Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Soon to be upgraded Tropical Depression 14 (Invest 91L) located near 12N 36W at 30/12Z should move west northwest, perhaps northwest, over the next couple of days and then back to west northwest later in the week. Modest shear should minimize intensification for a couple of days with a more rapid intensification thereafter as the shear relaxes. System should attain Tropical Storm status by the end of the week.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 31 2005 01:45 AM)
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Thanks for the update Ed. This one seems to command some attention for now. I find this site has the most helpful/useful/up to date information. People in my office were saying about how they didn't know it was even a storm to watch until 2 days before. I told them all she was actually the remnants of XTD 10 and how I was watching her since mid August. They were shocked and asked how did I know. I told them all of this website! They'll have no excuses now if 14 becomes something to watch.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Wow, not what I wanted to hear. Looks like things are in full swing,will we make it through Labor Day week-end without the threat of a hurricane hanging over our heads?
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Can Skeeto do up a map on this with for now tracks??
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Ed, I noticed you called it "soon to be upgraded TD14". Do you know when it will be upgraded? I can't find anything from the at 11 for it, and the is still for 5:30AM.
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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No new TD at 11 from the . The 11:30 only mentions that the enviornment will be growing more favorable and a new TD could be form in 24-36 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/301522.shtml
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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How about the mid-Atlantic large area of disturbed weather, including X13, anyone think this is going anywhere:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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To my untrained eye, it appears to be heading N or NE in that link you provided. I think it's too high to be a factor for the US and would likely be a fish spinner if it developed.
The potential TD14 that Ed mentioned above is lower, so that might be a different story. Time will tell.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Here are some X13 models that will make you dizzy. Looks like X13 with a hangover:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL132005
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
Wow, not what I wanted to hear. Looks like things are in full swing,will we make it through Labor Day week-end without the threat of a hurricane hanging over our heads?
agreed Debbie, my birthdays on monday and i don't want to feel like this is the best bithday ever if people are under the gun for a hurricane
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Happy Birthday Ryan make your wish earlier and maybe it will just go away. Seriously though, I hope this thing doesn't develop.I spent Labor Day with last year (hunkered down)
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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5PM advisory indicates that TD14 should develop in the next 24 hours or so and that TD13 is regenerating and we might see advisories issued again in 24 hours or so. Here goes a busy September!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/302126.shtml
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The wave that looked like it was about to become TD 14 earlier today has weakened, however, a second wave in the same general area near 15N 37W at 31/00Z looks like it has a better potential to evolve into TD 14 in the next 24 hours.
ED
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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From local WPB Met.:
Well the situation does and can happen when we get later into hurricane season and into October that fronts begin to move down into Florida but because of the warm waters yet these fronts usually stall. In this case becomes part of the entire hemispheric weather pattern and overall becomes an low..since this is a strong system for this time of year a front this early is unusual given the front coming toward us and the very warm waters now any front that breaks off from the parent low of any kind up north and high building north and west of us this can take any broken or left behind front to turn into an interverted trough and in most cases a tropical low can develop.. conditions are fair to good in the NW Bahamas and upper level winds are of a weak shearing state which means we will need to keep watching for this front as it moves toward us Thursday and Friday it will stall just offshore and the has been consistent every run on the development of a tropical like low..this is expected to be held in place by a weak trough at mid levels and may drift southwest with time getting close to our coast by later this holiday weekend or early next week..if it sits near the very warm waters it can develop into a tropical storm or worse..right now though the model even adjusting for errors on pressure development intensity keeps it a weak low but the potentialis there for a tropical system to worry for us along our east coast...it may sit for 2 to 3 days before finally lifting northward late next week...It is important to keep watch on this...not to panic or call for the doomsday event but we always must keep on our toes with any situation like this one when it is very consistent on the models too...the ..!!
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Thanks for the update. I for one will be watching this site so I can monitor the situation. I spent last Labor Day with and have my fingers crossed.
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Danny From Miami
Unregistered
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Whats going on with it? Will there even be a Tropical Depression 14?
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lonny307
Unregistered
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http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/newreply....part=2&vc=1
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lonny307
Unregistered
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oops. try this. lee formed at 5pm. looks like a fish:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/312025.shtml
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Danny From Miami
Unregistered
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That was Depression 13...
Theres a wave behind it but it is forcasted to follow right behind this one to the north...no threat to land
But theres even one behind it..well have to keep an eye on it; it may follow the other two
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Tropical Depression 14 forms.
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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