm sticking with a LA/MS hit.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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HanKFranK
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i'm just gonna say louisiana for now. coop probably has the right idea.. eastern part of louisiana. all of the models taking it further west have a weak, near non-entity.. the sort of thing that would get pushed around by the low-level flow and not feel the 500mb level shortwaves to the north. i do reckon it'll be deeper than.. say, 1010 or 1012 mb. my reckoning it gets 48-60hrs over the gulf, with a moderately moist atmospheric layer and the setup for a radial outflow... yes, 1010 mb is a tad high. i think recon will find a depression, and it may reach t.s. this evening before moving onshore. the yucatan is a little hilly, but with plenty of warm water on all sides the system shouldn't lose much organization. pretty sure it will be hurricane cindy when it gets to louisiana later on wednesday.
as for the playa.. weak low jetting along with a strong low level flow, low latitude.. not going to develop like i was thinking. i didn't reckon on the strongest vorticity taking a path towards/along the south american coast. sometimes the drag and differential flow around features like that can help a low close off, but in this case i think it's going to diminish the development threat for some time and delay this thing from developing over the weekend. the globals are showing a weak low or just tracking the upper part of this disturbance across the caribbean to near jamaica. i'm not sure what to make of it.. at it's current breakneck pace, even with a supportive upper pattern, it's hard to see it organizing much until it slows. the progress of the wave should start to slow tue/wed as it nears the central caribbean, with the upstream effects of the upper ridge over florida (upper weakness on it's east flank) and possibly the effects of what i think will be cindy at the time. if this one develops, it would probably be a threat to florida... so those of you who like to lament that florida is ever-threatened (you who live on a flat peninsula that sticks out into hurricane-infested waters!), keep a sideways glance on it. i'd give it 1/4 right now for development over the next 4 days.
other 'n all that, things are peachy.
HF 1803z03july
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Storm Cooper
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I was not going to speak of the possiblity of "cindy" just yet but I agree with you. I saw several indications of that this morning. I have my "good" eye on it 
What I really meant to say was "dennis"
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 03 2005 06:02 PM)
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Keith234
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Here is the latest model run's 12Z, to better show Hank's reasoning.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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are you forgetting Bret a few days ago? that became a storm near land
and there was a depression in 1994 (#2) that developed 15 minutes before landfall in South Carolina
also, to whoever can answer: what is the possibility of the Antilles system developing? i see what appears to be a low centered near 11N/55W that seems to be closed off, though not well organized
Edited by Rabbit (Sun Jul 03 2005 05:49 PM)
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Keith234
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The donut shaped cloud system is not closed, just convection equally distributed around it. If it was closed then it would be a depression, right?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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it lacks the organization at the moment, but i see the low-level clouds circling in all directions--even with a closed low, it may not be organized enough to be classified
my question is, does it have a chance at developing given the location and organization?
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Kevin
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Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?
Bastardi's column stated that the only thing that would keep 96L from reaching cat 3 status is a track over the Yucatan as opposed to a track through the Yucatan Channel.
Nevertheless, I think we'll find out rather soon just how good of a chance 96L has at reacing hurricane status.
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GuppieGrouper
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I have observed the radar over cuba that is from the key west long range and the rain is moving southeast to west northwest (sort of), the rain over Central Florida is coming in from the southwest in an almost training effect. My understanding is that high pressure falls into low pressure, so going against dry air would be like attacking a brick wall assuming pressure gradients are far enough apart. That might have the center, if there is one, crawling up the east coast of the Yucatan as opposed to crossing it. I am not going to try to guess whether there is a closed low or open low or whatever. This is just some faint memories of flight ground school back in the early 70's and I may have all the meterology I learned backwards or not at all at this point.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Storm Cooper
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Part of the Tally AFD...
.SHORT TERM...THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY BECAUSE THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PICKED UP THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN VERY WELL. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS JUST SHOW A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING WEST INTO MEXICO, WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR A
WEAK SYSTEM STEERED BY LOW LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL BE STEERED BY A DEEPER LAYER
FLOW, WHICH WOULD TEND TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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MaoMaster
Unregistered
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What is really amazing is, here we are on the 4th of JULY weekend, and the tropics look more like August...even late August.
Here's the line-up:
Anyone notice the flare up east of GA/Fl...it was there yesterday and has come back, drifting north
Then there is our almost depression, which I think may become a major hurricane in the Gulf (already has 31kt plus winds in the NE semicircle...may skip TD??)...the stronger it gets, the better TLH's reasoning will pan out.
Then...system east of the Lesser Antilles, giving it a go
and...has anyone looked off Africa right now!! (and just behind and to the NE,also).
The one anomaly is the 1033 mb high...a bit unseasonally strong, if we see that in August, then forget much development east of the islands...but, it'll weaken and shift a little by then, most likely.
Anyway..who'd a thunk July 4, 2005 aould look like THIS in the tropics!! Looks like we WILL have some atmospheric fireworks this 4th.
Here we go.... 
MM
MM
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MapMaster
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Hey Rabbit...don't you need to fix yourumbers for August???You have TS written twice I believe....it's been that way for awhile, do I misunderstand??
About to get blasted here, will be 3rd time it has rained today...winds to 50 mph and hail expected....later!
MM
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Jamiewx
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Just an interesting bit from the MLB discussion here
"EXTENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WILL BE DOUBLY IMPORTANT
SINCE THE TWAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE FLOW
WILL BE BACKING TO SE...THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN WINDS/MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECM) IS IN LARGE PART
DUE TO THEIR SOLNS SHOWING A T.C. PASSING (JUST) SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BEING IN THE D5+ TIME FRAME...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING
OTHER THAN MAKE MENTION OF THIS...AS GUIDANCE WILL NO DOUBT SHOW
CHGS FROM RUN TO RUN. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH SCENARIO EVOLVE."
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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430
WONT41 KNHC 032018
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 4 PM CDT...OR 2100Z. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH
and it looks like the system east of the islands is not far behind!
--Lou
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Just saw the first track forecast for TD 3...shows a track into the central/upper TX coast in 3-4 days (and a mod TS landfall). The intensity forecast looks good, although there have been occasions where storms have deepened rapidly in the Gulf. But there's not much model support for rapid strengthening at this time. Folks living in the western and central GOMex need to carefully watch this one.
More later, I'm short on time now.
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