Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
that's about the only thing I think I could forecast accurately , that it will have a second landfall somewhere..... not going out on a limb now am I... hehe
Well not unless you meant the second landfall would be Key West...and that's not even such an absurd limb to go out on, as she's still dropping south.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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*nudge*
New topic ...
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well it's 1:30 AM and 's eye is moving back offshore. the position is further SE than i'd expected.. it's right around cape sable. i don't think it will drop a great deal further sw... don't think it'll be too bad in the keys.
the structure indicates northeasterly shear and some subsidence entrainment on the north side. i'm thinking it'll be 12hr or so for the storm to work that completely out.... should slowly reintensify tomorrow, but get significantly stronger on saturday. there is a dry slot that has essentially broken down the northern eyewall.. until that rebuilds some it'll keep the storm nearly stable. one of the outer bands to the S and SE is also quite strong, which keeps the storm's energy from concentrating near the center. these things should work themselves out on friday. it should be a major hurricane by late saturday, and will likely landfall on the panhandle coast as one. don't think pensacola gets this one.. probably the PCB area or east of there, like clark and the consensus are saying. if does something odd like stall, the ultimate landfall point could end up being further east. the central panhandle east of PCB is sparsely populated save tallahassee inland. this would keep the amount of coastal destruction relatively low, though that's little comfort for central panhandle and big bend communities like apalachicola and port st. joe.
side note that 97L's structure and convective organization have transitioned and improved dramatically. if this doesn't get it classified, nothing will. wave to the east has perked up slightly.
HF 0544z26august
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.
Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!
Jason, I think I speak for many here. You are always missed when you are not here and your expertise is missed as well. Clark and others have done a tremendous job during your absence and your resumed contribution will help expand our understanding of current and future weather events.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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