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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: ralphfl]
      #58759 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:49 PM

The model movement from Tampa to near Fort Meyers and/or Sarasota is like splitting hairs. Doesnt mean anything at this point. I am anxious to see the OOZ runs with the NOAA Data.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: ralphfl]
      #58760 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:51 PM

I really didn't want to post this but I must. ENOUGH ALREADY. Give the mods a break and let's stay on topic in a CIVIL manner. Although I've posted this in reply to Ralph's comment, it goes for ALL those concerned. It's understandable that many of us are quite likely and quite naturally on edge with the potential for a pretty severe storm impacting somewhere in the next few days, but the diatribes really don't help the situation. If the mods want to send this to the happy hunting ground, okay by me, but I wanted to post it before things escalate any further.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: lawgator]
      #58761 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM

and as was said on tv that west if it does happen will delay it going north which gives the low more time to take it east so the track would be more sotuh if it delays going north and also the models do show west early now as it is.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: ralphfl]
      #58762 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM

Quote:

the GDFL moved about 100 miles south....Now it can move back but the idea of anyone saying what part of Florida will get hit if any is pure conjecture.




No sense in getting upset by things others contribute to this forum and I wonder why you are so intent on correcting others.
We are all free to post our thoughts as long as they are not too far out in left field. That to me is what makes coming to a sight like this intersting and fun.
If we were all METS, we probably wouldn't be here in the first place. Most of us can sort out fact from fiction.

If Wilma does wind up coming further North to Tampa Bay, someone will be surprised while others will say, I told you so.
I personally don't trust the models this far out in time.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: ralphfl]
      #58763 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM

It's almost pointless to worry about what the models say at 120 hours, it's nice to know it to be prepared or be aware, but at this point, a shift of 100+ miles will not be out of the question or even unlikely over the next 24 hours. Particularly as the storm behaves in ways that change the initializations of the newer model runs. So, yes, everyone is right. the storm could go to tampa or down through Naples, it could hit the keys or panama city (both of which I think are unlikely, but you never know).

As I said earlier, it's simply a storm and it's still several days away. We will have plenty of time to freak out in the days ahead

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: CoalCracker]
      #58764 - Tue Oct 18 2005 03:58 PM

I agree...the mods are going to be busy enough, we don't need to give them more to worry about.
I don't see where saying that this hurricane could make landfall in Tampa is going out on a limb, Ralph. It IS in the cone of error, as is Key West. If I said, "It's going to hit N.O. ", then everyone would have a valid beef.
Please note: you can ignore any user you want simply by clicking on their screen name and hitting "ignore this user".
I'll be using it again.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #58765 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:02 PM

I don't usually post, just read and learn, and you guys have kept me feeling very well informed this season - but this is scaring me - I'm in Ft. Myers and want to make hotel reservations - but with all of Florida "under the gun" I don't even know where to make them! Can anyone give suggestions? Thanks
pick a place that's inland.. and since you're in fort myers, definitely north. if the storm really worries you then tally or jax, but gainesville/ocala ought to suffice. if you aren't too scared then anywhere in the interior.. say along 441 or us 27 north of okeechobee. might get some bad weather, but probably not as dangerous inland as in coastal areas. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 04:22 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: Margie]
      #58766 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:06 PM

Another critical factor that everyone needs to understand is that IF it indeed gets to major status, especially in the 4/5 range, but still weakens as it goes inland, which some are predicting.... it can still bring with it a much greater surge than expected .... case in point, and perhaps the hurricane which might have saved my life was Ivan... it weaken to a Cat 2/3 from being a strong Cat 4 in the GOM, but brought with it a Cat 4/5 surge (life saving lessoned learned)... and Katrina, which was a powerful Cat 5 but weakened to a Cat 3/4 going inland and still brought with it a super Cat 5 surge... also the angle of the approaching storm will also play a factor in how high the surge is... as well as how big the wind field, and how long that field generates winds in excess of 75 mph.. all contribute to the destructiveness of the surge... I've got a confirmed storm surge of 31 feet in my neighborhood from Katrina.... just be warned, if it does cranks up, just because it winds might weaken somewhat as it approaches land, that doesn't mean the surge is going to be less..... and take it from someone who knows first hand... surge can cause a hell of a lot more damage, destruction and death than just straight line wind.... IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD/SURGE ZONE GET THE HECK OUT... everyone that I've talked to that experience Katrina's surge WILL NEVER experience another one first hand... and I've talked to quite a few

Frank P, still homeless and waiting for that darn FEMA trailer....


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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 10
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: Frank P]
      #58767 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:09 PM

Frank P., Excellent post. Good luck putting your "home" or should I say "life" back together.

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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: jeangfl]
      #58768 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:10 PM

Orlando is where most people come.

