danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NRL is giving 3 area of concern.
1-06LFRANKLIN.50kts-997mb-396N-647W (at 0815Z-4:15 AM EDT)
2-92LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-175N-608W (at 0815Z-4:15 AM EDT)
3-93LINVEST.20kts-1012mb-107N-409W (at 0830Z-4:30 AM EDT)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 8N60W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT.
AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/290627.shtml?
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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Wow!! Is no one up yet 92L is getting better organize if the dry air get out we could see even more devlopment. The waves behind it look rather week anymore but they could and probley will devlop at some point looks like a lot of dry air again. Also I think some windshear.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Fri Jul 29 2005 07:12 AM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 310
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Currently no real model support for development of 92L even though we see it happening to some degree. shows mostly an open wave getting lifted NW , then north after approaching the Bahamas, as it shows little ridging there. shows about the same solution. and UKMET close off a low near the east coast of Florida by 144. Still have yesterdays MM5 from 12Z. So the race will be on to see if 92L pulls north under the influence of the evacuating trough or, as per the Melbourne disco this am, it stays a little south and slower, and moves underneath the building it will have an improving environment and push WNW. Since the globals had this system SSTalling near the Bahamas a few days ago, I'm inclined to go with the latter solution. Still, the and Canadien are not too impressed by anything out there in the coming week. They should come around I believe, given the improved structure of 92L and its continued organization. Cheers!!
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Just out.......
AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN CENTER NEAR 40.3N 63.8W...OR ABOUT
295 MILES/480 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
695 MILES/1115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...
AT 29/0900 UTC MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 40N TO 41N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W TO 10N61W NEAR NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM 17N59W
TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE 23N56W 10N61W TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IS FLOWING OVER THE TOP
OF THIS WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ALONG
88W/89W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL HONDURAS SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF
86W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
...THE ...
ITCZ 13N16W 11N24W 11N31W...11N33W 11N42W...10N45W 10N50W 12N55W
12N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N92W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH HAD
BEEN IN THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS
FROM A NORTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N77W
TO THIS GULF CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO MEXICO WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT ARE MOST NOTABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N70W
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 18N74W NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE
FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W
TO 10N61W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 10N61W WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 62W AND 66W WITH THE 26N62W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W WITH THE 26N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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I don't think the models can be counted until a depression has formed. The low is to broad and most of the convection is coming from the ULL. If this develops at all then maybe we could consider the models. 
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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good point the says there's 3 points of convection. I agree they'll definiltey split.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
My guess would be for inflamatory or off-topic posts.
This year there seems to be a lot more negativity than I recall seeing for and Jeanne. The tolerance level has gone down, and if/when things pick up, expect even more moderation goodness to occur.
Address the poster? Bad form. Address the content? Usually okay, so long as it's on-topic.
You've been here a while, I thought you'd know this 
Excellent observation. While the intent of this site has always been and continues to be to provide a forum for serious tropical discussion, a spot where newbies are free to ask questions and mets and other experienced weather folks provide insight and information, there have recently been some complaints/questions etc. brought to my attention. There are had and fast rules: ONE: NO CUSSIN'. Everyone is abiding by this, so no problem there; : No attackin'. We've had some minor as well as major activity in this area; the major ones have been sent to the graveyard...you know who you are and you should have probably surmised WHY your post has been deleted.
There are also a couple of "unwritten" rules the newer members may not be aware of, and perhaps need to be reiterated now. It might behoove some of the newer members to "go back" and read some of the discussion threads from 2004, particularly at the height of the "big four". We do NOT want to discourage anyone from posting, and everyone is certainly entitled to his/her opinion, it is STRONGLY recommended that long-timers and newbies alike to not "speculate" or "wishcast" about strength and landfall of future hurricanes, especially those that are not within 120 hours of any landfall. Such posts are irresponsible at best and could be dangerous at worst. If you feel you MUST predict 92L's landfall and intensity, for example, at the very least be prepared to back up your prediction with some kind of science; if someone questions this, it had better not be in the form of a direct attack on the poster.
Another unwritten rule is the posting of s TWDs and Special Statements in their entirety on the main board. Not only is this unnecessary and wastes space, these are all available on the front page of every thread on the main board. Feel free to include a link or take select pieces of the /TWD/STS to reinforce a point or ask a question. In the future, any full posting of these will result in their deletion.
Finally, try to keep the "off-topic" posts to a minimum. Often a post which begins "on topic" can quickly get off topic; discussions of animal behavior and their predictive abilities (on topic) can quickly lead to responses which get further and further off topic; they can also lead to direct attacks.
I realize that after 2004 (TSFH) and the extremely active 2005, people are justifiably on-edge. Lets all work together to keep the best and most informative hurricane site on the net.
Thanks and Cheers,
LI Phil
EDIT: I'm including a link to Site Usage Tips which should make your experience on even better. Please take time time to read through this as it explains the site's mission and some guidelines!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 29 2005 09:22 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Some have the wave splitting in two, but this doesn't even occur for many days down the road while probably in the Bahamas. No wonder the models don't know which way to take it, east of Florida or through the straits.
GFSLR SLOWS DOWN AND APPEARS TO SPLIT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LENGTHY...TROPICAL WAVE INTO VORTICITY AREAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FEELING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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According to the navy website 92L has dorpped a pressure from 1012 to 1010 it getting stronger
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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How would the cold front contribute to a GOM storm if that were to happen?
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
How would the cold front contribute to a GOM storm if that were to happen?
I believe it's because the front has become sort of "hung up" and stalled over NC. In doing so, areas of low pressure move along the front, and one of those could dip down into the GOM and spawn a "homegrown" system.
Regarding the shark bites vs. tropical activity. The summer of '01 was dubbed the "Summer of the Shark" in Volusia County. There was a record number of shark bites recorded. However, only one tropical system impacted the central east Florida coast. It was Hurricane Gabrielle, and it actually formed in the GOM and came across the peninsula.
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Check the Surf
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Will someone please look at the area of convection that flared up in the Carib? Is that anything to worry about? All of a sudden it just appeared. Too close to Florida for me. Thank you,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That appears to be an ULL that will provide rainfall for Florida this weekend.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Could be wrong, but I think that is convection associated with a non-tropical ULL that is forecast to move into FL this weekend. 
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Thanks to both of you!!!
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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that flare up by the bahamas is starting to look more impresive may be we could get something like this 
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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Thanks for the explanation.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Ah, man, no Jensen Beach for me this weekend. Especially if it is going to be raining. shucks.
I liked hearing everyone stories on the critters. Their actions just amaze me.
You know, I have so many questions but I feel like such a complete idiot, I am afraid to ask. Is there a thread anywhere on here for asking (my stupid) questions? Trying to learn as I go and ... apparently, I am not paying enough attention to details.
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Pamie
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: United States
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One of our Local TV stations here in West Palm Beach said the Low near Florida is going to just cause rain this weekend.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
You know, I have so many questions but I feel like such a complete idiot, I am afraid to ask. Is there a thread anywhere on here for asking (my stupid) questions? Trying to learn as I go and ... apparently, I am not paying enough attention to details.
Yes, katiebug, just go to Weather Q & A and post your questions...they might not get answered immediately, but the plethora of mets/weather pros/watchers etc. will usually be able to give you an answer within hours or less
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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