lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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RC, I saw that gray chunk too and thought...........here we go.
WOW!
The IR has just exploded.
It's almost like just turned the convection engines on full blast.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
RC, I saw that gray chunk too and thought...........here we go.
WOW!
The IR has just exploded.
I thought something a bit more... vulgar.
This thing has REALLY exploded in the last 3 hours.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well.. crap. thoughts on are working out so far. probably a cat 2 as it blows by the keys tomorrow. 100mph winds or so... key west will probably record hurricane force winds late in the afternoon. all you folks in dade/broward and such will probably be in and out from power outages (katrina probably knocked down a lot of the vulnerable foliage last month, and the winds will be weaker, so i'd expect a lot less). monroe county it's a different story... hope the folks told to evacuate got the message.
forecast tracks today shifted far to the north from yesterday as the models latched onto a stronger system and a weakening ridge. based on the synoptic pattern and trends i'd say that will continue wnw/w for the next 2 days and then gradually turn nw. i don't expect that right hook the and a few others are advertising.. should come in on a gentle right glide... decelerating at landfall.. but accelerating over the next day or two. think it'll clear the gulf faster than progged.. probably reach texas overnight friday/saturday as opposed to late morning saturday. 00-08z. intensity i'm thinking will be the bad scenario some are advertising.. major hurricane, probably stronger than the official. while out in the gulf may peak as a borderline 4/5, but will probably come in as a 3/4. pressure probably in the 930-950 range. should be the strongest hurricane to hit texas since carla in 1961. i'll put a preliminary bullseye at sargent... with the range being rockport to the sabine pass.
on the lighter side of things there's philippe. the storm is underwhelming in light of earlier intensity forecasts.. 's outflow jet that earlier models weren't seeing is raking across the northern periphery of philippe, shoving it a little eastward and keeping it a minimal hurricane. philippe should probably keep tracking northward and zip out over the weekend as the earlier progged weakness in the western atlantic ridge fills and pumps up in 's wake and the weakness in the central atlantic stay open and digs phil out. probably get a little stronger as gets further away.. and for the meanwhile keep any incoming system wannabes from the east from going westward. the wave near 40w has been sheared upstream of phil as well, and has been spitting out vortices with convective bursts like little fireballs... up nnw and into the shear zone streaking in from the nw. ssd put a 1.5 t-rating on this thing and that is total crap. there's no LLC or coherent convection with the wave axis anymore. these pieces of energy are banking around philippe.. maybe keeping the eastern side formidable, also possibly funneling some wave energy around the storm. that little vortex that snuck around philippe the other day has smeared out near puerto rico, and some of its energy chased westward.. but this general area will have to be watched down the road, which i'll get into later.
synoptic pattern down the road... i'm thinking it's going to change more than the cpc forecast is calling for right now. i think the 18Z has the shift to a more amplified pattern with the ridge progressing eastward into the atlantic, knocking the heights back up off the east coast. this doesn't agree with the cpc forecast, but i'm kind of expecting the persistent pattern we've had to shift soon. joe b has been talking about a pattern-pulse system popping up near the bahamas around the weekend... with that big high coming down into the northeast this weekend the surface pressures should fall west of philippe. so whatever gets worked around philippe into that region will be trying to mix it up. the pressure falls should also act upon the wave that currently has invest 97L on it... which should be near the eastern caribbean at that time. pressure falls on a slow-moving wave... yeah, same deal. shows something coming up out of there, actually towards cuba/florida, early in october. nothing significant near the bahamas, though the and seem to be catching that a little better. just something to watch, for now. other stuff appears in the eastern atlantic as well, though that's pie in the sky right now.
rita isn't pie in the sky, it's a real threat. texas needs to get ready for this one.
HF 0146z20september
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Hugh In my post I said that Lyons said a cat 2 as it enters the gulf also he mentioned they didn't have enough data from recon to classify it as a hurricane yet. He does however keep calling it a hurricane and then correcting himself
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Lyons just said -80 degree C cloud tops
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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WOW - 18Z is going nuts with , bringing pressure down to 932mb just as it passes the Keys. That's Category 4, if the winds match! Luckily it then has it steadily, albiet slowly, weakening as it crosses the gulf.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the 18Z is already 6 hours old...I think the new model will be a little less intense
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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DVORAK LATEST "2005SEP20 0145Z CI=4.4"
Recon inbound. 0205Z-Max wind (so far) at 22.53N/ 77.21W 51kts at 3164m or 10378ft.
Recon now outbound from center.
0225Z Max Wind at 23.45N/ 78.15W...59kts at 3175m or 10414ft. I know those coordinates look strange. I believe Recon came in from the NE and is flying toward the NW. That would put the Max Flt Level wind in the NW Quadrant...so far.
