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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: NHC [Re: nate77]
      #56841 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:09 AM

This is likely off-topic far enough to get moved or poofed - go ahead mods if it is....

Reports on that bus were that the people on board had portable oxygen tanks with them that were in use.

There is a WIDE misunderstanding of the dangers of these systems. They are in use by tens if not hundreds of thousands of patients daily, most suffering from emphasema (smoking related in most cases) and some other maladies.

Many people say that the oxygen tanks "caught fire". That's not true - oxygen doesn't burn. But it does greatly accelerate combustion, and things that would not normally burn WILL in the presence of pure - or nearly so - oxygen supplies.

A person with a live oxygen feed going from one of those portable tanks is a severe fire hazard. Any source of ignition on or near their person can cause a fire that will spread with lightning speed. An enriched oxygen atmosphere, as would exist in a bus full of people who are all using these kits, would turn a minor smoldering wire event (no big deal) into a conflageration in seconds.

I see people banging these units around in South Florida all the time with no regard at all to the potential risks involved. I don't know if its because they haven't been told, or if they just don't care. As a diver who mixes up oxygen into his scuba gas, I take EXTREME care when working with pure O2 because of the potential fire hazard -and the impossibility of putting out any fire that DOES start in the presence of pure O2 unless I can shut off the flow of gas - difficult or impossible when the supply tank is engulfed in flames.

Transporting ONE OR TWO people on supplemental oxygen in a bus with good ventilation is probably not a big deal - unless one of the systems gets banged around and starts leaking at an accelerated rate. However, over many hours if ventilation is sub-standard, or if the bus is full of people on these systems, there is definitely an enhanced risk of trouble.

This is a tragic situation but as with many there is an issue of planning (or lack thereof!) and lack of appreciation of the risks involved if the early reports - that the bus was full of folks on supplemental O2 systems - are accurate.


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Re: NHC [Re: Genesis]
      #56842 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:12 AM

I dont see how talking about this tragedy is off topic, it was actually storm realted cause they were being evacutaed due to the Hurricane.

Is that the first reported deaths from Rita?

Saddens me to think of being trapped on a full involved Bus fire and not being able to get out.


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: tpratch]
      #56843 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:13 AM

Only 3 weeks apart and less than 5 miles from each other- that's amazing. In 1995 we had 2 hurricanes (Erin and Opal) 2 months apart. Both times the eye went dead-center over my home in Navarre. I thought the odds were pretty spectacular then.

The bus that caught on fire carried older evacuees and many of them were accompanied by oxygen tanks- that's one of the reasons the fire was so bad.

Are my eyes deceiving me or has Rita taken a N jog over the last several frames? I know they have a tendancy to jog as they get closer to the coast but this seems like a pretty substantial one to me. Might just be my untrained eye, though.

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #56844 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:14 AM

The last time there were two category 5 hurricanes in the same year was 1961. Hurricanes Carla and Hattie formed in that year. In 1960 Hurricanes Donna and Ethel both reached Category 5 status, and within 11 days of each other. So 2 category 5 hurricanes in the same year has occurred before and it has happened in less than 3 weeks in the same year as well--although it is still incredibly rare to see.

List of All Category 5 Storms


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: NHC [Re: Genesis]
      #56845 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:16 AM

first off, that link was obviously created after 2002, but still states that Andrew never reached Cat V status, so you can add that one in there as well

It looks to me like Rita is still in a weakening trend, the eye has become very ragged on satellite and the western edge of the circulation is beginning to erode, indicating that dry air may begin to wrap into the eye later today. This is the reasoning i have had all along, and it appears that it is playing out. That said, i still forecast landfall intensity 125-135, if not lower.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: tpratch]
      #56846 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:17 AM

This will be the 4th Gulf US landfalling hurricane to reach Cat 4 in 12 months..Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #56847 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:17 AM

Has the RECON reported back for the 10:00AM update yet?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: tpratch]
      #56848 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:18 AM

There is no sign of increasing shear affecting the storm yet and outflow seems to have improved slightly, if anything. However, as long as Rita continues to have an eyewall malfunction, it isn't going to do much intensification and the max wind speed will continue to be less than what the central pressure would suggest. Rita may also be a little more susceptible to wobbles as long as the eyewall is in a state of trying to reorganize.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: pryord1]
      #56849 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:19 AM

Quote:

Only 3 weeks apart and less than 5 miles from each other- that's amazing. In 1995 we had 2 hurricanes (Erin and Opal) 2 months apart. Both times the eye went dead-center over my home in Navarre. I thought the odds were pretty spectacular then.

The bus that caught on fire carried older evacuees and many of them were accompanied by oxygen tanks- that's one of the reasons the fire was so bad.

Are my eyes deceiving me or has Rita taken a N jog over the last several frames? I know they have a tendancy to jog as they get closer to the coast but this seems like a pretty substantial one to me. Might just be my untrained eye, though.





No she is still going WNW to NW yet as if she was going north Rick and his gang would be back on in force but as of this moment she is tracking along to the wnw to NW with the eye not looking good but some convection trying to get going again.

rick had no support and he knows it didn't work, so lay off. ever noticed how nobody likes your tone? you're always knocking everyone else but don't really have the answers yourself. being a bully may make you popular in the third grade, but doesn't make you many friends outside of grammar school, ralph. ease off the pressure, mon. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:29 AM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: clyde w.]
      #56850 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:21 AM

There is one name not listed on the list of CAT 5's and that would be Andrew that hit in 1992.

