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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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rickinmobile
Unregistered




if it turns north within 4-5 hours
      #5827 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:02 PM

Then it will hit New Orleans...and even if it doesn't.........still....

anyone as nervous as I am about this?....is this the big one?...
if it misses New Orleans by 50 miles to the west of it...
then they are on the east side...

does anyone want to discuss New Orleans under 20 feet of water? Why not?...it is what is about to happen!!!!!!!!!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: cat 5
      #5828 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:04 PM

If my memory doesn't fail me, and often it does when talking to my wife (hehe), Cat 5 Camille's eye was 8 miles in diameter for comparison.... Lili is one tight storm...

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: if it turns north within 4-5 hours
      #5829 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:06 PM

Rick, If that were to happen the NHC would be up the creek without a paddle. Are they really under a TS warning?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: estimated fix at 0015Z
      #5830 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:09 PM

Tom5r.... if Lili is moving to the NNW how can it hit the Lake Charles area? Isn't LC in SW LA?

I would think it would hit at a minimum central La and not SW LA if it is moving NNW...?


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rickinmobile
Unregistered




NHC
      #5831 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:09 PM

they will blame the NHC...but the problem is they are leaning heavily on the AVN, GFS...all have done a good job...but the leaning has been to the west....and the actual landfalls have been to the east of their projections...hence..why I think this will be quite east of the "experts"...

remember...historically speaking...

at 20 hours to landfall...the NHC is (ON AVERAGE)....a 100 miles off of actual target...

FYI


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Raceland...
      #5832 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:13 PM

That's in northern Lafourche Parish about 30 minutes wsw of here. It's down in 'da ba-YOOs'. My sister lives in Lockport. There are many waterways, alligators, bayous, snakes, etc. Looks like Lafourche is going to be in the eastern fringes of the eyewall (not the inner-wall). You guys are in for some rough weather down there!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4366
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Raceland...
      #5833 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:16 PM

Hey Steve let me personally wish you luck tomorrow man, and everyone near ya.

Let us know how things go as soon as you reasonably can.

Best,

- Mike C.


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dav
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5834 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:17 PM

someone said 90.5 thats not west thats east

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
the jog/admission
      #5835 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:18 PM

hey, in all fairness.. thought i should mention this. the nnw jog the storm took this evening has brought it much closer to the coast, cut down landfall time, brought the landfall point east. that said, i still dont think this comes close enough to new orleans to give them more than gale force winds and squalls. looks like the core goes through vermillion, iberia, st. mary parishes. so, in other words.. new iberia and lafayette get it tomorrow morning. this is a worse scenario than the cameron parish idea i had earlier.. of course not to anyone in lake charles or the golden triangle. steve in N.O has been calling this strike point.. he gets a cookie.
so there, i was wrong. he he. southern, not gonna argue with you... just saying you guys made a bigger deal out of this thing than need be.. it isnt coming for you, you arent going to feel much from it. rickinmobile.. does everything have an ultra dramatic conclusion, man? seriously, im trying to be dry and accurate (but not dull).. youre breaking the seventh seal in revelation. my head cant take all the hype. it just isnt going to hit new orleans, theyll get theirs some other time. this one is.. now central louisiana, it seems.
here's my 12 hour out forecast:
135mph, intracoastal city. center crosses marshes south of there starting around 9am and is up near abbeville around 11. i probably get within 20miles, certainty within 50. but i dont get a cookie.
sorry if i offended anyone earlier.. i'll try and not make generalizations. just dont be so ready to take offense, especially if something might not apply to you.
a'ite, nuff said.
HF 0116z03october
~12 hours to landfall
by the way, doppler gal.. you in enterprise?


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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: estimated fix at 0015Z
      #5836 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:24 PM

The center is really clear on the NO radar but I cant seem to get back in. Must be overloaded. You can see the center on the lake charles radar too, and get an idea where its heading.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klch.shtml


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rickinmobile
Unregistered




get a grip hankfrank
      #5838 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:25 PM

gee hankfrank...you have shifted 200 miles in a few hours time....

Nawlins...not hype......this thing can go over New Orleans...and all the experts are gonna kill people...cause they won't be humble enough to imagine the worst...and when LIVES are at stake...only an ego would call a killer hurricane at a certain point....a day in advance...everyone knows I am kidding...and no one will listen to me..(hopefully)

my point is this.....if it COULD hit New Orleans...WHY HAVE THEY NOT CONSIDERED THAT THEIR JOB IS TO SAVE LIVES
not show how "smart" they are...



