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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Bill
Unregistered




Slowing down, turning north?
      #5727 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:06 PM

It seems Lili has suddenly slowed down and is hardly moving, north if anything...or am I seeing things?

IHS,

Bill


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BabyCat at work
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5728 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:23 PM

I noticed that too BIll, a tiny jog. You can watch this thing frame by frame on the Navy's satellite.
But I have to say the margin for error as far as this thing hitting the Houston area is too close for comfort. Hope Mom decided to take a drive north.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
LOL Bill...
      #5729 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:25 PM

That's the ultimate disaster scenario for N.O. As I noted yesterday, it's 72 hours to evacuate the city. They don't have 20 as it is now. Bob Breck's key was the lattitude when it crosses 90. If it crossed 90 at 25.2, then it was on NHC track, anything above 25.2 would put it to the right. I haven't looked at the sat lately but I guess I need to go do that now!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Storm of the century .... sure
      #5730 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:32 PM

Here's my rationale... it could be the storm of the century to the people most affected by it... I'm not saying from the year 2002 to 2102 per se.... but it's affect on the individuals during their life time...

Case in point... I'm 50 .... I've experienced my storm of the century during Camille... I doubt that I ever experience another one.. at least I hope.... I've been through some strong Cat 2s but that about it... statistically speaking, and you know your statistics, the chances of me going through another Cat 5 is extremely remote...

HF... how many Cat 4s have you been through??? ... I mean taked a direct hit from it... in the eye wall sort of thing... probably not very many... it is not that often that someone experiences a direct hit with a Cat 4 and even less with a Cat 5.... Of course this is all speculation as Lili has not yet gotten to Cat 4.... but IMO, if it does, then she most likely will be the storm of the century for those poor people who will go through her eye wall and areas just east .... Just like Andrew was the storm of the century for the residents of S Fla and Hugo was the storm of the century for those people in SC that experienced his fury.... Lili might just be the storm of the century for SW LA... my opinion....


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: LOL Bill...
      #5731 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:33 PM

It will definitely be north of 25.2 when it crosses 90. It should be more like 26 or 26.2. (at the current motion)

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Slowing down, turning north?
      #5732 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:48 PM

Looking at the GOES loop doesn't look like it slowing down to me.... if it is, its not that evident yet... unless I don't have the latest images to look at.. it still looks NW I could be using old frames... Using the GOES 15:45 UTC IF I have the center at 25.14N and 89.16W

If someone has a better link to show this slowdown I'd sure like to view it...

ciao



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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: LOL Bill...
      #5733 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:50 PM

I have been following your thread. Since it appears the storm will be north 25.2 before it gets to 90 what does that mean for the people on the northern gulf coast.? Some of us (me) are not very bright about reading maps even though I know where LA, Missi,Ala and by all means, Texas is. Please some one lay it out for us. Iam not on the northern Gulf coast but my family is.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Kimmie at work
Unregistered




Re: I'm not really sure...
      #5734 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:51 PM

Baton Rouge is beginning to prepare for the possibility of hurricane force winds beginning tomorrow morning. The local weather in BR is reporting that this is a very serious situation and that all residents south of I-10 between BR and Lake Charles need to be prepared soon! Traffic here in town is horrible. And, I heard that they are getting out of New Iberia by the truckloads! Heading for Alexandria. Louisiana, stay safe, and listen to your local stations for watches and warnings. Kimmie

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Depends on where they are...
      #5735 - Wed Oct 02 2002 12:54 PM

It doesn't mean a whole lot for me other than I'll be closer to the center (25-50 miles?) and likely to see a little more rain or wind. Of course he put out that information at 7am and obviously NHC did adjust their track a bit to the right. One of my attorney's down in Lafayette said they're reporting down in Acadiana that Intracoastal City is probably where it's going in - putting him on the East side. Lafayette is pretty high (by LA standards), but they're sure to experience widespread power outages and probable gusts to Hurricane force. Lafayette metro is about 350k (Lafayette, Broussard, Youngsville, Cade, Scott, Jeanerette, New Iberia, etc.) and likely to be the most heavily affected area as it looks now.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Bastardi's noon update totally disagrees with TPC...
      #5736 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:00 PM

He likes a westerly solution 60 miles further over than NHC. He's nearly convinced. To me, I see much more NW at this point. Who knows?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Just watched Bastardi's TU from this morning...
      #5737 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:06 PM

He proposed a very interesting solution of the European Model which basically brings a positively tilted trof that MISSES Lili and sends her right over New Orleans on Saturday. Stranger things have happened, but the ECMWF was extremely good with Isidore. As Joe said, "food for thought."

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
pressure drop
      #5738 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:20 PM

latest recon found 941 and a 131kt flght level wind. WOW!!!!!! I don't understand Joe B. logic on this one. Lili has been consistently right of the models tracks (allbeit barely off). I believe she is right of the current track already. New Iberia is still my target if not a little east of there still. She is turning more and more north with each wobble. I just hope the turn NE waits until after landfall. If it occurs a little sooner, look out. I must admit I never thought she would get this strong. Goog luck to all.

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FlaRebel
Unregistered




Re: LOL Bill...
      #5739 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:34 PM

No doubt it will be north of 25.2 when it crosses 90. It's already at 25.2 or better and still has almost a degree to go to get to 90. Looks like a wobble or a slight job to the north.

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Brett
Unregistered




quick q
      #5740 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:40 PM

Whats the best site you guys are all using to watch the storm frame to frame? I am not sure if the ones I look at are updated frequently enough.

Thanks


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BabyCat at work
Unregistered




Re: quick q
      #5741 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:43 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
I've been using this website but I'm curious what others watch, too.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
NNW Movement
      #5742 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:51 PM

Last few frames show a turn more NNW. Like Joe B I am a believer in patterns. This year, the pattern has been for these storms to find a home near 90. I don't see Lili deviating far from this pattern. I don't believe she will make it past 92. If i'm wrong, I will eat my grilled crow on the grill while tailgaiting in the rain in Tuscaloosa this weekend.

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FlaRebel
Unregistered




Re: quick q
      #5743 - Wed Oct 02 2002 01:51 PM

This is the one I've been looking at.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html


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FlaRebel
Unregistered




CAT 4!!
      #5744 - Wed Oct 02 2002 02:12 PM

Holy smokes! Hang on folks!

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Run to the hills!
      #5745 - Wed Oct 02 2002 02:26 PM

Cat 4 possible Cat 5. I would not be taking a chance if i was in Galveston to NO. Anything within 15-20 miles of the coast, i would be loading up the car and heading inland. I would not want to take the chance of a wobble her or there bringing the most intense 25 miles of this storm overhead. I can see a Hugo type situation with a 10-20 mile wide stretch of heavy damage for up to 50 miles inland along the center of the storm. My advice to you if you are reading this board with in 15-20 miles of the coast in the warning area: Turn off the computer, pack the car and GO!

--------------------
Jim


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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: CAT 4!!
      #5746 - Wed Oct 02 2002 02:32 PM

A cat 4 indeed! She's now a potential killer if she wasn't already. All in the warning area should get out now while you still can. The outer bands are becoming visible on the lake charles long range radar. Time's running out.

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