HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i wouldnt call the season after isidore... especially not with a hurricane forecast to be in the gulf next week. september 29th is usually a little early to say things are over. if recent years are a trend..
storms after september:
1998: lisa, MITCH, nicole
1999: IRENE, jose, , LENNY
2000: leslie, michael, nadine, subtrop 15
2001: IRIS, jerry, karen, lorenzo, MICHELLE, noel, olga
kyle is forecast to turn east.. globals seem to have won out in the long run. i'm not certain this will remain the case.. kyle is in a place where pulses in the ridge could push the storm either way.
94L.. has a lot of shear to negotiate. after a couple days if it has anything left, might organize.
HF 2220z29september
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CLOF
Unregistered
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Squirralee, are you asking me (Frank P) where I live?
I live on the beach in Biloxi Ms.... (on the west side of town a block from Edgewater Mall on the west side and about a mile from the MS Colliseum to the east) on Highway 90...
My house faces the GOM... I have a highway (four lanes) a seawall and about 300 feet of sand before I get to the water... we lost approximately 1.5 feet of sand beach (in height) from Izzy and every pier.... it takes an 8 foot tidal surge for the water to reach the base of the sea wall in front of my house... It takes a 20 foot tidal surge to get water in my house...
I don't think Izzy was the climax of the season either, especially with Lili projected to be a hurricane in the GOM... Actually Lili, as far as the USA is concerned, just might be the storm of the season... we'll find out for sure next week
If your not asking me, then nevermind.... hehe
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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There is a very good possibility that the season will be active up until November. This season has already surpassed alot of predictions.
Oh, by the way I have a seasonal prediction....
TAMPA BAY BUCS 2002 SUPERBOWL CHAMPS
Sorry Saints I know things are a little soggy right now!
Please forgive me I can't help myself!!!
Toni
-------------------- TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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CLOF
Unregistered
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Last post by me Frank P.
Latest test model runs are in almost total agreement... Lili heads towards the NGC.... has also been singing the same tune for the past day or so... 's latest run has it going inland at New Orleans - again .... impacts land at the mouth of the MS river in only 78 hours... that might be just a little premature....
Models ..... good for dating only....
Frank P
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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All kidding aside, It looks like Lili could be a very serious threat to your area again. At least you should be prepared thanks to Izzy.
Hopefully Lili will find a way to be down graded before she gets to ya, especially if she is as strong as they are now predicting.
Toni
-------------------- TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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clof were you in Biloxi when Camille came through
I was
It was scary.....................
Hope the Mississippi Coast never sees another like her
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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CLOF
Unregistered
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Yeah Toni, all my supplies are still on hand including extra ice in the freezer... All I'll have to do is put up my plywood... again.... I took it off as I'm in the process of remodeling my house... and it was in the way....
So hopefully I won't have to put it back up again this week... but if I do no big deal.... I don't think Lili will weaken as she approaches the coast.. my best guess is that it will continue to strengthen until it hits the coast... where ever that might be... always the chance this time of the year for a system to pull in some dry air from the west... that could hinder intensity if it were to come to fruition... not sure if that will happen... time will tell...
Everything I'm forecasting is based on models, climatology, and expected steering currents... big high projected over Florida should push the system to the WNW then NW and then N and then NE... timing is everything... heck anything and everything is possible.. another impact to the Yucatan, or the high pressure is so strong it pushes Lili all the way over to Texas... I'm sticking with the NGC but its not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination...
Tropical system forecasting is not an exact science...
Frank P
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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I am not saying there will be no other storms, I am saying that Isidore will continue to hold the title of the most obnoxious, difficult to figure out, full of thrills, spills, and near misses for the US. I am well aware of how October storms can be terrible. But everyone will have to admit that was around on this board last week, she was one heck of a good chase...
-------------------- weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Stevenotlogged
Unregistered
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>>SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE. LILY TO BLOOM INTO MAJOR HURRICANE WITH TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS ON THURSDAY LIKELY LANDFALL SPOTS.
Interesting. I was thinking this might be a bit west, but Joe nailed Isidore. I gotta give the man his due.
Steve
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CLOF
Unregistered
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Yeah, Joe B did a good job overall.... I guess it depends on how strong the high over Fl is going to get.... always possible for it to send the system to the TX/LA line... but this is not consistent with what climatology would do this time of the year... you would almost expect a northward turn for a tropical system in the GOM in October at some stage in the track.. I think it will be on the west side of NO, but not ready to say exactly where yet... I do believe that Lili will be a MAJOR storm, and possibly the storm of the season for the gulf coast... maybe Shawn will get his storm after all
Mary, I also agree with you as Izzy was a great storm as it relates to forecasting and overall hype....
Frank P
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Bill
Unregistered
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Trying again, system ate my first post...
I believe it will go further east...four reasons
1. has been incrementally shifting east last three (or four) runs
2. 98 for first time is east of --a big shift
3. Current motion is NW as Lili moves past Jamaica
4. Lili has been performing ala Isadore...hung up over land, slight shift south---but over Jamaica, not Yucatan, ie, further east (a teleconnect type argument ala Joe)
also--as was mentioend (and I was typing as my post vanished!) climatology will favor a quicker recurve at a lower latitude.
I would say NO is the FURTHEST west I might expect to see Lili go...more likely MS/AL/Fla Panhandle, with Big Bend the furthest east.
Agree it will be a a major storm....
