lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
|
|
Quote:
Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has , , gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis
(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
That still shows the 06 Zulu run for . Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...
|
Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
I heard an interview last night with one of the pilots who fly into these storms. It's amazing what they do. He said that we are the only country that does this and our technology is far superior to anyone elses. ...and still they can only narrow landfall down to a 500 mile ranfge at this time.
|
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
|
|
Florida has had some hellacious freezes during active hurricane periods. The 1830s & 1840s were one such period. In 1837 I believe it was, Charlotte Harbor froze over. The 1880s & 1890s were another period of hurricane activity, and the winters were awful. The freezes of 1894-1895 pretty much destroyed the citrus industry in North Florida. It's snowed twice in Central Florida during my lifetime.
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 89
|
|
GFDL going crazy again?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
|
Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
2:00 is out. Moving NW at 5. Moved .2 N 0 W last 3 hours
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
Appears that has a more NW component now on the latest Vis Sat loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
TG
-------------------- Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
|
Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
I wonder if it thinks it will miss the next front coming through? Or, since I believe its the same time run as yesterday, if its looking at the same information?
Hhmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
Man, that's not making sense. It's got the center not breeching 20N for 30 hours (20.2-87.7 to be exaxt). If you look at the loop it can't take that long. Can it? If so, I'm going away for the weekend and will track her next week..LOL!
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Here's a link that I particularily like for updated, animated model runs - it has , , gdfl, among others:
Experimental forecast- Tropical Cyclone Genesis
(in case this doesn't show, here's the url http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
That still shows the 06 Zulu run for . Frank made reference to the 12. Wondering where that one can be found...
Here's the 12Z link - pretty close to forecast track - maybe a tad north.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
-------------------- RJB
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 89
|
|
By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?
|
Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Quote:
By going north now if that holds does that mean more south track or north track into Florida?Would think more south since it would be back to where it was the other day no?
Depends on the speed. Quicker North now, longer before she turns NE. That would mean a Central FL hit. Slower North or stall would mean a Southern FL or keys hit. Although I think it will maintain a Western component and get very close to the Yuc.
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
GFDL is always shaky in direction after 72hrs so its feeling the trough racing thru to its N and dragging it east toward Cuba. Not out of the question but I disregard anything it shows in movement after 72hrs.
Data went into the 12Z models today from the NOAA Jet,,, I feel they will adjust alittle more on each mission data. The Data (from what I know and could be wrong) only shows what is going on ahead and around the system, such as in the Gulf, thing is though, conditions will change in the gulf in 12 hrs so the with the slow movement of her and changing conditions,, the long term movement wont be the same. Anotherwords, the data is good on in her short term motion. Pretty much its only good for fast moving systems cause the enviroment changes, especially with a trough coming down over the weekend,, same steering flow will change. Right now we see its mainly light S-N steering over the Gulf so there is nothing to push her if she gets N of the Yucitan till the trough digs in, this is shown by the models..but when the next NOAA jet goes in and the 1 after that,,those inputs will go into the next 00Z and 12Z runs in the future and we will again see the short term motion of the enviroment.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu Oct 20 2005 02:12 PM)
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 94
|
|
Need to wait and see what the models do with the more northward component. If you look at a surface map of the Southeast the ridge overtop of is steadily weakening allowing her to turn more to the north. The next set of runs should be interesting.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
this NW movement has been anticipated for days, at first it was suppose to cross western cuba. Its moving NW but also alot are seeing the eye expand some with the dry air patch that went into the center.
|
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
|
|
SPECIAL DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1510 UTC THU OCT 20 2005
THE 12Z HAS COMPLETED. THE HAS BEGUN WITH 32
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP. ALSO INCLUDED WERE 10 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS AND 17
NOAA G-IV DROPSONDE REPORTS.
12Z RAOB RECAP...
RIW/72672 - PURGED WINDS 785 MB AND UP...TOO FAST/ERRATIC.
DRA/72387 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.
PASY/70414 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR .
LWX/72403 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR .
TUS/72274 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
|
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 89
|
|
The 2pm Bam takes it into the Yucatan deep then out and across south Florida over Miami.
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
This was on the HPC:
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE FATE OF EMERGING FROM THE CARRIBEAN...
BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING MUCH SLOWER WITH SYSTEM...
SCENARIO OF 00Z AND DEPICTING SUPER STORM COMBO WITH
MID LEVEL VORTEX IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. STRENGTH OF
TROF ON LAST RUNS OF INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL COLD SNAP FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
Will someone tell me what a super storm combo with mid level vortex is? Sounds like it's a good thing it's becoming less likely!
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
They are talking about a perfect storm type off N.England.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:12 PM)
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.
|
jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
|
|
It seems to me that in the past few frames is moving north of NW. IF, IF, this is the case, and IF this trend continues for a significant period of time, would it stand to reason that the storm will make it further north before it makes its turn to the east?
|