Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I am also wondering why the has not discontinued the hurricane warning north of St.Lucie inlet,
I'd guess becuase of what did last year with sudden last minute jogs. Just becuase it doesn't look like it might hit there doesn't mean it won't. With the strongest quadant generally the NE/NW one (depending on direction of movement), the warning extending further north isn't surprising.
--RC
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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When I posted the SW note, the center of circulation stopped above the last A in Lauderdale. Now it's down on top of the "r and d". I realize that Florida and the United States jut out in a weirder angle than are depicted on flat maps, but based on the maps, it's moved a bit south. I realize that the last 3 positions (11am, 12 estimate and 1pm) show it at 26.2. But it's hedging downward a little IMHO (may be the angle of Florida as depicted on the maps as noted).
>> Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
I realize the shallow issues they have from the bay eastward. And it's not like I didn't acknowledge it, but we usually measure hurricanes by monetary damage, loss of life, strength and windspeed. Hey, in New Orleans, a tropical storm off the Texas Coast (such as 1998) feeding training rainbands on top of the city is worse than any direct hit of a Cat 1 or 2 on this city. So it's all relative to locale-specific and storm-specific problems. In this case, tidal damage and surge could flood much of the low lying areas of the Big Bend similar to what happened at St. Mark's during . But a high-end 1 isn't really comparable with a 3 or 4 IMO.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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26.5 N 80.1 W
Hurricane Warning, Flood Watch
This was a previous post.
So there is a southerly movement with this last update at 1PM.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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Looking at its current motion and sat appearence, I think we might dodge a bullet here. It might get up to cat 1, but I think it will make landfall before anymore strengthing can occur. Looking at all the sats, the coulds have warmed up a bit, but the overal look of the storm is very good. That large band to the south is impressive and cold cloud tops are starting to band around the center. The worst possible scenario is that it stalls, but it doesnt appear to be right now. But if it does stall, might be a heck of a storm by landfall.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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yeah sorry rob but they are continuing to shift westward. The Models are shifting towards the cause they now see it wont sit east of Florida till tomorrow, it will come on shore near Hollywood later tonight. I do think the and the is allittle too fast ( ) and too much west ( ) but I am in agreement with the and UKMet. I also havnt seen the track or initiation. Thing is,,if this doesnt come onshore before midnight, doesnt exit SW florida by tomorrow evening,, then it will move along 83-84w with a bend to the NNE or NE just N of clearwater on Sunday evening. I expect the most strengthning of the system into a Cat 3 Saturday night into Sunday morning. I expect landfall around midnight tonight and exiting the coast around 3-5pm Friday. Saturday it will begin a bend to the NNW and then N later Saturday night into Sunday.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
ukmet, , , all all have seem to be in agreement now on turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. is similar to at landflall but track is to the right. has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
The new takes it out more in the gulf by 100 miles more then its last run so you can take that out of those and as said the has done really bad.
I wonder what the will do now that the south part has not come about shall see soon i guess.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hey Scott, look at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
check off the MLSP
Won't the storm follow the lower numbers?
If so, the UKMET would seem appropriate.
Yes / NO ??
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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If you look at that floater, has moved south of predicted track.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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I havnt seen the Ukmets 12Z run actually,, its not updating for where I see it so if anyone has a link, that would be great to the 12Z run.
Anyways, I dont see where your saying ralph? I had almost no sleep last night,,hehe. The path for the 2nd lanfall will be determined on how fast it goes from now till saturday and how fast the trough comes down.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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i was talking about the guy who said the was up the coast which it was in the early run but the latest run of the takes it out into the gulf 100 miles more then the last run.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html
Has the latest which which is different then the one posted on there a few hrs ago.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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From what I see, The Force, she is almost excactly on track moving pretty much due west, albeit a bit slower then she was. Even the speed factor was predicted by , so, as of now, they seem to be right on the ball.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Well looks to me there is a dramatic shift to the west,,,UKMet now has gone 400 miles to the west with landfall and the has gone more west. Even the crappy shifted west by 100miles or so.
Again if she moves slow and doesnt exit sw florida by late afternoon tomorrow then she missed her oppertunity to hit anything east of 85W.....if she continues on with a speed of 8mph or more then she will continue towards maybe even Pensocola area.....( the usual hurricane magnet area).
Edit: I think Scott meant to say "west of 85W" given slow motion, not east. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:36 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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As for the , the wasn't predicting the southward jog until this afternoon. It was predicted very close to the coastline, so we still have to watch for it.
I just checked the storm-centered IR floater at CMISS and the floater is moving due-west.
The radar from NWS in Miami is showing an almost complete stall with the only apparent motion to the south southwest! (Just a half hour ago it was showing a west southwest track) Take a look for yourself and tell me if you're seeing the same thing I am about the movement of the center of rotation. I'd like someone to confirm what I'm seeing.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:03 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR DIRECTLY EAST OF LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE BROWARD COAST...AND WILL APPROACH THE PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Several new models are now pointing more towards Mobile/Pola....again.......GFDL and UKMET are two of them. THis could be a very powerful storm if it follows that path.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Bryan Norcross just mentioned that on TV. He is getting his info. from . 2pm.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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a true eye is anything with an eyewall--Bonnie, at 50mph in the Gulf last year, never showed an eye on satellite appearance, but recon plane and stated that there was indeed an eye present
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Looking at that loop --- is the center of circulation just to the left of the  symbol? If so, then it IS moving SW.
Also...just heard from Janice Dean on Fox News Channel that they *may* extend the hurricane warning further south into the Keys. Also...it shows it making landfall tonight around 8pm but not exiting the coast until sometime Saturday. Which I guess would be bad news for everyone, including the SW and Central Gulf coast of Florida.
A new track is supposed to come out at 3pm --- according to Janice Dean. Hm.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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WTNT52 KNHC 251748
TCEAT2
TROPICAL STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z... THE CENTER OF SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL
STORM WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN MIAMI
TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST... OR ABOUT
40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.
FORECASTER STEWART
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Im kinda frustrated watching programming.. too much is based on News and not enough information on what the systems doing and where and why its going there. News briefs are fine but detail to the people is better. I would like to see them not just say,,," we expect landfall here and a turn to the N cause of a front up here". Well why? give people details, maybe show diff model runs. Understandably they dont have the time to go over eveything but its better then hearing about people boarding up or what the stores are doing. Thats for Fox and CNN.
Anyways has detailed well in their discussions but have been off on the speed. I, myself been off too. They originally had this 2 days ago about Nassau right now,,been saying for days, " A decrease in forward speed" but its been moving between 7-10mph for 48hours. Track has been accurate to the model blends but the public can see that. Anyways Ill leave my rant at that...........
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