Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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on visible i am noticing a small area of thunderstorms developing to the west of the center and another to the south
there are also two interesting things on the Gulf visible:
small spin off Florida and a low that now appears to be working southward into the Gulf from Alabama and getting organized
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
LI Phil, you didn't mention the potential development of a TD near the mouth of the Miss River which the mm5 has been persistent with the last several days..There is a convective blow-up this morning in the north-central GOM and I see a hint of a LLC near the mouth of the Miss River from the visible SAT about 100 miles south of Mobile..I see the ULL spinning north of Mobile but I think we may have something interesting here..much closer to home..but we'll just have to wait and see.
I just heard from someone that this is now a depression ??? Has anyone else heard that yet ?
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i havent heard that, not sure if thats truee
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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well...(and i'm sorry i didn't mention it, as i did see it discussed very briefly on this am, but never followed up on it); it's not on the navy site, and didn't give it much verbage in their 11:30 ...since it's so close to home, as Rabbit and others have pointed out, it does need to be watched...here's a link to gulf wv loop (click on all the boxes for radar & lat/lon)...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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GO BACK TO HANKFRANK #46617 FROM THIS MORNING (PAGE 4)...
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doug
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here's a look at td 9 also noticed the wave coming off africa today.....
here's a look at
fl panhandle
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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A POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FORM NEAR 32N89W IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.
From 205 pm discussion
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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No depression yet. It's funny, at the office today someone said the same thing at noon. They said they heard it from . I checked the offshore buoys, no pressure falls and winds are light offshore of Mobile. An anticyclone is building over the top of the convective complex and the ULL is moving away. Gulf Temps in the mid-80s so plenty of fuel there. The mm5 has shown a spin up in this area for a few days now, but the has a tendency to form spurious lows from time to time. I think there's some potential for a TD but it may take another day or two.
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RJB
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Of course Accuweather won't give up on it. It would lower there ratings. If there is a possibility even small they will give that option. There will be a Irene and probably by the end of this weekend. I just don't think it will be this depression. But what do I know. 
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kissy
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Loc: Pascagoula, MS
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What does this low mean for MS? Is it just really bad storms?
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Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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ACTUALLY IT JUST MEANS A VERY WET WEEKEND..SIMILIAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A FEATURE (LOW PRESSURE AREA) NEAR THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR, BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO GET INTO THE GULF FOR A FEW DAYS TO BUILD..I KNOW WE ARE STAYING VERY WET IN PCOLA
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The sat imgaery shows that TD9, the GOM, NE Florida coast- they all appear to be 'juicy' just waiting for the right moment to fire up. The entire GOM area will be wet this weekend- that much is certain.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Regarding the GOM development, it looks like it's more onshore than offshore. It might drift south and make something but until that actually happens, I'd say ixnay on any development as a tropical system.
09L: The circulation looks like it's starting to weaken. though with some Isolated convection on the southern side, together with some good banding features (but very limited convection) on the northern semi circle. it's going to take a while for the storm to pick up some steam. if I had to take a short term estimate, I'd say it's going to stairstep to a WNW for the next 24 hours. though it's possible the convection could keep it a little further south as the circulation tries to remain connected to the convection. With the system weaker, despite the initial northern jaunt, it should drift to a more westerly motion and be a tropical storm in 24 hours. it won't take much convection to push the system to a tropical storm. and one good presistant burst should do it.
Harvey: Heading due east, and looks like it's slowing down slightly. but any realistic chance that the storm could make it to hurricane status was pretty much wiped out by the shear that struck it last night. It's possible that the shear could relax while it's over relatively warm waters, but I wouldn't hold my breath, it looks like yet another system that fell just short or hurricane intensity. Which is not a bad thing, as I suspect we'll have plenty more systems to worry about later.
The blob of conection at 10N 22W (or so) actually has a better chance of developing with TD 9 being weaker than projected. (less outflow shear to fight through), but it's still got a couple of days before there's any real shot at development...
the convection at 28N 70W seems to be holding together for at least 8 hours, but... it probably needs at least another day before it could possibly be something, if it holds together tonight, then tomorrow it might be worth really paying attention to. Otherwise I think any window to develop will be closed.
