BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I'm not a mod, but have been hanging out here for a few years, and based on experience I can give you a few pointers.
Register (the mods can't PM you with the rules if you don't).
This is a family board, no obscenities.
Personal attacks are not tolerated.
Bashing official sources (like the ) or authorities (such as local EOC) is not tolerated.
This is a privately run board and although I do feel that the mods are very tolerant, you will not be allowed to say whatever you want. And they have ways to block you completely, even as an anon poster, so don't push it.
But that said, this is a great site, and everyone's opinion, as long as it is on topic, is welcomed.
Bill
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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TWC just mentioned that July has never seen a Cat 4 make landfall in the US. They also stated that they do not expect to remain a Cat 4 for landfall. Is there any insight being offered for this? I recall reading about SST in the gulf being fairly high for July.
After being active here last year during our fun times in Florida, I can honestly say I'm not looking forward to the first dry run of boarding up the house.
Thanks.
--Tom
Edited by tpratch (Fri Jul 08 2005 03:09 AM)
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Quote:
I'm not a mod, but have been hanging out here for a few years, and based on experience I can give you a few pointers.
Register (the mods can't PM you with the rules if you don't).
This is a family board, no obscenities.
Personal attacks are not tolerated.
Bashing official sources (like the ) or authorities (such as local EOC) is not tolerated.
This is a privately run board and although I do feel that the mods are very tolerant, you will not be allowed to say whatever you want. And they have ways to block you completely, even as an anon poster, so don't push it.
But that said, this is a great site, and everyone's opinion, as long as it is on topic, is welcomed.
Bill
Also, if you don't check every few seconds, you miss all the crud that gets modded out!
BTW 60 users and 135 guests and the board is humming along. Good work everyone at CFlH!
Not much good info in the 11PM discussion. It's a bunch of "we don't know anything more than 6 hours ago"
Edited by Doombot! (Fri Jul 08 2005 03:14 AM)
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XLM
Unregistered
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I didn't say any obscenities, or personal attacks, Im just giving my opinion about this amazing hurricanes in the lasts months, that maybe God is not happy with us, that's all, I dont see why the mods want to delete my posts, If you want to ban me for this go ahead..
Wasnt' your post, it got killed when we had to remove a series by accident, still it is time to enter into unregistered lockdown.
Edited by MikeC (Fri Jul 08 2005 03:17 AM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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080310
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AT 07/2314Z...AND ALSO
REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF HAD DROPPED TO 951 MB.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THIS AND ON 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND ...DENNIS IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAY HAVE
UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE 9 N MI WIDE EYE SEEN EARLIER IS NOW 16 TO 20 N MI WIDE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 950 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AN ESTIMATE AND
COULD WELL BE TOO HIGH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310-315 AT ABOUT 13 KT. DATA FROM A
TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER
FLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO
PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR
ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE
UKMET TAKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN
TAKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. THE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT LEFT FROM
ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER. AS
DENNIS HAS NOT YET DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE
NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST
36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT...WEST...AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS
COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE
CURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS
LAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL DECREASE AS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM
TO WEAKEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.9N 77.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 79.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.0N 81.2W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 83.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.8N 84.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/0000Z 38.5N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND
--------------------
Jara
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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It appears we here in Peninsular Florida can calm down a bit.
--------------------
Jara
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Let me summarize what I think the 11 pm discussion should say...
Cat 4. Bad... Really Bad...
Bad WIinds, Bad Surges and just plain old BAD
and you probably need to get out of its way if you are going to be anywhere within 100 miles of the eye wall...
forecaster
Frank P
$$
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
It appears we here in Peninsular Florida can calm down a bit.
What makes you think that???
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Jul 08 2005 03:20 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Clark...JK mentioned earlier (as did others) that the models did not have the dropsonde data from today's recon. So my question is this: I know they shifted it just a tad west...but do you think that they are giving the models less credence than they would if it had all the data in? Or are the models picking up on something else, like the ridge of HP not retreating as far east as thought?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Let me summarize what I think the 11 pm discussion should say...
Cat 4. Bad... Really Bad...
Bad WIinds, Bad Surges and just plain old BAD
and you probably need to get out of its way if you are going to be anywhere within 100 miles of the eye wall...
forecaster
Frank P
$$
LOL
I forget, didn't we actually have a forcaster use "hunker down" last year as well? Might have been Jeanne, maybe - I seem to recall at least one off-the-wall comment tossed into an update.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Note: These talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.
You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.
Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.
Hopefully this will only last a short time.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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11:00 pm slight shift to the west of about ~.5 from 5:00 pm... lets see where the trends goes at 5 am tomorrow.... every .5 is critical for the MS, AL and Fl Panhandle relative to your proximity to the eye wall... however, I still feel the Panhandle is going to get the brunt of this beast... as it stands now
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Don Gremaise
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Thank you Mike !!
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Good point! The mods here not only do a good job, they do it very quickly!
Bill
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Quote:
Thank you Mike !!
Ditto.
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Brad Shumbera
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
It appears we here in Peninsular Florida can calm down a bit.
What makes you think that???
DATA FROM A -AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO
PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR
ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE UKMET TAKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN
TAKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN.
The Discussion points to some High Pressure still being in place over FL. I am not saying all clear, but the panic should calm down some. Keep and eye but I think this Discussion was somewhat promising for us here on the Central to South FL.
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Jara
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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yeah - the NE wall seems to be as long as 140 miles from the eye.. Orlando is about 80 nautical miles from the coast.. so if is at least 60 nautical miles west of Tampa as he heads up the Gulf, Orlando should experience just a rainy (2 - 3 +/- inches) and mildly windy (40 mph +/-) Saturday at worst case.
Disclaimer - I'm not a met
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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What happens to when it makes landfall in Cuba is the big question.How much will it weaken?What course will it take after it goes over the island?That is what I am waiting for.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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is that something coming off of texas? 
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