MikeC
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8:30AM
From a special tropical Update, TD#12 is now Tropical Storm . The 11AM update will reflect this.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
6:45AM
TD#12 has remained a depression overnight, although there are some signs of strengthening in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Thankfully chances remain highest for it to get no stronger than a Tropical Storm as it approaches Florida. However, there ermains the possibility for slight strenthening and hurricane watches may go up this afternoon for parts as well. Because of uncertainties in the track and intensity of the system, folks along the east coast of Florida will want to watch for any changes in the forecast during the next day or so.
This is due to the dry air near it, and a few other upper level conditions that would slow down strengthening. However, we'll still want to watch it because of the uncertainty with intensity forecasting and the fact the negative conditions will lessen as time goes on. In fact, it's starting to look better organized right now.
The forecast track hasn't changed at all, but there is still a lot of error in that, especially if TD#12 sllows down more. The potential for it to stall over the area exists as well. Some models, like the , trend it westward, others keep it slower, basically drifting through the bahamas and eventualy onshore, moving at a snails pace.
Areas in the cone will want to keep an eye on it as well. It's important to note there is no real reason to doubt the current track, it is the most likely scenario.
11:00PM
Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Keys northward to Vero Beach.
See Clark Evans' Blog Entry below & Ed Dunham's post in the Storm Forum for much more detailed discussion.
5:00PM
The forecast track, while highly uncertain, is not as uncertain as the intensity track. Thus the mention of a possibility for hurricane watches tonight by the Hurricane Center. In the discussion, the forecast intensity was mentioned as being under the SHIPS model. Going with SHIPS would bring a minimal hurricane into South Florida.
However, how strong TD#12 eventually gets is based upon how soon the center of the storm gets well defined and begins to wrap around. If it happens in less than 24 hours, the likelyhood of hurricane strength is much higher. The conditions around it and the water temps support strengthening, even rapid strengthening, assuming TD#12 can organize fast enough. Many of the factors to keep it down, include a upper level low near it and a bit of dry air. However, I think it's fair to expect a strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane approaching. But the error in that could be very large.
Folks will want to keep watching this system closely. I expect it to become later tonight. I'd lean toward Tropical storm watches issued tonight for South Florida over Hurricane watches, at this time. Persistance overnight and seeing how the storm behaves over the next 24 hours is key.
The future track seems fairly solid, but the potential error is large. There is potential for TD#12 to slow up or turn more northward as well. The more likely right now is for it to head through South Florida near Palm Beach or Broward, and move westward out through Lee County.
4:30PM
Watches warnings up for Bahamas, and Tropical Storm or possibly Hurricane Watches may go up for South Florida later tonight .
Original Update
Tropical Depression #12 has formed in the Bahamas, more to come soon.
South Florida will want to watch this one, and the rest of Florida will need to keep an eye on it. Most likely it will be a rain event for the region, but this is uncertain, the atmosphere has potential for strengthening.
More around 5PM.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I agree with what Scott said on the previous thread. Yes, is .. I just don't see that as being the main engine that drives this thing. Wondering if they were able to go into the center sitting on the Cuban Coast to compare the readings or if there were flight restriction problems. Like to see data and discussion on why they went with the higher center.
And, really don't see that they can go with TD 12 as this is definitely TD10 and the assorted cloudiness. Back in the days of Bob Sheets they always would keep the same name ..not make two storms from one system.
Confused, amused and waiting for discussion. But, I agree with Scott.
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Windfied profiles mainly, the wind direction around the southern edge was west to east, which would imply their center is pretty good.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I dont think the center is near the cuban coast,, just south of where clark said recon might of placed it.. I think more near 22.9N and 75W. Clark said recon had it about 23.5 I guess we will see where they place it.
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abyrd
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Loc: apopka
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Just what I needed. I'm leaving Port Canaveral on Thursday for a cruise to the Bahamas!
Looks like I won't need to drink as much as I thought.
Any ideas on what I might expect?
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
Just what I needed. I'm leaving Port Canaveral on Thursday for a cruise to the Bahamas!
Looks like I won't need to drink as much as I thought.
Any ideas on what I might expect?
Normally they try to reroute you to a diff destination. However, leaving from Canaveral doesn't leave many options. I would call everyday for updates before you leave, and get hold of a bunch of motion sickness meds.
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I am still confused, especially after reading the HPC version. I think they are a little confused on their directions; either that or they forgot to mention it first getting into the GOM, then moving northward due to weak ridging. They imply the takes it up along the east coast of Florida, then up the SE coast. I thought the 12Z still had it crossing SFL into the GOM? Oh well, time to find my darn Tapcons
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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It's not XXTD10 not to say what was left of 10 didn't help 12 to Form, old saying you can keep beating a dead horse no matter how hard you beat it the horse doesn't get up..
Dave
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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There does appear to be a circulation on the VIS at the head of the curved band of convection around 23.5 N (with a weaker swirl in the low clouds just WSW of there). The center of the broader system seems to be further south.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Looking at latest Recon data wonder if they jumped the gun a little maybe close to a TD, better to play it safe.
Dave
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Quote:
Looking at latest Recon data wonder if they jumped the gun a little maybe close to a TD, better to play it safe.
Dave
Can you help me with what it says? I can not figure it out.
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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HanKFranK
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if stewart does the 5pm advisory package i'm sure we'll get an explanation of the naming choice... he's good about that kind of stuff. calling it 10 would be kind of a stretch.. the center we tracked off TD 10 died out on august 18, with the mid level center tailing behind. the actual track of the low level feature would be well west of what we've been calling xtd 10 and it doesn't exist anymore. the mlc hasn't been very solid either; really just a vorticity imprint. considering that official advisories for TD 10 ended on august 14... bringing it back on august 23 would be even odder than being reclassified off its mid/low vorticity remnant 3/4 days after the hpc stopped tracking it... or bonnie coming back from a wave after a five day hiatus from TD 2 earlier last year. this is more in line with TD 6/td 7 in 2003 (which was a depression east of the antilles.. then a depression that slid into georgia)... the two vestiges were related, but indirectly.
anyway, that's just a bunch of scientific mumbojumbo.. i'm more concerned with the classification of sheared and hybrid systems than dead/alive systems.
HF 2006z23august
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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if you look very closely, the center seems to be between the two convective masses
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Colleen A.
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Hi, I'm back! Been busy, long story...
Just watched our local CBS station weather update. Their VORTEX (I think that's what they call it) model has it right off the EC of Central Florida Thursday morning...but he did say that this was not set in stone. mentioned 2 things: dry air in front of this system and the warm waters right ahead of it.
I hope people are paying attention to the weather or they might be in for a surprise!
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Yes, I see it...it looks to be exactly where Recon put the center. Anticipating the 5pm advisory from .
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
Hi, I'm back! Been busy, long story...
Just watched our local CBS station weather update. Their VORTEX (I think that's what they call it) model has it right off the EC of Central Florida Thursday morning...but he did say that this was not set in stone. mentioned 2 things: dry air in front of this system and the warm waters right ahead of it.
I hope people are paying attention to the weather or they might be in for a surprise!
Like Melbourne area?
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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i backtracked on satellite imagery and this is indeed the same wave as TD10, but it split in half a few days ago, it seems that the remnant of TD10 is actually down around Nicaragua, and TD12 formed from the northern half
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Eagerly awaiting the 5 p.m. track and discussion. The first track will probably be going over someone's house here in Florida. If it's yours, you are probably in luck that it won't really do that. Hopefully it just stays as a much needed rain maker.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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MikeG
Unregistered
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AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Forecast Advisory is out
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
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