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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength
      #41021 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:27 PM

8:45pm -- Dennis has taken a turn to the north over the past couple of hours, something that will have to be monitored to see if it lasts. See Thomas Giella's and Clark Evans' latest blog entries below for reasoning as to why the recent deepening of the storm may be directly related to this recent turn.




The above image is from the NASA MODIS Gallery. They are updated infrequently, but have very very high resolution images. Desktop Wallpaper worthy quality.

The new forecast calls for a Category 4 landfalling system. The only thing that could perhaps weaken it is slightly cooler water over the Gulf near the coast, assuming it stays over the water long enough there. Excessive storm surge is possible, upwards of 10-20ft in some locations, if the forecast verifies.

Jim Williams is doing an audio show tonight over at Hurricane City; if you have RealPlayer, you can listen in with this link.



It is deepening fairly rapidly, and there is nothing in the short term to keep it from doing so a bit more. Track is still towards Pensacola tomorrow evening, but all of the warning area needs to prepare for a potentially Category 4 storm making landfall.

Chat is open tonight, click here or on the link to the left to get there.


Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Dennis
MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images
Google Map Plot of Dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis


98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL will be streaming video over hte internet from 5:30-6:30 PM tonight and then from 10PM until the storm is over. This is flhurricane met blogger Jason Kelley's TV Station.

Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam

Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Suncam.tv's collection of Dennis cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Weathervine.com Storm Chasing
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here
Key West Webcams
New Orleans webcams
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM
Pensacola Beach Webcam
Beachview webcams from near destin/PCB

Police Scanner Streams
Mobile Police - Mobile, AL

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: MikeC]
      #41028 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:31 PM

they should be prepared already. but if not they bettere get to work right away

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AndyG
Weather Watcher


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41031 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:39 PM

Watching both Key West long range and Tampa long range, it looks like Dennis is moving almost due N now.

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: AndyG]
      #41033 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:41 PM

it does maybe it is just a jog

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NewWatcher
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: AndyG]
      #41034 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:41 PM

Hard for me to tell for sure, but man it really looks impressive on the last few sat. images

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ShanaTX
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: MikeC]
      #41035 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:41 PM

Dennis sure reorganized in a hurry! I hope everyone in the path is prepared and done their best to be safe.

Maybe the older topic should be locked now? It would be less confusing during the fast and furious postings... just a suggestion


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: NewWatcher]
      #41036 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:42 PM

it sure does it is going to be really strong

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javlin
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41037 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:44 PM

NLU I have been asking myself the same question all day.The models are continuing to go W some as far as NO.The Civil Defense of Harrison County has yet to issue any and I mean any kind of statement yet today.While the two counties one to E and one to W have.They say they are waiting till 7:00PM this evening to make any hard decisions(Casino's?).While people hear that the Fl Panhandle and that to the E is the main target.

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41038 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:47 PM

Found this on Weatherunderground, from their Director of Meteorology Dr. Jeff Masters. I do not want to be an alarmist, but given the nature of the situation, I wanted to post this for our Alabama/Panhandle posters....

I urge all residents of the Gulf Coast in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle who were undecided about whether to evacuate to get out now!

Dennis continues to break the rules for what is usual for a hurricane. In my previous blog entry, I wrote that it is very unusual for a major hurricane to regain its former intensity after a long crossing over land. However, Dennis is poised to do just that.

Aircraft recon just measured a central pressure of 947 mb at 5:15pm, an 11 mb drop in 90 minutes--a rarely observed rate of intensification. The eyewall shrank from 15 miles in diameter to 12 miles, and the satellite presentation confirms that the storm is undergoing explosive deepening. Dennis will surely be a strong Category 4 storm in about 6 hours, when the winds have time to catch up to the pressure falls, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Satellite imagery shows an outer wind maximum is probably forming, meaning Dennis will enter another eyewall replacement cycle tonight after this phase of explosive deepening is over.

The current track of the storm is more WNW than NW, and is likely a temporary wobble similar to two others this storm has already done. I expect Dennis will shortly resume its previous northwest track. The most recent wobble occurred as the storm was doing its previous rapid intensification cycle just before it hit Cuba. The current wobble is enough to probably spare Panama City the worst of the hurricane, but increases the danger to Mobile. A direct hit by Dennis just west of Mobile could easily challenge Hurricane Andrew as the most expensive hurricane in history. Dennis's storm surge of 15-20 feet would push into Mobile Bay and cause tens of billions in destruction. Even if Dennis hits further east near Pensacola, as I still expect, the damage will surpass Ivan's $13 billion and Charley's $14 billion to make Dennis the second costliest hurricane on record.