Usually the convention Visitors Bureau will start a hot line detailing where available rooms are. The number to find out about it is 407-354-5555.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 365
Vortex message [Re: abyrd]
      #58769 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:14 PM

970mb, closed eye, ragged eyewall, and "very small wind center":

URNT12 KNHC 182009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/19:54:00Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1169 m
D. 55 kt
E. 335 deg 020 nm
F. 080 deg 075 kt
G. 348 deg 010 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A Wilma OB 06
MAX FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 19:50:40 Z
VERY SMALL WIND CENTER


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native
Weather Guru


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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: jeangfl]
      #58770 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:15 PM

Yes, how about Las Vegas?? Just kidding...trying to lighten it up in here for a minute! That's an extremely good question being that Wilma stands to affect quite a bit of an area. Are you making reservations because you live on the coast and are afraid of the surge? Do you live inland but are afraid your house might not be the best place to stay? I'm not sure what your reasons are but perhaps, maybe, are there any friends or relatives you could stay with if need be? That may ultimately be your best bet....you could come to my house...I have plenty of freezer goods!

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Vortex message [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #58771 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:17 PM

Winds still seem to be lagging the pressure... 75 knots at 850 mb corresponds to 60 kts at the surface with the usual reduction (20% reduction from 850mb, 10% reduction from 700 mb). Obviously, they may find some stronger winds as they keep sampling the storm.

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: native]
      #58772 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:18 PM

Just a bit here from NWS MLB AFD this afternoon

FORECAST DEPENDANT UPON UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. TRACK SCENARIOS RANGE FROM NE MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY OF 2004 FROM SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANVERAL/DAYTONA...TO
ENE MOVEMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA. MOVEMENT WILL BE
DICTATED FOR THE MOST PART BY APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. IF
TROUGH IS SHARP...TC MOTION SHOULD BE MORE NE-WARD...WHILE BROADER
AMPLITUDE/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ENE-WARD
TRACK. AT THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO / NHC FORECAST...IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...ENTERING PENINSULA ALONG SE
COAST...PASSING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND EXITING ALONG SOUTHEAST
COAST. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION
OF THE TC AS IT APPROACHES/REACHES THE STATE. THUS...DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL...SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY...I.E. 6 HOUR MOVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST COAST. THAT
SAID...ANY WEAKENING OF TC INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY BE COMPENSTATED
FOR BY FAST FORWARD MOTION...WITH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND
AND COASTAL WIND EVENT FOR AREAS NORTH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF LAND AND MARINE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. EVENT IMPACT IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS AWAY...SO
MUCH CAN CHANGE...STAY TUNED.

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: jeangfl]
      #58773 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:19 PM

Jean,

Well, I live in Cape Coral, and for what it's worth, I've booked a room in Ocala about 220 miles north of here based on the official and unofficial information I've seen to date. But that's still within the current cone, and with HF progging Crystal River as his current choice for the northernmost landfall, Ocala may not be the best place to be but it's still way too early to tell. As you know the problem with Florida is there aren't too many places to go or roads to use with a storm crossing our skinny state at an angle. Sort of "darned if you do" and "danged if you don't" when you try to make plans in advance. Might not be until Thursday late afternoon before the NHC has a better handle on Wilma's track, but she'll likely be a large storm with impacts felt well away from the landfall point. Anyway, that's my three cents worth (which isn't worth much unfortunately).


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Vortex message [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #58774 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:22 PM

I know...970. But I saw the comment on the small windfield, and the weak temp diff, and this is what I thought...the dry air is still an inhibiting factor. But as long as the mercury keeps dropping, then watch out for intensification and for winds to catch up to the pressure drop, if Wilma does get to the pools of warmer water, and shear is favorable. Remember dry air dogged Katrina and her winds remained quite low compared to the pressure drops, until she hit the warmer deep water.

BTW sat is back up and she's moving W.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: abyrd]
      #58775 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:22 PM

Quote:

Orlando is where most people come.

Usually the convention Visitors Bureau will start a hot line detailing where available rooms are. The number to find out about it is 407-354-5555.




Not to get off topic here, but if you are considering Orlando try to get on the Disney property. They have their own power source and sometimes when the rest of Orlando is without electricity, the Disney compound still has power.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Just some thought....yea right... [Re: CoalCracker]
      #58776 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM

Quote:

I really didn't want to post this but I must. ENOUGH ALREADY. Give the mods a break and let's stay on topic in a CIVIL manner. Although I've posted this in reply to Ralph's comment, it goes for ALL those concerned. It's understandable that many of us are quite likely and quite naturally on edge with the potential for a pretty severe storm impacting somewhere in the next few days, but the diatribes really don't help the situation. If the mods want to send this to the happy hunting ground, okay by me, but I wanted to post it before things escalate any further.




THANK YOU!!!!! I don't even come here very often any more because of the drama. I miss the accurate information I get from the guys but some of the drama on here in the past few months is way too much to handle.

Back to the storm.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58777 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM

An eyewall dropsonde in the NW quadrant recorded 64 knot winds at the surface and 65 knot winds at 850mb, so the usual reduction from FL winds may not be valid in this case. That would suggest 70-75 knot intensity based on the max 75 knot winds recorded at flight-level if they want to extrapolate the dropsonde wind profile to the other observations.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Posts: 184
Re: Vortex message [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #58778 - Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM

A cold front is what would be sending Wilma over Fl right? From what I'm reading at various other sources they're calling for a doozy...serious cold air in places & a big cool down for Fl...finally!

My question is with tornados...I know, can't predict those suckers...but the majority of fronts that come into Fl bring stormy weather...how will or will this react with Wilma? Will the tornado chance be higher? Just seems it will be a nasty ride no matter what Cat she comes in at.


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