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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression
      #57108 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:00 PM

10PM Update
Rita has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
At 10PM CDT, Rita was located about 40 miles north of Shreveport.LA. Moving north at 10 mph.

3PM Update
Rita has become a tropical storm while inland and is located near Jasper, TX. Further weakening is expected, though the storm will likely produce localized flooding inland across the ArkLaTex region over the next few days.

11:30 AM Update
Rita continues to weaken this morning. Storm surge effects in Beaumont and Port Arthur were minimal, but there aren't too many reports east of there yet.

Otherwise in the tropics, Philippe has fallen apart, but another area near Philippe has a chance to develop over the next day or so. This will likely head out to sea.

Off to the east Atlantic an wave crossing to the west has a chance to develop over the next week.


8:30 AM Update
Hurricane Rita has made landfall just east of the Sabine Pass (southeast of Port Arthur Texas) at about 2:30AM EDT, 1;30AM CDT. It will be hours before we know the extent of damage. The direct area of landfall along the Gulf coast beach was sparsely populated but Port Arthur and Beaumont are not all that far inland, but the surge area was rather large. More to come later.

Original Update
Rita is 55 Miles southeast of Sabine Pass and still a category 3 storm, with 930mb of pressure and 125MPH winds.



Storm surge is beginning to be reported in a few areas.

Good luck and God Bless the landfall zone.

Friday - 9PM CDT UPDATE
From the NHC:
THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

Hurricane Rita still a Category III Hurricane and she should make landfall - probably in extreme southwest Louisiana (Cameron Parish) at about 5am CDT - as a Category III Hurricane with sustained winds of at least 115mph. Rita's forward motion now appears to be shifting toward the north northwest since the 8PM CDT bulletin. Hurricane force winds will soon batter the northeast Texas and southwest Louisiana coast with extreme conditions likely in the early morning hours from High Island, Texas, to Garden City, Louisiana, and hurricane force conditions west and east of those points. High storm surge at and east of the landfall point could easily exceed 16 feet since Rita will be approaching almost perpendicular to the coast. Expected isolated wind gusts up to 140mph. Embedded fast moving tornadoes are likely over all of Louisiana and portions of southeastern Texas. Rainfall along east Texas and west Louisiana could easily exceed 15 inches as Rita slows in her northward movement after landfall and creates widespread flooding.

Tropical Depression Philippe is dissipating and NHC has issued its last Advisory on this system.
ED


Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event-Related Links

I've begun recording coastal radar of Rita you can see that here It will remain until Rita is out of range.
Level 3 radar recording courtesy HCW here.

Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management

Radars
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Video/Audio

Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston

Rita news updates from Lake Charles

Lake Charles/Layfette Local Television
KATC TV
KPLC

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Galveston, Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real NHC

Reply and let us know of other links.

Rita

Animated model plots of Rita

Google Map plot of Rita

Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop

Philippe

Animated model plots of Philippe

98L


Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 24 2005 10:52 PM)


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leetdan
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: MikeC]
      #57110 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:06 PM

The 0300Z numbers are out -- 120MPH, 931mb, still moving NW at 12. It almost looks to be going NNW on radar, which would land it just west of Lake Charles.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: leetdan]
      #57112 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:11 PM

I don't know how they managed.
RECON is "inbound NE".

I'm guessing that means they are headed NE.


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ralphfl
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: leetdan]
      #57113 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:11 PM

Looks on radar to be more ragged and moving northwest

This will hit within 3-4 hrs totally and begin to weaken.


To my eye even on IF sat the eye looks worse and worse.

I would think it may weaken some yet and maybe only a cat 2 when it hits if they track it right up till landfall.

BTW is this storm as bad as Andrew when it hit the second time? just wanted to know due to a post early today.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:17 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: leetdan]
      #57114 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:12 PM

Quote:

The 0300Z numbers are out -- 120MPH, 931mb, still moving NW at 12. It almost looks to be going NNW on radar, which would land it just west of Lake Charles.




Wow, there are some really deep burst of powerful convection at this hour!
Radar seems to suggest this is going to take a few more hours to get the eye across the shore... It's batter time.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57116 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:19 PM

Pressure falls the last hour: Beaumont 1.8 mb (to 988.3 mb), Lake Charles 0.3 mb (to 989.5 mb).

Three radars (Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans) all indicate that the eye is open to the south, which is consistent with what the last plane was reporting (will there be another recon flight?... they are running out of time if there is). The feature I had been following as the partial eyewall seems to have accelerated to the WNW and merged with another rainband. I'm not exactly sure where I would put the center of circulation based on the radar at the moment. Regardless, the intense convective bands to the north of the system will be capable of producing very strong winds for anyone in their path. The stronger the convection, the more you get the higher winds aloft mixed down to the surface.


