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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #42628 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:03 PM

(Had to do it)

Or what about that great song from back in the day from the skating rink.

Ophelia, you're breaking my heart
You're shaking my confidence daily
Oh, Ophelia, I'm down on my knees
I'm begging you please to come home

Ophelia, you're breaking my heart
You're shaking my confidence daily
Oh, Ophelia, I'm down on my knees
I'm begging you please to come home
Come on home

Making love in the afternoon with Ophelia
Up in my bedroom (making love)
I got up to wash my face
When I come back to bed
Someone's taken my place

Ophelia, you're breaking my heart
You're shaking my confidence daily
Oh,Ophelia, I'm down on my knees
I'm begging you please to come home
Come on home

Jubilation, she loves me again,
I fall on the floor and I'm laughing,
Jubilation, she loves me again,
I fall on the floor and I'm laughing

The hottest songs from Simon and Garfunkel

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #42629 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:03 PM

If we get to Wilma, we will be screaming!

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Behind Emily [Re: MikeC]
      #42630 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:09 PM

EXCELLENT, BEAUTIFUL!!!! Thanks, those are great!!!!! The only option I would add is the ability to select certain storms from any given year. 04, 03 do slow the system down a bit. Or you can leave it and I can upgrade LOL

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed

Edited by Tazmanian93 (Tue Jul 12 2005 10:15 PM)


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 60
Re: Behind Emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42631 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:17 PM

So where does everyone think all these storms are goin?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Behind Emily [Re: bn765]
      #42632 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:18 PM

Left

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42633 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:19 PM

Can anyone tell me what that clockwise rotation just above Emily might be? I have been watching it today and I have noticed that as it started moving wsw, Emily started moving away from it and headed south...right now it looks like the system behind her is going to further south onto land...I really can not see her moving north at this time from what I can see on the water vapor views...IMHO

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Behind Emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42634 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:21 PM

Quote:

Left



Right!

--------------------
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Behind Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42635 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:26 PM

Emily is goin to Cancun and then South Padre.
She's a party girl.


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Behind Emily [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #42636 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:27 PM

with her current heading....can you tell me how that will happen?

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....

Edited by firestar_1 (Tue Jul 12 2005 10:29 PM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Behind Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42637 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:29 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42638 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:29 PM

Could one of the Met's talk about convergence divergence and whether or not that would apply to the above question? I recall reading about this along time ago. I think if the pressure system north of Emily had prevailing UL winds this would initiate a negative torque?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Behind Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42639 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:29 PM

Quote:

with her current heading....cna you tell me how that will happen?



He was joking, hence the wink emoticon.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Behind Emily [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #42640 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:31 PM

seeing how this is 2005 and the season is young....anything is possible...

--------------------
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42641 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:33 PM

Looks like a mid/upper level feature as described in the Tropical Weather Discussion from NHC:
Quote:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 19N71W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N74W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC CONTINUES TO DIG S FROM A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW
WELL N OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO 23N74W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N66W TO BEYOND 32N61W.
A SECOND MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N44W S TO 29N47W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 52W...THUS ONLY STRATOCUMULUS
LOW CLOUDS ARE APPARENT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
E ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 29N12W SW TO NEAR 16N40W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 30W.




It does appear to be driving Emily on a more southerly path at the moment.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42642 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:34 PM

firestar_1, I'm not sure I'm following what you're talking about. I can't see any feature directly above (by that, I assume you mean north of) Emily on any satellite channel; there is a ridge of high pressure aloft, but that doesn't appear to be moving to any large degree.

As an aside, the earlier west-southwest motion appears to have leveled out somewhat. On this path, Trinidad and Tobago would be most in line for this storm, keeping it just offshore of the S. American coastline...akin to Ivan, albeit much, much weaker. NHC 11pm advisory due out in the next 10-15 minutes; expect some advisory to be posted for Trinidad at that time.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Behind Emily [Re: firestar_1]
      #42643 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:35 PM

Emily is acting very strange,not sure what will happen to her now.If she gets back on course it would be a problem for the Yucatan and then Texas.The wave after that,if it developes could be more of a problem for the east coast from Florida to the Carolinas.We are all seeing history here folks.Amazing!

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Behind Emily [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42644 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:36 PM

Totally understand the wink...but I got another model plot to look at... ...anyway since recon is scheduled for the morning, maybe they can go ahead and check the next system...since Emily will be over land by then.....

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: MichaelA]
      #42645 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:38 PM

I think Emily may be bottoming out now, and if she can lift her head up she may be able to pull up just in time. IR loop shows building convection and evidence of lower level turning (a guess) since the deep reds are showing up near the pivot point. Looks like she's slowed a bit as well., although that might not be relected in the 11pm advisory.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42646 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:40 PM

Convergence and divergence are features that are pretty much just like they say: things coming into an area and things going out of an area, respectively. You can use it to talk about any quantity that you like, but it is usually done with regards to winds.

Convergence is a sign or a by-product of cyclonic shear or circulation; it can be associated with either a low-level or upper-level low. Divergence is a sign or a by-product of anticyclonic shear or circulation; it can be associated with either a low-level or upper-level high. An example of divergent flow is given by the occasional massive blowups of convection (that usually die out with time) over the Caribbean.

It is possible that divergent flow from an upper-level high pressure system could be helping to push Emily southward, but the more likely culprit (in my estimation) is reorganization of the storm.

Another aside: 10:30p TWO suggests the potential for 99L to become a tropical depression in the next day or so as it moves westward (also near 20mph). It does look better organized on satellite this evening, but still needs some time to consolidate the broader overall circulation. Nevertheless, we might see TD 6 late tomorrow, continuing the most active start to a season in recorded history.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42647 - Tue Jul 12 2005 10:43 PM

Quote:

firestar_1, I'm not sure I'm following what you're talking about. I can't see any feature directly above (by that, I assume you mean north of) Emily on any satellite channel; there is a ridge of high pressure aloft, but that doesn't appear to be moving to any large degree



I was seeing something around 23N 58W that has been rotating most of the afternoon and as it moved alittle south when Emily was getting close to it's location Emily appeared to start moving wsw ... was just wondering what was up...

Edit: Ah, gotcha. I think someone else took care of that one before now; but, I do see that feature. It might've had an impact, but at least part of it was due to system reorganization under the convective tops. --Clark

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....

Edited by Clark (Tue Jul 12 2005 11:09 PM)


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