Just my thoughts and IANAM
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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East winds and banding here in PNS, seems evidence of a building circulation....this one may sneak up on us.
I think TD9 is about finished.....it may reemerge in the next few days....something is trying to go EAST of Fl, too.
MM
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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From the 5:00:
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
be interesting to see if this does indeed make it to TS status...i still don't see any reason why it won't, but s remain constant at 1.0/1.5; will still be over reasonably warm water and shear, while there, isn't overly strong
still, compared to what was being progged 24-48 hours ago, this one might barely get a name...WAY TOO EARLY to write it off, but it's looking better and better (for NO development)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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I think it's a goner. I have not been impressed all along....systems seem to have a 'memory' from how they start, sometimes. This system has bever been really well organized (maybe "classically" organized is a better term to use) and started 'running down' almost from the start....convection doesn't persist.
Here is what Avila says:
BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND
IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST
TRACK IS THE AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL.
FORECASTER AVILA
Also, very interesting what he said in first part of the disco ( not reprinted here)....about the upper low coming so far south. I am beginning to have just the shred of a doubt about the hyperactive season. Now, this is just one storm, and it is early August (although the activity so far makes it seem more like late August !), and, this may ONLY apply to systems over in the Eastlant (I think most of our "trouble" this season is going to come from closer in....) but, MAYBE, just maybe, all the favorable indicators are going to be mitigated by too much /Upper low activity...too much vorticity in the mid and upper levels.
I notices in Gray's forecast for August, he noted about as many negative factors as positives (this changed in Sept and October). So, maybe AUGUST will not be the super active month we thought....but, like last year, September may make up for it.
We will see...!
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Fri Aug 05 2005 09:16 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I'm going to have to disagree with you on TD9, MM. It had the organization ever since it came off of the coast of Africa. Unlike many other waves, the convection persisted for days, organized around a well-defined mid-level center. The low-level surface center, until very recently, was co-located with that mid-level center, allowing for development. Only once the shear and perhaps some slight dry air entrainment took hold did the system look disorganized...and that was just overnight. Many will agree, from the on down...this one had the model support, had the "look" that so many CV systems that develop do, and had the favorable conditions to support its development.
The upper lows are transient features and, given a few days to a week, this one will do much the same. Harvey & the trough that comes to pick it up will likely help to lift this feature northward as well, and ridging is present or developing across much of the rest of the basin. We may not have a quick start to the month (beyond what we've already seen), but the middle and latter parts of the month should be kicking.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here!  To me, it only had "that look" in the very beginning...anyway, we can agree to disgree...agreeably!
BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'. We will see if it does any better.
As for the rest..we will see. I am just speculating, of course, but it is informed speculation..subject to change of course as time passes and data accumulates.
MM
EDIT: I think I may have to change my 'screen-name' to TypoKing!
Edited by MapMaster (Fri Aug 05 2005 10:15 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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I have to admit, I did find interesting Dr. Gray's factors for the August activity. To recap that section, he uses 12 factors for activity during August. Of those 12, only 5 were considered to be favorable for TC development.
September is a different story...7 total factors, 5 favorable. October was given a favorable outlook as well, with 3 out of 4 factors having an enhancing effect on TC activity.
So, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that September could have a very heavy concentration of activity.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Respectfully....I was stating MY opinion of the state or organization....it looked sick to me all along....I realize I am going against the flow here! To me, if only had "that look" in the very beginning...anyway, we can agree to disgree...agreeably!
BTW..the next system following along behind TD 9 is beginning to get 'that look'. We will see if it does any better.
As for the rest..we will see. I am just speculating, of course, but it is informed speculation..subject to change of course as time passes and data accumulates.
MM
I know where you're coming from. I believe that a lot of weather watchers are kind of bummed out about today's events. It has been a really odd day, especially in regards to TD 9. Last night the system showed an incredible amount of promise, only to get smacked down today. I'll say this- the weather does throw out its fair share of surprises. We are likely to have many more of these surprises during the rest of this hurricane season-for better or worse.
On another note...Avila's headline for the 5 PM advisory...
"...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL..."
Absolutely beautiful, Avila really displayed a flair for the dramatic there. Just the opposite of being antiseptic, this header was poetic. It brought tears to my eyes.
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