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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest
      #59815 - Wed Oct 19 2005 10:46 PM

6:45AM
Wilma's forecast has been slowed down, now with a landfall prediction in Florida for Sunday rather than Saturday. It is also still moving west northwest, but generally on track with the forecast. It may approach the Yucatan and clip that, causing some weakening of the system. It's very likely we won't have a good idea of a US landfall point until Friday evening or Saturday.



More to come later today.


Original Update
Hurricane Wilma continues to move West Northwest this evening, and the curve back to the north and northwest is still expected for southwest Florida on Saturday or Sunday. The motion has not slowed down as of yet.

Wilma has been downgraded to a Category 4 storm, very oddly still with a pressure at 894 mb. This is likely a continued fluctuation in intensity based upon eyewall transformations. If it interacts more with the Mexican coastline along the Yucatan it would weaken it more. Best case for the folks in the Yucatan is if it stays more offshore, however this would be worse for those in Florida. There are Hurricane Warnings up along the Yucatan Peninsula.

Folks in the cone of uncertainty will need to watch and make plans if action is needed. Listen to local officials and news media for more information in your particular area.



The current forecast track suggests an extreme southwest florida (south of Naples) track across the state. However there is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the exact track, so those in the cone will need to watch, as stated before. Potentially the pressure gradient may cause winds to be high north of the landfall point as well.

More to come later tonight and tomorrow.

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.


(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.


Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.


Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page


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Colleen A.
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #59830 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:08 PM

Okay...looks like the GFDL is back on track. As mentioned in the 9:30pm update on the main page, it appears that it was a fluke.
I don't care where you are in Florida: please keep apprised of this storm because like we just saw, things can change in just a matter of hours. The models seem to be in better alignment then previously. This is extremely important at this time.
It is also expected to regain Cat 5 status again.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59831 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:09 PM

894mb Category 4. There is something wrong with this picture!

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Margie
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #59832 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:10 PM

Quote:

Is the fact that we have had three cat 5's in one season a record also? I haven't confirmed that yet.



Yes. Wilma has set or tied a lot of records in addition to that one: first "W" storm, tied 1933 record for number of storms for a season, tied 1995 for number of major hurricanes, fastest intensification for both pressure and winds, lowest pressure ever measured in ATL basin.

Evening everybody.

Waves at buoy 42056 have started to go over 20 feet now. This will be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours. I'm not sure how long it will report back once Wilma gets close, passing west of the buoy. If Wilma deviates to the east of the projected track (not likely) things would be immensely more interesting, as she'd intensify and the eye would go fairly near.

Oddly, Wilma is looking remarkably healthy and well-organized for being in an ERC. She maintains a continuity especially in the strong core, and continues the same rhythm of increasing/decreasing convection and size, and continues to maintain a uniform "buzzsaw" shape. The eye still maintains a very distinct appearance even while filling in. In an odd way she still seems to be very steady state. She does look to have dropped down to a Cat 4 now, but likely to still be maintaining a very low pressure.

Maybe it is just that the eyewall replacement is happening very very slowly (Wilma has taken her time with just about everything).

There have been a lot of comments about wobbling, changes in direction, but Wilma is moving very consistently. Her movement is oscillating in a way that is described as cycloidal. Does anyone remember the drawing toy Spirograph? A lot of the patterns were all generated by cycloidal movement. To see this type of movement, ake a pencil and cut out a circle from cardboard, punch a hole in it that is off-center. Now cut a curve into the remaining piece, and lay it on a piece of paper, stick the pencil in the hole of the circle, and then rotate (not slide) the circle along the curve. The movement the pencil traces out onto the paper is cycloidal. The movement of the moon about the sun is similar.

So...all intense hurricanes have these movements, however sometimes they are very small and not perceptible. With Wilma the movement is quite large, making it noticeable on satellite images, but it is not particularly unusual. The technical term that was mentioned in one of the discussions is "trochoidal oscillations" and so if you are interested in finding out about why more intense hurricanes are prone to this type of movement, goggle it with the word hurricane.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #59833 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:11 PM

ok. 11 pm disc. is out. Interesting they are starting to talk about possibly going extratropical after 96 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.disc.html

Edited by dolfinatic (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:17 PM)


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mattgator
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #59835 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:15 PM

I am a new poster but have been obsessed with watching storms mostly because my shutter company has not yet come through (in Miami). Can anyone answer this basic question: When the NHC issues a statement that says " Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center" are they referring to the diameter of that windfield (i.e 70 miles) or the radius (i.e. 140 mile windfield)? I just have trouble visualizing hurricane force winds with a 140 mile swath.

Many thanks and let's hope for "rapid weakening"


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: dolfinatic]
      #59836 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:16 PM

11pm discussion is out.

