Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.
I seriously doubt you are going to see explosive deepening. I really don't think we will be looking at a borderline Cat 3 by morning. I expect pressure drop to 975mb, possibly 970mb, by tomorrow, but I think a drop to 965mb or more would be pushing it.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Quote:
Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.
I seriously doubt you are going to see explosive deepening. I really don't think we will be looking at a borderline Cat 3 by morning. I expect pressure drop to 975mb, possibly 970mb, by tomorrow, but I think a drop to 965mb or more would be pushing it.
I'm thinking it will be a strong cat 1 or borderline 2 by morning. Maybe Cat 3 on 36 hours. It's got a long way to go before it's a cat 3, but it's definately showing signs of getting there.
ETA: based upon radar, it looks like it's moving north of west to wnw now.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 20 2005 12:11 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Rapid intensification is not going to occur until something resembling an eyewall begins to form. There has been no indication of that happening on either the radar or the recon reports, though the last radar image (at 2352 UTC) has something that might be half of a developing eyewall. While the center is underneath the cold cloud tops, the radar indicates that the convection producing those cloud tops is to the south of the center, with not much going on north of the center so far. The system is not very symmetrical yet.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 20 2005 12:14 AM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Outflow is very impressive, especially to the north and east. I notice that here on the west coast they have bumped up our precipitation chances from 60% to 80%, with rainfall totals of an inch possible. Winds are also forecast to be higher, gusting to 41 mph on Tuesday night. As continues to grow, I expect those numbers to get even higher.
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Explosive deepening constitutes a steady drop in barometric pressure (like 30 mb or something close), at various, sustained rates, over either a six or twelve hour period… so be careful with your word usage. As for a cat III in 36 hours… Well… the would agree with you, per their intensity forecast, so your not really going out on a limb or anything.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Sep 20 2005 12:21 AM)
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SEAKRO
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Loc: Stuart, Fl
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Not to change the subject, but rather looking forward, any further info regarding 97L or the spin off of this storm mentioned a few days ago?
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There are no atheists when you are caught in a storm at sea. 22 years U.S. merchant marine.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I do think is in an environment where explosive deepening is possible, but whether it can attain enough organization in the next 24 hours to take full advantage of the very warm water beneath it remains to be seen. There still seems to be a little shear to deal with in the near future.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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This is from a local met.:
Brief Update Tropical Discussion On
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
800pm EDT Monday September 19 2005
A brief look I had this morning on the upper winds at 200mb showed a Southeast flow along the Southeast and east coast of Florida from the upper air data analyzed using the digiatmosphere program...just briefly the crictical point is whether a jog to the Northwest for a small time period tonite and early morning. has been moving based on latest satellite loops WNW a jog NW for a small time could change things for south florida.
We will need to watch for that jog from now thru the 12hr period or so..if this should happen then all of palm beach county could be seeing 40+ winds sustained.
I included the 200mb analysis..from the 12Z data i used..there appears to be some motion of the convective field band to the NW NW sector of 's center..
I will see how the upper winds show up tonite next few hours..the winds at mid levels are from the EAst Northeast...but the surface winds are still Northeast..that could support a wind field for a center readjustment or slight jump NW..
Again just something to keep very very close watch on..
More on that later...official forecast looks okay but I still have still the concern of that track being possibly compromised just a little farther north...it wont be a smooth track but wobbling WNW and NW..and back more WNW to W once it reaches the Gulf then bending NW again..this has been the problematic tracks of and ophelia due to changing directional winds aloft..!!with height..!!.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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I'd agree that the temps aren't as high as they were with but I wouldn't say they've cooled off several degrees. The problem with those SST charts is that they don't take clouds into account, so out of all the pictures you have to look for the 1 or 2 that clearly show a specific area that isn't covered with clouds. Note that Florida Bay (between the Keys and the FL peninsula) has the warmest SST's anywhere.
Here's another SST source that gives a better composite temp.
SST
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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The core is definitely consolidating... IR presentation certainly looks like a hurricane.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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As for SST's, they aren't as high in the pocket between FL and the FL Panhandle due to , but the western gulf has warmed up nicely. Furthermore, the area near Cuba has become VERY warm, well above average:
Atlantic SSTs:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif (er...NHC has somehow put the wrong one up, but you can still see the gulf)
https://web1.navo.navy.mil/products/K10/moweryk10.gif
Atlantic SST divergent from seasonal average:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif
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Also, look at begin to bloom on IR:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I just heard Lyons say they expect it to become a hurricane later this evening.
Also I think he said it is not anticipated at this time for it to be more than a cat2 once it enters the gulf.
Edited by DebbiePSL (Tue Sep 20 2005 12:55 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I just heard Lyons say they expect it to become a hurricane later this evening.
They've been saying all day that they expect it to become a hurricane at any minute, basically. Looking at the IR and the radar presentaiton, though, I'm surprised they did not upgrade it at 8pm ET... although an hour ago the IR image was looking a bit ragged temporarily.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Last numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.
As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.
The last recon on was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.
--RC
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Tropics Guy
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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The is greatly expanding and the cloud tops are cooling. The convection appears to be wrapped around the center of circulation now, though an eye still has not appeared. Think recon will find a hurricane on their next pass through.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Last numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.
As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.
The last recon on was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.
--RC
I'm sure that's what he meant, if not what he said. The last bit of convection has the comma shape to it again, after a bit of a raggedness for a few hours, and maybe an eyewall forming? No eye yet but a dark spot in the upper left near the circulaton center. We'll soon (maybe a few hours) be able to track it better on radar - could be interesting to watch the development, similar to Ophelia.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Can someone explain the Divorick Numbers?
Also, I noticed a slight south wobble at 8PM, how long before its a trend and not a wobble?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Um...If you're looking at SSD, that gray is even colder than the red, not an eye. That's rare - usualy systems only have a spattering of the grey...this one has a solid chunck (lovely non-scientific terms!). It's got very cold cloudtops - I wish I had numbers to associate with the scale...
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 20 2005 01:21 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Can someone explain the Divorick Numbers?
Also, I noticed a slight south wobble at 8PM, how long before its a trend and not a wobble?
Easier to point you toward resources to read up on them 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm (this last one is for amature guidence only)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Um...If you're looking at SSD, that gray is even colder than the red, not an eye. That's rare - usualy systems only have a spattering of the grey...this one has a solid chunck (lovely non-scientific terms!). It's got very cold cloudtops - I wish I had numbers to associate with the scale...
I know. The gray is (to my eyes) an indication that there will soon be an eye, though, considering that it seems like the gray area is growing around a red area (where the center of circulation is). The red is what I'm saying will become the eye, possibly tomorrow.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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