D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Loc: The Burg < FL
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local met on fox 13 here in tampa says he expects a cat 2 or cat 3 for second land fall .. also said this storm has been very tricky .. also last night on abc action news thier mets had thier titan sytm predicting this sw movement .. strange stuff
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Katrina came in around N Miami Beach and basically cut SW across all of Dade County - so whichever model predicted a southern curve was right, the storm did NOT take projected "slow west" track thru Broward Co. Thus the forecast was accurate in the overall area of landfall and strenght at the time (good), but off considerably after that (bad). On a local level an error of entire county makes a big difference. Throughtout most of the day I'd would have bet the farm on WPB getting the worst and MIA getting the least, however in the end the opposite will be true.
At this rate of movement and direction she'll pop out down in Flamingo/Florida Bay instead of Naples - so I sure hope people in the Keys and SW FL are paying attention.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:
Yeah but its current position is south of even the . Yes totally agree UKMET the only model showing straight SW movement, but more like the 's 265/5 prediction -- doesn't it look more like it's been 225 deg (true SW) since landfall?
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 02:22 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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center now due west of radar about 12.5nm
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.
Brian Norcross reported two gusts of 95 mph on VIrginia Key. Unfortunately I do not have a site to back me up on that, but that's what he said on the air about two and a half hours ago.
Maximum Observed Wind Gusts:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN WEST MIAMI RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 86 MPH AT 917 PM EDT.
FT LAUD INT 82 MPH at 753 PM EDT.
MIAMI-KENDALL-TAMIAMI EXE AIRPORT 81 MPH at 953 PM EDT
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RJB
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I see the model moving the US trough (currently over the plains) toward the SE and picking up . It will all depend whether or not that trough behaves as forecast. Still, a cat 2 and probably 3 storm is going to hit on the north Gulf coast somewhere between north FL and LA. Timing is everything.
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Michael
PWS
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Quote:
Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:
Yeah but its current position is south of even the .
I'm thinking the latest (18Z) seems to be pretty accurate to the path based on what I've seen.
BTW, stupid people alert: http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp8-25-05gg.jpg
The caption was: "Russell Crossey and his dog are soaked by large waves generated by in West Palm Beach. (AP)"
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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I'm really quite surprised by how much of a sw component that has tonight...it's really quite substantial. I agree with the posts above as far as timeframe goes. If the current motion continues, will be back over water during the middle of the night. This contrasts to 's afternoon arrival of (in the Gulf).
You all know what would be wild? How about this...wake up in the morning, and is near the keys! 
Not saying that will happen...
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
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question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?
I think the conclusion we had an hour or two ago was: "There isn't enough experimental data to really know how the Everglades will effect the system."
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?
Yeah...I'd say that the moist and humid environment down there is probably helping to sustain .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Will post more later tonight and again tomorrow afternoon on projected path. came inland with winds near 80mph with gusts near 100mph...there are some reports that it might of been closer to 85-90mph at landfall. Currently she is 80mph, but wouldnt be surprised if its down to 75mph at 11pm. Movement was wsw to sw over the last couple of hours. This is due to the unexpect trough over the NW Carribean being stronger then forecasted. I wouldnt be surprised if she slows to a crawl late tonight into tomorrow. She will probably be near Florida bay and Flamingo during the morning. After that we will see,,,,for now,, will wait for the 0z runs come out. Remember the models have been changing more then any storm this season. I do have a feeling when it does move N,, a turn to the NE like the dynamical models might happen instead of a bend. I will say no more till later.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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You want oz model runs here are a bunch.They all for the most part take it to the panhandle as it is getting to the coast faster then they thought it would.Heck by almost a day.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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That looks to be like Apalachicola Bay/St. Marks ? Also Tallahassee is pretty close to that area.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Pretty much agree with your assesment Scott. I think that the wsw and sw motion tonight has thrown a bit of a curveball into the forecast. And if were to stall? Then all bets would really be off...
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Could the High pressure over Arkansas be pushing the storm down? If you look on the Water Vapor Sat. of the eastern US, you can clearly see a high pressure spin and the clouds going around it and the storm reacting to being pushed.
This, coupled with the trough in the Caribbean is helping to push and pull the storm down. Of course, the big question is, will this trend continue or relax and allow to pull toward the west, then northwest.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I really don't want to see another Elena!
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Michael
PWS
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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how big can this storm get i mean if this thing keeps hanging around could this thing gather more and more power and be like a 300 or 400 mile storm? 
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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oh please dont say that and get people who dont have a clue about storms to think they even can get close to that.In fact if it hanged around to long it would cycle down after awhile like a top does when you spin it.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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base velocity 32nm.... bright colors are winds 71kts.... 151ft to 1300ft above ground
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/bv32nm.png
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 26 2005 02:36 AM)
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