danielw
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Still watching the Western and Northwestern Caribbean, and the Bay of Campeche' areas for possible development.
Ed posted his 'heads up', (in the 2005 Storm Forum), for a probable "Invest" flight into the Caribbean area in less than 24 hours now.
Overnight water vapor satellite loops are showing not one , but two, mid-to-upper level lows in the Cuba-Yucatan Peninsula region.
Main vortice is rotating N of Grand Cayman at 08Z. With the Tropical Wave that Ed referred to, located SE of Grand Cayman, and adjacent to Jamaica. This vortice is moving slowly toward the WSW toward the Cozumel, MX area.
Second vortice has a more ellipitical shape and has moved from over Belize to near Merida,MX at 08Z. Outflow boundary pushed off the Yucatan into the eastern Bay of Campeche around 04Z, and has all but dissappeared at 08Z. Convection beginning to wrap around the south side of the vortice, over Belize, and back into the southern most Yucatan Penisula area.
Buoys are indicating the usual diurnal barometric changes at 08Z. Nothing spectacular noted. A few may be 1 mb lower than this time yesterday.
It will be interesting to see what happens when, and if the two upper lows meet. Especially with the tropical wave in close proximity.
0944Z update. Upper low just south of the western tip of Cuba, and north of Grand Cayman, appears to be developing high thin cirrus from south clockwise through northwest. I'm not sure if this will qualify as 'outflow', but it definitely indicates the shear is lessening overhead.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 02 2005 05:59 AM)
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Tazmanian93
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Loc: Tampa
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DW, sent you a PM. since yesterday has had this clipping Cancun and curving up into what looks like Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores @ 96 hrs. And then around that same time it looks like the one we have been watching in the E.ATL. will be on top of Jamaica around the same time
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Jul 02 2005 06:52 AM)
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danielw
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Whoa there! Don't go so fast. Here's the discussion from:
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 631 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
..SOUTHEAST
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH...ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE CARRIES A TROPICAL SYSTEM NWD EITHER NEAR OR ONTO THE CTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS ARE AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HERE...WITH THE CURIOUSLY OFFERING THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WHILE THE IS THE WEAKEST AND WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND THE ERN GOMEX SHOULD PROMOTE A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...FELT ITS STRENGTH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE CAN GLOBAL WHICH OFFERS A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT IS LESS INTENSE. REFER TO THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 02 2005 07:01 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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THe majority of the 00Z models at the link below have the " system" from the Caribbean going ashore at a location between Brownville, TX and the Western Panhandle of Florida. As many know, the actual location of going ashore changes every 12 hours as the models are fed more recent data.
Basically at this time, Saturday morning, watch the tropics cautiously. But have a good weekend too.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Please consult your local NWS site for official forecasts and statements.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 02 2005 07:15 AM)
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HanKFranK
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globals got bored with that east atlantic wave. it's still out there, still amplified; even has a small (nowhere near the overall low level vorticity it had a couple days ago, though) surface low. convection has been very sparing, though. the wave envelope was also large, and sort of disjointed. they still track it west into the caribbean, but it isn't shown developing much (although the amplification remaining on the wave makes it implicit that it could develop given the right atmopsheric profile). i still think it can do something, but my development over the weekend theory from earlier isn't holding much water.. not much at all.
doing a little better so far on the western caribbean wave. that surface low i'd envisioned isn't there either, but there is a broad, slow gyre at the low levels, adequate to extensive convection, and a good and improving environment aloft. i'm fairly sure this will develop over the next few days and make a run at the central gulf coast (read louisiana) around wednesday.
one other thing of interest... there are small rumblings of activity starting in the opposite hemisphere. it'll be a month before any of it shows up on our side of the world, but it may contribute to 'clustering' development at times this season.
HF 1631z02july
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Rich B
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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As per the latest , there appears to be signs of development between Honduras and the Caymans. In fact, i think there could be evidence of a circulation trying to become established in the vicinity of 18.8N 82.8W. Its difficult to tell, but there does seem to be at least some weak banding hinting at this on the visibles. Any other thoughts?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Cooper
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I think it has a shot at making it. To me it is looking better and better each hour on vis also.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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GuppieGrouper
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The local media keeps pointing it out and showing the steering pattern of winds over the Central Florida region. I think they are getting excited but are holding it in until the weekend is over and more people are paying attention.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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NRL now has an invest up for the Caribbean system......
it's looking better and better.....
--Lou
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Orlando, FL
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Some of the news stations are talking about the SW steering flow across Florida that we have had for the last two weeks or so. Their implying that if this wave in the carribean developes, it will get caught up in the flow, and push it across Florida. I think that's a bit going out on a limb this early, but who knows. I really hope it doesn't end up doing that, we have had enough rain. 
