Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
FLIGHT
A. 27/0600,1200Z
I saw that one, but there was a Flight One that was for 27/0000Z...oh, that's the special high-altitude flight. Gee I should read past the date and time huh.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Well, the GOM's Nickname is "The Graveyard of Busted Forecasts"...
New 00Z early model plots..
Model Plots
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
From the conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Well, the GOM's Nickname is "The Graveyard of Busted Forecasts"...
New 00Z early model plots..
Model Plots
I'd never heard that nickname before LOL
They better start the evac of LA.... before sunrise.
ETA regarding the shifting of the track: Not surprising. Not sure I trust it, though.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:05 AM)
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
Don't like that at all.... The clustering thing is even more disturbing... Hhmm, ok , start making the turn.... or, go to Mexico!
Today in Key West is now the wettest day on record for them... So much for the "Dry" Tortugas... ok, bad joke, I know!....
--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:06 AM)
|
VG
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
|
|
#97 Published Friday August 26, 2005 at 8:15 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
At the 8:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 2 has a sustained wind of 100 mph, is at position 24.7 deg. N 83.3 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.50" and is currently on a WSW heading or 255 degrees at a speed of 8 mph. is currently not strengthening due to dry air entrainment into her NW quadrant but should begin later in the evening.
She has actually shifted a little further south of west during the past six hours. Going back to 1965 I must say that I cannot ever remember a tropical cyclone that has moved from NE to SW through this region. But I did mention the possibility back in advisory #93.
The WSW-SW heading of the past 24 hours has occurred due to the mid and upper level high pressure ridge along 32 deg. N and between 85-95 deg. west and the low and mid level inverted trough located east of the Bahama Islands. This high pressure system will weaken and shift westward in response to a strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough currently located over the northern Great Plains.
CAT 2 will eventually turn W-NW during the next 24 hours but the northerly turn could be 48-72 hours away and exact timing depends on how quickly the mid level trough digs SE'ward towards the NW Gulf Of Mexico. Right now it's still anyone's guess and as usual the models continue pretty useless, with a continued landfall spread between Morgan City, LA in the west and Apalachicola, FL in the east but the clustering of the models has moved westward to Mississippi from the western Florida Panhandle.
I too am shifting my landfall window westward, to between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL, from my earlier Pensacola, FL to Panama City, FL window, not because of the models shift but due to 's continued WSW heading. I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model. If this WSW track trend continues then the Apalachicola, FL to Panama City, FL region will probably dodge a big bullet.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, could easily reach CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current prior to making landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
|
crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 26
|
|
"no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!"
I would sure like to hear reasoning for this in light of the westward shift of the models and the persistent South-of-West motion
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Quote:
From the conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the forecast....
No support for the and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.
NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
(my supposition....TX is now in play)
MORE.....
--------------------
Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:11 AM)
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
Nevermind... that wasn't the forecast... Sorry.
--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:15 AM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
"no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!"
I would sure like to hear reasoning for this in light of the westward shift of the models and the persistent South-of-West motion
My reasoning for thinking this may (not will, but MAY) happen: the trough to the west and north of the storm. Eventually will cease the westward motion when it runs into the trough that is evident to the west on WV imagery. This will cause it to jet to the NNW. There it will hit another area that I can barely make out on WV imagery, and slide NE against this second area. End result would be scraping the extreme SE Louisiana delta, and making final landfall between Mobile and Pensacola, from the southwest, ala Opal.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Intersting no support for . Seems to have been one of the closet models to the idea of what happened with over Florida.
--------------------
Jim
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
Well, the dry air infusion this afternoon helped slow development, but I still don't see any reason to rule out Cat 4. At this point it still hasn't moved outside the bounds of the intensity models that I saw a few hours back.
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
not forcast to become a 3 or 4 until tomorrow and sunday anyway
it isnt missing anything yet
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
>>72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
Jason, that's a hair North east of me. My house is about 29.9/89.9. It would either imply a NW heading at landfall or a hit somewhere in the Slidell, Pearl River, Waveland, Henderson Point, Bay St. Louis areas, wouldn't it? (just going off of memory since I didn't check any of their actual cordinates).
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
From the conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the forecast....
No support for the and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.
NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
(my supposition....TX is now in play)
MORE.....
89.5, that's 30 miles west of my house..... Bay St. Louis Waveland area..... now what does that scenario of a forecast track remind you of... I dare not say it.... the "C" word.... I'm hoping for more west trends or east trends, hell south and north trends would be good to...... and hopefully some big ones as well... now is NOT the time for the models to start clustering and consistent from run to run... and when do they really do that 72 hours out... OK, I'm not worried any more... 
|
Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
|
|
Ralph, the predictions were not for it to be a strong 4/5 already. has already overshot the intensity estimates from last night. Give it time... the intensity is more likely than not going to go way up.
|
Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
|
|
All I know is that this afternoon when my unit released us at 1430, using the early afternoon information, to expect to go back to work on Tuesday. Wednesday if Tyndall ordered an evac. Personally I would rather go back to work on Monday..:)
--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
My bad, I'm at:
Latitude 29.976
Longitude -90.146
Waveland is about 30.15/89.22
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
What are you talking about? This is probably going to be a very dangerous situation in the following days. The official forecast has a solid category four making landfall along the gulf coast. The cyclone remained consolidated throughout it’s duration over the peninsula, and there is really no reason for it not to deepen. Which it is... despite this omnipotent "dry air". As was pointed out earlier... it has infact overshot most of the sound early intensity estimates.
Edited by Lysis (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:29 AM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
