GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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It is almost worth a trip to Ireland haa haa. But seriously, I think I am seeing two areas spinning unless it is optical illusion. I was wondering if we would wake up in the morning and find that the vortex relocated itself during the night. Just thinking. (wet firecracker in with a load of dynamite)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I have to agree with HF on strength with this one, it's heading into increasingly warmer SST's with decreasing shear 200 to 850 hPa shear. The only limiting factor to the strength would be as Clark said the chance of it hitting land. Climatology has it going through the Yutacan Channel. Though the recurving track is not readily supported by the latest model runs, but I'll go with because I like the idea of the storm riding the periphery of the subtropical ridge.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Big tk
Unregistered
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That's not a EYE is it? Zoom in [image]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html[/image]
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Keith234
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No, of course not  What you're probably seeing is some low toped level cumulus clouds associated with the building of the Upper level feature to the surface.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The WV Loop is really good right now.
High level clouds in and around the W Caribbean system. Diurnal convection in E and S quadrants.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
The wave that Hank mentioned earlier just east of the Lesser Antilles is showing some flareup. Both in size and intensity.
Located near 13 N and 50 W.
Is this the "playa" wave that Steve refered to earlier this week? was progging it to pass NE of the Lesser Antilles.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Playa as in refrence to a beach (in spanish), or in refrence to "player?"  I remember seeing something a couple days back, but now the /AVN ain't to enthusiastic for developingt that feature.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
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Quote:
Playa as in refrence to a beach (in spanish), or in refrence to "player?" I remember seeing something a couple days back, but now the /AVN ain't to enthusiastic for developingt that feature.
Well, Steve had spelled it as 'playa'. Reading, storm that was playing around. At least I'm fairly sure that's what Steve meant. Especially since it's on again and off again on the models.
BTW: Heads up to folks downstream of the MCS moving through New Orleans right now. Lots of wind damage reports (trees down), from parishes in LA, and a few counties in MS.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Uh...thanks. Slightly off topic, there seems to be a mesocyclone right now over New Orleans as Danny indicated. Looks pretty bad..
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
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QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 625 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
DAY 3...
..GULF COAST LA/MS APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SPREAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.12Z BRINGS HVY AMNTS INTO LA BY END OF PERIOD WHILE 12Z TARGETS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MANUAL SLOWED SYSTEM SPEED SOMEWHAT AND KEPT MAXIMUM INITIALLY ACROSS SE LA.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 143 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
VALID JUL 02/1200 UTC THRU JUL 06/0000 UTC
..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE 12Z IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH THE 00Z RUN BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE THE WAVE MORE SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z IS ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK WAVE INTO THE GOMEX AROUND THE PERIMETER OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE HAS MUCH WEAKER WAVE THAT ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH LOOK MORE LIKE THE THAN THE ...BUT NEITHER VORT MAX IS AS STRONG AS THE NAM. THE CANADIAN IS CLOSE TO THE WHILE THE UKMET TAKES THE SAME DIRECTION BUT SHIFTED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE RECOMMENDING A PATH SIMILAR TO THE BUT NOT AS STRONG.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
All of these products are from previous model runs and are subject to change. Please consult your local NWS office for official forecast and advisories~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 03 2005 02:08 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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So is it an eye wall developing? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Clark
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Whoops -- didn't mean Alberto 2000 -- meant Alberto 1994. Sorry 'bout that.
actually.. july 3rd was the day alberto came in, 11yrs ago. it was sort of cool, as i'd just moved to alabama.. to experience the weak rainy storm... except it came back on the 5th and didn't go away for days. the lake we'd been in a cabin by the last week of june had a dam break and went bye bye... in all 32 people died in the flooding. that was a mean little storm. HF 0611z03july
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 03 2005 05:19 AM)
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Clark
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No -- what you are seeing is an array of convection around an upper-level low off of the coast of Cuba, the one noted in my discussion from earlier today. It has an ominous look to it, but it's nothing at all -- really.
The real action is due south of there by about 500 miles, east-northeast of Belize. It is starting to become even better organized -- funny how the s from the keep emphasizing that with more and more superlatives, I guess -- and I think we may have another tropical cyclone on our hands before Sunday ends. Bets? Better than even odds at this point, I'm afraid, assuming it stays offshore long enough to get going. The better developed the system at landfall, the better of a shot it has at doing something in the Gulf. No models are really picking up on a tropical cyclone in the Gulf per se, but they don't always excel at this task.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Posted earlier, ok, too much going on today to keep up, sorry. Buoy data from Station 42056 - Yucatan Basin, Wind and Waves basically doubled throughout the day.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Clark
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No problem -- I understand entirely!
My biggest goal, particularly after last season, is to keep there from being alarm amongst the masses. There are so many people who were affected by TSFH (TM LI Phil) last year that anything out there is going to cause a reaction -- particularly when the media in central Florida picks up on it. All too often, a convective mass out in the ocean is not going to form into something. They should all be watched, sure, but sometimes everyone (myself included) can get a little too carried away doing so -- not to mentioned worn out in a hurry!
It's in picking out those that have a better chance of developing and focusing on those, then watching them as they develop -- or don't develop -- through time. Not everyone gets it right all the time, as we all can attest to, but the key is in watching the regions and waves that have a chance to develop...and not getting excited about everything else. I'd love to "wavemonger" with the best of them -- but you just can't do it when so much is on the line.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Clark your goal to keeping the masses from being alarmed with unwarranted words is admirable. As one of the premier posters on this site your words do carry more weight than those of others.
Most everyone has the urge to speculate and monger and of course the earlier in development you call it the better when it works out. This too is enjoyable, especially when the ideas presented are backed up with reasons why the poster thinks a scenario will occur. Post that include ideas to back them up can be educational to those observing what might happen and what actually does happen.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Western Carib looking more more concentrated on IR this morning. I can't wait to see the visibles. The sounding even more like they feel this one is going to develop.
The ULL exiting off west tip of cuba is moving NW. I would think carib disturbance will follow it. The High ridging to the NE should help keep it away from Florida. Let someone else have the rains for a change.
Hurric
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Just had a quick look at the visibles, and it seems as if this disturbance is certainly getting its act together. Think we will see it classified today when the recon gets there, probably as a TD, but possibly as a TS. Looks as if the centre could track across the tip of the Yucatan or through the Yucatan channel. This would mean less time overland / interaction with land, and allow more time for development - especially in the favourable conditions expected.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Maybe maybe not
Unregistered
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Wrong, wrong, not today.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Convection is increasing in all quads. , as the storm becomes a more symetrical warm core system. At this current track it would end up traversing the Yucatan Peninsula, and putting in the BOC-unless recurvature occurs. The fact is though the subtropical ridge has not really built over Florida, and the disturbance is too far away for any interaction with the shortwaves over the southeastern united states. Shear and dry air will be invading the BOC in the next 36 hours, so that could throw a b monkey wrench in the idea of a 'strong storm.' I don't believe the has ran any new model runs as of 10'o clock...at least they have not been forwarded to my program.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Would you care to enlighten us as to why this system will not be upgraded to TD status today? I'm always willing to share ideas and learn something new.
ED
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