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danielwAdministrator
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Recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57117 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:21 PM

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57118 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:21 PM


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* WARNING FOR ONSET OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO FORCE WINDS FOR...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HURRICANE EYEWALL APPROACHING THE WARNING
AREA.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON PARISH AND JEFFERSON COUNTY PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SAFE ROOM IN YOUR
SHELTER AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A
TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND REMAIN IN YOUR SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE EYEWALL PASSES.



Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:23 PM)


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ralphfl
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #57119 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:22 PM

Quote:

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.





Is this more intense then Andrew or not when it hit?


116 almost down to a cat 2

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:23 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #57120 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:24 PM

Quote:

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.




I'm speculating that the current presentation on radar regarding the SE quadrant of the core circulation field may be not accurate?


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57121 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:26 PM

Also, the eye appears to be contracting in radar imagery, as well as making a very obvious left wobble...let's see if it sticks...If this does, it is bad bad bad...because, obviously it prolongs the assault on Louisiana's Coast before striking farther W!

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Recon [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #57124 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:31 PM

URNT12 KNHC 240324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2524 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 138 deg 115 kt
G. 055 deg 031 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3054 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A Rita OB 02
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 81 / 6NM


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garrison
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Re: Recon [Re: ralphfl]
      #57125 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:31 PM

Just IMHO, too much is being made of the "lower" max winds, this monster is at 931MB, which is the biggest issue, because it is most directly related to the #1 destructive force, storm surge, in spots, 10-15 miles inland will be up in water up to the average person's neck.

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ralphfl
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Re: Recon [Re: garrison]
      #57129 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:38 PM

just looked it up and if this does not get stronger before landfall Andrew would be stronger then this storm when it hits.

Will be interested to see if it does more damage since it should be a little less then Andrew was.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:40 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Winds [Re: garrison]
      #57130 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:40 PM

The max winds will do the secondary damage.
As with Katrina. Rita's storm surge is probably going to be responsible for the primary damage. From the coastline to Interstate 10.
What the water doesn't or can't damage or destroy, Rita's winds will finish off.

Lastest Vortex is showing a circular 25nm EYE.
So you virtually have an F2 Tornado that is 25nm wide.
Nearly the same size as Katrina's Eye.

I heard Stephanie Abrams quote someone this afternoon.
"Hide from the wind, and run from the water"


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oil trader
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Re: Recon [Re: ralphfl]
      #57131 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:42 PM

I have been following this stuff since afternoon. Maybe it is me but posts make me very confused about what is really happening.

I need from some patient poster a very simply synthesis of what is going on to understand at least something:

a) It is right now weakening or strengthening?
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3
c) Track is NW or NNW?
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles?
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places?
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line?

Thanks in advance


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: garrison]
      #57132 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:44 PM

Excellent comment. The recon report listed above states a maximun flight level wind of 117 knots. That translates to a surface wind speed of 121mph - right in the middle of the Category III range. A Cat III is a major hurricane - and they are called 'major' for a reason - the destruction that they can cause can be quite substantial. So I agree - lets not downplay a major hurricane. To do so is not responsible and not acceptable.
ED


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ralphfl
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Re: Recon [Re: oil trader]
      #57133 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:48 PM

Quote:

I have been following this stuff since afternoon. Maybe it is me but posts make me very confused about what is really happening.

I need from some patient poster a very simply synthesis of what is going on to understand at least something:

a) It is right now weakening or strengthening?
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3
c) Track is NW or NNW?
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles?
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places?
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line?

Thanks in advance





A.Status quo maybe a little weaker

B.3 maybe a 2 but 4 very very unlikely very.

c.NW

d.inbetween but a jog may take it somewhere else.

E.Cause not enough winds to put it all out yet.

F. too tired and makes no sense.

G. My own sell your oil stocks they are droping

Ralph. That's pretty good. Go take a nap now.~danielw

F: The High Pressure system that is responsible for steering Rita into the coast. Has weakened. A trough (trof) of Low pressure west of Texas, presently, should move through and nudge Rita out of the area. BUT, the models aren't predicting that to happen for a while. Last check around 24-36 hours. That's probably where NWS is getting the rainfall amounts. One inch per hour for 24-36 hours is Way too much rainfall and water. Especailly when the rivers have crested in the 15-20 foot range.
Excuse the expression. Double Whammy or worst case scenario.~danielw


Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 23 2005 11:58 PM)


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carolt
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Freshwater canal locks [Re: MikeC]
      #57134 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:49 PM

There's interesting reading on the Freshwater Canal Locks (8766072) water level. They dropped off abruptly. Could this indicate a breach of some kind or just a measurement failure?
Also, the barometer was down to ~980 mb at 2112 CST in Calcasieu Pass.

tides online

[edit] oops, corrected number


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Freshwater canal locks [Re: carolt]
      #57135 - Fri Sep 23 2005 11:53 PM

Rita tide guage assemblage by CO-OPS:

http://140.90.121.76/rita.html


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