Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Quote:
When is the next recon ETA at the storm?
(/me playing Mr. Links today...) NOAA makes the Plan of the Day (and plan of tomorrow) available through http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml. The current plan is:
Code:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT WED 06 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-040
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z A. O8/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0404A B. NOAA9 0504A
C. 07/1430Z C. 07/1800Z
D. 19.0N 77.4W D. NA
E. 07/1700Z - 08/0030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000-45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 08/0000Z A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0604A B. NOAA2 0704A
C. 07/1800Z C. 08/0430Z
D. NA D. 20.4N 79.8W
E. NA E. 08/0530Z - 08/0900Z
F. 24,000 T0 30,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE
A. 08/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0804A
C. 08/0800Z
D. 21.1N 80.9W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A G-IV
FLIGHT FOR 09/0000Z.
So it looks like the next recon fix is by flight 1, and is at 1800Z (line A), or 2 p.m. EDT. The plane will be on site at 1700Z (1 p.m. EDT) and stay there until 08/0030Z (8:30 p.m. today EDT, line E). Unless I'm reading this totally wrong 
Edited to put in and discuss today's plan instead of tomorrow's 
Jax Chris
Edited by Jax Chris (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:35 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:
* ' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.
* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.
* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the MM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.
More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.
When you say futher and further east,does that mean you think S FL maybe more under the gun?Also the eye is north of Jamaica,not really THAT close. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_satellite2.asp
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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Wondering - When hits Cuba heading at an angle, would one expect the land/mountains cause it to bend more toward the West, North or have no influence on the general direction?
Thanks
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daviking
Unregistered
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Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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Those new models runs coming out are a little too close to the coast for comfort.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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If goes over the mountainous...is that a word?...will have an effect on the intensity.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
Accuweather is still sticking to its guns and saying Mississippi.
well, once the 12Z model runs come in, they will probably reconsider...maybe the model will be correct all along?
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Pensacola101
Unregistered
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People here in Pensacola are going nuts with this thing. We have always been around the center of the model tracking, but it is just a hurry up and wait type situation. I hate to wish this thing on someone else, but really tore us up in Sept of last year.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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it's always hotter in July and August in the Gulf...than in September...when hurricanes usually hit...
Camille hit in August....
if Gulf Temps are in the 90's....does that translate to a hyper-cane....I mean, not to be an alarmist or anything....but 200 mph winds are possible when the Gulf Temps are that warm....
any feed back on this will be appreciating....I'm just running with possibilities righ now...
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st.pete boy
Unregistered
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The entire west coast of Florida (up through north of Tampa) can expect tropical storm force winds and flooding surge if the current track verifies...
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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if the shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.
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mom2als
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Kissimmee, Fl
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Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that! 
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 184
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Yeah he is pretty adament with that..MS/LA landfall...believe he's going with UKMET which is the outlier & still persistant on that course.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.
Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps
Go to:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
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bob895
Unregistered
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If gulf temps are this warm this thing has a chance to be an absolute monster
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
If you click on forcast points, the eye matches perfevtly
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Not to blow my own horn(I know that that is not what this forum is about)But is seems that what I feared a couple of days ago MAYBE happening.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Nah...hair to the north.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
if the shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.
Actually , that might be good in that it would imply convergence by the models..
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daviking
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.
Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps
Go to:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.
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