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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: ralphfl]
      #56851 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:21 AM

CNN is reporting that a levee has already broken in the 9th ward of NO- the industrial area levee. Here we go again...

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: pcola]
      #56852 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:23 AM

pcola--go back one more month and you can make it 5 with Charley, although technically Ivan and Dennis landfalled as cat 3's.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
under 24 til landfall [Re: Genesis]
      #56853 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:24 AM

rita has continued to slowly spin down for the last 30 hours or so. pressure has come up 33mb from its lowest point... if a 1mb/hr rise continues, the landfall pressure would be in the neighborhood of 950-955mb. don't expect it to rise quite that high, but a landfall pressure 945-950mb seems feasible. based on the continued formation of our wind maxima and the slow expansion of the windfield, i'd expect that Rita has lost its ability to reintensify. every eyewall cycle works dry air into the core and loosens it up, flattening the windfield. so, Rita will be quite a windstorm, but not with the localized extreme destruction characteristic of storms like Charley and Andrew. on the other hand, it has been so strong for so long over the gulf that an Ivan-like event near beaumont, over to cameron parish, is likely. high island is likely to be the equivalent of gulf shores last year, with beaumont taking pensacola's role. catastrophic damage no, but there is likely to be extensive wind and surge damage to the beaumont/port arthur/orange area. storm should landfall around daybreak saturday.. probably rated a 3, but with a pressure at or close to 4 status... and somewhat higher tides than normally assigned to a 3.
elsewhere philippe has nosed hard left around the deep layer low to the south and is edging bermuda. t.s. warnings were raised there at 9am. philippe is swinging into a higher shear zone, so it is likely to finally lose its definition, perhaps becoming absorbed into the subtropical system to the south. that could be stan in a day or two if it can develop a convective core... models still split on whether to send it ne, or stall it and send it west next week. most take it ne, or a very weak trough west.
gfs showing a scatter of potential systems, all appearing weak.. except for a consistently progged feature that develops near the end of the month in the eastern caribbean and drives wnw under a retrograding mid level ridge... forecast strong off along the east coast the first week of october. should this scenario occur, it is possible that a tropical system will threaten the s.e. us in around ten days time. some version of this feature has appeared in pretty much every recent run of the GFS.
there are other features appearing in the east atlantic on model runs as well.. not the least of which is the well-defined tropical wave near the cape verdes right now. it's late september, but that system looks good enough to develop, if it can maintain its integrity as it moves westward the next few days. there are also weak rumblings of a western caribbean feature in Rita's wake... low-latitude westerly flow is backing over central america right now.. so once Rita weakens the setup is there for surface low pressure to form. not much model support for this, however.
okay, what was the punchline? cat 4 less than a day from smacking beaumont as a weaker but still potent hurricane, and lots of little features that could potentially develop over the next week or two.
HF 1424z23september


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: ralphfl]
      #56855 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:25 AM

Ralph, Give it a break man. Rick made an observation and prediction based on that observation. He was wrong...to an extent...

FYI...Rita does appear to have a more northerly component in the last few frames. Not necessarily NNW, but does seem to wobble more N than W recently.

Edited by John C (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:43 AM)


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NorEaster
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Pressure Drops along the Coast of Texas [Re: MikeC]
      #56857 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:27 AM

Hello Everyone, First time poster, long, long, long time flhurricane observer...

My resume in short (NWS employee for a year, NBC4 Weather employee for a year)

Taking pressure readings along the coast of Texas may be an arbitrary method of forecasting where the eye might eventually make landfall, but its one in which many of us have used for years...

Based upon current readings:

Gavelston Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport Barometer: 29.71" (1005.9 mb

High Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Lake Charles Regional Airport Barometer: 29.70" (1006.3 mb)

Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)


I'll be monitoring this...but it looks like Gavelston's pressure drop is the lowest.


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56859 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:33 AM

Good point. The Note at bottom of the link states that Andrew never achieved category 5 status. This must be a case in which the fact that it was upgraded 10 years later never got updated on this site. All of the internal storm name links go to Weather Underground, so I think the data is accurate otherwise.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: jth]
      #56860 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:38 AM

Quote:

Ralph, Give it a break man. Rick made an observation and prediction based on that observation. He was wrong...to an extent...

FYI...Rita does appear to have a more northerly component in the last few frames. Not necessarily NNW, but does seem to wobble more N than W recently.





sorry but i see a true NW motion of the EYE in the last few frames.You are welcome to what you think but even Joe on Fox right now just said more west then north but think what you must.

Edited by John C (Fri Sep 23 2005 10:45 AM)


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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
CNN News Alert [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56861 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:38 AM

I just got the below news alert e-mail from CNN


" Rising water due to Hurricane Rita washes over levee in New Orleans hard-hit 9th Ward, Army Corps of Engineers says".


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Re: CNN News Alert [Re: Lsr1166]
      #56862 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:44 AM

The water rising in No is something they expected. They did say that City will get water but no where near to what they have.

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas [Re: ralphfl]
      #56863 - Fri Sep 23 2005 10:46 AM

You are in fact correct. It was a wobble NW-NNW and now one to the W or even WSW...Therefore, a WNW-NW motion. I think the NHC has been real good all year and is continuing now. Looks like it will hit around the TX/LA border. Though Joe B is back to his doomsday self saying he still worries about a direct hit on Galveston.

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