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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Cash
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Left out Info... [Re: Rabbit]
      #56511 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:42 PM

Rabbit:

I try not to post too much on this board unless there is information to contribute, but I have to respond to 2 of your recent posts.

Earlier, you argued that the storm was not looking better organized and dismissed what to everyone else seemed to be an obvious trend in the CDO gathering colder cloud tops more uniformly around the center and the CDO itself becoming more symmetric than earlier today.

And just now, you argue that the path of the storm is paralleling the NHC's forecast path. This is demonstrably wrong. If you would examine the forecast plots that overlay the satellite loops, you will notice that the initial plot is close to where the eye was, but at the end of the loop, the eye is obviously north (or right) of the NHC track.(or the next plot). There is no way to conclude reasonably anything but that the angle of current motion over the last several hours has a more northerly component to it than does the official forecast track.

There are all kinds of idle speculation and uninformed interpretations on the board now. I encourage everyone to restrict posts to this board to informational posts only as much as possible.

Michael Cash
(New Orleans, LA, now Baton Rouge, LA)


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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #56512 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:48 PM

I've been reading the posts on this site for over a year now (right after Charley). After having grown up in Oklahoma and living with tornadoes, it was interesting (to say the least) to be in an actual hurricane. I told my mother that it's kind of like being in an all-day-long tornado! Anyway, I have been learning so much about hurricanes, and weather in general, from the people who post on this site. I appreciate all the knowledge that so many of you share. I am finally posting for two reasons: 1) After seeing the devastation caused by Katrina, I have been following Rita closely to see if she will possibly strike in the same areas; 2) I have to express my confusion as to why Ralphfl continues to be allowed to post when he is so obviously has no tact. I believe that everyone should be able to express their opinions, based on what they are seeing (or even what they think they are seeing) but he just attacks everyone who doesn't see things his way.

ralph can be a pain, but provoking him just makes messes that i have to clean up. quit. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 22 2005 05:28 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Left out Info... [Re: Cash]
      #56513 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:48 PM

my mistake was comparing it to the forecast--with the lines it is WNW

i still do not see any NNW movement at the moment, EVERYTHING i see shows a NW movement. As for organization, the CDO is not as rounded on the NW edge, that is a true indication that dry air may be trying to intrude into the circulation. Also, there is a lot of dry air and shear out ahead of it. I am sticking to my 125-135mph landfall forecast

just checked NHC for 5pm update--for some reason it has the 1pm, and instead of teh advisories, the entire rest of the main page is inside of the Rita advisory box

Edited by Rabbit (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:51 PM)


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Left out Info... [Re: Cash]
      #56514 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:50 PM

Forecast models have shifted slightly E. Not too much change, though- food for thought.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Left out Info... [Re: Rabbit]
      #56515 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:51 PM

Poor NO.... just can't escape...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
forecast track [Re: rmcinorlando]
      #56516 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:51 PM

The new forecast track appears to be very slightly to the right of the previous track, but essentially unchaged.

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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Left out Info... [Re: rwjaco19]
      #56517 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:51 PM

Well Stated...Although I typically lurk (being a newbie and all) I have to agree that the bashing has gotten out of hand. Everyone is entitled to their opinion on where this monster is heading and can't remember seeing anywhere that the person who predicts closest wins the lottery...

WHEREEVER this thing ends up making landfall will be horrific for those living in that area and we can all only hope that they have heeded warnings and gotten out of harms way!!

I have learned a great deal from all of you and want to continue to hear others opinions (be they right or wrong) because each of you has different reasoning and has added input.

P.S. The zingers that are occasionally thrown are pretty funny sometimes, showing that there are some of you with a great sense of humor.

Anyway, can't we all just get along!?!

--------------------
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: forecast track [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56518 - Thu Sep 22 2005 04:53 PM

i see that the weakening has indeed continued, although to me it seems a bit odd for both the wind and the pressure to drop at the same time

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Re: forecast track [Re: Rabbit]
      #56521 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:02 PM

Quote:

i see that the weakening has indeed continued, although to me it seems a bit odd for both the wind and the pressure to drop at the same time




Actually in light of the ERC, it makes some sense.

