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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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mojorox
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Re: Extended Models [Re: Sportsfreak1989s]
      #57296 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:45 PM

I just got back yesterday evening from Ocean Springs, Ms. I went with my sis to sift through the rubble of her house. We camped in her yard for a week and she had a boat that no one recognized wedged between her house and the neighbors.

The storm surge had gone over and through her house which is on a street in between two bayous. The street was filled with rubble and furniture and smelt of rotting meat from the refridgerators strewn everywhere.

We caught the first squall lines of Rita on Thurs when we broke camp in the wind and rain. I hope she does not dump any more rain there. When we left the water was coming up the seawall in her back yard.


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HanKFranK
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ignoring the fat lady [Re: mojorox]
      #57297 - Sat Sep 24 2005 11:56 PM

the media types like to sound authoritative whether they really know what they're talking about or not. i don't think lou dobbs has thoroughly checked through what is left down in cameron or vermillion parishes... or has the foggiest how many more tornadoes will form in the lower missisippi valley this evening (heck of a lot of warnings last two hours). how many of y'all remember the newsies in the french quarter the evening after Katrina hit declaring new orleans saved and open for business? that turned out a little wrong, didn't it?
rita's weakening remnant isn't going to stop at texarkana as earlier thought.. right now is slowly decelerating as it moves into sw arkansas. official takes it east across the state and then southward in missisippi. it may just wash out as a frontal boundary approaches, or do the much-advertised jaunt back towards the gulf. there isn't a whole lot of confidence in any of that because of the weak currents and now shallow system.
philippe got deemed history last night, but it's low-level swirl has remained discrete inside of the larger disturbance and has now swung back into the convergence line, with deep convection and probably some slight reintensification. system as a whole actually looks like one of the best candidates for a subtropical storm that i've seen in a while. bet is that NHC just mentions it in the TWO for the next couple of days as it remains steady-state. the wave out near 35w is under a good bit of southerly shear, which probably won't improve a whole lot. firing some deep convection in spite of that, but not very likely to do much. globals aren't getting the pattern down very well, so anything closer in over the next week or two is a lot trickier. the conditions to produce close-in development have shown up in numerous model runs, but not with the kind of consistency needed to really believe in them (though the GFS was showing a caribbean development for a couple of days, it's totally switched the pattern in later runs). best bet is a quiet week coming up, with maybe an odd invest struggling along.
HF 0356z25september


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: ignoring the fat lady [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57298 - Sun Sep 25 2005 12:12 AM

I heard some of the radio news people saying the same thing this morning on the drive home.
Statements like. It was bad but not as bad as we thought. Lot of truth in that statement, but at the time it was said 630AM CDT. First light hadn't broken and the water was still piling up in LA and TX.
Hank refered to the New Orleans episode. Just before the levees began filling the city with water.
I hope the storm surge moves out after high tide. Because Rita dumped copious amounts of rain in her path. And most of it flows into the GOM via the rivers and bayous that were in storm surge.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: MikeC]
      #57306 - Sun Sep 25 2005 07:28 AM

There is not much going on at the moment, so it's Slow for a bit, thankfully.

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Catmando
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: MikeC]
      #57307 - Sun Sep 25 2005 09:06 AM

I saw on TWC a few minutes ago that Rita is moving faster then expected, and it being pushed back into the Gulf is very unlikely. I watched Joe Bastardi predict that yesterday and thought, "If Joe Bastardi is so sure that Rita will go back into the GOM, then I don't think it will happen." I'm fairly new to this board. Is it me, or does it seem you can take all the predictions J.B. gets RIGHT, put them in the butt of a gnat, and still have room to parellel park a winnebago?


"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."-Bob Dylan


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: MikeC]
      #57308 - Sun Sep 25 2005 10:57 AM

JB finally did get it right this year a storm did hin New Orelans. I don't buy into him, but I do find him entertaining.

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Random Chaos
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Lull [Re: Catmando]
      #57309 - Sun Sep 25 2005 11:01 AM

From everything I saw on the 11pm and the 5am, it looks like the NHC was happy for a break. They gave minimal details on anything in the Atlantic, repeating the 5pm TWO at 11pm, then throwing everything that "might" develop in for the 5am TWO. Meanwhile, their 11pm discussion of Rita was minimal and then they passed it off to the HPC for the 5am. Similarly their TWD suffered last night. Maybe they had a post-hurricane "it's over" party?

Anyway, looks like we have a couple systems to watch: Remnants of Philippe that are now absorbed into a broader low. A wave that might develop eventually is near the Carribean. And a wave that looks promising to develop well out in the Atlantic. Wonder how long before the NHC's "break" is over and they have another Atlantic system to track? Given how the season's been going, I'd guess at most only a few days.

--RC


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heynow
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Heading back to Abbeville [Re: MikeC]
      #57310 - Sun Sep 25 2005 11:27 AM

Hey all. We are headed back to Abbeville today to check on our neighbors, homes and our flooded city. Hopefully things aren't too bad.

