Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Well, here's what says about that thing off the Alabama/Florida coast:
THE BROAD WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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To soon to tell but right now looks to be a rain maker in NC.. If it does develop more like Gale force winds.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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So our little depression isn't dead yet. Seems to be a fighter and after taking the right side of the track for a while it looks like its shifted to the left side of the track guidance. Its still touch and go with this one because if it misses the weakness that the models are forecasting then its time to start watching out.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Actually here's the latest from (11:30 am ) on both near home systems.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NON-TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTHEASTWARD FOR A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
On the GOM system, my earlier post indicated that it might be sub-tropical. These are hybrid systems that incorporate elements of both mid-latitude and tropical lows, mainly asymmetrical shape with most of their weather on their east side. They can, and have in the past, created tropical storm force-like conditions.
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RJB
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I disagree with the 's characterization of the 1014mb low in the Gulf as "associated with an upper low" as the upper low just came into the picture last night while there have been daily surface lows in the northern Gulf. I think it would have been better if they said it was associated with a surface trof and now interacting with an upper low. But that's just me. Looks like another heavy rain day for the Panhandle as assumed.
Low pressure has formed off the SC coast. It's at 1016mb per last NWS posting.
These are the main focuses with North American interests this morning.
Steve
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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I was talking about the low forming off of SC/NC. But 9L feel two things can happen one which the models show is it turn NW and miss US Coast, the other maybe 30 to 40% chance is that keeps on wnw track, if it keeps on the WNW then East coast Florida or NC may be looking at a Cat 2 or 3 knocking on their door late next week.
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wulrich
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TD 9 certainly doesn't want to give up. Now that the westward motion has continued, and its still "relatively" week, its seems like its going to miss the connection with Harvey's "weakness."
JB seems to be thinking that this may be a storm for the East Coast next weekend or the early week of the next.
Those people who had a "bad feeling" about it might be right from the get go. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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center of the weak low level in the GOM can be clearly seen at 29.6n and 88.9w or just about 65 miles south of Biloxi... looks like some convection trying to form on the east side but getting sheared... he's the link, set to about 8 loops and click on high...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Does anyone one have a possible center position on the area off the coast of SC and is their any future track guidance yet? Kind of curious because if it sits over the Gulf Stream, it might could strenghten quickly like alex did last year off Cape Hatteras. Any thoughts?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks like our next depression may be forming east of JAX. I see a slight rotation and convection is building. is concerned enough to schedule a recon flight.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
TD 9 certainly doesn't want to give up. Now that the westward motion has continued, and its still "relatively" week, its seems like its going to miss the connection with Harvey's "weakness."
JB seems to be thinking that this may be a storm for the East Coast next weekend or the early week of the next.
Those people who had a "bad feeling" about it might be right from the get go. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
The odds rae more toward this not hitting the U.S then it doing so but that is my opinion.
Edited for content. -Clark
Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 06 2005 05:32 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Here is an informative read on model education and verification for anyone that is interested. Not that I understand most of it.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm#BAROSKILL
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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******************************************
looking at satellite images it looks as if Harvey is going to be around for awhile, it seems to be slowly moving SE if not stalling out
TD9 is beginning to elongate to the west, and will likely open up into a tropical wave within 48 hours because of the shear; if it holds together, the only land that will be threatened is SE Canada and *possibly* Bermuda
the system off of SC is poorly organized; i only see weak rotation, and i personally think the Gulf system has a better shot than the Atlantic one
other than that, it looks all clear for the weekend behind TD9
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something else i just noticed
except for , everything this year has had the first TD advisory at 5pm (Dennis was 11pm)
Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 06 2005 05:32 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Re: upper low near PR and what the does with it -- well, you're not going to get a good read on what an upper-level low does by looking at surface pressure. For another, the weak impulse that shows up in that area may or may not come from that upper-low...you can't tell based off of the surface pressure. And, it is just that -- weak. The lowest pressure it shows is 1008mb, and not for 4-5 days. That's nothing to write home about. I don't doubt that it might form, but it's not going to be anything to worry about and likely has nothing to do with an upper-level low.
