Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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To my eyes, the VIS, IR, and radar loops all indicate an eastward component to the motion. It certainly isn't moving very quickly, though.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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You're right, especially for the last frames. Note how the flow on the northwest part of the storm is being affected by the incoming ridge/front.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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yeah I was off on but that was also 5 days out forecast.Dont forget changes theirs every 6hrs. Anyways I put down as a miss on forecasting, 2nd this season. I did get her exact path from 36 hours out though.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I happen to remember last season scott and you did a great job. I really enjoy reading your thoughts on these storms. Nobody gets them all right. Jeanne and were had to track last year but if I recall you did very well with those two
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
yeah I was off on but that was also 5 days out forecast.Dont forget changes theirs every 6hrs. Anyways I put down as a miss on forecasting, 2nd this season. I did get her exact path from 36 hours out though.
Scott go back 5 days maybe 6 but i think 5 days ago you had it going to FL GA border its on the other posts.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NHC now mentions 95L in their : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/142057.shtml
We've got to watch him (why him? Next storm is Phillipe.)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The IR loop of Ophelia is interesting... it looks like some of the higher cloud tops from the outer eyewall are being wrapped into the eye, perhaps by some sort of smaller circulation. There isn't much precip under these tops based on the radar.
Looks like the eastern half of Ophelia is starting to become the dominant side, a trend which will likely continue as it starts to feel more effects from the approaching trough.
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Clark
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Quite frankly, I can't see anything more than a brush -- if that -- to Long Island and Cape Cod. Landfall is almost entirely out of the question. The approaching trough is nearly at the longitude of the storm and should start accelerating Ophelia at a pretty good clip any time now. There is a pretty strong jet behind the trough, keeping it and the rest of the flow moving along at a good clip, with the end result being a storm that heads out to sea. The current track looks good from my point of view, keeping the storm well away from land. People further north should watch it, sure, but I do not foresee any direct -- and minimal indirect -- impacts from Ophelia that far toward the north.
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syfr
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Central NC
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Vy little storm effect here just south and east of Raleigh NC. Intermittent light rain bands, winds from the NNW gusting to 25. Much less rain than what we were forecast for.
John
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Any chance she'll afffect Chincoteague Island? Also, what is your opinion on 95L?
It'll brush by there with the western side of the storm. No idea on 95L...haven't had the chance to follow it. -Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 15 2005 12:54 AM)
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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And Ralph's forecast from Sept. 9...
"For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach."
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:00 PM) OR
Ralph's Forecast
I lurk on here often, trying to be a student. So I post very rarely. I know that no one gets their forecasts all right or all wrong not even the , but it makes for interesting discussion and debate. I have to vent this in that it gets very old very fast when people make habits of saying things about others posts but give no reasoning why the post they are commenting on is wrong in their opinion.
PS...Mod's feel free to send to the graveyard, but this is a great site and sometimes one needs to vent....Thanks.
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I hate to say it, but over the last hour on radar I fail to see any movement of Ophelia. It looks like the coastal areas of NC are going to be really wet.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ophelia has probably done it's worst to the mainland. the counties along long bay and onslow bay from northeast sc up across southeast nc have taken long hours of strong gusty winds and intense rainfall.. parts of brunswick county north carolina have doppler estimates ranging near 15". the waccamaw river is going to be up for a while, needless to say. right now the center is approaching what will be considered a landfall.. if only partial... at cape lookout. the large eye should trace the barrier islands to near hatteras, with the core of strong winds running from carteret county to dare county. ophelia has been fairly stable today at around 980mb, with the winds roughly matching the minimum pressure. based on the outflow and convective pattern i wouldn't expect it to intensify any more. terminal track from here should be close enough to nantucket/cape cod to merit issuance of t.s. warnings for a late friday passage.. and the storm will likely move even closer to nova scotia on saturday as it becomes . there is a chance it will baroclinically interact with the shortwave to the west and move more to the north, affecting eastern new england more severely. the doesn't think this is likely and neither do i... as the storm has tended east consistently and the shortwave doesn't appear to be digging or amplifying much. if this occurs the track will be slower in the short term and ophelia will pass the areas to the north perhaps 12hr later than otherwise.
rest of the basin:
95L has an ever growing envelope of convection. the low pressure at the surface is elongated east-west, but slowly consolidating. if it takes longer then the ultimate track will be further west, and quite possibly over the caribbean islands. most of the models are favoring a quicker development and more northward track, and based on the appearance of the system i'd agree with them. this will probably be a classified system by the weekend. most of the globals and ensemble runs are showing a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge near 65-70w, so this system will likely end up closer to bermuda than the u.s.
what has me far more concerned is the feature north of puerto rico. the consensus of globals track this feature westward through the straits of florida around early next week.. some showing a closed surface low at that point. the hpc official even tracks it as such. ensemble forecasts show the zonal steering ridge centered over the gulf states weakening around the time this feature would be nearing the western gulf... if it hasn't developed and done something strange in the meanwhile, it will be there late next week. very strong upper ridging is shown in the gulf at this time... looks like a very favorable scenario for development if it pans out. i've been mumbling about texas maybe seeing something later this month for about a week now... the candidate has shown up. western gulf is still very warm... it's something to keep an eye out for.
globals are showing other activity as the month progresses. the pulse has sort of split, going out of phase again. we'll probably see a more strung out, less concentrated pulse.. but if you look at the tropical eastpac right now you get the picture that it's vigorous enough. also been watching the SST anomalies in the tropical pacific. there's a more clear cold signal than we've had all year... la nina may be coming on this winter, after a 3 1/2 year hiatus.
that'll do her.
HF 0129z15september
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Beaumont,
Last 850 vort model runs on site:
18Z and and 12Z UKMET have 95L NE of Lesser Antilles @ approx 20N/55W in 5-6 days.
12z shows 95L further west just off northeastern PR @approx 22N/65W in 5-6 days.
12Z in 3 days has 95L moving NW approaching the northern Lesser Antilles.
My take as of now--no threat to the Gulf. Probable fish spinner.
The more interesting feature for us Gulf dwellers, however, is the current tropical wave near PR which majority of the models want to take into the Gulf next week (that's the monkey in the middle HF referred to last night). Bears watching.
Edited by CoalCracker (Thu Sep 15 2005 12:35 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I never had it going up to the fl, ga boarder with . Alway had it going across the gulf maybe as far up as a Erin like path.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I said on Ophelia that she might get turn more s then sw then forecasted and possibly go towards Fl,GA but said that was speculation and said my forecast is brushing the carolinas and brushing eastern longisland and capecod.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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scott, i do not think it will come close to LI, NYor cape cod MASS..i mean the only thing it will do is liek give us some showers and waves but i mean not landfalling and prob not brushing but i mean it did look ike it sould brush us a couple days ago..shows how dramatically things change. 
-RYAN, LI
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Rain finally ended here in Myrtle Beach. We escaped pretty easily. Some gusty winds overnight, no damage, etc... I was remarking around 3pm how odd these storms are, because I could at that point got in my car and drove route 17 for about an hour and been about 15 miles from the eye of the storm. Such a slow mover. Anyway, I have to say the late models yesterday were dead on in keeping Ophelia just off the coast. Not a bad job in general from the either considering the slow movement of this storm. Looking at the latest radar it seems a little more of a North jog...We'll see.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Our local meteorologist mentioned this one near PR this evening. He also said the Gulf waters are warmer again, 86 degrees here.
Think this could develop?
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Beaumont, TX
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HankFrank, just saw your opinion on it. We'll be watching it here in Texas if anything develops.
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