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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Lake Ponchartrain [Re: Margie]
      #55596 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:17 AM

Quote:

That probably means some water being pushed into Lake Ponchatrain by the next 48 hours.



New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

...CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS TWOFOLD...DEVELOPING SWELLS AHEAD OF THE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE TIDES BY 2 TO 3 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN EAST WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ST BERNARD IF THE LEVEES AND GATES ARE OPEN. PARISHES AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL INCREASES OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND ENDANGER LOW AREAS SUBJECT TO TIDAL FLOODING.

SECONDLY...IN THE TRACK CHANGES ANY FURTHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL COMPOUND RECOVERY EFFORTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARISHES.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&version=2&max=51


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CoalCracker
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Re: Storm Radius [Re: Psyber]
      #55598 - Wed Sep 21 2005 12:29 AM

My son works at the Container Ship terminal at La Porte SE of Houston. Should Rita significantly impact the area, besides the pipeline and refinery problems, you're looking at serious troubles at one of the country's largest container ports. With the wind field and surge this storm could generate, economic impacts could be more severe than Katrina especially if the ship channel for tankers is negatively impacted. Worst case scenario is a sharp turn to the north offshore from Brownsville with a strong storm coming in almost perpendicular since that will pile water right up the channel. With a one year old daughter and living on the NW side of Houston, he's working till noon tomorrow, heading home to board up and driving to his in-laws in Fort Smith, AR. Took a little doing but I convinced him that he needs to protect himself and his family. Nothing else matters. Wherever this thing eventually goes, looks like a whole bunch of people are going to need our prayers and support.

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teal61
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00z GFS...a new twist [Re: CoalCracker]
      #55599 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:10 AM

the new run has shifted back to the southwest of Galveston, old news. However.... now it appears to stall out Rita in northeast Texas and the remnant low eventually moves back southward in response to a high building north of it. And on day six there is still a low located just north of Houston, and even on day 8+ there still seems to be some sort of reflection in the area. Unreal.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
edited to shorten table breaking link. Click on the GFS for 21 Sep 05.
Medium...then the MSLP 1000-500mb Loop.


Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 21 2005 02:17 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 00z GFS...a new twist [Re: teal61]
      #55600 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:22 AM

That could give something of an "Allison" scenario. Right?

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Beaujolais
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Re: 00z GFS...a new twist [Re: danielw]
      #55601 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:29 AM

Geezus, I hope not. Cause here in SELA we received significant flooding from Alison, only a TS. With Katrina and the problems caused by that storm, Rita will only exacerbate the problems in New Orleans and surrounding areas and spell BIG trouble for Texas!! I hope that does not happen.

--------------------
Displaced Cajun


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HanKFranK
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Re: 00z GFS...a new twist [Re: Beaujolais]
      #55602 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:54 AM

that's a first in the models... had been noticing the greater ambiguity in post-landfall track... there is that big high settling down that might shear off a lot of the storm and then leave the low-level feature to meander and rain itself out. just wait'n see if that recurs in future GFS runs or in other models... not a good scenario to be seeing.
HF 0554z21september


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danielwAdministrator
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Rita Now a Category 3 Hurricane [Re: HanKFranK]
      #55603 - Wed Sep 21 2005 01:56 AM

HURRICANE Rita INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 edited~danielw

...RITA BECOMES FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Rita IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND Rita IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY. ...


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danielwAdministrator
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Rita [Re: danielw]
      #55604 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:44 AM

The satellites are back on line, and it appears that Rita is undergoing an ERC. 0715Z IR imagery is showing a 'swirl' into the NW Quad of the storm.
This was visible on all of the imagery sources.

Recon was tasked for a 06Z fix. Apparently something changed as the last flight departed the storm around 0230Z.

The Eye is still visible on Key West NWS radar. NHC is probably able to gather some data from that site. Even at the extended range. I believe the max range on the WSR88D radar is 256nm.

