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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Wilma Moving Northwest
      #60199 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:03 PM

3 AM Update
Wilma showing a slight, 1mb drop in pressure, between 1 and 3 AM EDT. Minor increase in her wind speed. Biggest change has been in her heading. Now estimated to be near NNW.

8PM Update
Wilma has winds sustained around 150MPH, and is still moving northwest at 8. It appears that a landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel is likely, bringing near high end category 4 conditions to the resort area that has already been hit by Emily earlier this year. It is still possible for Wilma to just graze the Yucatan, the overnight hours will tell this story.





The GFDL model suggests it may slow or stall out over the Yucatan bringing prolonged bad conditions to the Cozumel and Cancun areas. This would be better for Florida (relatively a cat 2 or 3 hurricane still would likely approach and cause a lot of havoc), but very very bad for those towns. Time will tell here, watching the Cancun Radar for movement may be an extended exercise, if the radar holds. This may slow the eventual Florida impact by another day or two into Monday or even Tuesday if this verifies.

It may start to head more toward the north northwest as well, and miss the Yucatan to the east, this is what we are watching for tonight.


Original Update
Hurricane Wilma is moving Northwest, still a Category 4 hurricane this afternoon. This update is mainly to clear the responses and to start a new discussion.

However, many are asking where in Florida Wilma will strike, meteorologist Ed Dunham in the met blog below talks about it some, but I am holding off until Wilma enters the Gulf.


The National Hurricane Center's forecast is pretty solid, but the cone is large for Florida. Anywhere along the western coast of Florida still needs to watch this system.

Wilma looks to be poised to restrenghten a bit tonight. If it does, then it has a shot at regaining Category 5 status for a bit, before getting close to the Yucatan and weakening once again. The timeline is still late Sunday for the system to impact Florida.

More to come later

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.


(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.


Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.


Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 08:39 AM)


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Sneakbridge
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60204 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:15 PM

The NHC has done such an outstanding job all season. Max Mayfield is great director.

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Major Sharpe
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60205 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:17 PM

At this point, it seems that anything is possible. The tracking for this storm is just too erratic. I was in the school of thought yesterday that believed it was going to track further north before it was all over. Then, the GFDL, GFC and BAMM went whacky, and the NHC revised its track back to landfall south of Naples (such as existed 24 hours before).

It would not surprise me if it ended up coming in at Punta Gorda/Venice/Sarasota, and following a Charley track.

Sharpe


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Major Sharpe]
      #60207 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:18 PM

Quote:

At this point, it seems that anything is possible. The tracking for this storm is just too erratic. I was in the school of thought yesterday that believed it was going to track further north before it was all over. Then, the GFDL, GFC and BAMM went whacky, and the NHC revised its track back to landfall south of Naples (such as existed 24 hours before).

It would not surprise me if it ended up coming in at Punta Gorda/Venice/Sarasota, and following a Charley track.

Sharpe





Actually, if you look at the wv imagery through the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html channel, you can see a wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley... In concert with said ridge erosion is what I believe is inducing the turn from WNW to NW - per the intermediate advisory... More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)... Anyway, I'm starting to hunch that this may pull a fast one on the 12Z guidance and never come onshore the Yucatan - might get pretty darn close...

I'm also wondering if the 12Z guidance isn't strong enough with the vort max coming into the middle Miss. Valley area in general..


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60208 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:19 PM

It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.

(reposted from old thread)


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Major Sharpe
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60210 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:19 PM

Good insight. I've been reading both your postings, and you seem to have a solid knowledge base. I suppose only time will tell.

Sharpe

Edited by Major Sharpe (Thu Oct 20 2005 07:21 PM)


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Joshua
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #60211 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:21 PM

Max Mayfield is a great director, with one downfall: his publicity stance. He isn't really big with getting on TV and telling people to get their shit together and get their houses ready for a major hurricane on the SW Florida coast. Otherwise, yes, he is a relatively good director

Looks as though the ERC is over, as well.


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TinaB
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60213 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:21 PM

Quote:

More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)...




Ah...glad to see I'm not the only one who uses that technique. I've also been known to use a marker on my computer screen I'd concur by that method that the last few frames in the loop seem to be more NW close to NNW. But again it could be another wobble...who knows with this one!


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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60214 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:22 PM

It is moving 5mph it is hardly moving.If the spped does not pick up its only going to go 100 miles in the next day.The NHC forcast is for this thing to go slow NOT stop but crawl which it seems to be doing.The north motion is expected and if it still goes only 5mph it has lots of time to catch the NE track when it gets to 20o if you look at the model runs it does not stall out till 20o so has time to go before the stall anyway.