Harvey's doing a nice Franklin imitation, if playing the role a bit better than did Franklin a week or two back. TD 9 keeps trying to fire convection, but it's all on the periphery of the circulation, like last night. The center has become elongated east-west in the past couple of hours, suggesting that the storm might be feeling the negative effects of the shear. It's got to get that convection over the center for some period of time within the next day or it'll likely be declassified by this time tomorrow. Storms are naturally pretty resistent to complete dissipation due to shear, but for a weak storm, this one has held on best it can under the conditions. Given the uncertainty about its survival beyond the weekend, it's not feasible to try to speculate on future track. It should turn back west soon, but the weakness looks like it'll still be there in the ridge to allow it to turn, even for a weak system. Very complex flow pattern unfolding, with any number of possibilities...gotta see whether or not TD9 survives first, though.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
center of the weak low level in the GOM can be clearly seen at 29.6n and 88.9w or just about 65 miles south of Biloxi... looks like some convection trying to form on the east side but getting sheared... he's the link, set to about 8 loops and click on high...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Difficult to tell what's going on here. We know there's a low pressure south of Mobile and an ULL is clearly visible over coastal Miss. Winds are W-NW at buoy 42040 64 nm S of Dauphin Island and the winds are S at buoy 42039 115 nm E-SE of P'Cola. Winds at 42039 are now sustained at 17.5 knots, gusting to 27 kn. A whole lot of convection firing in the NE GOM. I can see the spin in the VIS SAT that you are refering to.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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RJB
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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I looked at latest vis loop for 9L...it looks to be stationary or moving in a cycloidal (cyclonic) loop!! What's up with this?...and the convection that was se of ctr is now ne (due to movement of upper low I believe...shear axis is changing.)
EDIT: OOOPS! I switched sources for the loop , and see I was looking at HARVEY not 9L...my bad! So, it is HARVEY that is doing a loop. Meanwhile..9L looks weak , still moving west to wnw, seems to have picked up.
Low off SC starting to show some cyclonic curvature....and if our little system s of PNS were 100 miles further south!....as it is, it seems to be drifting ESE or E...could make TD before the upper low circulation moves it onshore..
Meanwhile...what's that N of Hispaniola??? 
MM
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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I think you are right Ron. And the Gulf system looks like it is getting sheared out again....
MM
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Good Saturday everyone.....
Something rather strange has been goin on in the past couple of days here in North Georgia and I wonder if it may have some bearing on any tropical systems in the near future.
Normally when thunderstorms develop they, for the most part move somewhat on a west to east pattern, but for the last 72 hours it seems to have reversed course and move the storms through here on an east to west pattern. I think that would have something to do with the low pressure in the gulf and was wondering if this is planned to continue for the foreseable future...
(off topic comments removed)
Jeff
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 07 2005 04:51 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Sorry to change subjects here, but I'm beginning to suspect that TD #9 is going to grow in intensity quite a bit if she stays on her present course. Check out the convection that is getting drawn up fron the to her SW...impressive...and that is the bottom half of her "S" , and the convection to the NE is the top half. If shear drops off, you can imagine the system pulling together quite nicely within the very large envelope. She's running currently at about a 280 course. Not getting overly concerned, but we need to keep a careful eye on this. With Harvey fizzling, TD # 9 strengthening could pump the ridging that I already see building from the NE to SW between TD #9 and Harvey. Again not saying she will do anything down the road other than push the fishies, but the models are not doing too well with the overall pattern. Cheers!!
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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How did harvey leave a weekness for 9 harveys track did go like that, and also what about the wave behind TD it looks like a pretty organize wave, and also how could that make 9 go more westwerd and also what do storm system have to have to give the classification of a invest what do they need to look like i hope someone can answer all these ?'s and sorry about my bad spelling trying to type fast.
Also can someone give me a loop of Alex last year
Edited by NONAME (Sat Aug 06 2005 06:34 PM)
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