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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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dav
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5848 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:12 PM

its not moving nw its moving n, maybe just a little left of north.

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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: The Statement....
      #5849 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:15 PM

My feelings are hurt!

Maybe that disclaimer needs to be bigger!


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: NHC
      #5850 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:16 PM

Rick, I agree, even yesterday was too late to issue a hurricane watch. Just seems irresponsible to me to take this kind of risk, although I have been on your side of this "argument" on many occasions in the past.

Bill


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5851 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:18 PM

Looks like NW to me, here's the latest loop.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

All you guys up there in LA/MS and whoever else
has to fell the monstrosity of Lili, you guys are all in
my prayers. Stay safe and God Bless!!!

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
n or nw?
      #5852 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:18 PM

Im not sure... would really go with its beginning to look more north... can see the outter bands of moisture being "pulled" north and even just east of north but for now the eye is still on target... question is..is it changing.

Even wondered if eye wall looks different cause its leaning differently..

but think anyone should be real careful before saying n or nne w/o being SURE... Sure NHC has a real tough time tonight making close calls..

But I see the north part of the storm no longer leaning nw but north and it worries me a lot

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Thanks MikeC...
      #5853 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:19 PM

We think we'll be okay here in the city. Thanks for the forum. Like I said in an earlier post, this was our year (ours being Louisiana). Fortunately, this is the only storm with any real potential. I feel bad for the folks down in Franklin, Morgan City, Berwick, Patterson and all over southern St. Mary Parish. They took the brunt of Andrew and are likely to take a far worse hit from Lili. The only good thing is that the storm is moving so quickly that it's going to blow in and hopefully out of there within 10-14 hours after it starts.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: getting weird...
      #5854 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:20 PM

This is my list of things I know, and things i think at 10pm EDT.

1)Lili has passed 90.7W. That is west, dav.
2)She still is moving to NNW.
3)She is going to leave a very real path of destruction when she makes landfall, which appears is going to happen eariler than expected.
4)The pressure is up to 942MB
5)The U.S. is going to get hit by a hurricane for the first time in three years.
6)The Weather Channel has gone beyond the point of trying to get offical information to the public, although they don't seem to be alone in that respect. The hype is just about as bad as a made-for-tv movie, with Jim C. in the starring role, as usual.
7)I hope everyone in LA comes through this OK, and that this other Bush doesn't wait four days to send help like daddy did to us in FL.

The things I think:
1) New Orleans will live to see another day.
2)This will be the second time this year the gators get whipped by the hurricanes. (That's a football joke, by the way)
3)They sell way too much beer in Alabama.
4)That I agreed with HankFrank twice in the same night

Ready, take aim, flame.

Joe in JAX


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Raceland...
      #5855 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:20 PM

Really Steve... be careful and don't take chances...stay safe.

Want to see u back here posting info

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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DopplerGal
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: S. E. Alabama
Re: the jog/admission
      #5856 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:25 PM

No, not Enterprise.

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: getting weird...
      #5857 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:26 PM

I agree with the NNW movement. I loaded images from the offshore radar between 850ET and 940ET, took those into my PaintShopPro installation, then wrote the pixel coordinates of the center from both endpoints down on a sheet of paper. (All that is guesswork, I admit).

Then I went to the trigonometry. This part wasn't guesswork. You take the pixels of the centers from both radar images, figure an inverse tangent, and you come up with 330 degrees, plus or minus 0.1 degree or so. How's that possibly NW?

I think the NHC is trying to preach an overall heading, but is ignoring the recent heading, which at this point is just as important. Sure, Lili has been trending NW for awhile, but when we're down to the "final hour" so to speak, if it's going 330, which I think it is, that can change things drastically.

Just my thoughts. I wish everyone in Lili's path (either 315 or 330 degrees, whichever) the best of luck and my prayers are with them....

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


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dav
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5858 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:26 PM

joe pub i said it wasnt moving n.w. and it isnt moving that way ok!!!!!!

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rickinmobile
Unregistered




the red stick
      #5859 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:30 PM

either weakening...or rebuilding it's eyewall. unless it turns north...new orleans is spared...sure hope so....

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
dav
      #5860 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:32 PM

>>someone said 90.5 thats not west thats east<<

Bring more than a Bic lighter to a firefight, please


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Hurric and mistake I made in post earlier
      #5861 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:32 PM

asked me if i made a mistake on some post saying east vs west not even sure which post so ignore it. maybe on kyle, not sure

im sick tonight with a high fever and keep falling asleep, every time i wake up she has jumped another category.

Came home and she was a cat 3, slept again with TWC on in background, came on to stare at eye and she was a cat 4, a strong cat 4.. telling u afraid to go to sleep

I'd edit the post but not up for looking at it.

Maybe was about Kyle? Or concerned that some models earlier showed lili veering ne just before landfall.. think that was this morning or last night.. the front doesn't look like its made that much progress so just watch it on radar.. and wait and see.

Anyway, earlier had problems posting at work.. I was logged in every time i posted it told me there already was another LoisCane. Sort of logs me out, maybe some fliter they have at work.. not sure. Still learning

Just wanted to tell the person worrying about the Andrew rumors to save the discussion for a cold day in January when we have not a historical landfalling storm. Come on..ya know... Theres a time and place for everything!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Comment on Storm Surge
      #5862 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:38 PM

Everyone on tv is talking about how its a basically dry storm compared to Isidore and there is the danger of letting their guard down to the danger from Storm Surge.

Storm surge is the constant beating of the water onshore and inland from a storm...days away... for days... moving at a fast speed... do you know what a storm surge is from a Cat 4 or strong 3 (in case it lowers) and its the winds with sustained winds OVER on TOP of the waves... its not about a storm being "wet" or full of rain or the size... where ever Lili hits will have wind driven waves on top of the storm surge in a low lying area..



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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dav
Unregistered




Re: Upper Texas. Louisiana Prepare Today
      #5863 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:38 PM

hey joe pub read what i said its not moving nw its moving just a little west of north. dont kid yourself ok. dont burn up.

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: the red stick
      #5864 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:40 PM

Noted that the pressure has climbed to 942mb, but the latest flight level winds are up to 141kts. I believe this is the highest found so far today. Looks like we'll continue to see some fluctuations til landfall.

I have an 18 month old daughter named Avery (who keeps me from posting most of the time). I noticed on my map of LA that there is a tiny coastal community called Avery Island SW of New Iberia (really tiny, on the north end of Vermillion Bay), so that's my call for landfall...Avery Island.

I hope for the best for those in the path...this is a city killer...ask the folks in Homestead or Florida City about it. Some communities name is about to become infamous for a reason they would just as soon forget...


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: the red stick
      #5865 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:43 PM

Advisories are coming out.
NHC has Lili moving NNW/330 degrees at 14k


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
NNW
      #5866 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:44 PM

NHC says NNW movement as of 11 pm.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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rickinmobile
Unregistered




official track NNW
      #5867 - Wed Oct 02 2002 10:45 PM

surge could spread 25 miles inland...
forecast track officially has it inland in 72 hours...inland at 91.5 W...Franklin La...east of New Iberia...west of New Iberia...opening of Vermillion Bay...

it will continue shifting east, I think.....

cat 4-5.... Baton Rouge in deep doo dooooooo


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