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Sneakbridge
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Joshua]
      #60215 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:24 PM

I was able to eat dinner with him and Steve Lyons and their famlies at a hurricane conference in the Bahamas. They are not only excellent at what they do, but they are quality people with great families as well. Very approachable and just sincerely nice people.

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iuhoosiers
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60216 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:26 PM

It shouldn't really surprise anyone that it is now moving in a NW. the forcast track shows at about this time it would be turning to the NW. Right now i believe is running quite well compared to the track

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60217 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:26 PM

Quote:

It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.

(reposted from old thread)




Yeah, that's all certainly valid... I wasn't really commenting in deference to accuracy regarding "guidance track" - per say.. (though it may sound that way )

The point was that if the models are perhaps too weak with the mid-lvl disturbance in the heart land, then maybe this initial pull N is under-estimated. So...basically, we're in agreement, although I am beginning to want to correct track guidance slightly right now that we are on the topic.


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Sneakbridge
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60218 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:27 PM

I still don't see Wilma (the eye) missing the Yucatan at this point though.

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Joshua
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #60219 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:27 PM

I've met Max before as well, and he is a great guy. He just needs to be more open with the media, and talk out more. That's what officials are SUPPOSED to be doing in a tense situation like this. I applaud the NHC for doing the media press conference yesterday at 16:45, and I think that helped a bit to let people understand what was going on.

Summary: you have to let people know what's going on to save lives.


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funky
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #60220 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:32 PM

me neither. in fact, it looks like it might put cancun on the strong side (right now the north side) of the storm, which would be catastrophic. is there any live coverage down there right now? i would be scared to death right now, even in a cat 5 structure.

Quote:

I still don't see Wilma (the eye) missing the Yucatan at this point though.




--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Rdietch]
      #60221 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:33 PM

Quote:

It is moving 5mph it is hardly moving.If the spped does not pick up its only going to go 100 miles in the next day.The NHC forcast is for this thing to go slow NOT stop but crawl which it seems to be doing.The north motion is expected and if it still goes only 5mph it has lots of time to catch the NE track when it gets to 20o if you look at the model runs it does not stall out till 20o so has time to go before the stall anyway.




Yes, well, let's hope NHC's forecast is correct then!
...It's just a hunch, but I'm wondering if this won't be going like...almost due N by midnight at perhaps a slightly greater speed...

I'm basing this on physical observation alone - which can be misleading sometimes I admit... Basically, to re-iterate...
- I believe there is a wind maxim punching east from TX to the lower Mississippi Valley.
- Ridge erosion is observed over the SE U.S.
- Cirrus canopy is beginning to be pulled much more concertedly N and NE along the SE Gulf of Mexico, which be an indication of 1 and/or 2 things: 1) Shear is about to increase in the area; 2) Steering field may becoming established.

Granted, the short term N component is said to be predicted - that's fine - but my contention based on these physical observations is simply ....."to what degree correction is that N motion being assumed?"

that's all..


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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Joshua]
      #60223 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:36 PM

I thought someone posted the 12Z Had the NOGAPS coming in around Sarasota? i know someone posted that from the last thread, but it just came out on http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation, and it has it coming in around FT Myers.

Wish people would look at it better before they post as i was going by that the Gaps was showing a Sarasota hit when in reality its showing a more south Ft Myers hit.


still only 1 model but a good one.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60224 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:38 PM

I would agree that a further right track is possible. There is probably a wider range of possible scenarios in the short-term than there would be with most systems. A slowdown at some point soon seems inevitable, and the possibility for errors in the direction heading of the storm increase when the motion slows. Normally, that wouldn't be as big of a deal, but even a slight deviation in direction at this point will make a big difference for landfall point in the Yucutan and even whether it will make landfall there in the first place.

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60226 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:39 PM

000
URNT12 KNHC 201910Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2415 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 089 DEG 145 KT
G. 350 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 13 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3041 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A Wilma OB 3
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION


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TampaDon
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60227 - Thu Oct 20 2005 07:41 PM

Long time lurker here, but just a simple question. I seem to remember during last years storm season and some of the previous storms this year, that an appearance of elongation in one direction or another was a precursor of a change in general movement in that direction. I was just watchhing CNN and looking at the IR images in the background and see what I think is N-S elongation of the overall image. I could be seeing things, but if this is the case, could this be the beginning of the long awaited change in movement to the NW and North?

Thanks in advance


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