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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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NONAME
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: NONAME]
      #48248 - Thu Aug 18 2005 07:33 PM

Now what are we spose to track since there is no tropical systems invest disturbances or anything. Is there anything else going on in the basin?

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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HanKFranK
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land of the dead [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48249 - Thu Aug 18 2005 07:36 PM

you guys have more or less covered xtd 10. the low level signature may still be closed just above the SFC.. sw of the 20/63 feature at puerto rico SFC obs show calm or very light east winds. still has another half day to day's worth of travel to break the shear zone... whatever vorticity imprint on the atmosphere is left when it arrives near 70w in a day or so... well, we'll see. i'm not convinced there's enough of a weakness to turn the energy/system up beyond that point. given that there's no system right now and it may not redevelop, it's just speculation.
west caribbean disturbed weather should propagate wnw. i don't think anything will develop for another day or so... maybe when that shear axis has broken down more. weak disturbance hanging near the carolina coastline progged by some models to move ene or just sit around. none showing it doing much. the waves off africa have been pretty much puffing out as they come off. ITCZ is sort of depressed. not much else worth noting.
oh yeah, irene finally went out. it had a good two week run (august 4-18).
HF 2336z18august


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Random Chaos
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: NONAME]
      #48250 - Thu Aug 18 2005 07:36 PM

Quote:

Now what are we spose to track since there is no tropical systems invest disturbances or anything. Is there anything else going on in the basin?




There are waves.

There is "something might happen here."

There is pure imagination.

Not sure which is more accurate.


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NONAME
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48251 - Thu Aug 18 2005 07:48 PM

Does this the satilite image on the site bellow show the wave everyone t(hat big convection area on Africa) is talking about.

lets try for 8th grade quality grammar/spelling, minimum. can barely understand you. -HF

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 18 2005 08:47 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: land of the dead [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48252 - Thu Aug 18 2005 08:01 PM

Hank:

Glad you said something it was becoming a Wishcasting.

Dave


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dem05
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Re: land of the dead [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48253 - Thu Aug 18 2005 08:36 PM

Yes, It probably would take some time, but the signature to the south and north of X-10 is looking better. It does seem to be trying to pull another "like last night stunt". However, it is small and small enough that it would not influence wind conditions in Puerto Rico. That seems a bit far away based on what I'm seeing in the shortwave images.
Link to shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
May never develop, but I don't think this thing is done in trying to make a go of it yet.
Quick P.S.: Hope noone thinks I'm referring to the debris clouds that are spinning to the SE of the system. Also, Would like to admit that I feel that the system would have a better chance if there wasn't so much energy being used by the systems around it. Admittadly, the Satellite imagery is pretty busy with disorganized t-storms in the vacinity of x-10.

Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 18 2005 08:44 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Dead [Re: dem05]
      #48254 - Thu Aug 18 2005 08:49 PM

The system previously referred to as XTD 10. Should run into an area of Southwesterly shear at 19.3N/ 64.2 W.
Per RECON reports from this afternoon.
The SW winds extend from that point bcak toward 20.4/ 68.5. So that should set up a good wall to 'block' the wave. Or divert it.

Area of persistant convection south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is still hanging on.


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Old Sailor
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Re: land of the dead [Re: dem05]
      #48255 - Thu Aug 18 2005 08:52 PM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 8:05 PM 08/18/2005

Did you take the time to read it.


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danielwAdministrator
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TWD [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48256 - Thu Aug 18 2005 08:55 PM

Dave, yes I did and was preparing to post a portion of it here. Against my better judgement, of course.
Feeding frenzy will probably occur. But here goes.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BROAD LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN MOISTURE ALONG 72W... POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF TROPICAL GENESIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER WINDS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT IS AN AREA TO BE WATCHED AT THE LEAST.
bold emphasis added~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/182332.shtml?

**Note-A little over a week ago. The GFS was indicating a low intensity tropical system in the SE GOM on Aug 20th.
That was an extreme long range forecast...but based on TPC's comments it Is an area to watch.


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Old Sailor
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Re: TWD [Re: danielw]
      #48257 - Thu Aug 18 2005 09:03 PM

Daniel, that was not directed at you it was to Dem05, where it has XXX 10 as a Wave now, plus The Navy has drop it all together.

Dave

Thanks, Captain. I just played out your post. Pure coincidence.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 18 2005 09:16 PM)


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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48258 - Thu Aug 18 2005 09:31 PM

yawn.There was a strong storm over my house tonight lots of winds and heavy rain.Loads of Lightning.That probily has more chance of making something then TD 10 of old does

Ralph...I'll have to agree with you on that~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 18 2005 09:34 PM)


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dem05
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Re: TWD [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48259 - Thu Aug 18 2005 09:41 PM

Hey there,
No I hadn't seen the Discussion until now. But I'm glad you reminded me to look. "Killed" was an interesting word. I had edited my post a few minutes before yours hit, so I don't know if you had seen that update, but it's back there. Admittadly, it is sometimes harder to express words over forums than to speak orally...My comments were geared more to the tone that the system looks better again in the evening, but the overall picture looks complicated for it to ever have a shot. However, I've marvelled the tenacity of systems like Franklin, Harvey, and Irene this year, so I just couldn't rule out that chance for redevelopment. Either way, I think your post and the one from our friend Daniel are good stuff folks! It's nice to see everyone discussing the facts available.