We rode Rita out in Baton Rouge, which suffered power outages but no major damage.

I will update once I get an internet connection.

Ricky

hope you guys are more than a few ft above sea level... or on an elevated foundation. here's to no water in house.... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Sep 25 2005 01:19 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: Catmando]
      #57311 - Sun Sep 25 2005 12:08 PM

No it's not Bastardi. That was the NHC official forecast that didn't verify. Thank God! Here in S.FL were getting a little tail end trof from Rita this morning. It rained and it wasn't suppose to. Were decades away from better forecasting. Some times the models get it right and some times they don't. Can't blame it on any one person and for those that do go to school and see if you can forecast better. I hope the season is over but something tells me we have one more big pulse coming. Hopefully no landfalls. :?:

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HanKFranK
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last few days of september [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #57312 - Sun Sep 25 2005 01:33 PM

rita may have been the last shot of the month. if anything else does develop it won't be until the middle or more likely late in the week. when things do liven back up it'll be trouble again, though.
first off Rita is moving a lot faster than i'd expected... or the models were predicting just 24 hr ago. the shortwave has the storm right now, and may deposit it to drift further east, or more likely will just take it out off the northeast coast in a couple days as part of a front. it's keeping the rainfall totals down at sane levels and has actually made Rita a boon inland as it's moistened areas that were suffering from drought.
the philippe/98L hybrid system is getting carried off and looking extratropical with time. the models were showing a piece escaping, but it looks like most everything that could develop is going out and leaving a little wake trough behind. the system near 35w continues to be sheared and has little/no model support to develop now.. most take it wnw/nw into the weakness in the ridge east of bermuda and lose it.
globals are getting a little more concerned for a mid/late week evolution in the nw caribbean. euro has been most consistent showing something there, while GFS has moved its feature over that way now, and most of the others are showing lower pressure there but no system. however, the pattern-pulse is setting up to want to kick something off there, with a fairly consistent strengthening of the ridge near the east coast, wedging inland next weekend into the week after. here's how i see the possibilites:
1) the system develops in the middle of the week and pushes more to the n, gets caught on the trough going by prior to the ridge buiding in, and goes out across florida and/or gets trapped off the east coast.
2) the system develops more slowly and misses the connection, drifts up into the gulf and turns w as the ridge builds above it. eventual threat to n mexico/s texas in 10 days or so.
3) the system develops very slowly and drifts into mexico, or remains quasi stationary.
4) the system doesn't develop.
the pattern pulse may try to kick off another system further east as well, as GFS is showing the front system winking out over the gulf (not likely under the paired upper ridge it's showing) and another brewing up right where it was a few days earlier. the culp for this first system is probably the wave currently in the se caribbean. it'll be near jamaica and probably looking more prominent in 3 days time or so. GFS is also showing more action out near the cv islands, but none of its quickbrew systems have developed all year, and it's almost october and past the traditional time for that part of the basin to work, so i'm discounting them until they get much further west. the caribbean and western atlantic are the source regions now.
HF 1733z25september


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WeatherNut
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Re: last few days of september [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57313 - Sun Sep 25 2005 01:38 PM

I dunno...that wave in the eastern caribbean is starting to look a little better organized...might not be a very long break...and most of the rules this season seem to be out the door for the most part

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #57315 - Sun Sep 25 2005 02:40 PM

Yes, that's how I take JB. Entertaining. I truly believe that when tracking storms we need to get our information from as many souces as possible and then form our own opinions on where the storm is heading and what course of action to take.

It's really great to have a break in the action. Let's hope it stays this way for awhile.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #57316 - Sun Sep 25 2005 02:55 PM

I was hoping someone was noticing the caribbean besides me. I am in Central Florida and we have not had a severe threat since last year for a hurricane, but everytime one starts to develop this year I wonder if it will be Tampa Bays turn for real. I am not panicked because I know I am as ready as any one person can be who lives less than 50 miles from the gulf. Going inland is not much further from the shore than I am already. We have seen all the predicted spots along the Gulf get slammed and so far we have been left out of the consequences.We have already practiced and we know not everyone will be able to leave that wants to leave and not everyone who is able to leave will want to leave. The biggest problem in this area are the endless mobile home parks that give a false impression of security. We have at least 6 more weeks of tropical storm season officially and unless Miami freezes over before then, we will get another storm. For those who wish that they could cool the gulf, the atlantic has nor'easters all the time and the winds and snow do damage as well. God Bless America and its Friends.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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HanKFranK
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tornado time [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #57317 - Sun Sep 25 2005 04:04 PM

alabama and mississippi are lit up like christmas trees with tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. that stuff'll be over here tomorrow i guess. not all bad though: hasn't rained here since august 30th and we could use some.
HF 2004z25september


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dave foster
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: leetdan]
      #57320 - Sun Sep 25 2005 05:31 PM

Hi,

I followed Rita all the way on CNBC Europe and boy, was it tense. I was up 'til 4or 5 in the morning every night.
When Rita got into the Gulf as a cat 1 I thought 'here we go again'. And what a ride it was. I couldn't believe how fast she intensified - cat 1 to cat 5 in 26 hours.