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Storm Cooper
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SAT 02 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-036
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 03/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 03/1645Z
D. 19.0N 86.0W
E. 03/1830Z - 04/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 04/18OOZ
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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HanKFranK
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if i was in louisiana, i'd start contingency planning for a hurricane around wednesday. got a hunch that this thing will develop, cross the corner of the yucatan, and deepen significantly in the gulf early next week. can't go further than that.. do think that this is a named system inside 36 hrs. recon will probably fixing a center tomorrow.
as far as the system posing a threat to fla.. nah. 500mb ridge is building right over the state, weakness in the subtropical ridge axis will be 90-95w around the middle of next week. one of the shortwaves on the upper trough to the north will probably grab it and start it's recurvature around 27n or so.
as if it needed some criticism to show signs of life, the wave east of the islands is perking up today since my comments earlier. the sw-ne double-barreled profile it had last week is less strung out, and potentially going to focus on the convective v in the that it's made. a vortex will probably start to tighten there, nearing barbados and the lower lesser antilles sunday. upper environment is ok, but a lot of saharan desert air in the area. it's broad and in a subsidence environment, so it won't spin up quickly if it does. unlikely we'll see anything out of this sooner than early next week. the models tracking the wave discretely as far as 80w makes me think it isn't going away.. even if it doesn't develop.
less prominent wave near 30w. eastpac disturbance south of the gulf of tehuantepec making a showing. active july pattern in the atlantic.
HF 2124z02july
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Storm Cooper
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I not sure about it getting that strong but I agree about LA.... to the MS/AL border for landfall.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Clark
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I'm with HF on this one, though I don't think I'm willing to go that far on intensity just yet. Organization is improving, though the area of low pressure in the region is still rather broad. Look for something somewhere near 18N/83W (as of the time of this post) if anything is going to happen in short order. It does have a good bit going for it: favorable upper level conditions and a projected path across the warmest & highest heat content waters in the entire basin (particularly the central Gulf). The 850mb signature is fair to decent, getting a bit better concentrated with time, with the convection showing signs of trying to congeal into banding features -- and, most importantly, showing signs of persisting.
A couple of weak upper-level lows are located to the northwest of the storm, one along the western tip of Cuba and another along the northwest coast of the Yucutan, but are progressing to the northwest themselves and should not play a major inhibiting role on devleopment (unless the disturbance tries ingesting one). If anything, they may be just far enough away to aid in outflow while providing a divergent flow over the storm (all the better to enhance convection). Land will be the biggest factor in the short-term, as the Yucutan lies directly in its path. It could miss and go through the Yucutan channel, but that doesn't look likely at this time.
There's nothing out there to suggest an impact for Central/South Florida, but the entire northern Gulf coast should watch this one over the weekend. The system should move towards the west-northwest to northwest in the short-term, with a turn more towards the north likely once it enters the Gulf. A shortwave trough is approaching the Gulf coast, currently located in central Texas/Oklahoma, but may pass by before the disturbance gets there and only affect the disturbance slightly (intensity and track-wise). After reaching the northern Gulf coast -- in what state of development I'm not sure, but in at least some identifiable state -- the disturbance should make a hard right, likely affecting much of the southeast. Upper & mid-level winds are moving at a good clip across the U.S. now, a stark departure from early last month, meaning an Alberto (2000) or Georges (1998) scenario isn't terribly likely should that path begin to materialize.
Conditions are favorable for something to happen, but I would like to see a bit more model support before going gung-ho about it all. Needless to say, those between Houston and Panama City should be watching this one, as it could throw a monkey wrench into the return travel home after the 4th of July holiday.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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schmoo
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should New Orleans get any weather out of this system?
We have been soooo dry!
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Lysis-in-Texas
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Clark... what do you mean by "alberto"?
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FlaMommy
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ok with the post i saw from guppie...do u think that florida will see any of this storm?...if so what parts....thanks becky 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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GuppieGrouper
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Please do not plan your preparations around my posts as I am no meterologist. I love to follow the storms and read the professional opinions on here. If the storm gets close to Florida's West Coast we will see some higher tides and some rain squalls. I have little to no information. I just recall from last years models that the first models on any storm were always too far to the left or the right of the early predictions. The rule of Thumb is to be prepared for the worst.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sat Jul 02 2005 06:05 PM)
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HanKFranK
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think clark meant alberto 1994.. the tropical storm that rained 20" on the alabama town i was living in at the time. it was cut off from the westerly flow and just kinda meandered around after going inland... very bad flooding on the flint river and sw georgia in general. another such rainy, cut-off storm would be allison 2001.
as far as florida goes.. i'll re-emphasize.. unless you're in the panhandle i wouldn't worry much about the nw caribbean disturbance. the ridge building over the state should steer the developing system nw into the gulf and north towards the central gulf coast. if it goes into the lower part of florida, i'll pick up the beer tab for the nation of ireland for the next year, aite?
interesting that the two at 5 is still ignoring the wave nearing 50w. i'm guessing that it will be invest quality tomorrow or monday.
HF 2258z02july
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FlaMommy
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oh no...im not saying that by no means..i understand that your not a met...but i was just curious considering the fact that you are a guru and have some knowledge in this area...
im keeping you that on the tab;)....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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