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cappycat
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
Re: Update from the City...
      #5839 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:27 PM

Justin,

We are pretty safe, and actually pretty well elevated. Where the house is built our property is 8-9 ft above sea level, and the house is built up an additional 4 ft. Plus our house is actually built up into the loft of a steel framed barn...so 14 ft up in the air. The builder says it will sustain 175 mph winds. I hope he is right. We are boarded up tight and braced, though the wind can flow fairly easily under the barn loft.

Raceland took a direct hit from Betsy and a glancing blow from Andrew. I don't remember all the smaller storms, but there have been several. This particular piece of property regularly floods, but not where the house is. The back part of our pastures had between 4-6 ft of water after Isidore and I was piroguing and fishing out carp in the front yard after a levee broke after Juan, I think. No water near the house though.



Edited by cappycat (Wed Oct 02 2002 09:31 PM)


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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: NHC
      #5840 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:27 PM

From what I am looking at, it's definitely east of track.
The NHC is not wrong, though. When they put up a track, they give a wide area of divergence to account for errors. As early as this morning, Lake Ponchartrain was still in the possible swath. So an easterly ingredient was allowed for.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: NHC
      #5841 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:41 PM

True, but wouldn't you think that as close as this is, and it was obvious even yesterday, that they would have at least put up a hurricane watch for New Orleans? I have almost always defended the NHC, because they have a very difficult job of balancing uncertain possiblities against panicing the public, or the multi-million dollar cost of evacuating a city like New Orleans. But the potential loss of life if they are wrong is too much to comprehend. The experts and their models are very likely to be right, but what if they are wrong?

Bill


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rickinmobile
Unregistered




eyewall collapsing...and now rebuilding?
      #5842 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:42 PM

either weakening...or about to enter the CAT 5 status...

whatchyall think?


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dennis
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5843 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:43 PM


Moving due north!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
getting weird...
      #5844 - Wed Oct 02 2002 09:46 PM

New Orleans WDSU Channel 6 met just read on the air a special statement from the NWS that stated (after consultation with the NHC) that Lili was still on a NW track and expected to go inland in Central La, not SE La... apparenty some of the local weather mets had created a stir in the city as they were reporting what we were posting about the hint of the NNW track... and even with a slight shift to the east in track the NWS stated that NO would not be expected to get hurricane force winds

Even the met said it was very unusual for the NWS to put out such an alert to be read on the news..... Bottom Line NWS and NHC still confident of a landfall in C LA....

they better be...


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: getting weird...
      #5845 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:00 PM

Obviously...they read our posts!

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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: NHC
      #5846 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:00 PM

BillD ..... Yes, I think a watch would have been prudent, but what good is a watch in that time frame when it takes 72 hours to evac?

A Hurricane Watch: is issued for coastal area when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24-36 hours.

After Floyd, they are way more worried about people being trapped in gridlock on the roads. I guess it's the lesser of two evils!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
The Statement....
      #5847 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:07 PM

NOUS44 KLIX 030125 CCA
PNSNEW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
820 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE CHARLES AND
MOBILE ARE IN VERY CLOSE AND CONTINUAL COORDINATION WITH THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN CURRENT AND ONGOING TRENDS REGARDING
HURRICANE LILI. THE FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL OFFICES AND THE National Hurricane Center ARE
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS USED BY YOUR LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS FOR
CRITICAL DECISION MAKING.

FOR THE SAFETY OF THE PUBLIC...PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS OF YOUR SOURCE
OF INFORMATION. ENSURE THAT THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ISSUED IN
THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS IS USED IN MAKING
YOUR PERSONAL ACTION DECISIONS AND COMES FROM YOUR CERTIFIED
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES.

AS OF 7 PM CDT...THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY POSITION OF HURRICANE LILI
WAS 26.6N LATITUDE...90.3W LONGITUDE. HURRICANE LILI WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. THIS MOTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY CONFIRMED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DESPITE ANY TEMPORARY TRENDS THAT MAY BE
APPARENT IN SHORT-TERM SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.

TO PROVIDE CLARITY...STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL STATEMENTS
AND HEED TO YOUR LOCAL PARISH AND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS AND AUTHORITIES.

TROTTER

Ahem...could they have been a little less subtle?

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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