I could see it heading for Texas/Louisiana and the oilfields and I thought there was going to be a total catastrope. Coming such a short time after Katrina I was praying that such a long trip across the gulf would take the steam out of her but, for what seemed an eternity, she continued to barrel on. Then 24 hours later she wobbled a bit, dropped to cat 4 and looked like she might be taking a turn to the north.

By Friday at 4am it seemed like Galveston and Huston might be spared and I breathed a sigh of relief. As she approached the coast she further decreased and looked like she might just take the ideal route (if you can call it that) between Galveston and New Orleans. And the rest is history.

I tracked the whole event on Google Earth from Rita entering the Gulf until she made landfall and gained Tropical Storm status.

Take a look at my website for the Google Earth enabling project files and the NHA maps.

http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/index.htm

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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pcola
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #57321 - Sun Sep 25 2005 06:25 PM

The NHC never had Rita coming back 9into the Gulf. That was Bastardi, Mr Entertainment> The NHC has been awesome all year. Accuweather, or "the Penn State University weather dept." has been awful! Why they put them on the news networks makes no sense to me. Even our local statuion here in Pcola shows the NHC track instead of Accuweather, who they subscribe to. They even had Ophelia crossing FL and hitting Gulf Shore AL.. How wrong can you be!

Just as a note of full disclosure, while Accuweather is located in State College, PA, where Penn State is located, the two entities are separate and probably happy that way. -Clark

Edited by Clark (Mon Sep 26 2005 12:44 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: pcola]
      #57322 - Sun Sep 25 2005 06:33 PM

While NHC never had it looping back into the gulf, about half the models did. About half the GFS ensemble runs still show that loop back, though all the others have picked up a decidedly eastward trend. There are presently 4 distinct tracks I'm seeing for the remnants of Rita:

1. Loop back to gulf.
2. Stall
3. Move east and out into the Atlantic over SC/NC/southern VA.
4. Move east and up into the New England area over PA.

It seems that the eastward track is panning out, but whether it takes the southerly or northerly one is something we will have to watch. Since I'm stuck between the two eastward tracks, I'm not sure whether either is better than the other. I'm just hoping we get rain from this thing - going on 3 weeks of no rain now.

--RC


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression [Re: pcola]
      #57323 - Sun Sep 25 2005 07:15 PM

They have JB on because he's entertaining and always is a proponant of the worst case scenario. The media wants guys like this.

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Margie
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Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border [Re: dave foster]
      #57325 - Sun Sep 25 2005 07:49 PM

Your Katrina note on your website, which only discusses NOLA, reflects the problem with what many people like yourself see, by watching and reading the media from both the US and the UK; they did not cover the affected coastal areas, only NOLA, which is not on the coast.

NOLA was not the hardest hit area from Katrina; instead it was the three Louisiana parishes of Plaquemines, St Bernard, and SE portion of St Tammany, and three coastal counties of MS: Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson. This 200 miles of coastline which was completely destroyed received little press, and not a single headline, on any national news media, in the days and weeks afterwards. There were many people in these areas who could have been helped in the first three days after the hurricane, had word gotten out via the media about their plight.

There was a great deal of secondary damage in NOLA due to the failures in the canals of the level system. The media did not differentiate between canals and levees, consequently the failures were all perceived by the public to be levee failures. The canals will most definitely have to be redesigned. Most of the failures had areas where the walls lining the sides of the canals completely buckled. The levees of the city did pretty well even being overtopped by some of the high water, with the exception of the levee south of St Bernard on the MS River, which was hit from floodwaters from both sides. The levees just have to be upgraded because they are old, and raised a little to handle higher waters.

NOAA has taken high-resolution photographs of all of the affected areas from Katrina (as it does for every storm). Here is the link so you can see the large area of coastal damage that the media ignored. Start with the SE tip of LA and work your way around to Mobile AL. You'll be very surprised.

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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LoisCane
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Re: Extended Models [Re: mojorox]
      #57326 - Sun Sep 25 2005 07:50 PM

Smell of rotting meat is bad.. even in Miami in some parts just to drive around areas w/o electric for 5 or 6 days.. people kept saying it smelled like dead animals. Was bad food from fridge and freezer rotting in the mid-day sun.. 95 in the shade.. and asthma and allergies were way up from dealing with all of that

may seem trivial but rotting meat stinks up a place in summer.. even rotting vegetation

and in SW Louisianna.. going to be a big clean up and hope FEMA can find money for them because most didn't have flood insurance..only wind..

Heard some lady say on the news she really wishes a tree or two (lots there) would have fallen on the house, that they were insured for.. this they weren't.

Even though it hadn't flooded in over 40 years.. still is bayou and still does flood .. just like the deep SW in Miami which was just reclaimed from the Glades a few years back.. floods fast in a heavy rain

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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