The winds are dropping because the ERC disrupts the flow of the highest velocity winds surrounding the eyewall. That trend continues until the storm regains organization...

Now that the ERC has ended and the eyewall is closed off, pressure has normalized and as the new wall gets moving, you'll see the winds pick back up and the pressure go even further down (for now).

I think she has a shot at <900mb and 180+mph sustained winds again. But she's going to have to use every trick in the book to see that - and do so while she's over the eddy.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: not to belabor the point *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #56522 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:03 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 22 2005 05:05 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: forecast track [Re: tpratch]
      #56524 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:05 PM

I have not seen any indication that the ERC is over yet. One plane has been reporting concentric eyewalls, while the other has not. I'm not an expert, but I would expect to see at least some disruption of the eyewall on satellite before the ERC would be completed, but there has been no evidence of that... the CDO weakened and since recovered, but the eye has been well-defined the entire time so far.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 318
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: ralphfl]
      #56525 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:10 PM

Right now Rita is headed for us. She is supposed to come in around the Bolivar Pennisula. We have not left yet because traffic
is moving so slowly. My reservation is for tomorrow in Lufkin so we were thinking of leaving this evening around 10 or so.
Normally a two hour drive, I imagine it will take 8. There doesn't seem to be any news coverage about our area but between
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Port Acres, etc. we have a pretty significant population here. I've got 5 pets to get out so
it will be cooler at night. It must be 100 out there. I heard Rita might go in further east but right now the path is here. Of course,
we are worried. I am trying to gather together some phot albums but the main thing is the family and pets. If Rita decides to head
further north we will stay put. Does anyone know the confidence in the track?


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: forecast track [Re: tpratch]
      #56526 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:11 PM

It does look like the eyewall has got its thick concentric shape back and the convection has been rapidly expanding again on latest satellite images. I agree the intensity is likely to jump up again some short term - once she is n and w of the eddy there is little else to support strengthening and we all hope winds back down some before landfall.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: something against cajuns [Re: HanKFranK]
      #56527 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:11 PM

Quote:

way things are looking today, west of houston isn't going to work out. there's still model guidance taking it over there, but the consensus has shifted and the storm has continued to trend right of forecast track. so the folks who've been agitating for western louisiana are getting more and more credible.

...Agreed.

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zmdz01
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #56528 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:12 PM

Looks like the eyewall replacement cycle is still going on.

601
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A Rita OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING

Edited by zmdz01 (Thu Sep 22 2005 05:15 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: not to belabor the point [Re: ralphfl]
      #56530 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:14 PM

Ralph and to those of you who are bickering.. Please use the Private Message Feature

I'LL SECOND THAT NOTION. FUTURE DRAMA GETS GRAVEYARDED ONCE, AFTERWARDS I PROBATE FOR TWO DAYS. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 22 2005 05:25 PM)


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 232
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: forecast track [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56531 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:14 PM

Think that's funny, check this baby out:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL182005

its:

a> going to hit land and keep going north
b> going to hit land and make a 90 deg turn west
c> going to hit land and make a 90 deg turn east
d> going to hit land go north, do a 180, go south then do another 90 and go west.

I beleive the models have every direction covered. Hell the 89e has it going 90deg east, then doing a 180 west, then it just stops(disipates???)

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: forecast track [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56533 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:17 PM

ERC does not mean the eye disappears - the bands of most rapidly moving wind/clouds in the eyewall break up and are replaced by slower moving ones further out - it can look like the eye gets larger, but the peak winds at least temporarily slow

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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: forecast track [Re: Psyber]
      #56534 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:21 PM

12 hours ago all the models were in agreement, usually a sign of a sure track..now they are starting to look like Opelia....Beaumont you need to leave soon..don't count on it being less filled on the hwy tonight. Even here in Pcola we have had a couple of feeder bans and tides are way up..the effects of this will be widespread

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: forecast track [Re: Psyber]
      #56535 - Thu Sep 22 2005 05:24 PM

When the steering current get weak and storms slow you get all sorts of crazy output from the models - reference the track of Ophelia this year or Jeanne last year after she crashed into Hispaniola

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