Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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10:50AM
Hurricane is now up to 175MPH Maximum Sustained winds.
If you are in the cone for YOU SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING AT THIS PAGE
10:30AM
Winds with are now estimated at 175mph with gusts well over 200mph. Mayor Nugin of New Orleans has issued the city's first ever mandatory full scale evacution. If you are along the coast in any of the hurricane warning areas, I'd recommend evacuation, follow the recommendations of local officials in regards to these. If you do not evacuate, you are seriously endangering your life -- there's no other way to put it right now.
SUNDAY - 8:30AM UPDATE
With central pressure now at 908MB and sustained winds of 160MPH, is now a powerful Category V Hurricane. As with any strong hurricane, fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 24 hours as the storm moves northwest and north toward the Louisiana/Mississippi border area, but the bottom line is that is a dangerous hurricane that will cause extensive to catastrophic damage when she makes landfall along the north central Gulf coast.
Significant track changes are less likely as the window of time for those changes narrows - the best advise is to monitor the latest track forecasts from . Tropical storm or hurricane force winds will cover a large area of the northern Gulf coast (probably all of it), and near the center of the storm hurricane force winds will extend well inland from the coast for at least 12 to 18 hours after landfall. The storm is expected to move due north and eventually north northeast after landfall. Residents in the Hurricane Warning area are urged to take immediate protective action.
ED
ORIGINAL POST
Katrina is now a category 4 hurricane with winds of 145mph. The official forecast now brings it in as a 150mph hurricane within the next 36-48hr; intensity fluctuations may result in the intensity being slightly higher or lower and there is the serious potential for this to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane, just the fourth such landfalling storm in recorded US history.
Note that many in the SE US can keep track of the situation by tuning in to AM 870 (WWL) out of New Orleans this evening. Those in the impact zone can use it to find out the latest information on the storm and evacuation routes as they head out of town, while those out of the area can use it to follow how the region is preparing for the storm.
Clark Evans has more in his blog, accessible below or in the "Met Blogs" section of the page.
For discussion on other developing Atlantic Systems (90L) go to this link.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
Event Related Links
General Links
Report conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
New Orleans Traffic Cams
Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Katrina
Google Map plot of
Visible Floater Satellite of
Water Vapor Floater of
Visible Satellite Floater of with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of
Spaghetti Model Plot of from Colorado State
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile
Invest 90L
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 28 2005 10:54 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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does anyone have current intensity forecasts from SHIPS, and Superensemble?
last I saw SHIPS was showing 149/150mph.
thanks!
They only update those every 6hr, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC (currently 8p, 2a, 8a, and 2p, respectively), with the updates being made available to the public in the hours thereafter. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Special Advisory. Very Strong Wording!!
HURRICANE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 edited~danielw
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE . AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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And for anyone out of radio range of WWL ... you can go to WWLTV and click on "Watch continuous coverage from Eyewitness News."
They keep updating all kinds of info -traffic info and conditions, weather, all kinds of stuff
Good for people out of town who need up to date local NO info...
from what they're saying now - if you can leave now, do so - traffic is lighter than it will be at daybreak...
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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speed at landfall is forecasted to be 11-12 knots .
any thoughts on how this will impact intensity and storm surge?
-------------------- Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Here is an excellent web page with a graphic at the bottom showing various ways to understand the Saffir Simpson Scale; it lists not only wind speed but barometric pressure ranges, storm surge, potential damage, and information on representative storms.
http://www.answers.com/topic/saffir-simpson-hurricane-scale
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
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What factors out there might weaken this bad baby?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 465
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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One thing that forward speed will do, is increase the wind velocity by that much.... if the storm has about 145mph now, a 5 mph increase in forward speed would increase the winds by 5mph (assuming the strongest winds are in the right front quadrant).
Obviously, A faster forward speed also means that the storm has less time to churn up cold water and weaken itself.
I don't think 11 - 12Kts is fast enough to hinder a storm. So I can't see any inhibiting factors with that forward velocity.
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow..... i bet the next flight will have some nice pics.....hope they take there cams.....the stadium must look sweet right now with the stars above......
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_TPA_ir.jpg IR
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_GULF_wv.jpg WV
i thought she would take a peek tonight with her eye.... didn't think she have that big of an eye.... going to be easy to track now *L*
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:57 AM)
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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weather channel is saying NO is under mandatory evacuation first time in the history of the city
I underwent Camille and evacuated now is the time to go be careful and God speed
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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Can you listen to 870 New Orleans Radio online? I found the link, but cant find a place on there site to listen live.
Thanks
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Listen to WWLTV online. Click on "Watch continuous coverage from Eyewitness News."
WWL Radio doesn't seem to be simulcasting...
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LisaMaria65
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Lafayette, La
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Does anyone know what if any, conditions may be out there that would cause this monster head more West and hit around Intracoastal City, La?
I am in Lafayette, Louisiana. If it happens to come through Intracoastal City or New Iberia, Lafayette will be right in its path as it was for Hurricane Lili in 2002.
Also, if it stays on its current course and does impact NO, being on the west end, what type of weather would our area (Lafayette, La) get, if any?
-------------------- Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 465
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg
6:15GMT sat is out The only thing i can say is... wow
I was reading the WWL boards, and there are people (I don't know how much of it is bravado, but saying how they'll ride it out no matter what, and just drive, a few miles away to avoid the worst of the winds....
There's also a debate if the Mandatory evac orders were given or not. The front page of WWL doesn't say yet, and evidently no one local has made the announcement, they've only heard on the weather channel.
I hope people get out anyway, it's not a time to dither around, even if the storm misses you, the term better safe than sorry applies to this storm, perhaps moreso than most.
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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In Lafayette, being on the west side of the storm would result in greatly reduced -- but non-negligible -- impacts from the storm. Largely, rain and gusty winds would be the primary impacts felt from the storm, as the hurricane force winds would likely not be felt in that area.
The track can change at this point, bringing it further west, but right now most of the guidance is clustered near New Orleans. Stay appraised of the situation and be ready to take precautions, just in case the guidance changes and it appears that the storm may go a bit further west. Better safe than sorry, I feel, but not going overboard.
I'm heading out for the night, but there will be others around to help take you into the morning hours. Have a good night everyone, and stay safe.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Here is a link showing the sat image of Camille (scroll down a little bit).
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
Compare this to current sat imagry of (even though we're on the overnight blackout compare to the most recent visual image from 10:45p CDT (3:45 UTC):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I was listening to the station posted here and they siad they do not have any mandatory evacuations at this time for NO...
I am not sure they could. They were also discussing where to put all the people that had no way to get out.
It could really be ugly if NO gets a direct hit.
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Buoy 42003 stopped reporting a couple of hours ago...wave height at that time was 35 feet, wind speed sustained 50kts gusting 64kts out of the ESE, as passes to the south (if I remember it correctly, about 180mi to the south).
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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They leaked it earlier today that the Superdome would be used in a last resort/ worst case scenario.
I believe they did the same thing last year for and for Georges in 1998.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Top line...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
HEAVY RAINS FROM SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
..ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF .
THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280610.shtml
this would be the bottom line.
From the for what it's worth department.
8/16/1969 Camille 7 PM CDT Bulletin
25.0N / 86.9W 150mph winds
from the archives.
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