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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: dem05]
      #48260 - Thu Aug 18 2005 09:49 PM

A post that was not sent to the graveyard.I think im going to cry .

BTW this has got to be the most humid summer i can remember here in Florida,it is down right Bad,even after rain.

I hope that means the storms also will stay away.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: TWD [Re: ralphfl]
      #48261 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:01 PM

It has been pretty bad Ralph. We've had some big storms. Also, the past few days (at least in my part of FL) our showers have come at night, not in the afternoon like normal, so the rain comes too late to cool things off which is the best part of Florida's daily t-storms. Today at 3:00 I went out to my car (which had been sitting in the sun for two hours. Temperature in the car read 115 degrees (I know that's not the actual temperature, but I felt sorry for anyone who has to work outside... and my car ). After 30 mins of driving around it still read 105. I have no idea what the actual temp was, somewhere in the 90s I assume. Today it was literally (and I mean this literally, not in the figurative sense) hotter than hell. Broke into a sweat walking to the mailbox.

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MichaelA
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Re: TWD [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48262 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:07 PM

Quote:

Today it was literally (and I mean this literally, not in the figurative sense) hotter than hell.


I work outside. I can confirm that.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: MichaelA]
      #48264 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:18 PM

well sad to say i live on the coast below tampa and i can't remember a summer like this.I know when we get the afternoon storms like Florida use to be that ment the ridge would protect us from storms in the Gulf.Last year we got the storms in Florida because the ridge was not in its normal spot and storms could not turn like the last few have done.

But this 85 temp when i wake up and sweat already before i even go out the door is bad.I remember a few years ago talking about how 71 at midnight was bad.Heck i would take that now.

If a storm got over the gulf area now i hate to say but those waters are so warm we would be in trouble.

Anyone ever read this http://weathercenter.com/forecast/discussion.htm

They post a lot of good stuff about our local weather and why and what.


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damejune2
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Re: TWD [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48266 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:21 PM

Speaking of heat and storms......we had some rain early this evening around 7pm. Other than that most of the storms have been occuring during the night. This morning around 2am we had a pretty good storm blow through. Nothing too bad, but enough to make the power go off and on (enough to screw up the clocks). As for the afternoon storms - been pretty scarce. Mostly at night, like after 9pm. I check the radar when it happens and it's usually isolated to this area and other spots south of here.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: damejune2]
      #48267 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:25 PM

when we had that strom a few nights ago it knocked out the power here for a few Hrs as there was so much lightning it hit a main line.These late night sotrms do nothing for the temps here at all.


=======================================

Can't get much worse then this.Watching the Sox's play on Tv
And posting to a Sox's fan in my own county.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 18 2005 10:27 PM)


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Big Red Machine
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Re: TWD [Re: ralphfl]
      #48268 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:29 PM

at least we all have power now so we can run the a/c. after Charley last year I spent one of the most unbearable weeks of my life w/ no air, and Florida's August temps. Unfortunately that week was one that was spent mostly outside, as there was storm damage to clear. Then, at night, it was nearly impossible to shower because there was no hot water (sounds like it should be heaven when you're hot... trust me... it's not). shaving with cold water isn't dandy either. I guess if I can look on the bright side with these late showers and high daytime temps, it's that I have a/c to cool off in. (and the people around me should be glad I have a shower to wash off in! )

btw, thanks for the site Ralph, it's an interesting read.


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HanKFranK
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Re: TWD [Re: MichaelA]
      #48269 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:30 PM

xtd 10 remnant.. the vortmax is around 20/64 now. it'll be through the shear zone tomorrow afternoon. latest TWO says no development expected tomorrow, so the NHC is calling it over. i'm going to reserve that call until it goes away completely.
sw/w caribbean has had increasingly more ridging and diffluence-aided convection over the last couple of days. the convective bursts near 70w have stunted the fast low level jet some; setting up a stagnant/convergent environment further west. the mcc east of nicaragua that scott was interested in has an odd thunderstorm blowing on its old core, just drifting. if the trends in the area persist, a vortmax will eventually start feeding back and try to develop. close in to central america it would be running over land.. a tad to the east it might stay over water and move nw/wnw. hard to predict where a low will try to form.. probably closer to central america.
by the way, i have an order for everybody. that's right an ORDER. go look at what i posted a few mins ago on the everything & nothing forum. it's new technology... some of you probably won't be able to figure out how to use it, but for those of you who can... you're going to like it a lot.
HF 0230z19august


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