Dr. Jeff Masters


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41040 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:49 PM

Dr. Masters will be on NHCWX radio tonight I think at 9 pmEDT live

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HanKFranK
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not good [Re: javlin]
      #41041 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:50 PM

in the words of the homestar runner... oh cwap. i've been gone six hours, and the pressure has dropped 20 mb. i wasn't sure it would spin back up this fast. maybe it'll go through an ERC or shelf waters will mitigate whatever strength it gets to before this time tomorrow.. but this is going to be a heck of a blow.
HF 2349z09july


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MichaelA
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #41043 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:51 PM

Dennis is over the Gulf Loop Current which is very warm. SSTs are lower ahead of the storm as it approaches the NE Gulf coast. I'm expecting Dennis will be a strong Cat 3 or minimal Cat 4 as it makes landfall in the FL panhandle or Alabama (Mobile Bay).

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: MichaelA]
      #41044 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:56 PM

OK...can anybody verify this...the escambia county emergency new conference on TV in pcola just stated that the NHC has informed them that Dennis is now a Cat 4....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Chat [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41045 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:56 PM

is anyone going to the storm chat link is on the left

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BillD
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: NewWatcher]
      #41046 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:57 PM

The last few visible images are incredible, I know that the shadows in the evening enhance the effect, but just check out any visible from about 22:00Z on... There is no doubt this is a major hurricane.

As far as the wobbles, I've been watching the Tampa radar, I saw the West wobble, and the North wobble, but now it looks like NW again. We need to wait overnight I think to see if the NNW track works out. But so far the NHC has been right on track.

Bill


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hurricane_run
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7 pm [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41047 - Sat Jul 09 2005 06:58 PM

from the 7 pm Repeating the 7 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 947 mb.
recon flight enroute to the storm


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stormchazer
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: javlin]
      #41049 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:02 PM

The NHC has had a good grip on Dennis thus far and they do have synoptic reasoning, along with climatology and experience to back their track.

Remember though, the NHC harps on the public all the time about the cone and not fixating on the line. Both MS and Alabama are well within the cone and should be very vigilant and doing whatever necessary to protect life and property.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


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NW Movement [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41050 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:04 PM Attachment (187 downloads)

Here's a rough unscientific chart I put together showing the movement of Dennis during each 6 hour interval since July 5th. As you can see, historical movement over the last 2.5 days has been pretty much NW (a heading of 315 degrees). You will notice however that in 2 of last 3 intervals (i.e. today), movement was actually at a heading slightly greater than 315 degrees, perhaps signaling that gradual N/NW turn folks have been forecasting.

This might be hard to read, so I've attached it in a .txt format as well. Hope this is helpful.

TIME/DATE LAT LONG LAT CHG LNG CHG HEADING
11p 7/4 12.5 63.1 -- -- --
5a 7/5 12.6 64.4 0.1 1.3 274.4
11a 7/5 13.3 66.6 0.7 2.2 287.7
5p 7/5 14.2 68.3 0.9 1.7 297.9
11p 7/5 14.6 69.2 0.4 0.9 294.0
5a 7/5 15.1 70.3 0.5 1.1 294.4
11a 7/6 15.4 71.5 0.3 1.2 284.0
5p 7/6 16 72.5 0.6 1 301.0
11p 7/6 16.5 73.4 0.5 0.9 299.1
5a 7/7 17 74.6 0.5 1.2 292.6
11a 7/7 18 75.6 1 1 315.0
5p 7/7 19 76.6 1 1 315.0
11p 7/7 19.9 77.6 0.9 1 312.0
5a 7/8 20.7 79.1 0.8 1.5 298.1
11a 7/8 21.4 79.9 0.7 0.8 311.2
5p 7/8 22.6 81.1 1.2 1.2 315.0
11p 7/8 23 82.1 0.4 1 291.8
5a 7/9 23.9 82.9 0.9 0.8 318.4
11a 7/9 24.7 83.8 0.8 0.9 311.6
5p 7/9 25.7 84.6 1 0.8 321.3


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BillD
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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: pcola]
      #41051 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:05 PM

This is from the 7:00 PM advisory. They are only saying it MIGHT become a cat 4.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT Dennis HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES Dennis A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND Dennis COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis Regains Category 3 Strength [Re: BillD]
      #41052 - Sat Jul 09 2005 07:07 PM

not good

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