ERC underway - new 40nm eye forming around the existing 4nm eye. That expains the satellite appearence and the 894mb pressure at only a Category 4. Ok, I see this ERC finishing by morning probably (though NHC says it might not be until tomorrow night). I wonder if it will end in time for the diurnal cycle to help it recover or not.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: mattgator]
      #59837 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:17 PM

Mattgator: They refer to the radius.

This is a good visualization - the inner most circle is hurricane force:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=24

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Oct 19 2005 11:18 PM)


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AgentB
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: dolfinatic]
      #59838 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:19 PM

Been watching Wilma for the past few days just like everyone else. She looks to be close to where I figured she would be at this time, maybe a bit west if anything. One thing though is that I figured a more pronounced turn would have begun by now. Instead she still appears to be stair-stepping. In my opinion this lends a bit more validity to Wilma actually making some sort of landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Margie
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: Random Chaos]
      #59839 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:20 PM

Quote:

894mb Category 4. There is something wrong with this picture!



Well, remember they don't want to make the same mistake they made earlier today, picking 900mb when recon later found she had only gone up to 892mb.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Weird Signs [Re: mattgator]
      #59840 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:21 PM

I know that many people have talked about weird signs/things that animals/insects do before a storm approaches/hits. I have seen numerous bull ants walking across my floor tonight. I have never seen these things in my house in 15 years here. Weird or a sign of things to come down the road? We will know in a few days.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: dolfinatic]
      #59841 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:22 PM

ive been following all this season and iwas wondering what does extratropical mean? thanks becky

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: FlaMommy]
      #59842 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:26 PM

if i remember correctly a tropical system is a warm core system and a extratropical system is a cold core one.

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Londovir
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Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: Margie]
      #59844 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:27 PM

Does anyone happen to have a good link where loop satellite data is archived? I'm particularly interested in a looped animation of the eye movement from earlier today.

I'm trying to work up a unit for my Calculus class that works with Prolate Cycloids, which is the class of curve the path of the eye moved today. (Prolate cycloids are a special subclass of trochoids, as everyone has been mentioning on here) It's very rare to get your hands on a classic real-life problem like this (thank goodness!), and I want to preserve it somehow for use in mathematics academia.

If someone has a site or source, please PM me at your convenience.

In the meantime, they've moved all the local football games to Thursday night, so they're taking it seriously as far as that goes - plus the EOCs around are on alert status, monitoring and ready to go into motion. I'm glad to see it's not complete "snoozeville" with the planned southern path.

--------------------
Londovir


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Weird Signs [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #59845 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:29 PM

I have heard the weirdest sounds from some kind of bird or animal outside my house the last couple of nights.Never heard anything like this in my life,really strange sound.I will be getting a hotel room tommorow in my area just to play it safe.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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into the crystal ball [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59846 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:36 PM

Good discussion at 11:00. Interesting insights. Almost looks like a play it safe forecast. I have no problem with that. Still a lot of time to shift this track further north. This will still keep S Fla awake. Tampa should not relax yet either. I don't think the track gets up that high; but the effects sure could. This may be one of those systems that you can not say anything certain until it actually happens. The slower track buys some extra time. Also makes me wonder if JB may actually be on it this time. Only time will tell.

--------------------
Jim


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evergladesangler
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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: Rasvar]
      #59847 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:50 PM

The 00Z GFS is starting to come in and it's shifted more west to Yucatan (from its last run) so far.

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Colleen A.
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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: Rasvar]
      #59849 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:53 PM

Well, here's how fast things can change from 5pm to 11pm. Denis Phillips is now saying that he "thinks" that landfall may occur somewhere between Ft. Myers and Naples...although if the turn happens later, it could still come closer to TB. He is also saying that "you may want to think about making hotel reservations...the further north the better, because if you go inland, you may see the same effects we had with Charley."
Now, at 5pm, NONE of this was even mentioned by him; in fact, he was pretty much believing that it could go through the the Florida Straights and have no effect on our weather at all. That was ALL because of one wacko model. Even his Titan model is further west than it was at 5pm.
Just goes to show you...things can change on a dime, and don't bite into one big giant piece of stinky cheese. If anyone watched the 5-6pm edition of his "forecast" and didn't watch the 11pm edition, they may be under a false sense of security. Personally, I think that is completely irresponsible on the met's part. All other local mets were not convinced that the GFDL model was "all there".
Stay tuned, stay prepared and ALWAYS stay alert.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Sneakbridge
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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59850 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:57 PM

Always the rush to be the first one to have the 'correct' forecast. Dennis is really spirited, you have to give him that.

Bull Ants - Fought them the last two nights entering my house as well... I think there is a time of year they travel around more and might not be hurricane related though I'd figure...

I think the NHC has once again done a tremendous job so far.


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Rdietch
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Re: into the crystal ball [Re: Colleen A.]
      #59851 - Wed Oct 19 2005 11:58 PM

Where can i see the GFS 00Z run as its coming in.Anyone have a link to it?

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