Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | (show all)
KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Models?? [Re: maddie]
      #61264 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:35 AM

Collier County has another emergency mtg this morning so we will be watching for the latest from them as well as the local mets. Guess TWC will be moving their reporters down closer to Marco. Just saw a clip from Fort Myers. The waiting game is frustrating.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Safe Area?? [Re: danielw]
      #61265 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:37 AM

Most of the Weather Service Products that I viewed last night. Recommended evacuation to a location...NORTH Of Orlando.

HURRICANE Wilma LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 (edited~danielw)

EVACUATING
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE
NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME
DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS IS IN EFFECT AS OF 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION
REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS LATER THIS
MORNING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSEYW&max=51


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: danielw]
      #61266 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:39 AM

Thank you , I appreciate the heads up ...I think I am just going to stick with you guys and NHC from now on..I wish I would have known about this website last year......

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61268 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:50 AM

I am in St Pete and at this point I am not going to bother preparing the house here. If things change I think there will still be plenty of time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61269 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:55 AM

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61270 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:00 AM

Quote:

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?




Well Maddie, how many times have we been promised a cold front this time of year and it stalls out? They get our hopes up for cooler weather and then it falls through.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61271 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:05 AM

Pretty much what I was thinking........then I guess my next question would be , if that happens , then what with Wilma? Think I am more nervous than usual given the last minute shift with Charlie last year....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61272 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:15 AM

I understand that the LBAR is an older, less reliable model but I amazed how consistent it has been (wrong or not). Can someone explain what it is that causes this model to change very little over this whole period? It just seems to have a thing for Tampa!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Track and Watches [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #61275 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:31 AM

New Thread Up!!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #61279 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:57 AM

I've noticed the same thing. Several of the variables point to Tampa, and at times the LBAR isnt alone in its conclusions. Historically October storms come ashore between...say...Cedar Key and Naples. So LBAR is definitely in the ball park. If you watch NHC over the years they tend to pick the path in the middle of the model cluster. And the storms generally stray at the last minute. I suspect, too, that something else is at work here...something unsaid. Last year NHC had Charley making a direct hit on Tampa. Many people fled to Orlando. Guess what? The storm went through Orlando. Many of us were annoyed with NHC. Me, because my pregnant daughter spent the night in a closet right beneath where the eye went across. Me, because another daughter and grandchildren left Tampa and went to Bartow where they ran into the storm. Being an old fool, I stayed home...because the storms always go someplace else. But Wilma makes me nervous. What I fear is NHC getting it wrong (again) and the local clowns waiting too long to evacuate people. I have to testify in a trial on Monday, and I cant get a straight answer out of anyone if the courthouse will be open. It wont be pretty if Wilma turns to the north.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 801 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 73152

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center