IHS,
Bill
ps--NHC says system out by CV better organized..it was at the time of the but not now! Torn to shreds, may come out on the other side....
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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based on what i see now, if i had to make a best guess on where lili will end up later on.. i'd say the beaumont, tx area, or cameron parish in louisiana. give me a 300 mile section of coast to put it on.. matagorda, tx to grand isle, la. going with the westward option this time around... further west than isidore.
yes, do think it will be a major. might also hit the coast at a fairly high forward speed.. surge should be an issue.
kyle is looking healthier at this hour. will kyle indeed turn east and go back where it came from..? doubt it. probably just loop and head west again.
94L is officially smeared. active around it.. have to watch not just whatever is left, but for other disturbances to take shape as well.
HF 0132z30september
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Just to be a little bit different, and using somewhat of a gut feeling, I'll say Lili will make landfall in the Mobile-Pensacola area on friday am. The reasons are:
1) We'll be in October
2)If the wants to stick a fork in Kyle(based on the models), than maybe that ridge that should have sent Kyle SW is not as strong, and it's possible it's not going to build as far, or as strong, west. That's my gut talking.
3) In order to hit SW LA or Texas, Lili would have to run straight NW(315 degrees) or less, and never make a move to NNW,N, orNNE. See #1
4) The models are running like they finally figured out where Izzy is going to land.......come on. Surely something has changed just a little in two weeks.....See #1
5) I feel that maybe a little to much forward speed in the forecast. Just a little, at least for a storm that really won't get going for another day, and still isn't by Cuba and hasn't seen the GOM yet. Yet. Do think she will be a true high Cat1/ low Cat2.
Oh well, made my call. If I was living in the Mob/Pen area I would fell safer now
Joe in JAX
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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This is why I love this site
Thanks everybody for the input.
I love reading why and where the belefs are that the storm is going.
Sue
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Guess I'll go out on a limb tonight and rule out Tx as IMO Lili will not be a Texas storm... one reason .... climatology.... good enough reason for this time of the year... could be wrong and I'll grill up some crow if need be... but the most west this thing could go would be central LA.... if so, would have little if any effect on TX...
I still think the area around NO is prime... 75 miles either side... so I have right now a 150 mile target zone...Lili on that predicted wnw track tonight.. so models working OK so far...
Bill was right in his earlier post as the models have consistently shifted somewhat to the east, esp 98A... you really don't expect a big Bermuda ridge to develop this late in the season and be able to push a storm all the way to Texas... but anything possible ...
My probabilities as of tonight..E TX 10%, TX/LA line 20%, Cental LA 35%, SE LA 40%, MS coast 35%, Al coast 30%, Fl panhandle 25%....
Frank P... was able to log on as I cranked up the old backup puter tonight... newer model causing me some problems...
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Rickoshade
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Mobile Al
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heeere's Lilly!
too soon to decide where she goes....one thing fo sho...
major hurricane...
but who knows where...my daughter is getting married this weekend....here in Mobile, Al...this Sunday....
shoot...
and about 4-5 months ago...I told her>>> "an outside wedding during the heart of the hurricane season?"...not a good idea, honey."......
they never listen, do they?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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4 days out notes on Lili. The key with her is forward movement and speed. I think it's fairly cut and dry that the faster she moves, the more west her eventual landfall. I think the TPC's got it about right, but maybe a little fast. I like my MS solution for this year. I've personally seen rain from 4 or 5 storms to season-to-date due to 3 LA landfalls (plus remant Ed and bands from Fay). And while I'd love to call for a Bay St. Louis landfall for consistency sake, I think the landfall area is somewhere between 20 miles south of Gavleston Island to about Buras/Mouth of the MS R. Using that range, I'd call for a LA Landfall in the Ibera/St. Mary Parish area of LA (New Iberia/Morgan City) pm Thursday or am Friday. Under this scenario N.O. to MS/ALline probably see TS conditions and more flooding.
Confidence in this forecast is fairly low based on timing and strength of the ridge over the SE US. If it's a Friday day landfall, threat shifts to Houma-Mobile. Late Friday early Saturday argues for a Mobile - St. George landfall. This is all based on the idea that at some point she's got to make a northerly turn. This is typical for October Gulf storms (but hardly a rule in and of itself). I'll be watching this one with keen interest. Impact on the city is fresh in my mind from Isidore. The only thing we didn't get were winds.
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Well, Lili's just about ready to rear her ugly head. She should be a hurricane by later today. Look out gulf coast, this one's gonna gitcha. As Steve mentioned, this time someone is gonna get the damaging winds along with the rain this time. Keep your eyes and ears wide open.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Lili is already more north and less west than she should be according to the latest run... which means that you would have to pulled the track back to the east somewhat... Lili is also more north right now that where she should be according to BAMD, A98E and LBAR at this time... these models also might need to be pulled back to the east somewhat... in some cases she is 10 hours ahead of the northerly trajectory predicted by the models...
this could just be a wobble in the center and Lili could get back on model track later today, or maybe not... anyhoo, would not be surprised for the next model runs to be 40-60 miles more to the east... time will tell and certainly something for the SE LA, MS and AL/FL coast to monitor
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Toni
Unregistered
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Have a question for anyone who would like to answer.
If this big Atlantic high is suppose to be so strong that it is going to push Lili that far West and then we have Kyle out in the Atlantic going the opposite direction under this high, just doesn't make good common sense to me unless the high is suppose to become stronger in a few days. Any words of wisdom would be appreciated
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