Rita had a 20mb drop in pressure, from 20/1203Z to 21/0204Z. If we were to extrapolate the pressure drop.
Rita could be approaching 955mb. However, if she is in an ERC that wouldn't necessarily be an accurate estimation.

Moving nearly due west would place her near 84.22W.


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danielwAdministrator
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5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: danielw]
      #55605 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:50 AM

HURRICANE Rita ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 (edited~danielw)

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF Rita.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE Rita WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Rita IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND Rita IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/210832.shtml


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danielwAdministrator
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5 AM discussion..and electronics [Re: danielw]
      #55606 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:32 AM

I don't really like the wording in the Discussion. I know they are telling us what they are seeing. But Rita is still in the backyard of many along the Northern Gulf Coast.
Here is an excerpt from the discussion.
HURRICANE Rita DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 (edited~danielw)

...THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT...

...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. Rita SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210843.shtml

(note:Electronic problems plagued the weather services last night. A computer problem prevented the airport METARs from being fed into one of the main computer systems. As above, NHC said they had multiple electronics problems on multiple aircraft.
? Was there a solar flare last night??~danielw)


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LadyStorm
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Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: danielw]
      #55607 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:33 AM

My guess is that she will become a 5 before landfall. We have another monster on our hands.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Hugh
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Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: LadyStorm]
      #55610 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:07 AM

Quote:

My guess is that she will become a 5 before landfall. We have another monster on our hands.




This "conservative" wind speed estimation by the NHC is unnerving. When the guidance all shows that you have a 115kt storm on your hands, and the satellite imagery is bordering on superstorm (cat 5)... you set the intensity at 105kts? What the flub!?!? Granted, the discussion admits to the 105kts being conservative - most people don't know enough to read the discussion. They see "120 mph", and think "well, it's not to cat 4 yet, maybe it won't get there" (even though the NHC forecast 12 hours ago called for cat 4 intensity at 2pm this afternoon, not 4am). Stinks that it's out of Key West radar now basically... staged evacuations in an area that I would have considered well inland in Galveston (almost to the metro Houston area, from the map they showed?).

I'd ask if FEMA can handle this, but I know the answer. Really have to feel for the poor people in New Orleans who road a bus to what they thought was safety in Houston... and pray this thing doesn't make a hard right turn. I know, there's nothing to make it turn that way, but I'vve seen very odd things happen in the central GOM at times.

ETA: My guess, cat 5 by sunset. Who knows from there!

ETA2: From THE WEATHER CHANNEL... They're evacuating the Astrodome. Not shocking, but... *shakes head*...

ETA3: Stadium effect on IR now.. which isn't characteristic of a Cat 3, that I've ever seen. NW edge of convection is a tad ragged at the very edge, but I think that's just because the core is intensifying. We've got black back on the IR in the west and NW eyewall.

ETA3: and over 6 hours with no recon due to Gremlins. Ya think someone is trying to tell us something?
When is the next plane due into our storm of the week?


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 06:30 AM)


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TAZMAN
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Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: LadyStorm]
      #55611 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:10 AM


I cant help but wonder what it would have been like "back in the day" with a year like this.... and without the forecasting technology we have !! ..... also without sites like this one !! The whole Katrina episode would have been MUCH worse.

Thanks again to all here on this site... I mainly lay back and just take in all that you guys contribute !!


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Hugh
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Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: TAZMAN]
      #55612 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:39 AM

Quote:


I cant help but wonder what it would have been like "back in the day" with a year like this.... and without the forecasting technology we have !! ..... also without sites like this one !! The whole Katrina episode would have been MUCH worse.





This may be a really stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. We have a High Surf Advisory up for my area, as I indicated, and I'm about as far from the projected landfall as you can get. What are the potential impacts to the N.O. area simply from high surf, even if the storm treks on through to Galveston? With the levee situation, I imagine it's got to be bad even then.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Hootowl
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Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: TAZMAN]
      #55613 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:39 AM

Hubby was listening to the TV (channel 10 from Tampa I think) as I was getting ready this morning. (you need to know he is not into the weather like I am). He said they were talking to "the Gray guy" (lol) and he said that Rita would be the second worst hurricane of his lifetime after Katrina. Lets hope not. Please God no!