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 02:39 AM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Looks pretty impressive on radar
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/CIENFUEGOSA.GIF
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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There still doesn't seem to be a well-organized eyewall feature on radar. Looks like one tried to form about 90 minutes ago, but it looks a little disorganized again.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i think NO should be ok this time, they lucked out, they will prob get high surf and rain and wind maybe TS force, or the path is closer to New Iberia, LA...but i am thinking more toward Galveston, TX...the next big galveston storm?
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Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Based on the Max Flt level winds that I'm seeing from the Recon reports.
I wouldn't think that her windspeeds are high enough to support an eyewall.
Normal...normal, eyewall formation is near 90 mph. Or 78 kts. Surface winds.
Which should correlate to roughly 86 kts at flight level.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
There still doesn't seem to be a well-organized eyewall feature on radar. Looks like one tried to form about 90 minutes ago, but it looks a little disorganized again.
Looks that way to me too but it's a Cuban radar so I take it with a grain of salt  ...
seriously though... the last IR image also looks a bit ragged compared to the very impressive images from the ones before. Perhaps it's still organizing.
Latest recon is in!
GOOD BANDING FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH FL CNTR
ABOUT 30 PERCENT EYE FEATURE SSE THRU SSW
Pressure 992... still not a 'cane, but VERY CLOSE per the 11pm advisory.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 20 2005 02:49 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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H. 992 mb
P. AF304 0818A OB 04
MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 02:05:00 Z
GOOD BANDING FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH FL CNTR
ABOUT 30 PERCENT EYE FEATURE SSE THRU SSW
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 02:51 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I agree that an eyewall wouldn't necessarily be expected at this point, but one needs to be present before the rapid intensification that some are worried about can occur. The lack of organization in that direction seems to indicate that things aren't going too crazy yet, despite the very cold convection that formed earlier. That pulse of convection seems to be dying down a bit, but there will probably be another pulse again later tonight as the storm continues to intensify at least at a slow pace.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
DVORAK LATEST "2005SEP20 0145Z CI=4.4"
Recon inbound. 0205Z-Max wind (so far) at 22.53N/ 77.21W 51kts at 3164m or 10378ft.
Recon now outbound from center.
0225Z Max Wind at 23.45N/ 78.15W...59kts at 3175m or 10414ft. I know those coordinates look strange. I believe Recon came in from the NE and is flying toward the NW. That would put the Max Flt Level wind in the NW Quadrant...so far.
Thanks...I've been waiting for the recon info. Well then don't you think it will still be pretty iffy to go with hurricane strength at the 11pm? The last recon found 67kt max flt winds before the 8pm update and saw no reason to upgrade from TS strength. With the westward movement you'd expect the NW quad to be the fastest winds.
Steve Gregory's blog went with hurricane strength both at 11am and tonight at 7pm (after the recon with the 993mb and 67kt flt wind), and I disagreed both times.
Now unless pressure dropped considerably and they find max flt winds like 70kt, even with the improved presentation on satellite and close to 4.5, I don't see hurricane strength. The only argument might be to get the message out to people earlier who might not be evacuating, since we can assume it will get to hurricane strength by the 5am full advisory, but they'll all be asleep by then.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yeah...it shouldn't be a hurricane tonight, but I'm seeing another bloom of convection starting near the center of the old bloom from a few hours ago. It could be a hurricane by the time I wake up in the morning. I'm quite surprised it isn't yet.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Now unless pressure dropped considerably and they find max flt winds like 70kt, even with the improved presentation on satellite and close to 4.5, I don't see hurricane strength. The only argument might be to get the message out to people earlier who might not be evacuating, since we can assume it will get to hurricane strength by the 5am full advisory, but they'll all be asleep by then.
I think it'll come at 2am since it didn't at 11pm... or possibly earlier if the recon continues and finds stronger winds, which would not surprise me. This has happened before - a strengthening trend in the wee hours of the morning when no one was awake... dangerous situation indeed.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Full update posted to the blogs & now present on the main page as well. I'm afraid this might be starting a rapid intensification cycle, as there has been some discussion about over the past few pages of threads, and that we may awaken to something stronger in the morning. The conditions are certainly there; like did its first night in the Gulf, it'll take a couple more hours to get going, but it might well intensify overnight into a cat 1/2 storm.
I'll add more through the week as I've got the time, but as has been the norm lately, that's not going to be very often. Check Ed's shorter updates on a more frequent basis for quick updates on the storm.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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The Fl State folks seem to think will near the Keys as a Cat 2 possibly a minimal 3. Response teams (myself included) are being pulled from Mississippi deployment to be ready for a south FL deploy. is shaping up to be a serious storm for south Fl interests with significant risk from storm surge and flooding.
at least the keys is a shorter trip for me than MS!
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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