Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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SSTs are down a bit, but any effect had was removed in only a few days. Anyway, we probably won't see another superstorm, but I've certainly seen 4s in this kind of evironment.
Edited by Convergence (Mon Sep 19 2005 07:43 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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it appears that Philippe is stalled out at the moment, and the shear may have weakened it to a TS by now; is probably going to become a hurricane within 12 hours (which is why my hurricane total for this year is 9--it will probably be a hurricane before i am on the computer again)
GFDL takes down to 921mb and up to 155mph in the Keys and landfalls it at Marsh Island, LA on Saturday as a 120mph hurricane at 962mb
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I wouldn't bet on that!!!!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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a 4 is a super storm to me. was only a 4 at landfall.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I agree. The Gulf is like a melting pot for big storms to do what they want. Regardless what the SST's are right now, they are still very warm for a body of isolated water for any storm once it gets into the Gulf to strengthen rather rapidly. But in may be the Straits that do the trick this time. SST's warmer there than the Gulf.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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For NewWatcher - that is the noon recon at the end of the SE to NW pass (17:42Z = 12:42pm CDT).
I don't see this rapid intensification happening over the next 24 hrs that there have been several allusions to; don't see anything higher than a Cat 2, at most, by the time the storm goes over the Keys. Don't read too much into Joe B (i.e. Prophet of Doom), or just one model run. Neither pressure nor winds indicate anything more than a well-organized TS, although pressure diff is a healthy 6deg.
For Rick - SSTs are by definition only surface temperatures, not temperatures at depth.
For Convergence - actually the effects of on water temps down to 50m would have been significant and much longer-lasting than a couple of days.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Shawn M
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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They are going to start evacuations tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on Galveston Island if stays on its current track. I don't really think it will hit here. Unfortunately, I think it will be another LA landfall. I'm sorry to say that but I just feel that is what will happen. It will also put New Orleans on the "dirty" side,too. God Bless to all because this one will hit somewhere along the gulf coast.
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TDW
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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A question about those at the that write the official discussion:
How much of the discuss is specific to the expert opinion of the forcaster and how much boilerplate? Do the "higher-ups" get involved with the discussion as the storms approach land or become more intense?
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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Chevy
Registered User
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Loc: Tyndall AFB, FL
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This is my first year with the whole hurricane thing. It has been a very interresting time. I am trying to learn and observe as many of these storms as possible so that i may learn when to be alerted in my area.
This site is wonderful! I am so glad to have found it.
Chevy
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My first hurricane season
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Here's hoping you keep your Hurricane Virginity this year, and if not I am hoping Mother Nature will be gentle with you.. LOL Glad you can join us..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Chevy
Registered User
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Loc: Tyndall AFB, FL
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Hey there... we were evaced for .. so we only had the one this year, had friends that were stuck on base in Biloxi through .. they are ok though.. back in a safe place.
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My first hurricane season
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hey all, please use the Forecast lounge to discuss where you think landfall may occur, especially out beyond Florida.
Forecast lounge link
Discuss conditions in your area relative to here
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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A bit too early to say for sure. Think we will have a better idea tomorrow at this time but either way.. Texas or La.. right now the problem is the Keys and South Florida. And, the Keys may have a very rough ride so.. first things first I think.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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If you look at history you would see that a storm has never hit Texas that formed where did. Is this anouther one for the record books ?
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_climo.gif
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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You are right! Interestingly enough, the is stating that is moving 14 MPH in a WNW fashion and should continue to do so for the next 24 hrs, considering is located 330 miles ESE of Miami I would be very concerned in So. Fl because my math has it continuing on to Miami in 24 hours. Just my humble opinion as to why So.Fl. should stay in tune withe latest developments.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Mon Sep 19 2005 08:21 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Latest recon (about an hour old) shows has not strengthened. Also sat imagry show less organization than from say 11am.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Climatology doesn't seem to be working well this year for the Gulf, but there have been a number of Altantic storms that have followed historical patterns of recurving.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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in looking at then vis sat, IR, and WV, it looks like is south of the forcast point, and moving almost due west, even a bit wsw..it is hard to tell
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Joe when they say its moving wnw at 14mph...that means thats what the last 3-6hours of motion has been, not what its going to happen before the next update. Currently and overall for the last 3 days its been moving just N of due west about .1N of every .5 w. Right now S florida should keep an eye on it but its mainly a Keys event. (hurricane force winds of course).
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I definitley see that too pcola!! But if you watch the IR for a couple of hours in the loop mode you will notice the "center" is hopping around N S E W.
very interstressing!  .
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