HF - I saw that "stall" on the loop this morning too. It looked strange that Rita would go inland and "reverse". Thought I was seeing things.

Stay aware, stay safe


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danielwAdministrator
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Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Hootowl]
      #55614 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:52 AM

Repost from earlier thread.

New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

...CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS TWOFOLD...DEVELOPING SWELLS AHEAD OF THE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE TIDES BY 2 TO 3 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN EAST WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ST BERNARD IF THE LEVEES AND GATES ARE OPEN. PARISHES AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL INCREASES OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND ENDANGER LOW AREAS SUBJECT TO TIDAL FLOODING.

SECONDLY...IN THE TRACK CHANGES ANY FURTHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL COMPOUND RECOVERY EFFORTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARISHES.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&version=2&max=51


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Hugh
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: danielw]
      #55615 - Wed Sep 21 2005 06:54 AM

Quote:

Repost from earlier thread.

New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005





Thanks Daniel... I saw it after I asked... definately NOT good. nothing about this hurricane season seems to have been good, though.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Hugh]
      #55617 - Wed Sep 21 2005 07:30 AM

Ok...

Dvorak estimates of 6.0 from SSD indicate a cat 4. Sat appearance looks excellent. We need a recon, and there won't be one for a few more hours, if they can find a working plane. There are supposed to be 6 hour fixes today - and the 06Z flight was canceled. Problem? 12Z fix is supposed to be the same flight that did the 06Z recon...er...I HOPE they get something up there soon. Maybe Airforce will get some of their hurricane hunters up with NOAA's not working?

GFS and CMC models are worrisome. GFS stalls the storm just after it crosses the coast...as if wind and storm surge weren't enough! CMC stalls the storm further north, over Oklahoma. We could have another Francis-like flooding situation coming up.


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Random Chaos
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Category 4 [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55618 - Wed Sep 21 2005 07:46 AM

NHC has officially upgraded Rita to a Category 4 hurricane:

"...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT Rita HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE..."

and

"SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT Rita HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Rita IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES."

Source: 8am Public Advisory


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Margie
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Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: danielw]
      #55619 - Wed Sep 21 2005 07:52 AM

Morning.

Well there was definitely some concern about solar flares starting about a week ago I think.

OK - so 32mb drop in 24 hours (yest this time pressure was 988mb and now 956mb) is explosive deepening. This is what Katrina would have done the first day out of FL, if she had not encountered the difficulties with dry air. Symmetry looks very good on sat and looking at the 10:15Z and she looks very strong, and clearly the signature of a solid Cat 4 "donut" on the visual sat image, even if the pressure has not caught up (and with the next recon I imagine we will see that it has).

Really, really interested to see the first daylight sat image to see the appearance of the CDO and the eye, to get a handle on where she is as far as intensity, because it does look very strong. I would not be surprised if the pressures were down into the mid 940s. That would be a drop of around 45mb in 24 hours! This sounds absurd, I suppose, and I would like to think that I'm not getting carried away into what I felt was an intensity frenzy happening all day yesterday, because I'm basing it on the sat image appearance from this morning, and trying not to speculate.

Now Rita has entered the part of the loop current coming up from the western end of Cuba, and this is the day that I thought she would be strengthening...only I didn't realize she would have already strengthened to a strong Cat 3 before this time. Also she moved faster than I anticipated a couple days ago so I had originally thought she'd be going over this area Wed aft into Thurs am. Luckily her path west at around 24 lat doesn't take her over the more extreme warm portion of the loop current that is up around 26-27 lat, but it seems now that this will be enough to put her at Cat 5 today. So by the end of today, or tomorrow morning, she should be at her strongest over the entire trip through the GOM, and will likely drop in intensity before landfall. However she may not drop enough to significantly reduce storm surge, and may still maintain major hurricane status at landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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